ATD 2017 Draft Thread IV

[jarek]

Apparently it cuts both ways, because this is the exact opposite of what HT18 has been saying - that if Gainey was the one trying to score and checkers were checking him, he could come out even lower.

That's kinda why I think situation/competition is a wash or at least not nearly as important as TOI itself.

If Gainey - Jarvis - Roberts, for example, were being asked to score and played 1st line minutes, then they would have a tough time, yes.

However, there is no way in a million years that Gainey would be put on a line like that and then asked to score.

It would more likely be..

Gainey - Lemaire - Lafleur

Or..

Shutt - Jarvis - Lafleur

Etc.

 

[seventieslord]

If Gainey - Jarvis - Roberts, for example, were being asked to score and played 1st line minutes, then they would have a tough time, yes.

However, there is no way in a million years that Gainey would be put on a line like that and then asked to score.

It would more likely be..

Gainey - Lemaire - Lafleur

Or..

Shutt - Jarvis - Lafleur

Etc.

Right, like I said, it was an absurd example.

But the point is we now have people essentially saying "if Gainey was on a 1st line he'd be facing top checkers instead of defensively inept scorers so it might be even harder for him to score" and "if Gainey didn't have to worry about checking so closely it would be even easier for him to score", just a few posts apart.

Which is correct? It reminds me of the old argument about bad team scorers. "He'd do even better on a good team with some help".... "no, he'd have less of a role, would no longer be 'the man' and wouldn't be fed for points like he is now"... and the opposite arguments for and against good team scorers. which is correct? Maybe neither, maybe they both cancel out.

 

[MadArcand]

Whalers round out their starting lineup with Igor Liba, LW

 

[markrander87]

I think the tie breaker would be the type of linemates they played with. Guys like Benn would have obvious better offensive linemates compared to a shut down guy like Gainey.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I think the tie breaker would be the type of linemates they played with. Guys like Benn would have obvious better offensive linemates compared to a shut down guy like Gainey.

And face superior defensemen, and the circle goes on...

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Here's how I see it...

Real life 1st/2nd liners playing on an ATD 3rd line:
- Less ice-time than real life
- Playing against similar caliber defenders as they did in real life
- Linemates strength in the ATD vs. real-life will really vary depending on the player and how the line is built. Using my own player as an example, I think Damphousse and Ward are a better set of linemeates than Kopitar has ever had in real life. This would not be true for a guy like Dave Taylor.

Real life 3rd-liners playing on an ATD 3rd line:
- Same ice-time as in real life
- Playing against stronger defenders than they did in real life
- Playing with better linemates (the degree of which can vary quite a bit)

 

[895]

There's a player that constantly gets taken way too early because of homerism but I think has finally fallen to place where he's good value.

Wendel Clark

 

[seventieslord]

There's a player that constantly gets taken way too early because of homerism but I think has finally fallen to place where he's good value.

Wendel Clark

nope.... still bad value!

(Clark was my favourite player growing up)

 

[ResilientBeast]

nope.... still bad value!

(Clark was my favourite player growing up)

Bright side he's on a fourth line which I think is an okay spot for him

 

[seventieslord]

And face superior defensemen, and the circle goes on...

better linemates do outweigh better competition though, there's no question about that. You move a Habs 3rd liner up to the top line, unsuited for the role or not, he starts scoring more, he doesn't "struggle against the top defensemen".

 

[seventieslord]

Bright side he's on a fourth line which I think is an okay spot for him

Yeah he has to be a 4th liner.

I was looking forward to maybe taking him in the MLD.

 

[895]

nope.... still bad value!

(Clark was my favourite player growing up)

Hmm really?

I suppose there are players who are better defensively or offensively, but for a 4th line banger, there isn't many players who are better?

 

[Sturminator]

We've already discussed this, and you are correct.

There is no objective way to adjust each player's score for linemates and usage. Everyone is going to have to come to their own determination regarding this.

As seventies has already noted, these arguments cut both ways. Top line guys typically have fewer checking responsibilities, but they also face greater checking pressure than checkingline guys, and guys like Gainey actually had really good linemates most of the time (Gainey often skated with Lemaire + some other good winger like Cournoyer).

Some of it also comes down to looking at the linemates players are getting here in the ATD, and comparing those guys to the linemates they had in real life. Specific team context counts for a lot.

Benn and Getzlaf are going to be two guys, maybe THE two guys, who get most heavily pushed down based on linemates. Actually, Nik Backstrom would top this list quite easily.

Backstrom I get, but I have no idea why you'd single out Benn and Getzlaf for scrutiny vis-á-vis linemates. Throughout the course of his prime, Getzlaf has generally been the best scorer on his lines. This is not true for every single season, but on the whole it is definitely the case. Same for Benn, who has outscored the famous center you're thinking of in Dallas (overall, and at even strength), and has often skated on a line with another famous center who is now old and not that good (stupid undrafteds).

The guys who should come in for the most scrutiny in these numbers are those who were clearly not the best offensive players on their own lines for major parts of their primes. That list includes Gainey, N. Backstrom, Provost, Lemaire (??), Mullen, Hodge, S. Smith, Nevin, Marleau, Armstrong, Martin, Ellis, C. Lemieux, Hunter (not sure on this one...was Goulet a better ES scorer than Dale?), Stanfield, Tikkanen, Mosdell, Bourne and Lehtinen...just off the top of my head.

If we're going to criticize these numbers based on linemates, guys who lead the attack like Benn and Getzlaf are not going to be first against the wall.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

better linemates do outweigh better competition though, there's no question about that. You move a Habs 3rd liner up to the top line, unsuited for the role or not, he starts scoring more, he doesn't "struggle against the top defensemen".

I think the most variable piece is the difference in linemate quality for the real-life 1st/2nd liners. Many of them will be getting a linemate upgrade as well, but others will be getting a downgrade

 

[jarek]

There's no way in the burning flames of Yoggsothoth that ANY 3rd liner, moved up to an actual scoring line with scoring line players, would score LESS.

There is nothing anyone can say to convince me otherwise. This argument just doesn't make any sense.

He might not score a whole lot more, but there's no way he'll score less.

 

[seventieslord]

Hmm really?

I suppose there are players who are better defensively or offensively, but for a 4th line banger, there isn't many players who are better?

well, I guess if you were looking for a LW with prerequisite being "all kinds of tough" , with defense being inconsequential and you just wanted to use upside as the tiebreaker (which is a great way to make picks, BTW), I guess there are just two I'd take over Clark right now. So I guess he's pretty good.

(A couple more are arguable as they're in the same range numbers wise, but his offense looks way better than theirs once you consider his per-game numbers are better).

 

[Sturminator]

There's no way in the burning flames of Yoggsothoth that ANY 3rd liner, moved up to an actual scoring line with scoring line players, would score LESS.

There is nothing anyone can say to convince me otherwise. This argument just doesn't make any sense.

He might not score a whole lot more, but there's no way he'll score less.

This is of course true, but checkingline players placed on scoringlines also typically play less defense because the priorities shift. Claude Provost's career arc is, by his own admission, a perfect example of this phenomenon. I assume you remember the quote to which I am referring.

Bob Gainey and Jere Lehtinen are exceptions to this rule as they generally played on scoringlines during their careers, but that also raises the question of how much they would have scored (less than their already meagre ES totals) had they not had linemates like Lemaire, Modano, etc.

 

[895]

well, I guess if you were looking for a LW with prerequisite being "all kinds of tough" , with defense being inconsequential and you just wanted to use upside as the tiebreaker (which is a great way to make picks, BTW), I guess there are just two I'd take over Clark right now. So I guess he's pretty good.

(A couple more are arguable as they're in the same range numbers wise, but his offense looks way better than theirs once you consider his per-game numbers are better).

Offensive totals are mostly a product of icetime and offensive talent. That is, even the most talented guys won't score many points if their icetime is limited and untalented players will score some points if given enough icetime.

However, things like toughness and vocal leadership don't scale with ice time as much. A big momentum changing fight or hit will have effects even when the player comes off the ice. In terms of vocal leadership (as opposed to leading by example), icetime matters even less since that can be done from the bench or in the dressing room.

 

[seventieslord]

I think the most variable piece is the difference in linemate quality for the real-life 1st/2nd liners. Many of them will be getting a linemate upgrade as well, but others will be getting a downgrade

This is going to take a philosophical turn now, because I don't think you're just drafting these players via a time warp from the middle of their prime. You're drafting a microcosm of their prime and, to a lesser extent, their career. And everything becomes relative to the new setting these players are in. A player who was "somewhat gritty" is probably well below average in the ATD for example. And the draft isn't full of players who are above average defensively; some end up below the average and are exploitable.

So the question of who ends up with better or worse linemates is, to me, moot. For starters, almost every single player does end up with better linemates than they averaged in their career. But more importantly, they're not the same player. Kopitar is a top-10 center in real life. In this ATD he's just an OK two-way guy who's maybe 60th-80th best in the league. Think of an ok two-way guy who's 60th-80th best in today's NHL and that's how valuable Kopitar will be. He'll have better linemates here than he had in real life, but relatively speaking, they're approximately average players, and so is he.

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

Good to see Nash place where he placed. Taking into consideration the linemates he played with during his career, he could also be better than a few guys ahead of him.

 

[seventieslord]

This is of course true, but checkingline players placed on scoringlines also typically play less defense because the priorities shift. Claude Provost's career arc is, by his own admission, a perfect example of this phenomenon. I assume you remember the quote to which I am referring.

Bob Gainey and Jere Lehtinen are exceptions to this rule as they generally played on scoringlines during their careers, but that also raises the question of how much they would have scored (less than their already meagre ES totals) had they not had linemates like Lemaire, Modano, etc.

Lehtinen, absolutely. Didn't Gainey mostly play with Jarvis and then Carbonneau?

 

[Sturminator]

Lehtinen, absolutely. Didn't Gainey mostly play with Jarvis and then Carbonneau?

Bob took a lot of shifts on the Montreal scoringlines (specifically the Lemaire line, iirc) based on matchups because Scotty Bowman was just all about that life. Jarvis' regular LW was a big, rough customer who has also been an ATD regular so I can't name him, but I think you know who I'm talking about.

But this is all a little hazy. It's been many years, I was never that deep into the Habs, and Bowman switched things up a lot.

 

[jarek]

As seventies has already noted, these arguments cut both ways. Top line guys typically have fewer checking responsibilities, but they also face greater checking pressure than checkingline guys, and guys like Gainey actually had really good linemates most of the time (Gainey often skated with Lemaire + some other good winger like Cournoyer).

Some of it also comes down to looking at the linemates players are getting here in the ATD, and comparing those guys to the linemates they had in real life. Specific team context counts for a lot.



Backstrom I get, but I have no idea why you'd single out Benn and Getzlaf for scrutiny vis-á-vis linemates. Throughout the course of his prime, Getzlaf has generally been the best scorer on his lines. This is not true for every single season, but on the whole it is definitely the case. Same for Benn, who has outscored the famous center you're thinking of in Dallas (overall, and at even strength), and has often skated on a line with another famous center who is now old and not that good (stupid undrafteds).

The guys who should come in for the most scrutiny in these numbers are those who were clearly not the best offensive players on their own lines for major parts of their primes. That list includes Gainey, N. Backstrom, Provost, Lemaire (??), Mullen, Hodge, S. Smith, Nevin, Marleau, Armstrong, Martin, Ellis, C. Lemieux, Tikkanen, Mosdell, Bourne and Lehtinen...just off the top of my head.

If we're going to criticize these numbers based on linemates, guys who lead the attack like Benn and Getzlaf are not going to be first against the wall.

The reason I mentioned Benn and Getzlaf is because from the standpoint of relative quality of linemates, they are getting downgrades. Getzlaf is playing with Lehtinen and Gare, while Benn is playing with Fredrickson and Amonte. Benn won't get hit nearly as hard as Getzlaf here, and it's entirely possible that this argument doesn't apply to Benn at all (good job, BB).

As you correctly pointed out, team context in the ATD is crucial. Take my Bob Nevin, for example. He spent a couple of years as the glue guy for Mahovlich and Kelly. Pretty clearly he was the third wheel talent wise, and he's being used much the same way here, with Mayorov and Starshinov.

Mayorov and Starshinov are a pretty clear notch worse than Mahovlich and Kelly, but they also won't be used in a checking role, and will be facing weaker competition than the MKN line.

In New York, I'm fairly certain Nevin was at best the 2nd line RW, as Rod Gilbert was there for most of his time in NYR, right?

On the other side of the coin, Jarvis' pitiful position on that list might even flatter him, as he'll be getting even less ES time here, and with largely defensive zone starts.

 

[seventieslord]

Bob took a lot of shifts on the Montreal scoringlines (specifically the Lemaire line, iirc) based on matchups because Scotty Bowman was just all about that life. Jarvis' regular LW was a big, rough customer who has also been an ATD regular so I can't name him, but I think you know who I'm talking about.

But this is all a little hazy. It's been many years, I was never that deep into the Habs, and Bowman switched things up a lot.

I'm sure I've heard lots made of the Gainey-Jarvis-Roberts line and how good they were in the 70s. there's even a card of it:

On the other side of the coin, Jarvis' pitiful position on that list might even flatter him, as he'll be getting even less ES time here, and with largely defensive zone starts.

TOI adjustments should be made to just put players on a somewhat even playing field; it doesn't make Jarvis any worse that you have him in a limited role.

 

[Sturminator]

The reason I mentioned Benn and Getzlaf is because from the standpoint of relative quality of linemates, they are getting downgrades. Getzlaf is playing with Lehtinen and Gare, while Benn is playing with Fredrickson and Amonte. Benn won't get hit nearly as hard as Getzlaf here, and it's entirely possible that this argument doesn't apply to Benn at all (good job, BB).

As you correctly pointed out, team context in the ATD is crucial. Take my Bob Nevin, for example. He spent a couple of years as the glue guy for Mahovlich and Kelly. Pretty clearly he was the third wheel talent wise, and he's being used much the same way here, with Mayorov and Starshinov.

Mayorov and Starshinov are a pretty clear notch worse than Mahovlich and Kelly, but they also won't be used in a checking role, and will be facing weaker competition than the MKN line.

In New York, I'm fairly certain Nevin was at best the 2nd line RW, as Rod Gilbert was there for most of his time in NYR, right?

On the other side of the coin, Jarvis' pitiful position on that list might even flatter him, as he'll be getting even less ES time here, and with largely defensive zone starts.

Nevin's best years in New York were on a line with Goyette and Balon (the "old smoothies"...corniest line name ever). They were the top line in New York (pitiful, I know) for a while after they came over. Goyette was clearly the offensive catalyst of the unit, though Nevin was no slouch, himself.

Would have to drill down a little more into Benn's regular linemates. I follow the Pacific division pretty well as a Sharks fan...well enough to know that Jamie has skated both with that kid from Boston and that old man from Ottawa...but I don't know exactly how much time he has spent with one or the other at even strength. I know this year he is mostly skating with the old man when I have seen the Stars play.