ATD 2017 Draft Thread IV

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I don't really see how much Lemieux is going to help much as a scorer. His offense is mediocre, and he's not a ES specialist or anything.

I don't see how putting offensive guys in defensive roles is going to be overly effective. As discussed last draft, you can't completely change how a players gets used and think he's going to perform the same. Also, most offensive players score about 33% of their points on the PP. May as well take that away from the 3rd liners, right?

Hopefully, we'll have a clearer idea of the ES scoring ability of many third liners in the near future.
 
The Invincibles select Jiri Bubla, the best defenseman at the 1979 world championships and also an all-star the year before that, despite Czechoslovakia only taking the silver both years. He was part of all three gold medal teams, in fact he was on nine straight medalling teams at that tourney (1971 through 1979). He was also named the best defenseman at the Izvestia tournament in 1978.

Namba said:
One of the best defenseman of the 70's, was a key member of the CSSR golden era team, that won 3 WC gold over the team USSR in 1972, 1976, 1977. He was the best scorer among CSSR defensemen at 1976 and 1979 WC. He has 5 points in 7 games of the Canada Cup in 1976. Bubla was 3rd in MVP voting of the CSSR league in 1978 and 1979 (both times - the 1st among defensemen), 7th in 1977 (2nd among defensemen), 10th in 1976 (3d among defensemen). In 1978 he was the 6th scorer of the CSSR league (amoung all skaters). He ate tons of ice time, played both PP and PK. He is always described as big, speedy, very tough and physical defenseman with a hard shot

jiri-bubla-1.jpg


... a tough, strong and a hard hitter who handled the puck very well. Blessed with mobility and hockey sense, he was extremely good at quick transitions from defense to offense. His sharp outlet passes created many scoring opportunities for streaking forwards that caught opposition defenders a step behind.
 
I don't see how putting offensive guys in defensive roles is going to be overly effective. As discussed last draft, you can't completely change how a players gets used and think he's going to perform the same. Also, most offensive players score about 33% of their points on the PP. May as well take that away from the 3rd liners, right?

This is why I think my third line is underrated- at least going by Sturminator's list- and might actually be the most overlooked part of Joey Mullen's game overall.

Mullen's seven best ES years look like this:

Year|League|Team
1983-84|28th|2nd
1984-85|19th|1st
1985-86|30th|2nd
1986-87|16th|1st
1987-88|10th|1st
1988-89|7th|1st
1991-92|11th|3rd

Keep in mind that league-wide number is ALL positions, making it an even more impressive distinction.

As such, unlike some other teams, the primary offensive weapon on my third line will not need powerplay time to generate offense. He can do it perfectly fine five-on-five, giving my hybrid checking unit a unique advantage. Graves (5, 5, 9 Selke record) and Brind'Amour (1, 1, 9 Selke) can handle the checking and defensive duties that go with playing top lines. Given that Rod the Bod is also an all-time faceoff great (1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th in FO%) I believe that trio will be surprisingly effective at neutralizing opponents while also generating scoring chances of their own.
 
This is why I think my third line is underrated- at least going by Sturminator's list- and might actually be the most overlooked part of Joey Mullen's game overall.

Mullen's seven best ES years look like this:

Year|League|Team
1983-84|28th|2nd
1984-85|19th|1st
1985-86|30th|2nd
1986-87|16th|1st
1987-88|10th|1st
1988-89|7th|1st
1991-92|11th|3rd

Keep in mind that league-wide number is ALL positions, making it an even more impressive distinction.

As such, unlike some other teams, the primary offensive weapon on my third line will not need powerplay time to generate offense. He can do it perfectly fine five-on-five, giving my hybrid checking unit a unique advantage. Graves (5, 5, 9 Selke record) and Brind'Amour (1, 1, 9 Selke) can handle the checking and defensive duties that go with playing top lines. Given that Rod the Bod is also an all-time faceoff great (1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th in FO%) I believe that trio will be surprisingly effective at neutralizing opponents while also generating scoring chances of their own.

Joe Mullen scored 67% of his points at even strength, and 31% on the powerplay. That is pretty much in line with what would be expected from a guy who got a good amount of powerplay time.

Brind'Amour scored 62% at even strength and 34% on the powerplay.

Compare that to some of the better checkers..... Craig Ramsay, who scored 84% at even strength and just 9% of the powerplay. Guy Carbonneau scored 88% at even strength and 5% o the powerplay.
 
Joe Mullen scored 67% of his points at even strength, and 31% on the powerplay. That is pretty much in line with what would be expected from a guy who got a good amount of powerplay time.

I would imagine 67% is rather high for third line offensive players, and that was my point. Breaking it down to a flat split also completely washes out what exactly that is 67% of; that he was a top ten ES scorer in the high flying 80s three times. The same goes for...

Brind'Amour scored 62% at even strength and 34% on the powerplay.

But again, Brind'Amour's offensive peak was higher than Carbonneau's; this is oversimplifying it, but 62% of 97- Brindy's career high- is still 60 points. 88% of Carbonneau's best year is 50. That 20% difference in offense is why I refer to my unit as a "hybrid" checking line; no one should be worried about Marshall-Carbonneau-Westfall producing so much as a shot on goal against the stacked top lines of ATD teams, and as such, I don't know that it makes sense to turn one of your four lines- and a significant one at ES- into a blackhole of offense. Even if it does manage to stifle one scoring line, you still have to contend with a second and potentially even a third. My third line can play good defense while also pushing the river offensively.

Compare that to some of the better checkers..... Craig Ramsay, who scored 84% at even strength and just 9% of the powerplay. Guy Carbonneau scored 88% at even strength and 5% o the powerplay.

Re: Ramsay- if he is a third line's best scoring option, that's not going to scare anyone. It's the same thing I mentioned with the splits of Mullen/Brind'Amour; you smartly paired him with a center who has a strong track record of creating offense, and it gives you the ability to mount a counterattack while at the same time putting up a good defensive game.

Frankly, it surprises me so many teams went with traditional shutdown lines that offer little in the way of offense. The smaller draft should have made it fairly easy for every team to get at least one ringer for their third line.
 
I would imagine 67% is rather high for third line offensive players, and that was my point. Breaking it down to a flat split also completely washes out what exactly that is 67% of; that he was a top ten ES scorer in the high flying 80s three times. The same goes for...

67% is probably a little higher than average.

But again, Brind'Amour's offensive peak was higher than Carbonneau's; this is oversimplifying it, but 62% of 97- Brindy's career high- is still 60 points. 88% of Carbonneau's best year is 50. That 20% difference in offense is why I refer to my unit as a "hybrid" checking line; no one should be worried about Marshall-Carbonneau-Westfall producing so much as a shot on goal against the stacked top lines of ATD teams, and as such, I don't know that it makes sense to turn one of your four lines- and a significant one at ES- into a blackhole of offense. Even if it does manage to stifle one scoring line, you still have to contend with a second and potentially even a third. My third line can play good defense while also pushing the river offensively.

The best checkers in the ATD went head to head with the best of scoring lines, and they produced what they did. Why is that suddenly going to change now?

Re: Ramsay- if he is a third line's best scoring option, that's not going to scare anyone. It's the same thing I mentioned with the splits of Mullen/Brind'Amour; you smartly paired him with a center who has a strong track record of creating offense, and it gives you the ability to mount a counterattack while at the same time putting up a good defensive game.

Frankly, it surprises me so many teams went with traditional shutdown lines that offer little in the way of offense. The smaller draft should have made it fairly easy for every team to get at least one ringer for their third line.

Looking at just even strength offense, Craig Ramsay's vs. X score comes out to 46.3. Mullen's score would be 48.0. How is Mullen a scarier offensive player in this role? Brind'Amour's score is 45.0.
 
The Invincibles select HHOF goaltender Harry Lumley, the youngest goalie in NHL history at age 17 who came of age a couple of years later as the goalie who backstopped the Red Wings to the Stanley Cup Finals four times in five seasons, winning the championship the last time in 1950. Then, with young Sawchuk coming up in Detroit, Lumley was traded and ended up eventually in Toronto where the Leafs brass appreciated his competitiveness back during the Leafs forties' dynasty years. As a Leaf on a weak, rebuilding fifties' squad, Lumley led the team to the playoffs and some respectability, becoming the 1954 and 1955 1st team NHL all star, and later the second ever 300-win NHL goaltender (the first was Broda whom he battled against in Lumley's early days in Detroit).

harrylumley.jpg


Sportsnet Dec 12 said:
Lumley was known as one of the smartest goalies in the NHL, studying the tendencies of each opposing shooter. But he also led all goalies in penalty minutes seven times.
"He used his stick a lot to create a swath around his net," says Gordie Howe. "You had to shoot from further out or you would be eating some lumber.":laugh:
 
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7-year ESVsX totals for all post-1952 forwards playing on bottom six lines

I think ESVsX is going to become more of a focus as time goes on. We tend to look at the best 7 years of a scoring line forward's production to get a good idea of their all-time offensive worth, and there are a lot of good reasons why that's the fairest way to compare across eras for that class of players. But when it comes to ES scoring, we've never had a simple and similar way to do it. I've seen overpass' career "Adjusted ESP per season" mentioned, I've seen things like what percentage of their points were scored on the PP, and both are things I've reviewed when looking for bottom six forwards too. But when we know career totals and career averages are poor ways of assessing overall offense, why do it for ES offense? And what does it matter if one guy scored 37% of his points on the PP if that's 37% of 100?

For those reasons I give to you, ESVsX. It was calculated similar to the way regular VsX was calculated - look at the leaderboard and choose a benchmark player. Due to the smaller numbers involved, I handled this much the same way as I handled VsXD - I picked the player who started "the pack". Most of the time it was #2, but occasionally it was #3 or 4 in the league.

Situational scoring data only goes back to the 1952-53 season. I don't know if this is because that's currently the last continuous season we have in the HSP currently, or if it's due to a limitation in the way goals were recorded prior to that. So this list only includes post-1952 players.

The below scores are the 7-year ESVsX totals for all players who are eligible and are currently listed on the 3rd or 4th line of a roster post. A couple guys were a couple of days behind and I made sure to include their recently selected players.

One player was fudged with his outlier teammates used as the benchmark in 1971 and 1974: Ken Hodge. Three players - Fleming Mackell, Ken Mosdell and Sid Smith - played most of their good seasons after 1952, but had a few good ones before, so their ESVsX7 scores were padded with 2-3 seasons from before 1952 so as to avoid throwing those players out entirely. Igor Larionov's score is unfair as it only reflects his NHL ES scoring.

H.Sedin | TML | 646
Bure | TBC | 616
Turgeon | TBC | 606
D.Sedin | TML | 605
Provost | STK | 604
McKenney | ORI | 593
Getzlaf | ABB | 592
Kovalchuk | SSB | 587
Perreault | AMA | 584
Stamkos | IND | 583
Staal | ORI | 580
Roenick | PIT | 574
Lemaire | BRO | 571
Amonte | MTL | 569
Mullen | STR | 568
R.Backstrom | STK | 566
Goyette | RED | 557
Hodge | MHC | 552
Damphousse | CHI | 548
Toews | MHC | 548
Ciccarelli | TBC | 548
Benn | MTL | 547
Nash | DUK | 544
N.Backstrom | MHC | 538
Roberts | IND | 537
Middleton | BRO | 536
Kopitar | CHI | 532
S.Smith | STK | 525
Litzenberger | MSE | 519
Tkaczuk | TOL | 515
Brind'Amour | STR | 511
Guerin | MSE | 508
Nevin | TMA | 507
Nieuwendyk | IND | 506
Pulford | WLT | 506
Marleau | SSB | 505
Armstrong | MTM | 503
Martin | MSE | 503
Bergeron | TBC | 500
Muller | STK | 498
Sloan | TML | 496
Tocchet | REG | 494
Hunter | REG | 494
Gare | ABB | 492
Doan | WLT | 482
Naslund | HFD | 481
Giroux | DUK | 479
Andreychuk | MTL | 473
Holik | VAN | 473
Verbeek | AMA | 469
Duff | ABB | 468
Luce | HFD | 465
Ramsay | ORI | 464
MacKell | ORI | 463
Nolan | REG | 455
Ellis | VAN | 455
Pronovost | HFD | 454
Balon | TBC | 451
Sullivan | MSE | 443
Kerr | WLT | 438
Sutter | TOL | 434
Marshall | CSK | 433
Stanfield | STR | 433
Poulin | ABB | 430
Lemieux | TOL | 429
Toppazzini | MTL | 429
Bridgman | IND | 428
MacGregor | TBC | 428
Tikkanen | BRO | 426
Carbonneau | CSK | 424
Goring | AMA | 424
Mosdell | WLT | 411
Sanderson | TOL | 408
Kesler | VAN | 407
Sheppard | MTL | 405
Marcotte | CHI | 394
Larionov | MSE | 391
Nesterenko | CHI | 389
Bourne | MTM | 388
Graves | STR | 381
Lehtinen | ABB | 377
Kasper | DUK | 375
Westfall | CSK | 373
Tremblay | STK | 372
Graham | TML | 368
Madden | AMA | 363
Peca | IND | 357
Pavelich | AMA | 356
Otto | TML | 316
Gainey | MHC | 315
Curry | MTM | 312
Draper | BRB | 306
Jarvis | TMA | 293
J.Roberts | STR | 244

Typically you see players known as scorers ahead of the players known as checkers, but the pack gets much more compressed together. And, there are still surprises. Look at Adam Graves, a guy you probably thought was good for some ATD secondary scoring. Kesler and Goring are a couple more guys who needed PP time to score their nice raw point totals maybe more than most people realized.

In the middle you see guys like Ramay and Ellis are about as effective at ES as guys like Giroux, Andreychuk and Verbeek. Further up you see checkers like Hunter, Bergeron, Armstrong, Pulford and Nevin no worse than scorers Brind'Amour, Nieuwendyk, Guerin and Marleau.

Near the top you see some guys surprisingly low - like Kopitar, who seems like the kind of guy who'd be more of an ES scorer, and Nash, who's only in this draft as a bottom sixer because he's been touted as a good ES scorer - and surprisingly high - like Provost essentially in a tie for 2nd, and McKenney in a Sedin/Kovalchuk/Getzlaf/Perreault range.

Mostly though, at the top, you see the exact players you'd expect to see there. The players who get all these extra points on the PP are also usually the best offensive players to begin with. Surprising, I know!

But, this doesn't take icetime or linemates into account at all. The majority of those players were 1st liners during their prime and had strong 1st line caliber linemates. You've gotta think that in a situation where all their icetimes are very similar (instead of ranging from 11 to 17 minutes per player), that the gaps that have already shrunk relative to regular VsX, will shrink even more. In a lot of cases, the differences from one player to the next is nearly proportional to the differences in their ESTOI. Kovalchuk's score, for example (and this is a cherrypick because he's the highest ESTOI player in this bunch), goes to 391 if you adjust to 12 ES minutes, which puts him right in the range of players who actually played about 12 ES minutes in their primes. Getzlaf, likewise, would be at 444. The one dimensional players at/near the top of the list, you've gotta wonder what the point of having some of them in a bottom six is, if they're good for 5-10 more points than an average player. (example, Henrik Sedin is 17% more potent at ES than Walt Tkaczuk when you adjust them both to 12 ES minutes. If Walt puts in 35 ESP and Sedin can get you 41, is that even close to worth the checking Tkaczuk does? don't forget this completely ignores the effect linemates had on their real life ESP totals)

Maybe if I get bored I'll do some TOI adjustments for fun. But even then it wouldn't account for linemates. Look at Montreal's famous checking line, all in the bottom six on the list. But what if Gainey was on Lafleur's line? What if Jarvis centered Shutt? This leaves Roberts with two better scorers than he was with before, too. They'd obviously all have more ESP.

Anyway, enjoy and digest. Have a good burp and see what comes up.
 
Would have been nice to have this when I had Provost last year.

Obviously, I'm not keeping Kovalchuk off the powerplay. That would be ridiculous. But it's comforting to see Marleau in the top-half of this, even if guys like Nevin and Pulford are right there with him. Marleau was a guy I drafted as a multi-purpose placeholder in case my next-few-rounds strategy didn't work out, and it's nice to know that he should at least pull his weight.

Speaking of which, Marleau is available for trade if anyone feels like they need him and can offer a shiny toy of some kind. That's not to say I don't want him - l like having a well rounded guy like that in my bottom six. But I can be bought.
 
I really dislike the idea of calling Marleau "well rounded" at the ATD level. If he's a well rounded bottom six player, then aside from Staal, Mullen, Kovalchuk, Turgeon, Bure and the Sedins, who isn't?

Provost looks good for sure, but also he did that as his linemate Richard was earning a score of 704.
 
Venjamin Alexandrov

This is a fantastic pick right now.

But now that he's been picked..

This guy was 2nd on my list for 2nd line LW. The reason I chose Parise instead is that, while the line may have ended up more potent offensively, it would have left poor Ullman with virtually all the forechecking and defensive responsibilities. The main thing Alexandrov would have been good for as noted by EE is breaking the zone for a breakaway, but I would have never, ever used such a line for a defensive zone draw, nor would the line be particularly great at retrieving the puck with two minus defensive players on the wings.

Imagine if my 2nd line duo was instead Ullman - Hextall Sr? Suddenly Alexandrov looks a lot more interesting.

Yes, the line with Parise carries less offensive bite, but it's a much, much more cohesive unit as a result.

I really dislike the idea of calling Marleau "well rounded" at the ATD level. If he's a well rounded bottom six player, then aside from Staal, Mullen, Kovalchuk, Turgeon, Bure and the Sedins, who isn't?

Provost looks good for sure, but also he did that as his linemate Richard was earning a score of 704.

Eh, Marleau at least brings a respectable two-way game, and has SOME PK'ing experience.
 
Excellent work.Does this include the current year?

No, but it does include last year.

If I was going to include this year I would only include their current ES total versus what the projected benchmark would be, if you catch my drift. So, no projection to the benefit of any player whatsoever.

Just curious, what players on that list are having a season that will usurp one from their current best 7? And which ones already have such a total right now? I'll take a look but it sounds like you already have someone in mind.

edit: I checked Getzlaf, Staal, Toews, Bergeron, Kopitar, Nash, Backstrom, Marleau and the Sedins. None are having such a season.

Benn's current score matches his 7th best so from here on, every 2 ESP he sores bump up his total by 3.

Kesler also appears like a candidate to move his score up this season.
 
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Great work seventies. Considering Kopitar plays on a low scoring team, this is about where I expected to see him (slightly behind Toews). Outside of Toews there isn't anyone with a better defensive resume ahead of him (maybe R. Backstrom).


Overall I'm happy where this places my 2 third liners that qualify (Damphousse and Kopitar), especially considering Kopitar has a strong defensive resume and I would say Damphousse is at least some kind of a plus. I looked at overpass' adjusted ES points when making my selections, and these seem to be in line with that when comparing to other players that I looked at.

Speaking of which, do you have the score for Pavol Demitra? I see Dreakmur has him on a 2nd line, but he's not getting any PP time. He was a player I looked at when I picked Damphousse, if this follows adjusted ES points Demitra will have a higher score than Damphousse, but Demitra had more of his best years at C than W, which is where I was planning to play him. When looking at W years only they were about the same, and I thought Damphousse had a better defensive game.

McKenney and Provost are both players who I've always liked, but this makes them look really good.

Again, great work, very interesting.
 
67% is probably a little higher than average.

Right, and seventies' data affirms that- he's in the top 15.

The best checkers in the ATD went head to head with the best of scoring lines, and they produced what they did. Why is that suddenly going to change now?

Less minutes- Ramsay-Luce-Gare was a second line- and higher competition. Also, being that Ramsay is far and away the best defensive player on your third line, he will likely be tasked with checking his opponents closer.

The latter is going to be a rather big detriment to his production, as there's actually a pretty strong inverse relationship between Ramsay's ESP finishes and Selke voting:

1981-82- 166th ES, 1st Selke voting
1977-78- 14th ES, 2nd Selke voting
1979-80- 63rd ES, 2nd Selke voting
1980-81- 44th ES, 2nd Selke voting
1978-79- 63rd ES, 3rd Selke voting

Looking at just even strength offense, Craig Ramsay's vs. X score comes out to 46.3. Mullen's score would be 48.0. How is Mullen a scarier offensive player in this role? Brind'Amour's score is 45.0.

Come on, is there even really a question that Mullen vastly outperforms Ramsay as an ES scorer? Ramsay's two best ESP finishes are a pair of 14ths, and he was the 3rd best Sabre in that category both times. Luce was the real ES monster on that line, and no one is mistaking him for an ATD offensive contributor.

Mullen, meanwhile, was among the best in the league overall during his prime.
 
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No, but it does include last year.

If I was going to include this year I would only include their current ES total versus what the projected benchmark would be, if you catch my drift. So, no projection to the benefit of any player whatsoever.

Just curious, what players on that list are having a season that will usurp one from their current best 7? And which ones already have such a total right now? I'll take a look but it sounds like you already have someone in mind.

I'm assuming he's interested in Jamie Benn.

Great work seventies. Considering Kopitar plays on a low scoring team, this is about where I expected to see him (slightly behind Toews). Outside of Toews there isn't anyone with a better defensive resume ahead of him (maybe R. Backstrom).


Overall I'm happy where this places my 2 third liners that qualify (Damphousse and Kopitar), especially considering Kopitar has a strong defensive resume and I would say Damphousse is at least some kind of a plus. I looked at overpass' adjusted ES points when making my selections, and these seem to be in line with that when comparing to other players that I looked at.

Speaking of which, do you have the score for Pavol Demitra? I see Dreakmur has him on a 2nd line, but he's not getting any PP time. He was a player I looked at when I picked Damphousse, if this follows adjusted ES points Demitra will have a higher score than Damphousse, but Demitra had more of his best years at C than W, which is where I was planning to play him. When looking at W years only they were about the same, and I thought Damphousse had a better defensive game.

McKenney and Provost are both players who I've always liked, but this makes them look really good.

Again, great work, very interesting.

Like seventies mentioned, it doesn't account for the TOI those players got in real life, as well as their linemates. seventies did a Getzlaf vs. Jarvis comparison earlier (very roughly) and it's questionable just how better of an ES scorer a guy like Getzlaf will be.

Like seventies mentioned, I'm not sure 5-10 more ES points is worth picking a more offensive guy over someone who brings more to the table defensively or on the PK, for example.
 
In 1975-76, he received no votes we know of and was 14th ES. In 74-75, he was 41st, and again there were no Selke votes. The sole exception is that 77-78 season.

That's because the Selke trophy didn't exist until the 1977-1978 season...
 
Strathcona dips into the spare pool and adds a winger who will provide plenty of defensive ability should we need to dress more of a shutdown group in the playoffs. This industrious forward was known for keeping a close eye on the stars of his time:

LW Bob Davidson

BobDavidson.jpg
 
No, but it does include last year.

If I was going to include this year I would only include their current ES total versus what the projected benchmark would be, if you catch my drift. So, no projection to the benefit of any player whatsoever.

Just curious, what players on that list are having a season that will usurp one from their current best 7? And which ones already have such a total right now? I'll take a look but it sounds like you already have someone in mind.

edit: I checked Getzlaf, Staal, Toews, Bergeron, Kopitar, Nash, Backstrom, Marleau and the Sedins. None are having such a season.

Benn's current score matches his 7th best so from here on, every 2 ESP he sores bump up his total by 3.

Kesler also appears like a candidate to move his score up this season.

I calculated Benn's VsX score not using a "projected benchmark" (unless I misunderstood what you meant), but using what the benchmark would be if the season ended the day I'm calculating it.It is obviously subject to continuous change throughout the season.

I was asking because I have Benn and I think his number would rise if we calculated the ongoing season.
 
That's because the Selke trophy didn't exist until the 1977-1978 season...

Good point, I forgot that. We can't exactly give him credits for an award that didn't exist, however, unless/until we do our own retro Selke project that tallies not just the winner but the top ten vote-getters. The relationship is still apparent though- he was awarded what appears to have been a token career Selke right at the end, but his best voting years were all ESP seasons outside the top 40.
 
Ice time is definitely something to factor in, but another thing to also consider about the real-life 1st/2nd liners vs. 3rd/4th liners is that the 1st/2nd liners were going up against top defense pairings and checkers. How much would Gainey and Jarvis score at ES if they were playing against guys whose main focus was to stop them from scoring?
 
You don't have to sound snide about it :laugh:

I'm just trying to encourage fact checking. :P

I actually used to do that all the time with the Selke trophy! I'm not sure how many times someone has had to remind me about that. Now it's my turn!
 

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