7-year ESVsX totals for all post-1952 forwards playing on bottom six lines
I think ESVsX is going to become more of a focus as time goes on. We tend to look at the best 7 years of a scoring line forward's production to get a good idea of their all-time offensive worth, and there are a lot of good reasons why that's the fairest way to compare across eras for that class of players. But when it comes to ES scoring, we've never had a simple and similar way to do it. I've seen overpass' career "Adjusted ESP per season" mentioned, I've seen things like what percentage of their points were scored on the PP, and both are things I've reviewed when looking for bottom six forwards too. But when we know career totals and career averages are poor ways of assessing overall offense, why do it for ES offense? And what does it matter if one guy scored 37% of his points on the PP if that's 37% of 100?
For those reasons I give to you, ESVsX. It was calculated similar to the way regular VsX was calculated - look at the leaderboard and choose a benchmark player. Due to the smaller numbers involved, I handled this much the same way as I handled VsXD - I picked the player who started "the pack". Most of the time it was #2, but occasionally it was #3 or 4 in the league.
Situational scoring data only goes back to the 1952-53 season. I don't know if this is because that's currently the last continuous season we have in the HSP currently, or if it's due to a limitation in the way goals were recorded prior to that. So this list only includes post-1952 players.
The below scores are the 7-year ESVsX totals for all players who are eligible and are currently listed on the 3rd or 4th line of a roster post. A couple guys were a couple of days behind and I made sure to include their recently selected players.
One player was fudged with his outlier teammates used as the benchmark in 1971 and 1974: Ken Hodge. Three players - Fleming Mackell, Ken Mosdell and Sid Smith - played most of their good seasons after 1952, but had a few good ones before, so their ESVsX7 scores were padded with 2-3 seasons from before 1952 so as to avoid throwing those players out entirely. Igor Larionov's score is unfair as it only reflects his NHL ES scoring.
H.Sedin | TML | 646
Bure | TBC | 616
Turgeon | TBC | 606
D.Sedin | TML | 605
Provost | STK | 604
McKenney | ORI | 593
Getzlaf | ABB | 592
Kovalchuk | SSB | 587
Perreault | AMA | 584
Stamkos | IND | 583
Staal | ORI | 580
Roenick | PIT | 574
Lemaire | BRO | 571
Amonte | MTL | 569
Mullen | STR | 568
R.Backstrom | STK | 566
Goyette | RED | 557
Hodge | MHC | 552
Damphousse | CHI | 548
Toews | MHC | 548
Ciccarelli | TBC | 548
Benn | MTL | 547
Nash | DUK | 544
N.Backstrom | MHC | 538
Roberts | IND | 537
Middleton | BRO | 536
Kopitar | CHI | 532
S.Smith | STK | 525
Litzenberger | MSE | 519
Tkaczuk | TOL | 515
Brind'Amour | STR | 511
Guerin | MSE | 508
Nevin | TMA | 507
Nieuwendyk | IND | 506
Pulford | WLT | 506
Marleau | SSB | 505
Armstrong | MTM | 503
Martin | MSE | 503
Bergeron | TBC | 500
Muller | STK | 498
Sloan | TML | 496
Tocchet | REG | 494
Hunter | REG | 494
Gare | ABB | 492
Doan | WLT | 482
Naslund | HFD | 481
Giroux | DUK | 479
Andreychuk | MTL | 473
Holik | VAN | 473
Verbeek | AMA | 469
Duff | ABB | 468
Luce | HFD | 465
Ramsay | ORI | 464
MacKell | ORI | 463
Nolan | REG | 455
Ellis | VAN | 455
Pronovost | HFD | 454
Balon | TBC | 451
Sullivan | MSE | 443
Kerr | WLT | 438
Sutter | TOL | 434
Marshall | CSK | 433
Stanfield | STR | 433
Poulin | ABB | 430
Lemieux | TOL | 429
Toppazzini | MTL | 429
Bridgman | IND | 428
MacGregor | TBC | 428
Tikkanen | BRO | 426
Carbonneau | CSK | 424
Goring | AMA | 424
Mosdell | WLT | 411
Sanderson | TOL | 408
Kesler | VAN | 407
Sheppard | MTL | 405
Marcotte | CHI | 394
Larionov | MSE | 391
Nesterenko | CHI | 389
Bourne | MTM | 388
Graves | STR | 381
Lehtinen | ABB | 377
Kasper | DUK | 375
Westfall | CSK | 373
Tremblay | STK | 372
Graham | TML | 368
Madden | AMA | 363
Peca | IND | 357
Pavelich | AMA | 356
Otto | TML | 316
Gainey | MHC | 315
Curry | MTM | 312
Draper | BRB | 306
Jarvis | TMA | 293
J.Roberts | STR | 244
Typically you see players known as scorers ahead of the players known as checkers, but the pack gets much more compressed together. And, there are still surprises. Look at Adam Graves, a guy you probably thought was good for some ATD secondary scoring. Kesler and Goring are a couple more guys who needed PP time to score their nice raw point totals maybe more than most people realized.
In the middle you see guys like Ramay and Ellis are about as effective at ES as guys like Giroux, Andreychuk and Verbeek. Further up you see checkers like Hunter, Bergeron, Armstrong, Pulford and Nevin no worse than scorers Brind'Amour, Nieuwendyk, Guerin and Marleau.
Near the top you see some guys surprisingly low - like Kopitar, who seems like the kind of guy who'd be more of an ES scorer, and Nash, who's only in this draft as a bottom sixer because he's been touted as a good ES scorer - and surprisingly high - like Provost essentially in a tie for 2nd, and McKenney in a Sedin/Kovalchuk/Getzlaf/Perreault range.
Mostly though, at the top, you see the exact players you'd expect to see there. The players who get all these extra points on the PP are also usually the best offensive players to begin with. Surprising, I know!
But, this doesn't take icetime or linemates into account at all. The majority of those players were 1st liners during their prime and had strong 1st line caliber linemates. You've gotta think that in a situation where all their icetimes are very similar (instead of ranging from 11 to 17 minutes per player), that the gaps that have already shrunk relative to regular VsX, will shrink even more. In a lot of cases, the differences from one player to the next is nearly proportional to the differences in their ESTOI. Kovalchuk's score, for example (and this is a cherrypick because he's the highest ESTOI player in this bunch), goes to 391 if you adjust to 12 ES minutes, which puts him right in the range of players who actually played about 12 ES minutes in their primes. Getzlaf, likewise, would be at 444. The one dimensional players at/near the top of the list, you've gotta wonder what the point of having some of them in a bottom six is, if they're good for 5-10 more points than an average player. (example, Henrik Sedin is 17% more potent at ES than Walt Tkaczuk when you adjust them both to 12 ES minutes. If Walt puts in 35 ESP and Sedin can get you 41, is that even close to worth the checking Tkaczuk does? don't forget this completely ignores the effect linemates had on their real life ESP totals)
Maybe if I get bored I'll do some TOI adjustments for fun. But even then it wouldn't account for linemates. Look at Montreal's famous checking line, all in the bottom six on the list. But what if Gainey was on Lafleur's line? What if Jarvis centered Shutt? This leaves Roberts with two better scorers than he was with before, too. They'd obviously all have more ESP.
Anyway, enjoy and digest. Have a good burp and see what comes up.