ATD 2017 Draft Thread IV

[BenchBrawl]

Ice time is definitely something to factor in, but another thing to also consider about the real-life 1st/2nd liners vs. 3rd/4th liners is that the 1st/2nd liners were going up against top defense pairings and checkers. How much would Gainey and Jarvis score at ES if they were playing against guys whose main focus was to stop them from scoring?

And also, 1st liners are perhaps on the 1st line for a reason.That reason being they're just better offensively.

 

[PatrikOverAuston]

Ice time is definitely something to factor in, but another thing to also consider about the real-life 1st/2nd liners vs. 3rd/4th liners is that the 1st/2nd liners were going up against top defense pairings and checkers. How much would Gainey and Jarvis score at ES if they were playing against guys whose main focus was to stop them from scoring?

I think that would play into the favor of scorers on third lines, would it not? Instead of facing top shutdown pairs as they would have in their primes, they are more likely to get offense-oriented and thus comparatively weaker defensive units that support attacking lines.

 

[seventieslord]

Great work seventies. Considering Kopitar plays on a low scoring team, this is about where I expected to see him (slightly behind Toews). Outside of Toews there isn't anyone with a better defensive resume ahead of him (maybe R. Backstrom).


Overall I'm happy where this places my 2 third liners that qualify (Damphousse and Kopitar), especially considering Kopitar has a strong defensive resume and I would say Damphousse is at least some kind of a plus. I looked at overpass' adjusted ES points when making my selections, and these seem to be in line with that when comparing to other players that I looked at.

Speaking of which, do you have the score for Pavol Demitra? I see Dreakmur has him on a 2nd line, but he's not getting any PP time. He was a player I looked at when I picked Damphousse, if this follows adjusted ES points Demitra will have a higher score than Damphousse, but Demitra had more of his best years at C than W, which is where I was planning to play him. When looking at W years only they were about the same, and I thought Damphousse had a better defensive game.

McKenney and Provost are both players who I've always liked, but this makes them look really good.

Again, great work, very interesting.

I've got Demitra with 548.

McKenney looks like an outstanding ES producer, but I've had him before and couldn't believe how impossible it was to find anything substantial saying he could check. If he could, he'd be a Backstrom/Goyette but unless I'm missing something there, he's more of an offense only player.

Less minutes- Ramsay-Luce-Gare was a second line- and higher competition. Also, being that Ramsay is far and away the best defensive player on your third line, he will likely be tasked with checking his opponents closer.

....dude. You think less ice time affects Ramsay, Luce and Gare more than it affects Mullen or something? They were all 14 minute ES players in thier primes.

I think it's absolutely worth discussing whether Mullen's extra 5 ESP (that's based on a 22% advantage, so let's say Ramsay scores 23 in the ATD) are worth the huge defensive difference?

The latter is going to be a rather big detriment to his production, as there's actually a pretty strong inverse relationship between Ramsay's ESP finishes and Selke voting:

1981-82- 166th ES, 1st Selke voting
1977-78- 14th ES, 2nd Selke voting
1979-80- 63rd ES, 2nd Selke voting
1980-81- 44th ES, 2nd Selke voting
1978-79- 63rd ES, 3rd Selke voting

Come on, is there even really a question that Mullen vastly outperforms Ramsay as an ES scorer? Ramsay's two best ESP finishes are a pair of 14ths, and he was the 3rd best Sabre in that category both times. Luce was the real ES monster on that line, and no one is mistaking him for an ATD offensive contributor.

Mullen, meanwhile, was among the best in the league overall during his prime.

Luce was the real ES monster?? Based on what?

I'm assuming he's interested in Jamie Benn.

BenchBrawl, see my edit.

Like seventies mentioned, it doesn't account for the TOI those players got in real life, as well as their linemates. seventies did a Getzlaf vs. Jarvis comparison earlier (very roughly) and it's questionable just how better of an ES scorer a guy like Getzlaf will be.

No, it;s not questionable how much of a better scorer he is. He definitely is, but when he scores twice as much with about 33% more icetime it makes him roughly a 50% better scorer so it's worth asking whether his extra 8 points over a season are really worth it. (I realize Getzlaf is not one dimensional, but a shutdown player he is not)

Like seventies mentioned, I'm not sure 5-10 more ES points is worth picking a more offensive guy over someone who brings more to the table defensively or on the PK, for example.

Agree.

 

[ResilientBeast]

I'm just trying to encourage fact checking.

I actually used to do that all the time with the Selke trophy! I'm not sure how many times someone has had to remind me about that. Now it's my turn!

Like when you asked if the WCHL even won a Stanley Cup?

 

[jarek]

Ice time is definitely something to factor in, but another thing to also consider about the real-life 1st/2nd liners vs. 3rd/4th liners is that the 1st/2nd liners were going up against top defense pairings and checkers. How much would Gainey and Jarvis score at ES if they were playing against guys whose main focus was to stop them from scoring?

They were also getting more offensive zone starts. What percentage of offensive zone starts do you figure guys like Jarvis, Ramsay, etc. were getting?

It might look something like this (off. zone start / def. zone start):

Bergeron's career split: 46.3 / 53.7

Looking at a couple other guys who were notable two-way players:

Kopitar: 52.6 / 47.4 (not at all surprising when you consider Kopitar is the Kings' best offensive player as well)
Toews: 59.7 / 40.3 (... wut?)
Kesler: 44 / 56

Of these players, Bergeron and Kesler are the ones who most closely resemble checking type players when it comes to zone start splits.

To answer your question directly, probably not a whole lot more, if any more at all, because neither of them had particularly great offensive talents to begin with.

I think that would play into the favor of scorers on third lines, would it not? Instead of facing top shutdown pairs as they would have in their primes, they are more likely to get offense-oriented and thus comparatively weaker defensive units that support attacking lines.

The ice time argument is purely in favour of guys who played less ES minutes in real life. Doug Jarvis, for example, played around 12 ES minutes per game according to seventies.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Overall I'm happy with where Amonte and Benn rank on that list, especially in light of Benn not benefiting from his current season in the calculations.

 

[seventieslord]

I calculated Benn's VsX score not using a "projected benchmark" (unless I misunderstood what you meant), but using what the benchmark would be if the season ended the day I'm calculating it.It is obviously subject to continuous change throughout the season.

I was asking because I have Benn and I think his number would rise if we calculated the ongoing season.

I have projected the benchmark to 67. Benn has 35 right now, for a score of 52. That matches what is already his 7th best score. I disagree with crediting him for what he hasn't done yet, he could get injured tomorrow.

(and no, before someone says so, projecting the benchmark is not the same thing, whether it's Scheifele or Crosby or someone else, the benchmark will be 67, give or take a couple.)

Good point, I forgot that. We can't exactly give him credits for an award that didn't exist, however, unless/until we do our own retro Selke project that tallies not just the winner but the top ten vote-getters. The relationship is still apparent though- he was awarded what appears to have been a token career Selke right at the end, but his best voting years were all ESP seasons outside the top 40.

For the record, a few years back on another board I took a look at certain statistical indicators of defensive excellence in the seasons prior to the selke being introduced, and Ramsay was the only guy who met all of them every season. Bill Barber and Bobby Clarke also did very well.

I don't get what the point is about a supposed relationship between ESP and selke votes.

Ice time is definitely something to factor in, but another thing to also consider about the real-life 1st/2nd liners vs. 3rd/4th liners is that the 1st/2nd liners were going up against top defense pairings and checkers. How much would Gainey and Jarvis score at ES if they were playing against guys whose main focus was to stop them from scoring?

More, if they're playing with first line players.

 

[jarek]

Like when you asked if the WCHL even won a Stanley Cup?

I only asked about that one specific season!

 

[seventieslord]

They were also getting more offensive zone starts. What percentage of offensive zone starts do you figure guys like Jarvis, Ramsay, etc. were getting?

It might look something like this (off. zone start / def. zone start):

Bergeron's career split: 46.3 / 53.7

Looking at a couple other guys who were notable two-way players:

Kopitar: 52.6 / 47.4 (not at all surprising when you consider Kopitar is the Kings' best offensive player as well)
Toews: 59.7 / 40.3 (... wut?)
Kesler (44 / 56)

Of these players, Bergeron and Kesler are the ones who most closely resemble checking type players when it comes to zone start splits.

To answer your question directly, probably not a whole lot more, if any more at all, because neither of them had particularly great offensive talents to begin with.



The ice time argument is purely in favour of guys who played less ES minutes in real life. Doug Jarvis, for example, played around 12 ES minutes per game according to seventies.

not all zone start stats are created equal. Guys on worse teams will just naturally have more D-zone starts because their team finishes shifts there more often. This affects Toews, whose Hawks are 52/48 during his career. I was surprised to see that he greatly exceeds his team's average O-zone starts, though.

Kings are about 54/46 so Kopitar's starts are actually more defensive than average. He's a good example. Bergeron being 47/53 on a team that's been 51/49 is barely any more skewed but looks more extreme thanks to their team breakdowns.

 

[ResilientBeast]

So in the division of weak goaltending I'd like to press that advantage and grab a backup who on my all time list is closer to my rivals starters than they are to Vezina. To solidify my tandem in net the Maroons select Chuck Rayner, G

Awards and Achievements:
Retro Conn Smythe (1950)
Hart Trophy (1950)

3x Second Team All-Star (1949, 1950, 1951)
AHL Second Team All-Star (1941)

Hart Trophy Voting – 1st(1950), 4th(1947), 7th(1949)

3rd Team All Star (1942) behind Frank Brimsek and Turk Broda
Missed 1943, 1944, and 1945 due to the War
2nd Team All Star (1949) behind Bill Durnan, ahead of Turk Broda
2nd Team All Star (1950) behind Bill Durnan, ahead of Turk Broda
2nd Team All Star (1951) behind Terry Sawchuk, ahead of XXX

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

edit: I checked Getzlaf, Staal, Toews, Bergeron, Kopitar, Nash, Backstrom, Marleau and the Sedins. None are having such a season.

Benn's current score matches his 7th best so from here on, every 2 ESP he sores bump up his total by 3.

Kesler also appears like a candidate to move his score up this season.

This may change for Toews by the end of the season. For those that haven't been following him, it eventually came out this year that he injured his back during the World Cup, played through it till late Nov., then sat out 9 games to heal. Since coming back he's been playing very well, and a large majority of that time without Hossa on his line. He's also improved even more since requesting to play with consistent linemates (neither of which have been Hossa)

All Situations Scoring
While injured: 21 GP - 4 G - 8 A - 12 Pts - 0.57 ppg
After injury: 33 GP - 12 G - 22 A - 34 Pts - 1.03 ppg
Last 15 games: 15 GP - 9 G - 15 A - 24 Pts - 1.60 ppg

 

[jarek]

not all zone start stats are created equal. Guys on worse teams will just naturally have more D-zone starts because their team finishes shifts there more often. This affects Toews, whose Hawks are 52/48 during his career. I was surprised to see that he greatly exceeds his team's average O-zone starts, though.

Kings are about 54/46 so Kopitar's starts are actually more defensive than average. He's a good example. Bergeron being 47/53 on a team that's been 51/49 is barely any more skewed but looks more extreme thanks to their team breakdowns.

Thanks for this!

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

More, if they're playing with first line players.

Probably, but their ice time would have increased in that situation as well.

 

[895]

Backstrom is actually having one of his best seasons ever too.

 

[seventieslord]

Probably, but their ice time would have increased in that situation as well.

Right, they'd score more both on the basis of their stronger linemates outweighing the stronger (defensive) opponents, and on the basis of more ice time.

I get the situation you're presenting, but it's deliberately absurd because those players would never stay together, remain a 3rd line, and begin facing dedicated checking units. If you put it in more realistic terms, those guys would be facing dedicated checkers, if they were getting first line minutes with high end linemates.

Anyway, the linemate piece is a YMMV thing for sure. As is the competition piece. But TOI shouldn't be controversial. Your production should be somewhat proportional to TOI.

Backstrom is actually having one of his best seasons ever too.

He's on pace for a 79 score which would knock off the 65 that is his 7th best, raising his score by 14.

 

[jarek]

Right, they'd score more both on the basis of their stronger linemates outweighing the stronger (defensive) opponents, and on the basis of more ice time.

I get the situation you're presenting, but it's deliberately absurd because those players would never stay together, remain a 3rd line, and begin facing dedicated checking units. If you put it in more realistic terms, those guys would be facing dedicated checkers, if they were getting first line minutes with high end linemates.

Anyway, the linemate piece is a YMMV thing for sure. As is the competition piece. But TOI shouldn't be controversial. Your production should be somewhat proportional to TOI.

We already have a very good metric for predicting what a guy would do with lower ice time: points per 60. This would work for modern players.

 

[seventieslord]

The more I think about it, the more I want to post a new list that adjusts everyone down to 12 ES minutes. It should really be shown how narrow the gap is and how much more offense you're really getting from these guys in limited minutes.

 

[seventieslord]

We already have a very good metric for predicting what a guy would do with lower ice time: points per 60. This would work for modern players.

main downsides are that it only exists for 2008 onwards, and it's a "rate statistic" which many people abhor here.

 

[jarek]

The more I think about it, the more I want to post a new list that adjusts everyone down to 12 ES minutes. It should really be shown how narrow the gap is and how much more offense you're really getting from these guys in limited minutes.

That would be the fairest way to present it.

I would leave off the guys who are 4th liners though. Jarvis, for example, is only going to get 8 ES minutes for me, and they are going to be very heavily skewed towards defensive zone starts.

 

[markrander87]

It's great info 70's but it's still situational and needs to be used as so. A guy like Gainey for example is low on this list however he was constantly used against opposing top lines. It's a lot easier to put up ES points when you're not being used to shut down top lines who will have a lot more time of possession and offensive zone end time. Compared to a Jamie Benn for example.

 

[jarek]

main downsides are that it only exists for 2008 onwards, and it's a "rate statistic" which many people abhor here.

In this particular case, it should be quite appropriate, no?

 

[jarek]

It's great info 70's but it's still situational and needs to be used as so. A guy like Gainey for example is low on this list however he was constantly used against opposing top lines. It's a lot easier to put up ES points when you're not being used to shut down top lines who will have a lot more time of possession and offensive zone end time. Compared to a Jamie Benn for example.

We've already discussed this, and you are correct.

There is no objective way to adjust each player's score for linemates and usage. Everyone is going to have to come to their own determination regarding this.

Benn and Getzlaf are going to be two guys, maybe THE two guys, who get most heavily pushed down based on linemates. Actually, Nik Backstrom would top this list quite easily.

 

[seventieslord]

It's great info 70's but it's still situational and needs to be used as so. A guy like Gainey for example is low on this list however he was constantly used against opposing top lines. It's a lot easier to put up ES points when you're not being used to shut down top lines who will have a lot more time of possession and offensive zone end time. Compared to a Jamie Benn for example.

Apparently it cuts both ways, because this is the exact opposite of what HT18 has been saying - that if Gainey was the one trying to score and checkers were checking him, he could come out even lower.

That's kinda why I think situation/competition is a wash or at least not nearly as important as TOI itself.

 

[seventieslord]

In this particular case, it should be quite appropriate, no?

If you want to add up the total ES minutes and ES points for each post-2008 player and determine their top-7 seasons from there and make a stat out of it, knock yourself out.

 

[seventieslord]

We've already discussed this, and you are correct.

We have, but it was the opposite argument being made.