Player Discussion Artem Zub (D) Part 2 [Extended 4 years @ $4.6M]

[Micklebot]

Say goodbye to the player.



And he'll get a bidding war.



8 years is maybe unreasonable but $6m isn't.



Every one of them is worse and they will all get paid a lot.

Who are the comparables you're using to get to 6 mil? Not a lot of defensive Dmen get over 5. If he wants to approach 6, he's going to need to position himself as a two way defender rather than the defensive conscience to Chabot.

 

[majormajor]

Who are the comparables you're using to get to 6 mil? Not a lot of defensive Dmen get over 5. If he wants to approach 6, he's going to need to position himself as a two way defender rather than the defensive conscience to Chabot.

It's going to be supply and demand for shutdown RD. There will be teams like Vancouver that will be desperate.

But if you want to talk about comparables, I don't think Zub has been too far behind Adam Pelech.

If you pull up on naturalstattrick a rank of D since the start of last year by GA/60 Rel (goals against rate relative to teammates), you'll see some expected names like Pelech and Heiskanen near the top of the list, and Zub at the very top.

A lot of that is going to be random but it sure seems to accord with what I see with my eyes that Zub is an exceptional defender.

I would hope to get him signed to a $5.5m x 5 deal but expect something a little higher.

 

[NyQuil]

The system is geared against defensive defencemen.

I think some of the numbers bandied around in here are too high.

 

[Micklebot]

It's going to be supply and demand for shutdown RD. There will be teams like Vancouver that will be desperate.

But if you want to talk about comparables, I don't think Zub has been too far behind Adam Pelech.

If you pull up on naturalstattrick a rank of D since the start of last year by GA/60 Rel (goals against rate relative to teammates), you'll see some expected names like Pelech and Heiskanen near the top of the list, and Zub at the very top.

A lot of that is going to be random but it sure seems to accord with what I see with my eyes that Zub is an exceptional defender.

I would hope to get him signed to a $5.5m x 5 deal but expect something a little higher.

Pelech is a bit different than Zub, he's a shutdown Dman on a shutdown pairing putting up close to ~30 pts while being on the top PK unit and getting no PP time, he's also a fair bit bigger which GMs go nuts for.

Zub acts as a defensive conscience to Chabot meaning he gets more favourable deployment, he plays on the 2nd Pk unit and likewise gets no PP time.

I don't think Zub has nearly the reputation that Pelech does, and he's a bit of an anomoly in terms of his contract. Using him as the basis that 6 isn't unreasonable seems a bit of a stretch since your arguing Zub deserves more in that context. Well have to wait and see but there are far more comparables in the 4 mil range than 6 mil, I'd wager Zub comes in around 4.75, give or take depending on term.


Edit: wrt rel stats, I wouldn't read too much into them at least not in isolation, rel stats punish guys on deep teams while rewarding those on teams without depth. We were the later, so Zub will stand out.

 

[Cosmix]

It'd be done by now in that case though. Dorion has shown that he's had his head surgically removed from his arse and I'm sure he recognizes his importance.

I suspect the head is still partially up there.

 

[SpezDispenser]

I suspect the head is still partially up there.

Perhaps partially, yeah.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

I'm sorry but some of you are out to lunch. 6M+?

Vancouver as a threat? With what cap space? They have 13M and they need to sign Horvat, Hogalnder, and 4 other bodies. They have no room for a 6M defenseman.

 

[UglyPuckling]

I'm sorry, but if Zub wants 6MX8 years, the Ottawa Senators can find a better way to spend that money.

Dumba, Klingberg, Severson, Mayfield, etc.. there are options and unlikely to be that many teams with cap room.

Yeah, I’m not sure how leverage Pierre has. Don’t let this be “Claesson can replace Methot” all over again.

Do we even have a physical RD in the system that can actually defend?

Ya, I don't want to pay him $6 m or whatever either, but all those good, "available" RDs will get snapped up pretty quickly I suspect. Got to wonder how many other NHL teams will be seeking a RD - 20, 25, who knows? Making a list is one thing. Landing one is another and not nearly as easy unfortunately. Just look at how long it took our provincial rivals to get a RD as an example.

 

[NyQuil]

Part of the reason why there aren't a lot of RD available is because they typically re-sign with their teams.

 

[JackieDaytona]

Show me a team that can afford to pay Zub $6m + on a long term deal, and I’ll show you a team that is unlikely to be a team that UFAs want to sign with.

 

[SensFactor]

Zub is not a $6M a year dman. He's awesome but he has his limitations offensively.
Sens should sign him at $4.5 x 5 years

 

[NyQuil]

Anything more than $5M to me seems expensive.

$4.5M I think is a bit of a bargain, and my expectations are closer to that $5M mark.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

Show me a team that can afford to pay Zub $6m + on a long term deal, and I’ll show you a team that is unlikely to be a team that UFAs want to sign with.

Exactly

Who are these teams with tons of cap room and need a RHD?

Anaheim who has Klingberg and Shattenkirk as UFAs?
Arizona? They're going to drop 6M on Zub? Zub si going to sign there?
Buffalo has enough RHD already.
Blackhawks have Jones and Murphy at 9.5M and 4.4M respectively.
Devils have Marino and Hamilton
Vancouver will want him, but they barely have cap room for their existing players, let alone a new 6M defenseman.


There will obviously be somebody out there, a Montreal, a Philadelphia, etc.. someone with both a need, cap room, budget space, and a lack of alternatives, but are they really going to offer THAT much more than Ottawa?

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

An aggregate of players who A) are RHD or have played RD, b) have signed in the last 2yrs, c) would have been/were UFAs, d) have signed for between 5.5m-6.5m:
- Age: 29.5yrs
- Term: 7yrs
- Salary: $6.25m
- Goals (2yrs before signing): 13.16g
- Points (2yrs before signing): 61.67pts
- Minutes (2yrs before signing): 23:05min
- Cups (total): 0.66

An aggregate of players who A) are RHD or have played RD, b) have signed in the last 2yrs, c) would have been/were UFAs, d) have signed for between 4.5m-5.5m:
- Age: 29.875yrs
- Term: 3.67yrs
- Salary: $4.6m
- Goals (2yrs before signing): 9.3 goals
- Points (2yrs before signing): 43pts
- Minutes (2yrs before signing): 20:50min
- Cups (total): 0.5

Zub:
- Age: 27yrs
- Goals (2yrs before signing): 9 goals
- Points (2yrs before signing): 36pts
- Minutes (2yrs before signing): 20:04m
- Cups (total): 0

IMO he is firmly in that 4.5m-5m range. Could work himself into the $5.5m range with a big season, as those numbers do underrate him a bit. Talk of 6.5m-7m, well, I have no clue where that comes from.

 

[Sensinitis]

I can see him basically getting the same contract as Zaitsev.

He's not offensive enough to command 5M+ imo, and he seems humble enough to know that's a lot of money and to recognize this team is the one who gave him a chance in the big leagues

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Exactly

Who are these teams with tons of cap room and need a RHD?

Anaheim who has Klingberg and Shattenkirk as UFAs?
Arizona? They're going to drop 6M on Zub? Zub si going to sign there?
Buffalo has enough RHD already.
Blackhawks have Jones and Murphy at 9.5M and 4.4M respectively.
Devils have Marino and Hamilton
Vancouver will want him, but they barely have cap room for their existing players, let alone a new 6M defenseman.


There will obviously be somebody out there, a Montreal, a Philadelphia, etc.. someone with both a need, cap room, budget space, and a lack of alternatives, but are they really going to offer THAT much more than Ottawa?

Toronto has a whole lot of nothing on the right side and Muzzin will probably LTIRetire. I could see them offer 5.5 mil with bonuses.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

Toronto has a whole lot of nothing on the right side and Muzzin will probably LTIRetire..

Even if You LTIR Muzzin, AND the cap goes up to 86.5M, that's around 19.9M for 6 forwards, 2 defensemen, and an Arbitration eligible Samsonov. Oh, and one of the forwards they need to sign is UFA Bunting.

I sincerely doubt Toronto of all teams is a threat.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I can see him basically getting the same contract as Zaitsev.

He's not offensive enough to command 5M+ imo, and he seems humble enough to know that's a lot of money and to recognize this team is the one who gave him a chance in the big leagues

That would be amazing, but I think there is a good chance he goes mid-term (3-5yrs). He is still pretty young and new to the NHL, there's no reason why he can't be a better player in 3yrs or a similar level player in 5yrs, and the cap could go way, way up.

If we want to go beyond 5 yrs, I think we need to go beyond $5m. It is pretty rare for guys to sign longterm deals under $5m. Exceptions of 6+ year deals under $5m:
- Mattias Samuelsson, 7yrs 4.3m - but he will only be giving up 3 UFA years, will have just turned 30 upon expiry, and signed with 56 career games and 0 goals to his record
- Nick Paul, 7yrs 3.15m - coming off a cup, low tax rate, and at a $ amount well above what he was offered by Ottawa a few months prior
- Jesperi Kotkanimi, 8yrs x 4.82m - will bring him to UFA at age 29 with almost $50m career earnings, and he signed it with a career total of 91pts in 237 games
- Zach Whitecloud, 6yrs x 2.75m - career high of 19pts, will take him to age 31

Those are the only 4 signed in the last year. The summer before that there was Batherson (6x4.9m), Cizikas (6x2.5m), Coleman (6x4.9m), Goodrow (6x3.65m) and Carlo (6x4.1m).

 

[Wallet Inspector]

5 mil is more than fair, and there's no chance another team doesn't offer him at least that much if he goes to UFA.

 

[cudi]

GMs do insane things during UFA time. I dont think he'd get 6+, but i also wouldnt be making the pikachu face if he did get that much.

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

I wonder if our teams’s long term injuries factors into financial security considerations. Waiting to FA is a risk.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

Given the way the cap has been the past few years, his relatively injury-free career, and his relatively young age, to me, the bigger threat is that teams would would give him a longer term to bring down AAV. Of the older RFA and UFA guys (25+) who got 4M+ contracts:

Samuelsson 7
Weegar got 8
Sanheim 8
Sergachev 8
Cernak 8
Lindholm 8
Letang was 35 and got a 6 year deal!
Reilley 8
McAvoy 8
Pulock 8
Parayko 8
Nurse 8
Hamilton 8
Pietrangelo 7
Pelech 8
Krug 7
Brodin 7
Jones 8
Josi 8
Falk 7
Spurgeon 7
Morrissey 8

Almost all those guys are much bigger names than Zub. I don't see him fitting that echelon.

Only a few guys in their mid 20's got short deals (1-3) year like DeAngelo, Schultz, Barrie, Klingberg and Zadorov. Mostly odd-ball contracts where guys are rebuilding value.

You don't see a lot of -5 year contracts. Toews, Oleksiak, Larsson, Murphy, McCabe, and Ristolainen are the only ones I found who got them in their mid-to-late 20's almost all of them were defensive defensemen though.

Chiarot, Leddy, Ekholm, Martinez, Tanev, Gudbranson, Muzzin, Petry, Brodie, and Manson and others who got 4-5 years each were all over 30. Which makes sense they would ahve gotten 6-8 year deals had they been UFAs in their 20's but were just too old or not good enough to get them in their 30's.


Personally, I still think Zub's situation is closest to guys like Toews, Oleksiak, Larsson, Murphy, McCabe, and Ristolainen. which are all in the 40-5.1M range and 4-5 years.

If we gave him 4.5MX5 years that seems right on the money as far as market goes.

 

[GCK]

Couple of weeks for Zub with an upper body injury.

Chabot JBD
Sanderson Hamonic
Brannstrom Holden

 

[BradyTkachucky]

Couple of weeks for Zub with an upper body injury.

Chabot JBD
Sanderson Hamonic
Brannstrom Holden

Ugh that right side looks awful

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Couple of weeks for Zub with an upper body injury.

Chabot JBD
Sanderson Hamonic
Brannstrom Holden

Sucks ..