Player Discussion Artem Zub (D) Part 2 [Extended 4 years @ $4.6M]

[Gil Gunderson]

The concerning part is that it sounds like the player has not been approached by the team yet. Shawn Simpson is saying that as well as Ian mendes in his recent article on Zub.

I find that hard to believe. It should be all Dorion is trying to do right now.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Yea, I 100% doubt Zub has not been approached yet, lol.

This is all Zub. We want him.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Any validity to this?

 

[Johnny Hanson]

Yea, I 100% doubt Zub has not been approached yet, lol.

This is all Zub. We want him.

Zubs agent is saying differently.

 

[SlapJack]

My gut feeling is that Zub wants to stay but his agent is taking the wait and see approach for maximizing $. He knows the situation on the right side and that the cap is going up. Whatever you hear about negotiations on Twitter is just a bunch of bullshit speculation or agent bullshit

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Zubs agent is saying differently.

On one hand that could be good news knowing he hasn't refused a serious offer. On the other hand, I'm not entirely sure how high Dorion is on Zub. He even said (who knows how much is lip service) that Zub was given a two-year deal because they expect JBD/Thomson to eventually be ready. Letting Zub walk would undo a lot of good Dorion has done.

Even if we get Chychrun and Zub walks, I'm not exactly thrilled.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Any validity to this?

wtf

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Zubs agent is saying differently.

May be a negotiation tactic to put as much pressure on Dorion as possible.

I wouldn't put much stock in what the agent says. Zub is going to get one shot at maximizing his earnings, this is it for him.

As much as I'd like to keep Zub, if (and it is a big if) one of jBD/Thomson can do his job then that may be the right way to go.

Waiting to see how they perform when called up this year may be the most cost effectice move. Especially if it allows us to extend DBC.

 

[SlapJack]

On one hand that could be good news knowing he hasn't refused a serious offer. On the other hand, I'm not entirely sure how high Dorion is on Zub. He even said (who knows how much is lip service) that Zub was given a two-year deal because they expect JBD/Thomson to eventually be ready. Letting Zub walk would undo a lot of good Dorion has done.

Even if we get Chychrun and Zub walks, I'm not exactly thrilled.

Say what you will about Dorion as everyone has their own take about his competence, but there's no way he does not see the value in Zub.

When he signed him to a 2 year contract, seems like it was either more of a cautious approach where they don't want one year of play influencing contract value like Zaitsev, or the agent was banking on Zub getting more if he takes a "bridge".

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Say what you will about Dorion as everyone has their own take about his competence, but there's no way he does not see the value in Zub.

When he signed him to a 2 year contract, seems like it was either more of a cautious approach where they don't want one year of play influencing contract value like Zaitsev, or the agent was banking on Zub getting more if he takes a "bridge".

Ya that's where I'm at on this. You can't have watched these last two games and think he's easily replaceable. Doesn't guarantee he gets signed, but I have full faith Dorion sees what most of us here do. The guy is basically a core player.

 

[Slippy]

Say what you will about Dorion as everyone has their own take about his competence, but there's no way he does not see the value in Zub.

When he signed him to a 2 year contract, seems like it was either more of a cautious approach where they don't want one year of play influencing contract value like Zaitsev, or the agent was banking on Zub getting more if he takes a "bridge".

I don't see why more don't see it as Zub, and certainly more precisely his agent, wanting to get to UFA as early as possible. After one year good in North America, why would you lock yourself into a long deal if you feel your value is only going to improve and you have the opportunity to hit the open market soon. I think too much is made of Dorion's comment. I don't think the Zub campaign was going to accept anything but a massive overpayment for UFA years when he signed his current deal.

 

[Nova Stutzlia]

I missed this one last night.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Nowhere in that tweet, or any of them I have read, indicate that the team hasn’t reached out.

I have an easier time believing that Zub’s agent wants to leverage UFA to get a bigger deal, as there really is no rush for him to negotiate at all right now unless Dorion has given him a hard deadline.

I would be disappointed to learn that PD hasn’t reached out to talk extension, but who knows. Zub might be the guy the team actually has to overpay most for given that he’s the only guy that has real leverage. It is entirely possible that Zub prices himself off the team.

 

[JD1]

Waiting to sign Zub has been the right play all along for a number of reasons

1. We've got a locked in left side with Kleven in the wings and we've been kicking tires on Chychrun to play right D
2. Salary cap uncertainty. We know it's going to be tight but it looks like there might be some relief.
3. Thomson and JBD are right there. Both first rounders, both nearly fully cooked.
4. Like him or not, Zaitsev is signed next year and a right side of Chychrun, Thomson, JBD and Zaitsev is possible
5. DeBrincat could chew up a lot of cap making the Belleville boys necessary

Clarity is coming on the cap. But waiting to see what happens with the above is important

There's lots of time to get a Zub deal done. He certainly looks like a happy camper and gets unreal appreciation from the fanbase. I can't see him not wanting to be here, but sometimes these things take time

We also haven't had to manage against a cap in 15 years. There will be casualties. If not Zub, somebody else. We should get used to that.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Waiting to sign Zub has been the right play all along for a number of reasons

1. We've got a locked in left side with Kleven in the wings and we've been kicking tires on Chychrun to play right D
2. Salary cap uncertainty. We know it's going to be tight but it looks like there might be some relief.
3. Thomson and JBD are right there. Both first rounders, both nearly fully cooked.
4. Like him or not, Zaitsev is signed next year and a right side of Chychrun, Thomson, JBD and Zaitsev is possible
5. DeBrincat could chew up a lot of cap making the Belleville boys necessary

Clarity is coming on the cap. But waiting to see what happens with the above is important

There's lots of time to get a Zub deal done. He certainly looks like a happy camper and gets unreal appreciation from the fanbase. I can't see him not wanting to be here, but sometimes these things take time

We also haven't had to manage against a cap in 15 years. There will be casualties. If not Zub, somebody else. We should get used to that.

I think we should stick with the guy we know, if he'll sign, and forego any Chychrun move. JBD and Thomson can take over for Hamonic, Holden & Zaitsev as they age out/expire, while leaving Zub where he is. Allows the young guys to ease in with a superior player above them rather than expecting them to come in and fill RD slot 1 & 2 like we'd need without Zub.

 

[Micklebot]

I think we should stick with the guy we know, if he'll sign, and forego any Chychrun move. JBD and Thomson can take over for Hamonic, Holden & Zaitsev as they age out/expire, while leaving Zub where he is. Allows the young guys to ease in with a superior player above them rather than expecting them to come in and fill RD slot 1 & 2 like we'd need without Zub.

That's the route I'd take as well. I like Chychrun but his health scares me a bit. I think JBD (edit: meant Sanderson could bring along a rookie like JBD, oops) will quickly be able to bring along a rookie instead of being the guy that needs a guy to bring him along.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Waiting to sign Zub has been the right play all along for a number of reasons

1. We've got a locked in left side with Kleven in the wings and we've been kicking tires on Chychrun to play right D
2. Salary cap uncertainty. We know it's going to be tight but it looks like there might be some relief.
3. Thomson and JBD are right there. Both first rounders, both nearly fully cooked.
4. Like him or not, Zaitsev is signed next year and a right side of Chychrun, Thomson, JBD and Zaitsev is possible
5. DeBrincat could chew up a lot of cap making the Belleville boys necessary

Clarity is coming on the cap. But waiting to see what happens with the above is important

There's lots of time to get a Zub deal done. He certainly looks like a happy camper and gets unreal appreciation from the fanbase. I can't see him not wanting to be here, but sometimes these things take time

We also haven't had to manage against a cap in 15 years. There will be casualties. If not Zub, somebody else. We should get used to that.

Trading assets for Chychrun just to let Zub walk would be a huge mistake.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

That's the route I'd take as well. I like Chychrun but his health scares me a bit. I think JBD will quickly be able to bring along a rookie instead of being the guy that needs a guy to bring him along.

Those injuries are indeed concerning. The bonus of that scenario would be no assets paid other than a contract to Zub, so we could easily justify paying an asset to move Zaitsev if necessary for cap/budget management.

Not everyone loves him, but Hamonic has given this team some flexibility as a quasi top 4 guy for now imo.

 

[JD1]

I didn't say what I'd prefer, I simply listed a series of reasons why this is playing out.

I personally wouldn't trade a bunch of assets for a frequently injured player either

 

[PlayOn]

Waiting to sign Zub has been the right play all along for a number of reasons

1. We've got a locked in left side with Kleven in the wings and we've been kicking tires on Chychrun to play right D
2. Salary cap uncertainty. We know it's going to be tight but it looks like there might be some relief.
3. Thomson and JBD are right there. Both first rounders, both nearly fully cooked.
4. Like him or not, Zaitsev is signed next year and a right side of Chychrun, Thomson, JBD and Zaitsev is possible
5. DeBrincat could chew up a lot of cap making the Belleville boys necessary

Clarity is coming on the cap. But waiting to see what happens with the above is important

There's lots of time to get a Zub deal done. He certainly looks like a happy camper and gets unreal appreciation from the fanbase. I can't see him not wanting to be here, but sometimes these things take time

We also haven't had to manage against a cap in 15 years. There will be casualties. If not Zub, somebody else. We should get used to that.

I can live with cap casualties but not sure it’s wise for them to come from what is likely the weakest part of our roster in our RD. They’re also nearly impossible to sign or trade for, at least the good ones.

 

[aragorn]

Everyone can see Zub's value to this team including the players & management. I'm sure when the time is right & the price is agreed upon they will get this done. They have to keep Zub if they are losing three UFA veterans Holden, Zaitsev & maybe Hamonic at season's end. JBD & Thomson will likely replace two of those UFAs.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

The supposed plyer we’re looking for is closer to Zub than Chychrun. We’re not a better team with that swap.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

Hopefully something gets done. Anything under 5 would help with the cap.

Edit: I should add that no one should hold their breath. If it isn't done by October 31st, then they typically these extensions get done around March before the deadline if they get done at all. Look at last year for instance. It was pretty typical:

The last RFAs get done in October. Holdouts like Tkachuk. Sometimes you get big name RFAs with lots of years left. Last season it was guys like Pulock, Hughes, Fox, Suzuki, etc.. Occasionally you get UFA (or last season RFA) guys like Ekholm, McAvoy, and Rielly but only a few per season. Then there is a dearth after the 31st until the deadline. Last season, the only major contracts between October 31st and March were Fabbri and McNabb who were both mid-level guys at best.

Then you get basically nothing until March but then we had Ristolainen, McCann, Hertl, Lindholm, and Forsberg.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

I did some queries with the similarity tool and I found a couple good comparable players for Zub's situation. I was looking for good defensemen, limited offensively, with limited NHL experience but going to UFA at age 27 who signed longer term deals. Then I used my best judgment to identify guys.

In 2014, Alec Martinez signed for 6X4M. Equates to around 4.8M over 6 years when you adjust for cap.

In 2013 Hjarlmarsson signed for 5 years at 4.1M. Equates to 5.3M X 5 years when you adjust for cap.

In 2014 Justin Braun signed for 3.8M X 5 years. Equivalent to about 4.6M X 5.

Emelin in 2013 4.1 X 4 years, so about 5.3X4 years when you adjust.


Other guys like Chiarot (older but signed for 4.75 X 4), Oleksiak (4.6M X 5 years), Ristolainen (5X5.1M) and CDH (4,55M X4) came up as well.


Honestly, I feel better and better about a 5X5 deal. I don't think it is outrageous considering the comparable players.

Edit: Worst comparable (for us) would be Schmidt, Alzner, or Andrew MacDonald

 

[majormajor]

The supposed plyer we’re looking for is closer to Zub than Chychrun. We’re not a better team with that swap.

Agreed and it is kind of ridiculous.

I think Zub is at least as good a defender if not better. Chychrun gets a big boost in value from his shot but you have to play him on the PP to get that benefit and then you're cutting Sanderson or Chabot's PP production. He's not a great puckmover or passer. And whether he can play RD at the top of the lineup is suspect. Trading assets for Chychrun while letting Zub walk would burn assets and potentially be a downgrade at the position.

I did some queries with the similarity tool and I found a couple good comparable players for Zub's situation. I was looking for good defensemen, limited offensively, with limited NHL experience but going to UFA at age 27 who signed longer term deals. Then I used my best judgment to identify guys.

In 2014, Alec Martinez signed for 6X4M. Equates to around 4.8M over 6 years when you adjust for cap.

In 2013 Hjarlmarsson signed for 5 years at 4.1M. Equates to 5.3M X 5 years when you adjust for cap.

In 2014 Justin Braun signed for 3.8M X 5 years. Equivalent to about 4.6M X 5.

Emelin in 2013 4.1 X 4 years, so about 5.3X4 years when you adjust.


Other guys like Chiarot (older but signed for 4.75 X 4), Oleksiak (4.6M X 5 years), Ristolainen (5X5.1M) and CDH (4,55M X4) came up as well.


Honestly, I feel better and better about a 5X5 deal. I don't think it is outrageous considering the comparable players.

Edit: Worst comparable (for us) would be Schmidt, Alzner, or Andrew MacDonald

That tool is worse than useless.