Player Discussion Artem Zub (D) Part 2 [Extended 4 years @ $4.6M]

[Sweatred]

You implied he wasn’t good on the PK which is wrong

Oh that’s totally wrong.

I said he’s not a PK#1 type guy to me. He’s definelty useful on the PK.

I just want a better guy leading the PK than Zub… and if it’s not Sanderson we have to get that guy (IMO) which pushes Zub down a slot.

 

[GCK]

Oh that’s totally wrong.

I said he’s not a PK#1 type guy to me. He’s definelty useful on the PK.

I just want a better guy leading the PK than Zub… and if it’s not Sanderson we have to get that guy (IMO) which pushes Zub down a slot.

We can disagree and that’s fine. Zub is very good on the PK IMO.

 

[Sweatred]

We can disagree and that’s fine. Zub is very good on the PK IMO.

Do you think he’s a PK#1 type guy ? Is he the guy you think will backstop the Defense to the playoffs or cup?

 

[GCK]

Do you think he’s a PK#1 type guy ? Is he the guy you think will backstop the Defense to the playoffs or cup?

I think Zub is a vey good 2nd pair guy who is effective on the PK. I feel he could easily complement a true elite 1LD. In a vacuum he is a 4.5M x 5 Dman, in Ottawa I think he could get overpaid at 5M AAV.

 

[Micklebot]

Do you think he’s a PK#1 type guy ? Is he the guy you think will backstop the Defense to the playoffs or cup?

The team had one of its best stretches of the year on the PK in the 13 games he filled in on the top PK unit while Zaitsev was injured, so yeah, he could probably be a top PK unit guy, he's done nothing to show he can't.

 

[Micklebot]

I think Zub is a vey good 2nd pair guy who is effective on the PK. I feel he could easily complement a true elite 1LD. In a vacuum he is a 4.5M x 5 Dman, in Ottawa I think he could get overpaid at 5M AAV.

I said earlier in this thread I thought fair market was likely 4.5 for him, then after adjusting the comparables for cap hit % on the date signed, shifted my assessment to as high as 4.75. if he gets 5 from us that's a slight overpayment but within reason imo, I wouldn't go past that myself, but I don't think we have anything to worry about if he's on or top PK unit.

 

[Sweatred]

I think Zub is a vey good 2nd pair guy who is effective on the PK. I feel he could easily complement a true elite 1LD. In a vacuum he is a 4.5M x 5 Dman, in Ottawa I think he could get overpaid at 5M AAV.

Ya - I’m close … to me that’s a 4D and a slight over payment. I’m not sure in our upcoming cap crunch we want to pay UFA’s the Ottberia tax to stay here.

As you said … he’s not a 1LD. You skirted around it but I sense you don’t think he is the ideal shut down dman either.

 

[playasRus]

I said earlier in this thread I thought fair market was likely 4.5 for him, then after adjusting the comparables for cap hit % on the date signed, shifted my assessment to as high as 4.75. if he gets 5 from us that's a slight overpayment but within reason imo, I wouldn't go past that myself, but I don't think we have anything to worry about if he's on or top PK unit.

5M probably won't affect our ability to retain talent in 2-3 years.

I'm totally okay keeping the second best defenseman on the team, knowing there are rarely better D available. If we snag another top 4 in the next 1-2 years, we become a guaranteed playoff team if we keep Zub.

 

[JD1]

Here's a list of D men by aav.

2024 NHL Rankings

Listing the top salaries, cap hits, cash, earnings, contracts, and bonuses, for all active NHL players.

www.spotrac.com

4 top 4 per team, 32 team league, that gets you to 2.5m on the bottom end, around the 125 to 130 top aav mark.

Now, there's obviously guys on ELCs playing top 4 and guys on that top 130 list that aren't playing top 4 anymore but are getting paid.

If we sign Stuetzle and DeBrincat wants to stay, we're running in to cap issues. One of the first casualties of cap issues might well be Zub unless he signs a team friendly deal. Our higher paid D are going to be LD in Chabot and Sanderson.

Zub may well be done this year because we can't fit him in salary wise. It is not outlandish that we run a right side with some combo of Thomson, JBD, Brannstrom and Hamonic.

I just don't see Zub fitting here salary wise at 5M. The numbers just don't add.

 

[playasRus]

Here's a list of D men by aav.

2024 NHL Rankings

Listing the top salaries, cap hits, cash, earnings, contracts, and bonuses, for all active NHL players.

www.spotrac.com

4 top 4 per team, 32 team league, that gets you to 2.5m on the bottom end, around the 125 to 130 top aav mark.

Now, there's obviously guys on ELCs playing top 4 and guys on that top 130 list that aren't playing top 4 anymore but are getting paid.

If we sign Stuetzle and DeBrincat wants to stay, we're running in to cap issues. One of the first casualties of cap issues might well be Zub unless he signs a team friendly deal. Our higher paid D are going to be LD in Chabot and Sanderson.

Zub may well be done this year because we can't fit him in salary wise. It is not outlandish that we run a right side with some combo of Thomson, JBD, Brannstrom and Hamonic.

I just don't see Zub fitting here salary wise at 5M. The numbers just don't add.

Would the team be better off with
DeBrincat at 9M and whatever rag tag D we can scrum up at league min
Or
Zub at 5M and another top 4 D at 4M e.g. Severson, Moore...etc.?

 

[swiftwin]

Would the team be better off with
DeBrincat at 9M and whatever rag tag D we can scrum up at league min
Or
Zub at 5M and another top 4 D at 4M e.g. Severson, Moore...etc.?

Option A, without a doubt. 40+ goal scorer >>> 2nd pair defenseman.

Zub can be replaced by JBD/Thompson.

Players like DeBrincat don't grow on trees.

 

[Que]

Option A, without a doubt. 40+ goal scorer >>> 2nd pair defenseman.

Zub can be replaced by JBD/Thompson.

Players like DeBrincat don't grow on trees.

As a fan base we are not ready for how good DeBrincat is.

Like - at all.

And he’s playing on a much better team in Ottawa.

We’ll find a way to keep Zub.

 

[Micklebot]

I just don't see Zub fitting here salary wise at 5M. The numbers just don't add.

That's a valid concern, but I think Zub is still pretty tradable at 5 mil, especially once the cap starts raising again. Next year is the tricky one, after that, we have two things going our way, the cap should start rising a bit quicker assuming Daly is right, and a bunch of buyout and retention money comes off the books.

There are a couple ways we can try to make things work next year if we were to re-sign Zub;

- Dump Zaitsev, this one is close to a must.
- Bridge Stutzle, not ideal but it would get us through that one year.
- Trade Formenton, I'm assuming he want's something approaching Joseph's deal. Greig fills in for him.
- play both of JBD and Thomson, that gives us two cheap D assuming JBD doesn't really take off and demand too much
- Play Sogaard as the backup or sign a cheap journeyman goalie.

It's possible, to get us under the 83.5 cap, but we're tight and taking a lot of risk with JBD and Thomson, but when the alternative is trying to replace Zub and also bring in someone else instead of them, Idk that you can get better results for cheaper.

 

[UglyPuckling]

That's a valid concern, but I think Zub is still pretty tradable at 5 mil, especially once the cap starts raising again. Next year is the tricky one, after that, we have two things going our way, the cap should start rising a bit quicker assuming Daly is right, and a bunch of buyout and retention money comes off the books.

There are a couple ways we can try to make things work next year if we were to re-sign Zub;

- Dump Zaitsev, this one is close to a must.
- Bridge Stutzle, not ideal but it would get us through that one year.
- Trade Formenton, I'm assuming he want's something approaching Joseph's deal. Greig fills in for him.
- play both of JBD and Thomson, that gives us two cheap D assuming JBD doesn't really take off and demand too much
- Play Sogaard as the backup or sign a cheap journeyman goalie.

It's possible, to get us under the 83.5 cap, but we're tight and taking a lot of risk with JBD and Thomson, but when the alternative is trying to replace Zub and also bring in someone else instead of them, Idk that you can get better results for cheaper.

Yes, I had similar ideas a ways back.

 

[Sweatred]

Sometimes Zub plays like a $4.5 D and sometimes he plays like a $3.5 D.

It’s an overpay to handout $5x5 without taking another look at the player, especially now that the team is improving.

 

[Sweatred]

That's a valid concern, but I think Zub is still pretty tradable at 5 mil, especially once the cap starts raising again. Next year is the tricky one, after that, we have two things going our way, the cap should start rising a bit quicker assuming Daly is right, and a bunch of buyout and retention money comes off the books.

There are a couple ways we can try to make things work next year if we were to re-sign Zub;

- Dump Zaitsev, this one is close to a must.
- Bridge Stutzle, not ideal but it would get us through that one year.
- Trade Formenton, I'm assuming he want's something approaching Joseph's deal. Greig fills in for him.
- play both of JBD and Thomson, that gives us two cheap D assuming JBD doesn't really take off and demand too much
- Play Sogaard as the backup or sign a cheap journeyman goalie.

It's possible, to get us under the 83.5 cap, but we're tight and taking a lot of risk with JBD and Thomson, but when the alternative is trying to replace Zub and also bring in someone else instead of them, Idk that you can get better results for cheaper.

Zub is only tradeable at $5 million if his play is good and supporting the contact. Everyone thought Z and White would be tradable too but that was obviously proved wrong because their play was so poor.

If you over pay a $4 million defensman and his play slides you’re not moving him easily.

 

[JD1]

That's a valid concern, but I think Zub is still pretty tradable at 5 mil, especially once the cap starts raising again. Next year is the tricky one, after that, we have two things going our way, the cap should start rising a bit quicker assuming Daly is right, and a bunch of buyout and retention money comes off the books.

There are a couple ways we can try to make things work next year if we were to re-sign Zub;

- Dump Zaitsev, this one is close to a must.
- Bridge Stutzle, not ideal but it would get us through that one year.
- Trade Formenton, I'm assuming he want's something approaching Joseph's deal. Greig fills in for him.
- play both of JBD and Thomson, that gives us two cheap D assuming JBD doesn't really take off and demand too much
- Play Sogaard as the backup or sign a cheap journeyman goalie.

It's possible, to get us under the 83.5 cap, but we're tight and taking a lot of risk with JBD and Thomson, but when the alternative is trying to replace Zub and also bring in someone else instead of them, Idk that you can get better results for cheaper.

A few posts ago I said a Zub signing might be held up by the org getting a 40 game look at where Brannstrom, JBD and Thomson are.

Zub is never going to play PP minutes with this team. Chabot, Sanderson and the Brannstrom will play ahead of him. So he's a pk and 5 on 5 guy.

And we're all hoping that Sanderson is a stud. Assuming he is, you've got 2 LD studs that are anchoring pairs. The Dobson deal recently was good for us. Maybe Sanderson ends up bridged at this level

There's just likely to be a compromise along the way and with Zub due a deal and two kids knocking on the door, Zub might be the compromise

Only so much cap and salary to go around

 

[UglyPuckling]

There's just likely to be a compromise along the way and with Zub due a deal and two kids knocking on the door, Zub might be the compromise

Only so much cap and salary to go around

Ya, when you try to sign all of Zub, Stutzle, and Debrincat to long term contracts, the numbers get pretty tight. A lot depends on whether we stick with a budget below the ceiling, and how much it would be below the ceiling. I've been mentioning this for some time now.

Not sure what the solution is. It could be better to have more offensive firepower, but having some question marks or concerns with two RDs slots isn't ideal either. There's some difficult decisions that need to made by Dorion in the not too distant future for sure.

 

[Micklebot]

Zub is only tradeable at $5 million if his play is good and supporting the contact. Everyone thought Z and White would be tradable too but that was obviously proved wrong because their play was so poor.

If you over pay a $4 million defensman and his play slides you’re not moving him easily.

The point made about White was his contact could be bought out at 1/3 greatly mitigating the risk if he busted and if he kept up his performance and continued to improve it had the potential to be a bargain making it low risk with high reward potential. Zub has given us two seasons of solid top 4 play, and we'll have this season to judge him off as well, Toronto gave Zaitsev a long term deal after 1 season, there's a substantial difference there. Things can always go sideways if a player runs into in injury issues but we have enough viewings to have a very good idea of what Zub is, there aren't any signs that point towards him falling off a cliff in the next few years.

 

[Xspyrit]

You need to have a MAX that you're ready to pay for players. IMO, it would be :

Stutzle, DeBrincat, Chabot : 9 M$
Tkachuk, Norris, Batherson : 8 M$
Zub : 4.5 M$
Joseph : 2.5 M$

Rest are either role players or in development (ELCs) so hard to say what they'll be

 

[Sweatred]

The point made about White was his contact could be bought out at 1/3 greatly mitigating the risk if he busted and if he kept up his performance and continued to improve it had the potential to be a bargain making it low risk with high reward potential. Zub has given us two seasons of solid top 4 play, and we'll have this season to judge him off as well, Toronto gave Zaitsev a long term deal after 1 season, there's a substantial difference there. Things can always go sideways if a player runs into in injury issues but we have enough viewings to have a very good idea of what Zub is, there aren't any signs that point towards him falling off a cliff in the next few years.

More than anything I’d like another 40 games to decide who he is.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Played with the spreadsheet & this is what I came up with for 2023-24.

$80.2 m total with 22 players but, could be a tad optimistic with:

• Debincat signing a $8.3 m X 8 years contract
• Stutzle signing a $8.25 m X 8 year contract
• Formenton replaced with "XXX" player at $2 m
• Pinto at $3m
• Zub resigns at $4.75 m (x 5 years???)

Even if both Debrincat & Stutzle sign $9 m contracts, the total would be $81.625 m. All of these scenarios involve us going above the self-imposed cap that we have in place now (i.e., the same percentage below cap). This roster also has three rookies/ELCs on the blueline, and a rookie in net.

Tkachuk 8.205
Norris 7.950
Batherson 4.975
Total Line 1: $21.13 m

Debrincat 8.3 (resigned to 8-year contract)
Stutzle 8.25 (8 year contract)
Giroux 6.5
Total Line 2: $23.05 m

Joesph 2.95
Pinto 3.0 (resigned)
XXX 2.0 (Formenton replaced with a $2 m AAV)
Total Line 3: $7.95 m

Kelly .763
Gambrell/replacement .950
XXX .800
Total Line 4 $2.513 m

Chabot 8.0
Zub 4.75 (new contract)
1st pair total $12.75 m

Sanderson .925
JBD .925
2nd pair total $1.850

Thomson .863
Brannstrom 1.4 (signed to short term contract)
3rd pair total: $2.263 m

Forsberg 2.75
Sogaard .925
Goalie total: $3.674 m

Murray retained 1.562
Buyout:
B Ryan 1.833
C. White .875
MDZ .750
Total retained/buyouts $5.02 m

Forward #13 .800
Defender #7 .800

TOTAL $80.2 M

NOTES:
22 player roster
Bonuses not included

 

[JD1]

More than anything I’d like another 40 games to decide who he is.

I think the team knows what Zub is.

Another 40 games helps them know what they have in Brannstrom, Thomson and JBD

The team has already said that they think Brannstrom has another step and someone posted he's put on good weight

 

[Micklebot]

I think the team knows what Zub is.

Another 40 games helps them know what they have in Brannstrom, Thomson and JBD

The team has already said that they think Brannstrom has another step and someone posted he's put on good weight

If the team can't figure out what Zub is after 2 years of him playing in our top 4 we should probably go get new pro scouting and coaching. This isn't a case of a young kid still developing, he's 26 with 7 years of pro hockey under his belt.

 

[GCK]

You need to have a MAX that you're ready to pay for players. IMO, it would be :

Stutzle, DeBrincat, Chabot : 9 M$
Tkachuk, Norris, Batherson : 8 M$
Zub : 4.5 M$
Joseph : 2.5 M$

Rest are either role players or in development (ELCs) so hard to say what they'll be

Debrincat is not a 9M player regardless of his QO. If he wants more than 8M you move him.