Player Discussion Artem Zub (D) Part 2 [Extended 4 years @ $4.6M]

[Sweatred]

He does PK, what are you talking about.

Did I say he didn’t PK ? I’m reading what I wrote and I honestly can’t see how you would interpret that I suggested he didn’t PK…

 

[Ice-Tray]

I don’t mind Zub at 4-5 long term, but that should be the ceiling for defensive guys.

I would lock Zub up and be happy with a guaranteed top 3 and let the battle begin for the #4 spot and the bottom pair.

 

[Sweatred]

I don’t mind Zub at 4-5 long term, but that should be the ceiling for defensive guys.

I would lock Zub up and be happy with a guaranteed top 3 and let the battle begin for the #4 spot and the bottom pair.

That’s fair - 4-5’s don’t make $5 of you want your 1-2’s to make 8.

 

[ijif]

Too much for a player that can’t provide an essential role to the team.

He projects as a 3-6 PP option for a league that runs 1-2 D max on the PP

He’s a serviceable penalty killer … but far from a stopper. A good team needs two better PKillers then Zub.

He’s a nice 3-4 DMAN who doesn’t have an elite role on the team. That’s not worth $5 million. Games are won and lost off the PP/PK.

Since joining the NHL and strictly looking at defenders, Zub is tied for the 10th highest SH WAR. The only players ahead of him are Slavin, Pesce, Forbort, Andersson, Carlo, Brodie, Shattenkirk, Hakanpaa, and Gudas. He is 76th in overall WAR for defenders.

He might not be worth 5 million, but it has nothing to do with his ability to PK.

 

[Que]

I am still mad we signed Uncle Delly over Hakanpaa.

Jan Rutta’s contract may have helped keep Zub’s contract value down.

I think Zub would take 4.6 per for 4/5 years. He would be looking for a new deal just past his prime in a higher cap era.

 

[Sweatred]

Since joining the NHL and strictly looking at defenders, Zub is tied for the 10th highest SH WAR. The only players ahead of him are Slavin, Pesce, Forbort, Andersson, Carlo, Brodie, Shattenkirk, Hakanpaa, and Gudas. He is 76th in overall WAR for defenders.

He might not be worth 5 million, but it has nothing to do with his ability to PK.

That’s because he’s slotted higher than he should be on a bad team - just like Formy isn’t a true 2LW yet … those stats are meaningless … he’s not as good as that ranking.

If Zub’s your best PK’r your team has problems. So you pay to get 1-2 better guys and now Zub is your 4-6 D making $5 million. It’s too much for a league where the average player should make around $3.5 and you have a team full of $8’s.

 

[Sensatauro]

Why is this board so disconnected. It's a weird dynamic here. Most threads are derailed. I came here to talk about and read about Zub. Pages of nothing about Zub.

Team looks great, yet we still here arguing.

Zub should be re-signed for 5 x 5 and call it a day imo. He is too good to let go. Most definitely worth 5 x 5 in the open market. He will get attention from someone for sure if we don't sign him

 

[SpezDispenser]

I assume he wants to test the market and i don't necessarily blame him. We'd have to offer at least 5.5 is my guess.

 

[Korpse]

Zub should be re-signed for 5 x 5 and call it a day imo. He is too good to let go. Most definitely worth 5 x 5 in the open market. He will get attention from someone for sure if we don't sign him

I think a AAV of 5M is fair for both sides, I'm hesitant to go 5 years though. I can't really put my finger on why, Zub has been great for Ottawa and is just 26 years old. 5 years would work with Chabot and Tkachuk contracts expiring the same year, but I think 4 might be a little better. Would expire at the same time as Batherson after the 2026/2027 season, also JBD and Thomson gain UFA eligibility after the 2026/2027 season, you might want to leave room to sign one of those guys to a long term deal before that happens. Obviously depending on how they develop so there is an argument for a 3 year extension from the team side.

 

[CornerStone61]

In no universe is Zub a 5-6 D. Guy would be a top 4 on pretty much every team in the league

 

[Wallet Inspector]

In no universe is Zub a 5-6 D. Guy would be a top 4 on pretty much every team in the league

For real, there's only a handful of team with 4 defensemen better than Zub.

 

[Micklebot]

That’s because he’s slotted higher than he should be on a bad team - just like Formy isn’t a true 2LW yet … those stats are meaningless … he’s not as good as that ranking.

How does him being slotted higher than he should be make him appear higher on that ranking than he should? Those stats are just a reflection of the outcomes when he was on the ice, the results were good when he was out there, whether or not those results were due to his play is debatable since correlation is not causality.

Do you have any specific issues with how he plays on the PK, what is it that he struggles with in your opinion?


He's been used on our second unit since joining the league, and has always had positive results. In his two years here, he has the lowest GA/60 on the PK of any Dman with 70+ mins, and the lowest xGA/60 as well. His rel GA/60 and rel xGA/60 is the best on the team by a significant margin.

Switching over to a qualitative analysis, he reads the plays well as the develop, allowing him to break up passes and get into shooting lanes, is very good with gap control and preventing zone entries, and once he's retrieved the puck is probably our best penalty killer at clearing the zone. He's physical and strong enough to stand up to and not get outmuscled by big forwards in front of the net and in the corners too.

I'd have no issues with him on our first PK unit aside from the fact that it would mean increasing his icetime and ideally he's better utilized out there 5v5 with Chabot, I want those two available when the PK ends to go on offense.

 

[Sweatred]

For real, there's only a handful of team with 4 defensemen better than Zub.

Who said Zub’s a 5-6?

 

[Sweatred]

How does him being slotted higher than he should be make him appear higher on that ranking than he should? Those stats are just a reflection of the outcomes when he was on the ice, the results were good when he was out there, whether or not those results were due to his play is debatable since correlation is not causality.

Do you have any specific issues with how he plays on the PK, what is it that he struggles with in your opinion?


He's been used on our second unit since joining the league, and has always had positive results. In his two years here, he has the lowest GA/60 on the PK of any Dman with 70+ mins, and the lowest xGA/60 as well. His rel GA/60 and rel xGA/60 is the best on the team by a significant margin.

Switching over to a qualitative analysis, he reads the plays well as the develop, allowing him to break up passes and get into shooting lanes, is very good with gap control and preventing zone entries, and once he's retrieved the puck is probably our best penalty killer at clearing the zone. He's physical and strong enough to stand up to and not get outmuscled by big forwards in front of the net and in the corners too.

I'd have no issues with him on our first PK unit aside from the fact that it would mean increasing his icetime and ideally he's better utilized out there 5v5 with Chabot, I want those two available when the PK ends to go on offense.

Keeping it simple I think he’s undersized to be true 1-2 guy on the PK. I like Zub, I like him a lot… but he’s not the defensive warrior I want anchoring a Stanley cup run.

Chabot isn’t that guy… Sanderson probably isn’t … so we need a guy who can win most body and stick battles. Now Zub’s a 4 or less if Brann, Lassi, or JBD pass him.

Zub’s a great 4 and a soft 3. If I’m going to pay 3 D $8, $8, $5 I need a Those three guys to be the guys in high leverage situations. That’s already $21 million on 3D and putting that team at a minimum of $25 million on D.

No PP in the league is worried if they matchup against Zub and a lesser.

 

[Golden_Jet]

If Zub’s your best PK’r your team has problems. So you pay to get 1-2 better guys and now Zub is your 4-6 D making $5 million. It’s too much for a league where the average player should make around $3.5 and you have a team full of $8’s.

 

[Sweatred]

4-6 is not 5-6….. they are different. The question was about 5-6 ?

 

[Micklebot]

Keeping it simple I think he’s undersized to be true 1-2 guy on the PK. I like Zub, I like him a lot… but he’s not the defensive warrior I want anchoring a Stanley cup run.

Chabot isn’t that guy… Sanderson probably isn’t … so we need a guy who can win most body and stick battles. Now Zub’s a 4 or less if Brann, Lassi, or JBD pass him.

Lots of PKs have guys Zub's size on them, Zub is listed at 6'2 202

Top 5 PKs in the League

Carolina
Slavin 6'3 213 Peece 6'4 201

SJ
Burns 6'5 230, Ferraro 5'11 185

Pens
Dumoulin 6'4 207, Marino 6'1 181

NYI
Mayfield 6'5 220, Pelech 6'3 213

StL
Scandella 6'3 211, Bortuzzo 6'4 216

Final 4:

Col
Toews 6'1 191, Johnson 6'4 225

TBL
McDonagh 6'1 215, Cernak 6'3 230

NYR
Lindgren 6' 191, Fox 5'11 183

Edm
Nurse 6'4 221, Ceci 6'2 210

I'm not sure size alone is enough to argue he can't be on a SC champ top PK unit, particularly when he's been effective in the role with us.

 

[Sweatred]

Lots of PKs have guys Zub's size on them, Zub is listed at 6'2 202

Top 5 PKs in the League

Carolina
Slavin 6'3 213 Peece 6'4 201

SJ
Burns 6'5 230, Ferraro 5'11 185

Pens
Dumoulin 6'4 207, Marino 6'1 181

NYI
Mayfield 6'5 220, Pelech 6'3 213

StL
Scandella 6'3 211, Bortuzzo 6'4 216

Final 4:

Col
Toews 6'1 191, Johnson 6'4 225

TBL
McDonagh 6'1 215, Cernak 6'3 230

NYR
Lindgren 6' 191, Fox 5'11 183

Edm
Nurse 6'4 221, Ceci 6'2 210

I'm not sure size alone is enough to argue he can't be on a SC champ top PK unit, particularly when he's been effective in the role with us.

We’re short a defender who can move guys around. Zub’s not doing that.

This forum is notoriously hard on players like Brown, Gud, and Hamonic. These big defenders are still a huge part of the game. At the same it pumps guys like White and Formy as elite third liners when they have no physical element to their game. This missing evaluation in each case is the value of out muscling players for pucks (stick/body).

Zub is a good player - but we can’t run out a dcore of players who can’t win a body/stick battle between them.

Sanderson will win battles with his legs and it remains to be seen what type of physical element he will bring to the league. I can’t see Zub anchoring the defensive side of the game for this team. Maybe he won’t have to if Sanderson does it … but we need to be careful we don’t overpay Zub.

 

[Micklebot]

We’re short a defender who can move guys around. Zub’s not doing that.

This forum is notoriously hard on players like Brown, Gud, and Hamonic. These big defenders are still a huge part of the game. At the same it pumps guys like White and Formy as elite third liners when they have no physical element yo their game.

Zub is a good player - but we can’t run out a dcore of players who can’t win a body/stick battle between them.

You're moving the goal posts here. We can get a Brown for peanuts if we need that, Hamonic is almost exactly the same size as Zub and was viewed as a high end penalty killer in his prime. Guys like Vlasic and Hjalmarsson were elite defensive players on and off the PK, no bigger than Zub. You're going to need to do more than state his height and weight as reasons he can't be part of SC champs top PK unit if you want to make a compelling argument.

 

[Sweatred]

You're moving the goal posts here. We can get a Brown for peanuts if we need that, Hamonic is almost exactly the same size as Zub and was viewed as a high end penalty killer in his prime. Guys like Vlasic and Hjalmarsson were elite defensive players on and off the PK, no bigger than Zub. You're going to need to do more than state his height and weight as reasons he can't be part of SC champs top PK unit if you want to make a compelling argument.

Nope - let’s not get into first year philosophy. I didn’t say I want Brown. I implied this team needs some of what Brown, Gud, Hamonic have, ideally with more skill. More specifically I said this forum tends to ignore the value of physical play.

We have too many skaters and puck movers on D. It’s a problem. We need a bit of skilled power on the back. If we over pay Zub we won’t be adding anything beyond another Josh Brown.

 

[Micklebot]

Nope - let’s not get into first year philosophy. I didn’t say I want Brown. I implied this team needs some of what Brown, Gud, Hamonic have, ideally with more skill.

We have too many skaters and puck movers on D. It’s a problem.

Bad arguments are bad arguments, nothing to do with first year philosophy, when you can make a point that's compelling come back, until then, Zub isn't big enough to be on a top PK is just about the worst analysis I've seen in a while, if you can even call it that,

Some of the best defensive players out there aren't giants, guys like Vlasic, Hjalmarsson, McDonagh, Slavin, Tanev, Brodin were all top of the league in their respective primes. I'd have no issues with going to war in the playoffs with any of them on my top PK.

 

[Sweatred]

Bad arguments are bad arguments, nothing to do with first year philosophy, when you can make a point that's compelling come back, until then, Zub isn't big enough to be on a top PK is just about the worst analysis I've seen in a while, if you can even call it that,

Some of the best defensive players out there aren't giants, guys like Vlasic, Hjalmarsson, McDonagh, Slavin, Tanev, Brodin were all top of the league in their respective primes. I'd have no issues with going to war in the playoffs with any of them on my top PK.

Na. You quote First year philosophy like it somehow disproves every point made to you.

Hey - we don’t agree on player evaluations… we’ve been here before. No bid deal.

I don’t think Zub is worth $5x5 … cool if you do. I absolutely think he’s worth keeping at the right price.

 

[Micklebot]

Na. You quote First year philosophy like it somehow disproves every point made to you.

Hey - we don’t agree on player evaluations… we’ve been here before. No bid deal.

I don’t think Zub is worth $5x5 … cool if you do.

You haven't even provided an evaluation of Zub, you just claimed he was too small when I asked you for specifics on where he lacks in a pk context. Pointing to a need for a people mover as one of the guys on a pk doesn't mean Zub is a bad option on the top PK unit, hence the goal post shifting comment.

 

[Sweatred]

You haven't even provided an evaluation of Zub, you just claimed he was too small when I asked you for specifics on where he lacks in a pk context. Pointing to a need for a people mover as one of the guys on a pk doesn't mean Zub is a bad option on the top PK unit, hence the goal post shifting comment.

Ive said several things about why I don't think he is worth $5x5... The fact that you would say "I haven't even provided an evaluation" tells me you not listening anyway. We argued for days on the White eval, its not like anything I said changed your view. Let's move on. I like him, just not as much as you.

 

[GCK]

Did I say he didn’t PK ? I’m reading what I wrote and I honestly can’t see how you would interpret that I suggested he didn’t PK…

You implied he wasn’t good on the PK which is wrong