playasRus
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Player Discussion Artem Zub (D) Part 2 [Extended 4 years @ $4.6M]
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Wallet Inspector
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Played around with Capfriendly for a bit
Had to estimate what Stu/Cat/Pinto etc would re-sign for, but with this we'd be a bit over the cap(and that's assuming Formenton gets traded for cap room). I suppose we'd have to trade Joseph as well.
playasRus
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Pinto would have to go off for 40 points to command a 3M contrat next year.
We'd also be f***ed the next year to re-sign Sanderson.
Pinto will get closer to 2M on a bridge, Stutzle 7M on a bridge I'd guess. Then Sanderson gets the Dobson if he proves to be as good the next two years, until we can give him Girou'x money.
Or we let DeBrincat go and use his 9M for Stutzle's 8 year contract and bolster on up D with a 5M guy or Chychrun if we can snipe him in 1-2 years for cheaper.
Wallet Inspector
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Joseph got 2.9 after only 11 games with us. If Pinto plays his 3rd line role well I really can't see him getting less than 3 mil.
Signing Stu to a bridge feels like it would backfire on us long term.
playasRus
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Joseph did a little more than just play 11 games. He's paced 30 points 3 out of 4 seasons played so far - and the only season he didn't, he played 37 games.
Joseph also had 220 games under his belt in TB and a couple of big shiny rings on his fingers
As others have said, this argument carries no water.
No matter how good Pinto does this season, Ottawa will be able to squeeze him. No one is getting a large contract after about 90 games experience.
His choices will be to sign a very cheap and short deal or an extremely long deal that potentially leaves a ton of money on the table like jarnkrok, Gallagher and rakells second contract.
I'd say if Pinto's deal is 3 mil or more it is 5 years +.
Big Muddy
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Kudos to you for running the numbers. Its a necessary (prerequisite) step these days. Just looking at the details of one player doesn't have much value until you look at the entire picture which you have done.
You can debate the details (i.e., what amount Pinto will get paid), but if we fall back to big picture and what's important its that the Senators will soon (very near term future) be at the point where they will get squeezed and have to deal with cap issues.
Either you let a good piece go as some are hypothesizing, go with some bridges on some good players and take your chances on the future, and/or whatever.
What's clear is that they can't keep adding without making some kind of more serious (impactful) adjustment (could be a subtraction or something else). When you talk about squeezing players in, or making things fit, I would think an exercise of running the numbers is a prerequisite before talking about these future moves.
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SensFactor
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Don't see Stutzle getting close to 9M next year. He's closer to getting a 7.25M on a bridge contract.
Pinto I see having a strong year and getting the same as Joseph ($3M a year also on a bridge)
DeBrincat I don't see how we sign him long-term. I think we flip him after this year for a top 4D. He's going to want $9M plus. Plus we still need to sign Sanderson in the following year.
Pinto I see having a strong year and getting the same as Joseph ($3M a year also on a bridge)
DeBrincat I don't see how we sign him long-term. I think we flip him after this year for a top 4D. He's going to want $9M plus. Plus we still need to sign Sanderson in the following year.
bert
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If the sens bridge Stutzle they'll likely have to trade him in a couple years. The caps going up. They gotta sign him long term and try and get him to buy in now. Try and use Brady as the cap get him signed for 7 or 8 years at 8.1.
playasRus
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Top 13 RFA bridges by cap % in the last 3 years. Bridge defined by less than 4 years long with RFA status maintained at expiry:
| PLAYER | SIGNING AGE | LENGTH | EXP. YEAR | CAP HIT | CAP HIT % | AAV | |
| 1. Elias Pettersson |
| 3 | 2024 | $7,350,000 | 9.00% | $7,350,000 | |
| 2. Mathew Barzal | 23 | 3 | 2023 | $7,000,000 | 8.60% | $7,000,000 | |
| 3. Alex DeBrincat | 22 | 3 | 2023 | $6,400,000 | 7.90% | $6,400,000 | |
| 4. Rasmus Dahlin | 21 | 3 | 2024 | $6,000,000 | 7.40% | $6,000,000 | |
| 5. Timo Meier | 22 | 4 | 2023 | $6,000,000 | 7.40% | $6,000,000 | |
| 6. Pierre-Luc Dubois | 24 | 1 | 2023 | $6,000,000 | 7.30% | $6,000,000 | |
| 7. Jesper Bratt | 23 | 1 | 2023 | $5,450,000 | 6.60% | $5,450,000 | |
| 8. Anthony Cirelli | 22 | 3 | 2023 | $4,800,000 | 5.90% | $4,800,000 | |
| 9. Mikhail Sergachev | 22 | 3 | 2023 | $4,800,000 | 5.90% | $4,800,000 | |
| 10. Filip Hronek | 23 | 3 | 2024 | $4,400,000 | 5.40% | $4,400,000 | |
| 11. Vince Dunn | 24 | 2 | 2023 | $4,000,000 | 4.90% | $4,000,000 | |
| 12. Carter Hart | 22 | 3 | 2024 | $3,979,000 | 4.90% | $3,979,000 | |
| 13. Noah Dobson | 22 | 3 | 2025 | $4,000,000 | 4.80% | $4,000,000 |
Petersson went near PPG (0.93) his first three seasons. I don't expect Stutzle will get more than that on a similar bridge.
Barzal went 0.89 PPG, which is probably whereabouts Stutzle will end up.
If Stutzle has a less productive year, his closes comparable would be PLD who signed 5M x 2 years 158 points in 203 games. (0.74 PPG) for 6.14% of cap. But realistically, by draft stock, he'll get closer to 7% than 6%.
I don't understand why a bridge means trade for sure? We've bridged star players in the past. Spezza, Zibanejad, Stone were all bridged and extended thereafter. We just made poor decisions like trading away Zibanejad, and Stone dind't want to stick around for a rebuild/we should've signed him to more than a 1 year after his bridge.
bert
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Stone and Zibanejad were both traded literally exactly the type of scenario we dont want. The reason he needs to be signed now is because if they wait and he gets bridged then starts scoring 100+ points a year and the cap goes up he will want 12+ million.
ReginKarlssonLehner
Let's Win It All
We are not bridging someone who has potential to be best Sens forward ever.
8x8 and call it a freaking day. He'll get more than 8 if he goes PPG+ next year.
8x8 and call it a freaking day. He'll get more than 8 if he goes PPG+ next year.
playasRus
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Zibanejad was traded because we gave up on him and our staff didn't think he'd break out as a 1C or even be worth an extension in ballpark of 5x5. That's why they gave him away for Brassard who we saw as a better fit for a deep run. Big mistake, but not related to the fact that they bridged him. He wouldn't have signed an 8 year unervalued contract anyways, he'd have gotten 4M at most as a 0.5 ppg raw young player.
Again, Stone wasn't traded because we only bridged him, it was because we couldn't get him to commit to a rebuild. He got a 1year extension post-bridge.
I'll believe it when he accepts that deal.
bert
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Thats partially true in regards to Zibanejad, the other part was they didnt want to pay him on his up coming deal which would have been much more expensive. Hence why they took Brassard back after the Rangers paid him his signing bonus.
Due to bridging Stone they gave up team control and he walked to UFA. Thats exactly what the sens dont want. It just happened with Matthew Tkachuk. The bridge was the risk.
Bridging Stutzle right now would be the worst possible decision with the player. Hughes just signed 8 X 8. Thats the barometer. The cap has barely moved.
Golden_Jet
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Stu played in D+1
Petersson D+2
Barzal D+3
So not even comparable
Stu’s upcoming season is equivalent to Barzal’s first season in NHL, and Pettersson’s second.
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Golden_Jet
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Zibi’s problem was he was lazy and didn’t want to put in the effort to be a good pro, he even said as much after a couple of years in NY.
Well, it'd be great if we can sign him this season
I think 8 * anything less than 9 will prove to be team friendly
Yep, and that had a lot to do with him being moved. Good for him though. He figured it out and he's a top player in the league
If we bridge Stu(sincerely hope we don't), I don't think he can argue for $7 million per season. Barzal showed he could offensively fill in for Tavares, and EP was essentially a 1C his whole elc. Stu hasn't been as good as those guys (could very well change this year).
DJB
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Stu is the last player we should be bridging. We need to sign him long term.
He will get Tkachuk type money
He will get Tkachuk type money
Big Muddy
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So, the age of the player is an important factor then in determining the amount of $s of a bridge contract? I'm not sure what is being argued here, although I could be missing something.
I think the fact that Stutzle first NHL year was at an earlier age speaks to the state of the Senators more than anything else i.e., they needed to insert a very young player that they had just drafted. Again, that indicates they needed it more which doesn't seem to make the organization's bargaining position stronger.
Seems like performance/production or years in the NHL would be the other factors and could be more important.
Stutzle will be 21 in January, so he'll be 21 in the summer when they try to negotiate a contract - just a footnote.
Big Muddy
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Good work and thanks for sharing.
The average Cap Hit is 6.6%. So, if the cap is $84.5 m in 2023-24, that would equate to about $5.6 m. Just a footnote.
I like the big picture presentation with numbers versus picking or sniping at one detail. Its the big picture and how all the multiple different pieces fit together that's important imho.
There's certainly risk in bridging though. If the Stutzle is the player we think he is, and he has a very good year prior to contract negotiation, the post bridge contract could be a lot harder to digest.
Golden_Jet
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Big Muddy
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OK, the topic (that you replied to) was bridge contracts and how much Stutzle will get. So, if your post wasn't about that subject, then I'll just disregard. I did read your post btw.
