Player Discussion Artem Zub (D) Part 2 [Extended 4 years @ $4.6M]

[Golden_Jet]

OK, the topic (that you replied to) was bridge contracts and how much Stutzle will get. So, if your post wasn't about that subject, then I'll just disregard. I did read your post btw.

Damn I thought I deleted that, after I typed it, cause it wasn’t accurate.

 

[Big Muddy]

Damn I thought I deleted that, after I typed it, cause it wasn’t accurate.

OK, no worries.

The bridge contract subject and how much a player like Stutzle could get on a bridge is something I'm interested in and have been thinking about. Seems like bridge contracts, and more broadly, how we'll fit all the players into the cap is a topic getting more focus now which is logical. There's pros and cons to each approach & solution of course.

As a footnote, that Dobson bridge contract really stands out as an outlier imho. That was a really good deal for the Islanders.

 

[OD99]

If there was a player in recent history that I would have no reservations about extending long term it is Jimmy.

Dude exudes confidence, swagger and work ethic. He will be one of the best players in the league because he has all the skill and tenacity to go along with it.

He will be a physical force before we know it.

Get him for as long as possible for as cheap as possible as quickly as possible.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Yeah you don’t bridge Stu. You let him, the team, and the fanbase know that you’re serious about contending by locking in this key member of our core.

The ground work has already been set by giving long term deals to all of the other core players that have come up, you just no nonsense get this one done, like it was always the plan.

I suspect that he’ll sign to a term and amount close to the rest of his buddies without any acrimony.

 

[playasRus]

Yeah you don’t bridge Stu. You let him, the team, and the fanbase know that you’re serious about contending by locking in this key member of our core.

The ground work has already been set by giving long term deals to all of the other core players that have come up, you just no nonsense get this one done, like it was always the plan.

I suspect that he’ll sign to a term and amount close to the rest of his buddies without any acrimony.

Then the question becomes, when do we flip DeBrincat? TDL? Sign and trade at FA?
Because several posters have already posted a CapFriendly roster projection and DeBrincat and Stutzle at 8M x 8 years each won't fit in our cap with a functional roster.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Then the question becomes, when do we flip DeBrincat? TDL? Sign and trade at FA?
Because several posters have already posted a CapFriendly roster projection and DeBrincat and Stutzle at 8M x 8 years each won't fit in our cap with a functional roster.

View attachment 580325

The assumption is Zaitsev will be gone by next year, but ya will be tight.

 

[playasRus]

The assumption is Zaitsev will be gone by next year, but ya will be tight.

Even with that assumption, swap him for a 2M defensemen, and that roster of 20 is JUST 2M under the ceiling.

And that 2M defensemen sure won't be Marino, Weegar, Chychrun.

 

[Sweatred]

Then the question becomes, when do we flip DeBrincat? TDL? Sign and trade at FA?
Because several posters have already posted a CapFriendly roster projection and DeBrincat and Stutzle at 8M x 8 years each won't fit in our cap with a functional roster.

View attachment 580325

You give him until Xmas and decide what you want to offer him. If he turns it down he doesn't want to stay so you try to trade him at the deadline if it’s a mega offer despite the pain the fan base will feel. If you don’t get a good offer you trade him at the draft with a sign and trade like Matthew.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Then the question becomes, when do we flip DeBrincat? TDL? Sign and trade at FA?
Because several posters have already posted a CapFriendly roster projection and DeBrincat and Stutzle at 8M x 8 years each won't fit in our cap with a functional roster.

View attachment 580325

Sure but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it as the cap will be going up in two years as well.

Some find it fun to play with partial numbers, but we’ll see what happens closer to it being an issue. Regardless, it’s a ‘good’ problem to have as they say.

Zaitsev won’t be on the roster that’s for sure.

 

[JD1]

So, the age of the player is an important factor then in determining the amount of $s of a bridge contract? I'm not sure what is being argued here, although I could be missing something.

I think the fact that Stutzle first NHL year was at an earlier age speaks to the state of the Senators more than anything else i.e., they needed to insert a very young player that they had just drafted. Again, that indicates they needed it more which doesn't seem to make the organization's bargaining position stronger.

Seems like performance/production or years in the NHL would be the other factors and could be more important.

Stutzle will be 21 in January, so he'll be 21 in the summer when they try to negotiate a contract - just a footnote.

Certainly agree that Ottawa was weak but Stuetzle would have made pretty much any team. Simply watching him skate at the WJC, he was heads and tails a better skater than anyone in that tournament and was going straight to the NHL

 

[Big Muddy]

Certainly agree that Ottawa was weak but Stuetzle would have made pretty much any team. Simply watching him skate at the WJC, he was heads and tails a better skater than anyone in that tournament and was going straight to the NHL

I don't disagree with that. My post was about what criteria are typically used when coming up with the amount of salary for a bridge contract. What I was really saying that just because he was able to make the team right after the draft does not weaken his position in negotiations.

 

[Big Muddy]

Sure but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it as the cap will be going up in two years as well.

Some find it fun to play with partial numbers, but we’ll see what happens closer to it being an issue. Regardless, it’s a ‘good’ problem to have as they say.

Zaitsev won’t be on the roster that’s for sure.

The amount that the cap could increase in 2023-24 ($2m maximum to $84.5 m) was identified in the revised CBA and discussed (publicly) by Bettman. Also, a lot of the contracts are multi-year as well. So, there's lots of known info to base things on. Sports teams and businesses in general need to budget and plan. It's not that abstract or last minute in nature.

Everything is temporal in nature of course based on what is known at the time. Only more recently has Daly stated that the cap might increase more than what was identified before. Teams will be looking for that info to firm up and get nailed down at some point sooner versus later so that they can plan and manage their business.

 

[Golden_Jet]

The amount that the cap could increase in 2023-24 was identified in the revised CBA and discussed (publicly) by Bettman. Also, a lot of the contracts are multi-year as well. So, there's lots of known info to base things on. Sports teams and businesses in general need to budget and plan. It's not that abstract or last minute in nature. Everything is temporal in nature of course based on what is known at the time. Only more recently has Daly stated that the cap might increase more than what was identified before. Teams will be looking for that info firm up and get nailed down at some point sooner versus later so that they can plan and manage their business.

That’s all accurate,

The unknown is escrow changing to 10% this year I think, and then a few years of 6 %, so possible the much lower escrow might not increase the cap as high and as fast as some thought.

 

[Big Muddy]

The assumption is Zaitsev will be gone by next year, but ya will be tight.

Even with that assumption, swap him for a 2M defensemen, and that roster of 20 is JUST 2M under the ceiling.

And that 2M defensemen sure won't be Marino, Weegar, Chychrun.

Yes, that's where generating a potential roster with salaries becomes useful. The goal isn't to identify the exact roster accurately, but to test your assumptions and options (projections) to see if they even fit from a cap perspective, even for the 2023-24 season. And, unless the organization changes course, does it fit with internal cap lower than the ceiling which naturally makes it even more challenging (understating it here)?

For those that have done this, they see that everything on the "wish list" does not fit. By "wish list", I'm saying long term contracts (or extensions) for Debrincat & Stutzle, getting Zub resigned and adding a RD.

In addition, that doesn't include players that are still unsigned this year like Formenton and Brannstrom, what to do in 2023-24 with Pinto (who is a 10.2 c), needing another goalie in 2023-24, and Sanderson's new contract in 2024-25 . And when you go through the budget exercise, Zaitsev is gone (subtracted) in all (every) scenarios, so that is already taken into account (along with all the other lesser player's contracts that will be expiring).

So, ignoring all of this isn't really a workable solution as the entire wish list won't fit, and some decisions (aka subtractions and/or bridges) will need to be made. Dorion and the management team are definitely going through all of this and know what the challenges are. Of course, the caveat is if the NHL decides on a much more significant cap increase versus what was identified in the revised CBA and Bettman.

 

[bicboi64]

Even with that assumption, swap him for a 2M defensemen, and that roster of 20 is JUST 2M under the ceiling.

And that 2M defensemen sure won't be Marino, Weegar, Chychrun.

Hopefully we get some elc talent that can play the third pairing for defense or in the bottom 6 to help shave off an additional million or two

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[UglyPuckling]

Hopefully we get some elc talent that can play the third pairing for defense or in the bottom 6 to help shave off an additional million or two

Depending on what the objective or goal is, that still could be not enough. So, if the goal is signing all of our young studs (including Debrincat) to long term contracts, resigning Zub and adding a good RD, there's still going to be some additional things that will need to get done like a subtraction (or subtractions) or bridges.

That's been my observation and conclusion after having put together a complete roster (i.e., 2023-24) with salaries a few times with all of those things included.

 

[bert]

Even with that assumption, swap him for a 2M defensemen, and that roster of 20 is JUST 2M under the ceiling.

And that 2M defensemen sure won't be Marino, Weegar, Chychrun.

Which is probably exactly where were going to be. Essentially you need 3 really good D men to be a contender, at that point we have to hope that Sanderson has taken that step. With one of Thomson or JBD rounding out the top 4.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[playasRus]

Wow what a bully. Definitely need to keep that kind of character away from out young team.

 

[swiftwin]

Then the question becomes, when do we flip DeBrincat? TDL? Sign and trade at FA?
Because several posters have already posted a CapFriendly roster projection and DeBrincat and Stutzle at 8M x 8 years each won't fit in our cap with a functional roster.

View attachment 580325

IMO, this Dorion desperately wants Chychrun. IMO, Zub is not worth $5m, and there's a good chance he walks next season if that's what he wants.

With Chychrun (and Zaitsev going the other way), our top 4 next season could look like:

Chabot(8)-Thompson (0.86)
Sanderson(0.925)-Chychrun (4.6)

Which frees up about $5m in cap space.

 

[Sweatred]

IMO, this Dorion desperately wants Chychrun. IMO, Zub is not worth $5m, and there's a good chance he walks next season if that's what he wants.

With Chychrun (and Zaitsev going the other way), our top 4 next season could look like:

Chabot(8)-Thompson (0.86)
Sanderson(0.925)-Chychrun (4.6)

Which frees up about $5m in cap space.

You can't pay DMAN $5 million who aren't good/elite at PP1 or PK1 ..

 

[ijif]

You can't pay DMAN $5 million who aren't good/elite at PP1 or PK1 ..

Why?

 

[Sweatred]

Why?

Too much for a player that can’t provide an essential role to the team.

He projects as a 3-6 PP option for a league that runs 1-2 D max on the PP

He’s a serviceable penalty killer … but far from a stopper. A good team needs two better PKillers then Zub.

He’s a nice 3-4 DMAN who doesn’t have an elite role on the team. That’s not worth $5 million. Games are won and lost off the PP/PK.

 

[GCK]

Too much for a player that can’t provide an essential role to the team.

He projects as a 3-6 PP option for a league that runs 1-2 D max on the PP

He’s a serviceable penalty killer … but far from a stopper. A good team needs two better PKillers then Zub.

He’s a nice 3-4 DMAN who doesn’t have an elite role on the team. That’s not worth $5 million. Games are won and lost off the PP/PK.

He does PK, what are you talking about.