Around the NHL 2023-2024

[Xerloris]

but those weren't his only options. guerin also could have retained and dealt them. or convinced parise he was hurt and had to go on ltir. sometimes solutions present themselves, but they boxed themselves into unacttractive situation on purpose. and under current scenario, best case for wild is that they can convince kaprizov that they won't suck going forward and that even though they wasted his prime, he should let them give him huge $ to try to waste the rest.

I mean Parise should just retire because of his back anyway.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Waiting for the penalties to be worse for the buyouts if COVID cost the league another year of janky division only bubble play?

Waiting while the leadership roles they wanted gone continued to play a detrimental role to the team?

Waiting for 2 declining stars to become absolute anchors while taking up ~19% of your cap unable to play middle of the lineup roles?

Parise looks like he's unlikely to be re-signed for league minimum right now, although it's possible this is Lou not finalizing the paperwork for the contract again until the last minute.

Suter played huge minutes last year (2nd in Toi in DAL), but fans have soured on him and per the following article, he was taking pretty sloppy penalties in the playoffs that cost Dallas games. I was busy working graveyards for most of May and couldn't watch any games, so I'm stuck using other's opinions on Suter's play. Dallas Stars 2022-23 Player Grades: Ryan Suter

There's an alternate reality where covid derails another season, draws out the flat cap and the buyout decision consequently looks better (especially if the buyout gets revised or forgiven due to a potentially cancelled season). In July 2021, fresh off the bubble playoffs surrounded by talks of season suspension while scrambling for a safe way to host a modified format, there's reason to believe that things could have easily gotten worse for prospective future buyouts. There's a huge pressure to do SOMETHING, little factual evidence to go off and radical policies being made erratically state to state, in addition to nation to nation with ramifications for the NHL.

Hindsight makes it particularly easy to say Guerin done f***ed up. But 2 years ago, there was a lot more uncertainty going on.

You can create a scenario where this works out ok for them, but that is because you created an alternate reality. In the world we live in, it was dumb and shortsighted at the time and has played out so that it looks as bad as most of us figured it would. And no retrospective uncertainty changes that they literally made dumbest choice they could have given what they knew then. But guerin wanted to show everyone there was new sheriff in town so he wanted to show he could scalp biggest prey they had. And that franchise is going to keep paying for it for years.

 

[Brian39]

I agree that the route Guerin took wasn't the best decision. Trading with retention would have been much better as Brian stated while I was getting my numbers together for my earlier post.

Another element you're overlooking is the effect that COVID imposed on the trade market and the resulting flat cap. There was very little movement in the summer of 2021. That period of uncertainty definitely played into the decision to just take the buyouts to the chin. Nobody knew how long the cap ramifications would run, if we'd be faced with further shutdowns or janky seasons etc...

Like Blueston, my biggest issue is that they didn't need to buy out both that summer. Replacing Suter with Goligoski was absolutely not a critical need on par with extending Kaprisov, Eriksson Ek, and the rest of the core already owed money. But let's say that Goligoski was viewed as crucial to them because they knew in advance they were going to give him $5M for 2021/22 and then a cheap 2 year extension less than a year later. Here is a much better way of accomplishing all of those goals:

Step 1: Trade Suter with 50% retention. As outlined above, this shouldn't have been that difficult.

Step 2: Sign Goligoski for $5M, but structure it better. He was eligible for a 35+ contract. $1M base salary, $4M bonus for 10 games played. Hell, throw in a $500k Stanley Cup bonus to offset the tiny risk (for him) that he doesn't play 10 games.

The outcome is that they are now only eating $4.77M for Goligoski + Suter retention in 2021/22. That frees up $2.6M in cap space for 2021/22 compared to the $7.371M they actually spent on Goligoski and Suter that year. They started 2021/22 with $3M in cap space and ended the year with $1.5M in cap space. COmbining the unused space and the $2.6M freed up by not bungling Suter and they could have extended all of their guys without buying out Parise.

The reality is that they could have run out the exact same lineup in 2021/22 without buying either player out. Handle the Suter/Goligoski swap better and then kick the can down the road on Parise. That pushes a potential $4M bonus overage to 2022/23, which isn't ideal. But they are also eating $2.6M less for retaining on Suter vs the buyout penalty, so the net result is that they are only "down" $1.4M in 2022/23 for Suter/Goligoski vs what they actually did.

So this would have left them with $1.4M fewer cap dollars in 2022/23. But as I mentioned earlier, they ended 2022/23 with $960k in unused cap space. They spent pretty much the entire season $2M+ under the cap, but then they accrued almost $900k in cap dollars by retaining money as the 3rd team the ROR/Orlov trades. Buying out Parise in the summer of 2022 would have saved them an extra $400k off the cap in 2021/22 vs buying him out in 2021. So delaying the Parise buyout a year (and not bungling Suter/Goligoski) would have allowed them to run the exact same lineup in 2022/23. They very likely would have also still been able to make both of those trades selling cap space, but worst case scenario they would lose out on a 5th round pick by only making one of them.

So to sum up, trading Suter at 50% retention, structuring the 2021/22 Goligoski deal as $1M base salary plus $4M bonus, and buying out Parise in 2022 would have allowed them to complete all of the signings and trades that they made in those 2 years. Identical rosters except Parise is on the 4th line (or press box) instead of a guy making league minimum.

And here is the future cap space they would have gained by dealing with the problem he inherited that way instead of buying them both out in 2021:

2023/24: $4M extra cap space
2024/25: $4M extra cap space
2025/26: $1.219M extra cap space
2026/27: $1.219M extra cap space
2027/28: $1.219M extra cap space
2028/29: $1.666M extra cap space

That is an enormous loss of cap space for no tangible benefit in 2021/22 and 2022/23 beyond getting Parise out of the locker room a year sooner. And this ignores the potnetial that maybe he would have accepted LTIR or a mutual termination of his contract if you sat him down in 2022 and said he wasn't in the team's future plans and would be healthy scratched a ton starting in 2022/23. 2021/22 was his last big money year. He was only set to make $4M for the last 3 years of his deal. He might have been willing to walk away from that with a mutual termination if it meant an opportunity to be a veteran leader guaranteed 14 minutes a night somewhere. If that happens, suddenly you just gained $6M+ more cap space per year for 3 years. But instead, Guerin just locked in dead cap for for no real reason.

 

[Brian39]

Waiting for the penalties to be worse for the buyouts if COVID cost the league another year of janky division only bubble play?

...

There's an alternate reality where covid derails another season, draws out the flat cap and the buyout decision consequently looks better (especially if the buyout gets revised or forgiven due to a potentially cancelled season). In July 2021, fresh off the bubble playoffs surrounded by talks of season suspension while scrambling for a safe way to host a modified format, there's reason to believe that things could have easily gotten worse for prospective future buyouts. There's a huge pressure to do SOMETHING, little factual evidence to go off and radical policies being made erratically state to state, in addition to nation to nation with ramifications for the NHL.

You have your timelines mixed up. The bubble playoffs were the late summer/fall of 2020. 2020/21 was the shortened season and every playoff game in 2021 was played in home buildings. All of them had fans (the percentage of fans allowed varied by building). Things were much more stable for the future in July of 2021 than they were coming out of the bubble playoffs.

There is not a reality where COVID changes the buyout rules. The CBA was extended in the summer of 2020 and sets the buyout rules in stone. The potential for compliance buyouts to deal with COVID fallout was rejected with absolutely no discussion about forgiving/erasing/revising past buyouts. Altering the cap penalties for buyouts does nothing to address catastrophic HRR issues and there is no mechanism in the CBA to allow it.

The uncertainties of COVID in July of 2021 absolutely don't make locking in dead money a better decision.

 

[Brockon]

...

You have your timelines mixed up. The bubble playoffs were the late summer/fall of 2020. 2020/21 was the shortened season and every playoff game in 2021 was played in home buildings. All of them had fans (the percentage of fans allowed varied by building). Things were much more stable for the future in July of 2021 than they were coming out of the bubble playoffs.

There is not a reality where COVID changes the buyout rules. The CBA was extended in the summer of 2020 and sets the buyout rules in stone. The potential for compliance buyouts to deal with COVID fallout was rejected with absolutely no discussion about forgiving/erasing/revising past buyouts. Altering the cap penalties for buyouts does nothing to address catastrophic HRR issues and there is no mechanism in the CBA to allow it.

The uncertainties of COVID in July of 2021 absolutely don't make locking in dead money a better decision.

Ouch, thank you for the corrections on multiple accounts there.

I was foggy on the details.

 

[stl76]

Not saying it was a smart move, but it was pretty clear to me that Minnesota just wanted a culture change.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Like Blueston, my biggest issue is that they didn't need to buy out both that summer. Replacing Suter with Goligoski was absolutely not a critical need on par with extending Kaprisov, Eriksson Ek, and the rest of the core already owed money. But let's say that Goligoski was viewed as crucial to them because they knew in advance they were going to give him $5M for 2021/22 and then a cheap 2 year extension less than a year later. Here is a much better way of accomplishing all of those goals:

Step 1: Trade Suter with 50% retention. As outlined above, this shouldn't have been that difficult.

Step 2: Sign Goligoski for $5M, but structure it better. He was eligible for a 35+ contract. $1M base salary, $4M bonus for 10 games played. Hell, throw in a $500k Stanley Cup bonus to offset the tiny risk (for him) that he doesn't play 10 games.

The outcome is that they are now only eating $4.77M for Goligoski + Suter retention in 2021/22. That frees up $2.6M in cap space for 2021/22 compared to the $7.371M they actually spent on Goligoski and Suter that year. They started 2021/22 with $3M in cap space and ended the year with $1.5M in cap space. COmbining the unused space and the $2.6M freed up by not bungling Suter and they could have extended all of their guys without buying out Parise.

The reality is that they could have run out the exact same lineup in 2021/22 without buying either player out. Handle the Suter/Goligoski swap better and then kick the can down the road on Parise. That pushes a potential $4M bonus overage to 2022/23, which isn't ideal. But they are also eating $2.6M less for retaining on Suter vs the buyout penalty, so the net result is that they are only "down" $1.4M in 2022/23 for Suter/Goligoski vs what they actually did.

So this would have left them with $1.4M fewer cap dollars in 2022/23. But as I mentioned earlier, they ended 2022/23 with $960k in unused cap space. They spent pretty much the entire season $2M+ under the cap, but then they accrued almost $900k in cap dollars by retaining money as the 3rd team the ROR/Orlov trades. Buying out Parise in the summer of 2022 would have saved them an extra $400k off the cap in 2021/22 vs buying him out in 2021. So delaying the Parise buyout a year (and not bungling Suter/Goligoski) would have allowed them to run the exact same lineup in 2022/23. They very likely would have also still been able to make both of those trades selling cap space, but worst case scenario they would lose out on a 5th round pick by only making one of them.

So to sum up, trading Suter at 50% retention, structuring the 2021/22 Goligoski deal as $1M base salary plus $4M bonus, and buying out Parise in 2022 would have allowed them to complete all of the signings and trades that they made in those 2 years. Identical rosters except Parise is on the 4th line (or press box) instead of a guy making league minimum.

And here is the future cap space they would have gained by dealing with the problem he inherited that way instead of buying them both out in 2021:

2023/24: $4M extra cap space
2024/25: $4M extra cap space
2025/26: $1.219M extra cap space
2026/27: $1.219M extra cap space
2027/28: $1.219M extra cap space
2028/29: $1.666M extra cap space

That is an enormous loss of cap space for no tangible benefit in 2021/22 and 2022/23 beyond getting Parise out of the locker room a year sooner. And this ignores the potnetial that maybe he would have accepted LTIR or a mutual termination of his contract if you sat him down in 2022 and said he wasn't in the team's future plans and would be healthy scratched a ton starting in 2022/23. 2021/22 was his last big money year. He was only set to make $4M for the last 3 years of his deal. He might have been willing to walk away from that with a mutual termination if it meant an opportunity to be a veteran leader guaranteed 14 minutes a night somewhere. If that happens, suddenly you just gained $6M+ more cap space per year for 3 years. But instead, Guerin just locked in dead cap for for no real reason.

I concluded that the priority was to divorce from both of those guys and get them away from the team immediately. I was surprised to see that, but that priority is the only way I can make sense of the buyouts. In that case, Parise on the 4th line is not desirable over a random league minimum replacement.

 

[Brian39]

I concluded that the priority was to divorce from both of those guys and get them away from the team immediately. I was surprised to see that, but that priority is the only way I can make sense of the buyouts. In that case, Parise on the 4th line is not desirable over a random league minimum replacement.

I agree that this thinking is the only way it makes any sense. But even then, using the buyouts on both was the improper mechanism.

Ryan Suter still had way too much left in the tank for him to have been untradeable. And if he was truly telling the team "I won't waive my NMC for anywhere" then Guerin needed to be able to tell him, "I understand, but you need to understand that you will not be playing for the Minnesota Wild next year. This is me telling you that we believe you have destroyed the culture of our locker room and our intention is to pay you to stay at home rather than allow you to step foot in our facilities again. If you are content with your last game being the final game of your career, then by all means continue to exercise your NMC in full. If you change your mind and want to continue playing in the NHL, we will do everything in our power to get you to a team you want to go to."

Buying out Parise in 2021, trading Suter and signing Goligoski still allows them to do everything that they wanted to do in 2021/22 and 2022/23 (except maybe recovering 4th and 5th round picks by selling cap space).

But frankly I don't even give them the benefit of the doubt that divorcing at all costs was needed. Both went to teams that seemed to have just fine cultures and Minnesota's lot in life made no substantial improvement. I think stripping them of letters, reducing ice time, etc could have very plausibly sent the same message to the room.

 

[Thallis]

I concluded that the priority was to divorce from both of those guys and get them away from the team immediately. I was surprised to see that, but that priority is the only way I can make sense of the buyouts. In that case, Parise on the 4th line is not desirable over a random league minimum replacement.

Suter was/is also considered a locker room problem and coaches' nightmare.

 

[TruBlu]

I agree that this thinking is the only way it makes any sense. But even then, using the buyouts on both was the improper mechanism.

Ryan Suter still had way too much left in the tank for him to have been untradeable. And if he was truly telling the team "I won't waive my NMC for anywhere" then Guerin needed to be able to tell him, "I understand, but you need to understand that you will not be playing for the Minnesota Wild next year. This is me telling you that we believe you have destroyed the culture of our locker room and our intention is to pay you to stay at home rather than allow you to step foot in our facilities again. If you are content with your last game being the final game of your career, then by all means continue to exercise your NMC in full. If you change your mind and want to continue playing in the NHL, we will do everything in our power to get you to a team you want to go to."

Buying out Parise in 2021, trading Suter and signing Goligoski still allows them to do everything that they wanted to do in 2021/22 and 2022/23 (except maybe recovering 4th and 5th round picks by selling cap space).

But frankly I don't even give them the benefit of the doubt that divorcing at all costs was needed. Both went to teams that seemed to have just fine cultures and Minnesota's lot in life made no substantial improvement. I think stripping them of letters, reducing ice time, etc could have very plausibly sent the same message to the room.

When put into that context you can really see why certain GM's make the decisions that they do when it comes to NMC's. It can really have unseen detrimental effects that span several years.

 

[Brian39]

When put into that context you can really see why certain GM's make the decisions that they do when it comes to NMC's. It can really have unseen detrimental effects that span several years.

NMCs are certainly a big deal, but I think the issue with Parise and Suter's contracts were much more about the length and the structure of the dollars than the NMC.

Both of them took the player to age 40 and were so front loaded that the buyout penalties were brutal. They were signed before the CBA rules changes that capped contracts at 8 years (7 for them going to new teams) and limited the year-to-year salary variance. The reason the buyout cap hit is so close to what their actual cap hit would have been is because the Wild had already gotten so many years where the cap hit was less than the total dollars paid. Each of them were set to make a combined $4M in the last 3 years of the deal, which you can't do anymore on these big money contracts.

NMCs definitely shouldn't be thrown out like candy, but there is a pretty big difference between giving out 7 or 8 years of a NMC vs 13 years of one.

Petro got a NMC for all 7 years with Vegas, but his deal is structured to allow the team to buy him out before the final season if things go sideways. If they buy him out in 2026 (when he is younger than Suter was at the time of buyout), then they will take a $2.9M cap hit for 2026/27 and 2027/28. That is a lot easier to stomach than what Minnesota is dealing with. Had Minnesota waited until the final year of the Parise/Suter contracts, they would have still eaten a a $6.9M buyout penalty in the last year and then $666k penalty in year 2. These heavy frontloaded deals and/or paying significant bonus money in the final years of the deal create buyout-nightmare contracts.

The key to giving out an NMC is to make sure that you don't screw yourself with the rest of the structure. Give out a good chunk of bonus money in the early years, but make sure that you are paying all salary for the last year or two.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Blues legend Austin Poganski signed PTO in AZ.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Blues legend Austin Poganski signed PTO in AZ.

Along with what seems like half the UFA pool remaining

 

[PJJJP]

Well there goes Babcock lol

 

[Thallis]

Babcock officially out in Columbus. Hard to imagine JD and Jarmo being allowed to stay after this debacle.

 

[Xerloris]

Can anyone tell me what Babcock actually did this time? Something about pictures?

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Babcock officially out in Columbus. Hard to imagine JD and Jarmo being allowed to stay after this debacle.

How does jarmo still have a job? He has been complete disaster as a GM.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

Can anyone tell me what Babcock actually did this time? Something about pictures?

Supposedly he was asking players if he could go through their phones and look at their photos to “see what kind of person they are”. He would put them up on the big screen in his office.

 

[TheDizee]

Supposedly he was asking players if he could go through their phones and look at their photos to “see what kind of person they are”. He would put them up on the big screen in his office.

def not creepy at all

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

def not creepy at all

Total normal behavior

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

This was the original thing that brought it to the light.



The rumors are it was the younger guys that had problems with it, and Fantili was recently on an episode of SC so people are connecting those dots

 

[BlueDream]

How does jarmo still have a job? He has been complete disaster as a GM.

Bingo.

Kind of laughable that Babcock is taking all the heat here when Jarmo hired him ALREADY KNOWING that Babcock had previous baggage. This is all on Jarmo.

Oh yeah, and his hires before this were Brad Larsen (who lasted 2 seasons), and Tortorella.

The guy has no idea how to hire a head coach. Thank goodness we don’t have him.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Not defending either side but I suspect there’s a lot more to this than has been made public. What a shitshow for Columbus.

 

[TheOrganist]

Talk about an idiotic hire. Lol. Isn’t his son our skills coach? Hopefully he’s not asking our rookies what porn sites they frequented over the summer.

 

[Renard]

Minnesota seemed to be foolish on the front end of those contracts too. Not only were the contracts were extremely long term, but the salary was given in the first year as a signing bonus, in case the season was cancelled because of strike/lockout.