Around the NHL 2023-2024

[Renard]

Good thing I never said he shouldn't go for medical coverage.

This sounds like a crime. Medical coverage is a subordinate matter.

 

[Brian39]

I think the Matthews deal is largely fine for both sides. The Leafs get a top 5-10 player in the league through his 20's with a shot to re-sign him at the end of it. Matthews didn't sign away the entirety of his prime in a time where the cap has remained stagnant but should be on the rise. Sets himself up for one more huge payday either from the Leafs or in UFA at 30 years old. I'm sure the team would've liked him to be there longer but you're getting what are likely his best years, at a minimum. Frankly, if they don't win a Cup or make a couple runs in the duration of this deal, it'll probably be time to move on for everyone anyway.

I don't love the contract for the Leafs, but it is far better than letting him walk in UFA. It is much less team friendly than most other big money contracts due to the lack of term, but I don't think that the lack of term is any worse than giving too much term to a 30 year old. Matthews made his intentions to get exactly what he wanted crystal clear with his last contract. If the Leafs didn't expect a contract like this 2+ years ago then Shanahan should be relieved of his duties ASAP.

I think he will live up to the value of his cap percentage during the deal even if he doesn't provide 'bargain' years at the tail end.

I firmly believe that Matthews is a top 5 center in the world. In the last 5 years he is 2nd among all centers in goals and 4th in points. I don't buy into the argument that he is elite defensively, but I do think that he is very good defensively and better than most of the high end scoring centers. He has scored at a 37 goal and point per game pace over his last 5 playoff appearances. He has two Rockets and a Hart.

Assuming the $87.5M cap that seems pretty set in stone for 2024/25, this deal will represent 15.14% of the cap. It will be below 15% by year 2. I don't think that number is prohibitive of building a winner around a guy of his caliber. Now, the Leafs have other contractual concerns that will make it difficult to build that group around him. But I think those issues are a bigger problem than this contract, even if they (obviously) would have preferred to got 6+ years.

Personally, I love seeing players maximize their earnings. The entire PA fought against a salary cap and the entire group of NHL owners fought for a salary cap. The fact that paying players a number slightly closer to their actual value in a free market makes it harder for a team to win is very much the team's problem. If teams actually want a system where good teams can more easily keep their roster together, they should propose a soft cap or luxury tax system for the next CBA negotiations. The players would happily engage in that negotiation. Until then, I don't want to hear about complaints regarding the hard cap.

 

[The Note]

I don't love the contract for the Leafs, but it is far better than letting him walk in UFA. It is much less team friendly than most other big money contracts due to the lack of term, but I don't think that the lack of term is any worse than giving too much term to a 30 year old. Matthews made his intentions to get exactly what he wanted crystal clear with his last contract. If the Leafs didn't expect a contract like this 2+ years ago then Shanahan should be relieved of his duties ASAP.

I think he will live up to the value of his cap percentage during the deal even if he doesn't provide 'bargain' years at the tail end.

I firmly believe that Matthews is a top 5 center in the world. In the last 5 years he is 2nd among all centers in goals and 4th in points. I don't buy into the argument that he is elite defensively, but I do think that he is very good defensively and better than most of the high end scoring centers. He has scored at a 37 goal and point per game pace over his last 5 playoff appearances. He has two Rockets and a Hart.

Assuming the $87.5M cap that seems pretty set in stone for 2024/25, this deal will represent 15.14% of the cap. It will be below 15% by year 2. I don't think that number is prohibitive of building a winner around a guy of his caliber. Now, the Leafs have other contractual concerns that will make it difficult to build that group around him. But I think those issues are a bigger problem than this contract, even if they (obviously) would have preferred to got 6+ years.

Personally, I love seeing players maximize their earnings. The entire PA fought against a salary cap and the entire group of NHL owners fought for a salary cap. The fact that paying players a number slightly closer to their actual value in a free market makes it harder for a team to win is very much the team's problem. If teams actually want a system where good teams can more easily keep their roster together, they should propose a soft cap or luxury tax system for the next CBA negotiations. The players would happily engage in that negotiation. Until then, I don't want to hear about complaints regarding the hard cap.

I agree with just about every word here, thanks for saving me the keystrokes. I think a big part of the breakdown is what you mention re: Shanahan. The die was cast as soon as they negotiated the Marner/Matthews RFA deals in the manner they did. This, or them walking, was always the most likely outcome. The NHL has convinced its fans that signing your cool, best players is somehow bad unless they are woefully underpaid for years (i.e. MacKinnon) because it makes the GM's job harder.

I don't think it was a slam dunk for the Leafs, but I also don't view that as ever being on the table. I also don't think it's some calamity, either, or that Matthews being one of the few NHLers actually trying to maximize his value means he's some villain.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Personally, I love seeing players maximize their earnings. The entire PA fought against a salary cap and the entire group of NHL owners fought for a salary cap. The fact that paying players a number slightly closer to their actual value in a free market makes it harder for a team to win is very much the team's problem.

Paying players closer to their actual value doesn't change the fact that in aggregate, players only get 50% of HRR. Some player getting paid "fair value" merely means there's less of the money pie for everyone else. When everyone else gets contracted for more money than what's in the pie - especially when they're all getting "fair value" - everyone has to take a little less via escrow to make all the pieces fit.

The smarter play for players has long been to take something less than fair value, but enough so that everyone gets their full contracted salary and no one has to deal with escrow and there's no money sitting unallocated. [There's a few ways to do this, one of which would be fairly easy and fairly sensible; I'm not diving into that, because then I have to refute at least 223 dumb solutions that have been proposed.] The NHLPA and player agents would rather have guys get 90% of $10 million over 100% of $9 million. Feel free to take guesses on why that is.

If teams actually want a system where good teams can more easily keep their roster together, they should propose a soft cap or luxury tax system for the next CBA negotiations. The players would happily engage in that negotiation.

Of course the players would. They've wanted to engage in those discussions in years past. The owners had, have, and will continue to have, zero interest in that. A hard cap = more cost certainty without a handful of teams driving up spending at the expense of everyone else, including the teams most likely to spend more money in a soft cap / luxury tax system.

And again, as long as the players are only getting a set percentage of HRR, any "solutions" with a soft cap or a luxury tax are really just arguments about how to contrive ways to slice the same pie - all of which are going to come at the expense of the players, especially the ones on the lower end of the pay scale.

Until then, I don't want to hear about complaints regarding the hard cap.

Going back a step: the only reason this - a hard cap that hasn't grown much in the last few years and also didn't do so this offseason - is a problem in 2023 is because the players demanded to be paid in full for the 2020-21 knowing it wouldn't be a full season. [Being paid those last couple of checks from '19-20 didn't help, but it wasn't nearly as back-breaking.] Had they taken pro-rated salaries for '20-21, they'd be out of escrow debt and the cap would have risen significantly in this offseason. They only have themselves, courtesy of the feckless Donald Fehr, to blame for that.

The only people who complain about the hard cap are fans of teams who can't keep their rosters together because of the cap, and the NHLPA who spent years failing to understand (and arguably still doesn't understand) the interplay between escrow and the salary cap. The owners don't give a rat's ass, especially the owners of higher-revenue teams who are making more money than ever under the current system, which they wouldn't in any other system that didn't explicitly tie salaries to revenues.

 

[Xerloris]

I don't love the contract for the Leafs, but it is far better than letting him walk in UFA. It is much less team friendly than most other big money contracts due to the lack of term, but I don't think that the lack of term is any worse than giving too much term to a 30 year old. Matthews made his intentions to get exactly what he wanted crystal clear with his last contract. If the Leafs didn't expect a contract like this 2+ years ago then Shanahan should be relieved of his duties ASAP.

I think he will live up to the value of his cap percentage during the deal even if he doesn't provide 'bargain' years at the tail end.

I firmly believe that Matthews is a top 5 center in the world. In the last 5 years he is 2nd among all centers in goals and 4th in points. I don't buy into the argument that he is elite defensively, but I do think that he is very good defensively and better than most of the high end scoring centers. He has scored at a 37 goal and point per game pace over his last 5 playoff appearances. He has two Rockets and a Hart.

Assuming the $87.5M cap that seems pretty set in stone for 2024/25, this deal will represent 15.14% of the cap. It will be below 15% by year 2. I don't think that number is prohibitive of building a winner around a guy of his caliber. Now, the Leafs have other contractual concerns that will make it difficult to build that group around him. But I think those issues are a bigger problem than this contract, even if they (obviously) would have preferred to got 6+ years.

Personally, I love seeing players maximize their earnings. The entire PA fought against a salary cap and the entire group of NHL owners fought for a salary cap. The fact that paying players a number slightly closer to their actual value in a free market makes it harder for a team to win is very much the team's problem. If teams actually want a system where good teams can more easily keep their roster together, they should propose a soft cap or luxury tax system for the next CBA negotiations. The players would happily engage in that negotiation. Until then, I don't want to hear about complaints regarding the hard cap.

How does a top 5 center in the world only top 80 points three times in his 7 year career? How does scoring 60 goals once, IN THE PAST make him worth 13+ mill? Not even a PPG in the playoffs here he could easily prove he's worth it but he's only ever seen the 2nd round once.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

How does a top 5 center in the world only top 80 points three times in his 7 year career? How does scoring 60 goals once, IN THE PAST make him worth 13+ mill? Not even a PPG in the playoffs here he could easily prove he's worth it but he's only ever seen the 2nd round once.

Some of that is definitely a “gotta pay more to keep players in Canada” tax

 

[Brian39]

How does a top 5 center in the world only top 80 points three times in his 7 year career? How does scoring 60 goals once, IN THE PAST make him worth 13+ mill? Not even a PPG in the playoffs here he could easily prove he's worth it but he's only ever seen the 2nd round once.

Here is the full list of centers who have one 60 goal season in the last decade: McDavid and Matthews.

No one has done it twice. "Only" scoring 60 goals in the distant past of 2021/22 isn't remotely the knock you think it is. It is very much an argument in favor of being a top 5 player in your position when you do something that only 1 other guy has done in the last decade. But let's set the benchmark lower than the 60 goal mark and just talk about leading the league in goals.

Here is the full list of centers who have won a single Richard trophy in the last decade: Crosby, Matthews, and McDavid.

Here is the full list of centers with 2 Rocket Richard trophies in the last decade: Matthews

Let's move on from him being the only center to lead the league in goals twice and one of just 3 to do it at all and talk about hitting the 50 goal benchmark. Here is the full list of centers that have hit 50 goals in the last decade: Drai, Matthews, McDavid, and Point

Drai is the only guy to do it more than once and he has an extremely impressive three 50+ goal seasons. Let's talk 40+ goals seasons since 50 is such a lofty benchmark that we can't even find five centers who have done it in the last decade.

Here is the full list of centers with five 40+ goal seasons since Matthews entered the league: Matthews

Here is the full list of centers with four 40+ goal seasons since Matthews entered the league: Drai, Matthews, and McDavid

Here is the list of centers with 40+ goals in each of the last 4 seasons: Matthews

Here is the full list of centers with just three 40+ goal seasons since Matthews entered the league: Drai, Matthews, and McDavid

Here is the full list of centers with just two 40+ goal seasons since Matthews entered the league: Drai, MacKinnon, Matthews, Point, and Stamkos.

Matthews leads all centers (and the league overall) in goals since he entered the league. He leads all centers in goals in each of the last 7, 6, 4, and 3 year sample sizes. He is the only center in the league with five 40+ seasons in the 7 years since he entered the NHL. He is the only center with multiple goal scoring titles in the the last decade and he has led the league in even strength goals 4 times, so it isn't like he is just reliant on hammering goals home on the PP.

McDavid and Drai can make an argument for being in the same ballpark in him as a goal scorer, but there isn't any argument that both are ahead of him. Whatever you value to get one over Matthews (highest high for Connor or consistency for Drai) means that Matthews has the edge over the other. He has proven to be at worst the 2nd best goal scoring center in the NHL and I think his resume more than makes clear that a reasonable person should have him at #1. The gap between these 3 and the next best goal scoring centers is enormous. Mathews is 74 goals up on #4 MacKinnon since entering the league and 53 goals up on #4 Aho over the last 4 seasons.

Any conversation about top 5 centers that doesn't include recognition of Matthews in the clear cut highest tier of goal scorers isn't worth having because it is blatantly cherry-picking to fit a pre-determined narrative against him. You don't get to ignore a guy's biggest strength (in arguably the most important area of the game) when discussing elite players.

Let's move past goals and talk about points. Looking at all points, he's 5th among all centers in points since he entered the league and is top 5 in each of the last 7, 5, 4, 3, and 2 year samples. He is 6th in the 6 year sample and 11th if you only look at last season.

In terms of individual seasons, he has finished top 5 in points among centers in 3 of the last 5 years. Drai and McDavid have done it all 5 years, MacKinnon has done it 4 of the 5, and Stamkos has done it twice. No one else has done it more than once. So he is squarely in 4th place among centers for 'top 5 point finshes' in the last 5 years.

Expand that to all 7 years of his career and he has accomplished the feat 3 times in 7 years. He is now further behind Drai, McDavid, and MacKinnon. He is tied with Sid for 4th with three top five finishes. Stamkos and Scheifele are behind them with 2 each and no one else has more than 1. So again, easily inside the top 5.

But let's move on to your first critique that he has "only" hit the 80 point mark 3 times. As far as I can tell, the only centers in the league with more 80+ point seasons in that stretch are McDavid, Drai, MacKinnon, Sid, and Stamkos. I'm not aware of anyone else who hit the 80 point mark three times, which puts would put Matthews alone at 6th in terms of most 80+ point seasons during his 7 year career.

3 of Sid's 5 80+ point seasons came in the first 3 years of Matthews' career and Matthews has outscored Sid in 3 of the last 4 years.

2 of Stamkos' 4 80+ point seasons came in the first 3 years of Matthews' career and Matthews has outscored Stamkos in 3 of the last 4 seasons. They tied in the other season (which happened to be the year Matthews won the Hart, the Lindsay, and the Rocket.

Are you seriously hanging your hat on Sid and Stamkos as better centers than Matthews in 2023 based on 80 point seasons they put up during Matthews' ELC?

In his 7 year career he's scored more goals than anyone in the league, has led the league in scoring more often than any other center, has more 40+ goal seasons than any other center, is the only player in the league to score 40+ goals in each of the last 4 seasons, and is 5th among centers in points. He remains in the top 5 in both goals and points in the vast majority of samples you can select, which is only true of 4 centers in this league. He is "only" 6th in 80+ point seasons since entering the league and he is younger than all 5 players ahead of him on the list. He has repeatedly outscored two of the five guys ahead of him on the list over the last 4 years. He is also better defensively than at least 3 of the guys ahead of him on the list.

These "justifications" for claiming he's not a top 5 center are asinine.

Want to debate that there is a sizeable gap between McDavid/Drai/MacKinnon and Matthews? These metrics become relevant and I've got no beef with that argument. But acting like there is another tier of centers jumping over Matthews to push him down multiple more spots out of the top 5 is ludicrous.

 

[execwrite1]

Just saw this - another Cup for the "Big Rig?"

SAINT PAUL, Minn. July 2 - Minnesota Wild General Manager Bill Guerin today announced the National Hockey League (NHL) club has acquired forwards Patrick Maroon and Max Cajkovic from the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for a seventh-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft. Tampa Bay will retain 20 percent of Maroon's contract.

 

[Bluesfan54]

Two players, with some salary retained, for a 7th? Yikes.

 

[SneakerPimp82]

Here is the full list of centers who have one 60 goal season in the last decade: McDavid and Matthews.

No one has done it twice. "Only" scoring 60 goals in the distant past of 2021/22 isn't remotely the knock you think it is. It is very much an argument in favor of being a top 5 player in your position when you do something that only 1 other guy has done in the last decade. But let's set the benchmark lower than the 60 goal mark and just talk about leading the league in goals.

Here is the full list of centers who have won a single Richard trophy in the last decade: Crosby, Matthews, and McDavid.

Here is the full list of centers with 2 Rocket Richard trophies in the last decade: Matthews

Let's move on from him being the only center to lead the league in goals twice and one of just 3 to do it at all and talk about hitting the 50 goal benchmark. Here is the full list of centers that have hit 50 goals in the last decade: Drai, Matthews, McDavid, and Point

Drai is the only guy to do it more than once and he has an extremely impressive three 50+ goal seasons. Let's talk 40+ goals seasons since 50 is such a lofty benchmark that we can't even find five centers who have done it in the last decade.

Here is the full list of centers with five 40+ goal seasons since Matthews entered the league: Matthews

Here is the full list of centers with four 40+ goal seasons since Matthews entered the league: Drai, Matthews, and McDavid

Here is the list of centers with 40+ goals in each of the last 4 seasons: Matthews

Here is the full list of centers with just three 40+ goal seasons since Matthews entered the league: Drai, Matthews, and McDavid

Here is the full list of centers with just two 40+ goal seasons since Matthews entered the league: Drai, MacKinnon, Matthews, Point, and Stamkos.

Matthews leads all centers (and the league overall) in goals since he entered the league. He leads all centers in goals in each of the last 7, 6, 4, and 3 year sample sizes. He is the only center in the league with five 40+ seasons in the 7 years since he entered the NHL. He is the only center with multiple goal scoring titles in the the last decade and he has led the league in even strength goals 4 times, so it isn't like he is just reliant on hammering goals home on the PP.

McDavid and Drai can make an argument for being in the same ballpark in him as a goal scorer, but there isn't any argument that both are ahead of him. Whatever you value to get one over Matthews (highest high for Connor or consistency for Drai) means that Matthews has the edge over the other. He has proven to be at worst the 2nd best goal scoring center in the NHL and I think his resume more than makes clear that a reasonable person should have him at #1. The gap between these 3 and the next best goal scoring centers is enormous. Mathews is 74 goals up on #4 MacKinnon since entering the league and 53 goals up on #4 Aho over the last 4 seasons.

Any conversation about top 5 centers that doesn't include recognition of Matthews in the clear cut highest tier of goal scorers isn't worth having because it is blatantly cherry-picking to fit a pre-determined narrative against him. You don't get to ignore a guy's biggest strength (in arguably the most important area of the game) when discussing elite players.

Let's move past goals and talk about points. Looking at all points, he's 5th among all centers in points since he entered the league and is top 5 in each of the last 7, 5, 4, 3, and 2 year samples. He is 6th in the 6 year sample and 11th if you only look at last season.

In terms of individual seasons, he has finished top 5 in points among centers in 3 of the last 5 years. Drai and McDavid have done it all 5 years, MacKinnon has done it 4 of the 5, and Stamkos has done it twice. No one else has done it more than once. So he is squarely in 4th place among centers for 'top 5 point finshes' in the last 5 years.

Expand that to all 7 years of his career and he has accomplished the feat 3 times in 7 years. He is now further behind Drai, McDavid, and MacKinnon. He is tied with Sid for 4th with three top five finishes. Stamkos and Scheifele are behind them with 2 each and no one else has more than 1. So again, easily inside the top 5.

But let's move on to your first critique that he has "only" hit the 80 point mark 3 times. As far as I can tell, the only centers in the league with more 80+ point seasons in that stretch are McDavid, Drai, MacKinnon, Sid, and Stamkos. I'm not aware of anyone else who hit the 80 point mark three times, which puts would put Matthews alone at 6th in terms of most 80+ point seasons during his 7 year career.

3 of Sid's 5 80+ point seasons came in the first 3 years of Matthews' career and Matthews has outscored Sid in 3 of the last 4 years.

2 of Stamkos' 4 80+ point seasons came in the first 3 years of Matthews' career and Matthews has outscored Stamkos in 3 of the last 4 seasons. They tied in the other season (which happened to be the year Matthews won the Hart, the Lindsay, and the Rocket.

Are you seriously hanging your hat on Sid and Stamkos as better centers than Matthews in 2023 based on 80 point seasons they put up during Matthews' ELC?

In his 7 year career he's scored more goals than anyone in the league, has led the league in scoring more often than any other center, has more 40+ goal seasons than any other center, is the only player in the league to score 40+ goals in each of the last 4 seasons, and is 5th among centers in points. He remains in the top 5 in both goals and points in the vast majority of samples you can select, which is only true of 4 centers in this league. He is "only" 6th in 80+ point seasons since entering the league and he is younger than all 5 players ahead of him on the list. He has repeatedly outscored two of the five guys ahead of him on the list over the last 4 years. He is also better defensively than at least 3 of the guys ahead of him on the list.

These "justifications" for claiming he's not a top 5 center are asinine.

Want to debate that there is a sizeable gap between McDavid/Drai/MacKinnon and Matthews? These metrics become relevant and I've got no beef with that argument. But acting like there is another tier of centers jumping over Matthews to push him down multiple more spots out of the top 5 is ludicrous.

Just like there's a Polak door, people really shouldn't open the Brian39 door either. This was thoroughly reasoned and well laid out. I view Matthews as an excellent player, but this write-up definitely put him in a different light for me, so thanks for the elucidation.

 

[Thallis]

Two players, with some salary retained, for a 7th? Yikes.

Cap space is at a premium and Pat is barely NHL caliber these days

 

[mk80]

Just saw this - another Cup for the "Big Rig?"

SAINT PAUL, Minn. July 2 - Minnesota Wild General Manager Bill Guerin today announced the National Hockey League (NHL) club has acquired forwards Patrick Maroon and Max Cajkovic from the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for a seventh-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft. Tampa Bay will retain 20 percent of Maroon's contract.

The Wild are the next team that needs to break their First Round elimination streak now, since Toronto snapped theirs.

 

[Brian39]

I think the Wild are way more likely to miss the playoffs than win a playoff round this year. I don't get any of the optimism surrounding them. They were a 103 point team last year and I don't see any reason to believe that they got better.

I've seen people talk about how moving on from Dumba is addition by subtraction, but he played more even strength minutes than anyone on the team. Brock Faber appears to be the internal replacement and I have pretty serious doubts that he is going to match that contribution as a 21 year old rookie. And I like Faber a lot long term. If not Faber, then a 38 year old Goligoski is going to have to pick up a few extra minutes a night. I don't see how this D isn't worse.

They got .919 goaltending last year and are running back the same tandem. Fleury turns 39 in a couple months and I think we are well into the timeframe where the wheels could fall off from the .908 he put up last year. Gustavsson is the clear plan as the starter after a great season last year. I don't think his .931 is sustainable, especially since he will absolutely be expected to start 10-15 more games than the 37 he started last year. I don't see a ton of optimism for this team getting .919 goaltending again. If Gustavsson plays like he did in 2021/22 and Fleury loses a step at 39, this could be a bottom 5-10 tandem in the league. I don't expect that, but I think it is about as likely as them giving Minnesota .919 goaltending again.

Calen Addison won their 1st unit PP job last season, but he is currently not under contract. They have $1.64M in cap space with only 20 men on the roster, so I assume they are lowballing him to take a deal near league-minimum. Assuming he takes it, they are still going to have to run a 22 man roster all year. If I were him, I wouldn't be in a rush to sign for $800k after a 29 point rookie season in 62 games. Offer sheets rarely happen, but I think he could probably find a team willing to offer him a 1 year deal at $1.4M. That would require no compensation going back to Minnesota and matching it means that they are running a 21 man roster all year. A $2M offer sheet would require just a 3rd round pick going back to Minnesota and would be nearly impossible for them to match. I think he has enough leverage to get a deal worth more than league minimum and leaves Minnesota without the cap space to add a 22nd player to the roster.

I like Marco Rossi in the long-term, but he hasn't convinced me that he is ready to be the 3C they need him to be.

Zuccarello has been great through his mid-30s, but he was clearly not as good at 35 as he was at 34. He turned 36 this year and we'll see how well he handles 1st line minutes again.

I see a team that is likely going to run a 21 man roster most the season despite having 7 guys aged 32+. I don't expect the goaltending to be as good and I don't expect the D to be as good without Dumba. I think they are a bit worse down the middle than last year, their 4th line got slower, and Zucc is at a pretty scary age.

They have a great prospect pool and I think that those prospects will start helping this roster in the not-too-distant future, but I just don't see it this year.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I think the Wild are way more likely to miss the playoffs than win a playoff round this year. I don't get any of the optimism surrounding them. They were a 103 point team last year and I don't see any reason to believe that they got better.

I've seen people talk about how moving on from Dumba is addition by subtraction, but he played more even strength minutes than anyone on the team. Brock Faber appears to be the internal replacement and I have pretty serious doubts that he is going to match that contribution as a 21 year old rookie. And I like Faber a lot long term. If not Faber, then a 38 year old Goligoski is going to have to pick up a few extra minutes a night. I don't see how this D isn't worse.

They got .919 goaltending last year and are running back the same tandem. Fleury turns 39 in a couple months and I think we are well into the timeframe where the wheels could fall off from the .908 he put up last year. Gustavsson is the clear plan as the starter after a great season last year. I don't think his .931 is sustainable, especially since he will absolutely be expected to start 10-15 more games than the 37 he started last year. I don't see a ton of optimism for this team getting .919 goaltending again. If Gustavsson plays like he did in 2021/22 and Fleury loses a step at 39, this could be a bottom 5-10 tandem in the league. I don't expect that, but I think it is about as likely as them giving Minnesota .919 goaltending again.

Calen Addison won their 1st unit PP job last season, but he is currently not under contract. They have $1.64M in cap space with only 20 men on the roster, so I assume they are lowballing him to take a deal near league-minimum. Assuming he takes it, they are still going to have to run a 22 man roster all year. If I were him, I wouldn't be in a rush to sign for $800k after a 29 point rookie season in 62 games. Offer sheets rarely happen, but I think he could probably find a team willing to offer him a 1 year deal at $1.4M. That would require no compensation going back to Minnesota and matching it means that they are running a 21 man roster all year. A $2M offer sheet would require just a 3rd round pick going back to Minnesota and would be nearly impossible for them to match. I think he has enough leverage to get a deal worth more than league minimum and leaves Minnesota without the cap space to add a 22nd player to the roster.

I like Marco Rossi in the long-term, but he hasn't convinced me that he is ready to be the 3C they need him to be.

Zuccarello has been great through his mid-30s, but he was clearly not as good at 35 as he was at 34. He turned 36 this year and we'll see how well he handles 1st line minutes again.

I see a team that is likely going to run a 21 man roster most the season despite having 7 guys aged 32+. I don't expect the goaltending to be as good and I don't expect the D to be as good without Dumba. I think they are a bit worse down the middle than last year, their 4th line got slower, and Zucc is at a pretty scary age.

They have a great prospect pool and I think that those prospects will start helping this roster in the not-too-distant future, but I just don't see it this year.

Buying out those suter and Parise deals killed them. By the time they expire they will have blown kaprizov’s best years. What a stupid franchise.

 

[Brockon]

Buying out those suter and Parise deals killed them. By the time they expire they will have blown kaprizov’s best years. What a stupid franchise.

I think Guerin was stuck between a rock and a hard place there. It's not like he inked those 13 year deals...

Not buying out those contracts would have had both Suter and Parise eating up a shade under 15.1m cap this season and next - buying them out and replacing them with league minimums costs ~16.3m this year and next.

Parise certainly wasn't worth 50% of his cap hit last year, Parise put up respectable numbers on a league minimum contract last year - but I don't think he's being brought back by anyone this year. Suter might have been serviceable compared to a league minimum replacement the last 2 years, but again for ~7.5m he's not worth it.

2021-22 penalty was ~4m (5.5m w/ min replacements), for 9.6m in savings.
2022-23 penalty was 12.7m (14.25 w/ min replacements), for a 850k savings.

The 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons are brutal to work around the penalty, but the following 4 seasons at 1.67m in penalties isn't terrible.

Guerin bought himself 2 years of wiggle room before being in cap hell this season and next - the 2025-26 seasons and beyond will be trivial in comparison. To say he's wasted Kaprizov’s best years... He gave Kap his age 24 & 25 seasons with freedom to add, steals the age 26 & 27 years by having to penny pinch or potentially play a short roster and has a small handicap for Kaprizov’s age 28 pending UFA season where the Wild have cap space to play with again...

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I think Guerin was stuck between a rock and a hard place there. It's not like he inked those 13 year deals...

Not buying out those contracts would have had both Suter and Parise eating up a shade under 15.1m cap this season and next - buying them out and replacing them with league minimums costs ~16.3m this year and next.

Parise certainly wasn't worth 50% of his cap hit last year, Parise put up respectable numbers on a league minimum contract last year - but I don't think he's being brought back by anyone this year. Suter might have been serviceable compared to a league minimum replacement the last 2 years, but again for ~7.5m he's not worth it.

2021-22 penalty was ~4m (5.5m w/ min replacements), for 9.6m in savings.
2022-23 penalty was 12.7m (14.25 w/ min replacements), for a 850k savings.

The 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons are brutal to work around the penalty, but the following 4 seasons at 1.67m in penalties isn't terrible.

Guerin bought himself 2 years of wiggle room before being in cap hell this season and next - the 2025-26 seasons and beyond will be trivial in comparison. To say he's wasted Kaprizov’s best years... He gave Kap his age 24 & 25 seasons with freedom to add, steals the age 26 & 27 years by having to penny pinch or potentially play a short roster and has a small handicap for Kaprizov’s age 28 pending UFA season where the Wild have cap space to play with again...

but those weren't his only options. guerin also could have retained and dealt them. or convinced parise he was hurt and had to go on ltir. sometimes solutions present themselves, but they boxed themselves into unacttractive situation on purpose. and under current scenario, best case for wild is that they can convince kaprizov that they won't suck going forward and that even though they wasted his prime, he should let them give him huge $ to try to waste the rest.

 

[Brian39]

Buying out those suter and Parise deals killed them. By the time they expire they will have blown kaprizov’s best years. What a stupid franchise.

I will never understand those buyouts. So unbelievably short-sighted.

They only saved $1.16M on each deal in 2022/23 (so $2.33M total). A league minimum replacement plus the buyout penalty means that they saved $385k on each via the buyout for this season. How did they use $770k in savings? They finished the year with $960k in cap space that went unused. Literally just didn't utilize the minimal savings they got. Let the cap space go unaccrued and spent on nothing. Amazing.

This year and next year, the combined buyout penalty is $335k less than their combined cap hits on the original deal. It will cost them about $1.2M more to pay league minimum guys to take those spots then simply using Suter and Parise as healthy scratch fodder. They are losing money on the buyouts this year and next.

And then for another 4 years after the contracts would have expired, they get to eat $833k cap penalties for each.

The only season where they got any positive value from the buyouts was 2021/22. They saved $5.166M on each one this year. Almost immediately following the buyout, Guerin gave 36 year old Alex Goligoski a 1 year deal at $5M AAV to replace the hole from Suter's departure. So a $166k savings to go from 36 year old Ryan Suter to 36 year old Goligoski. Hard to sell me on this being a necessity worth half a decade of future pain. The savings on Parise were more critical. He had less in the tank than Suter and his savings were more about retaining core pieces. But they started the year with $3M in space. and ended with $1.5M in space. About $3M in their cap allocations that year went to Victor Rask, who was clearly washed and eventually given away (with 50% retention) to Seattle. Getting rid of Rask instead of Parise would have opened up just about all the cap space that they actually used from the savings on the Parise buyout.

All in all, the roster moves made in 2021/22 with the savings were pretty inconsequential. They didn't utilize the savings in 2022/23, and they are at a net loss of cap space for the next 6 seasons. This is stunningly bad cap management. This is "someone should lose their job over it" bad cap management.

 

[Brian39]

I think Guerin was stuck between a rock and a hard place there. It's not like he inked those 13 year deals...

Not buying out those contracts would have had both Suter and Parise eating up a shade under 15.1m cap this season and next - buying them out and replacing them with league minimums costs ~16.3m this year and next.

Parise certainly wasn't worth 50% of his cap hit last year, Parise put up respectable numbers on a league minimum contract last year - but I don't think he's being brought back by anyone this year. Suter might have been serviceable compared to a league minimum replacement the last 2 years, but again for ~7.5m he's not worth it.

2021-22 penalty was ~4m (5.5m w/ min replacements), for 9.6m in savings.
2022-23 penalty was 12.7m (14.25 w/ min replacements), for a 850k savings.

The 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons are brutal to work around the penalty, but the following 4 seasons at 1.67m in penalties isn't terrible.

Guerin bought himself 2 years of wiggle room before being in cap hell this season and next - the 2025-26 seasons and beyond will be trivial in comparison. To say he's wasted Kaprizov’s best years... He gave Kap his age 24 & 25 seasons with freedom to add, steals the age 26 & 27 years by having to penny pinch or potentially play a short roster and has a small handicap for Kaprizov’s age 28 pending UFA season where the Wild have cap space to play with again...

I agree that Guerin inherited a big problem. Parise was playing well below even 50% of his contract. I think that there were other avenues than a quick buyout, but I get that his play was well below where it needed to be for that contract to be moveable.

But Suter's contract wasn't that big of a problem. Dallas gave him a 4 year deal at $3.65M AAV as soon as free agency opened. 50% of his contract with Minnesota would have been 4 more years at $3.769M AAV. Given what he got on the open market, that is absolutely a contract that Guerin should have been able to give away at 50% retention. Suter had a NMC, but it shouldn't have been that difficult to get a list of destinations from him. "We're moving on from you and will be healthy scratching you next season if you don't help facilitate a trade" is the type of conversation a GM needs to be able to have.

Even if Suter only gave them a list of 1 team, he should have been able to find a way to get it done. Call up that team and say "hey, I want to trade Ryan Suter and he will waive to go to you. I'll retain 50% on him and give him away for literally nothing. If you find another team to retain another 50%, I'll even throw a 6th round pick into the deal to help you convince them." Suter at an AAV under $2M would have had legitimately good trade value. Any competing team that he'd want to go to in 2021 would have loved him at that value and probably would have paid the middleman a 1st (or close to it) to retain. Given the limited salary owed, Arizona would have loved to get involved in a deal like that. $2.5M real dollars spread out over 4 years to get legit picks? Hell yeah.

Eating the massive buyout penalties on Suter rather than finding a way to deal him at 50% retention was a huge failure.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I agree that Guerin inherited a big problem. Parise was playing well below even 50% of his contract. I think that there were other avenues than a quick buyout, but I get that his play was well below where it needed to be for that contract to be moveable.

But Suter's contract wasn't that big of a problem. Dallas gave him a 4 year deal at $3.65M AAV as soon as free agency opened. 50% of his contract with Minnesota would have been 4 more years at $3.769M AAV. Given what he got on the open market, that is absolutely a contract that Guerin should have been able to give away at 50% retention. Suter had a NMC, but it shouldn't have been that difficult to get a list of destinations from him. "We're moving on from you and will be healthy scratching you next season if you don't help facilitate a trade" is the type of conversation a GM needs to be able to have.

Even if Suter only gave them a list of 1 team, he should have been able to find a way to get it done. Call up that team and say "hey, I want to trade Ryan Suter and he will waive to go to you. I'll retain 50% on him and give him away for literally nothing. If you find another team to retain another 50%, I'll even throw a 6th round pick into the deal to help you convince them." Suter at an AAV under $2M would have had legitimately good trade value. Any competing team that he'd want to go to in 2021 would have loved him at that value and probably would have paid the middleman a 1st (or close to it) to retain. Given the limited salary owed, Arizona would have loved to get involved in a deal like that. $2.5M real dollars spread out over 4 years to get legit picks? Hell yeah.

Eating the massive buyout penalties on Suter rather than finding a way to deal him at 50% retention was a huge failure.

100% agree. I feel bad for their fans. Such a great market. They deserve better than commitment to mediocrity.

 

[Brockon]

but those weren't his only options. guerin also could have retained and dealt them. or convinced parise he was hurt and had to go on ltir. sometimes solutions present themselves, but they boxed themselves into unacttractive situation on purpose. and under current scenario, best case for wild is that they can convince kaprizov that they won't suck going forward and that even though they wasted his prime, he should let them give him huge $ to try to waste the rest.

Who has the cap space to absorb 7.538m in cap space for 2 years right now? In order to be able to keep some of the more desirable departing pieces or replace them, they'd essentially need max retention.

4 teams this year.

Nashville - 7.9m. 10 players signed into next year with 27.8m in space with numerous players they're likely to want to retain due small raises or more substantial deals with term (Novak, Trenin, Tomasino, Fabbro, Carrier).

Buffalo - 8.8m. 9 players signed into next year, 41.1m in space, with Dahlin and Mittelstadt as notables they're likely to give significant raises.

Chicago - 12.9m. 9 players signed into next year, 53.1m in space with numerous players they're likely to want to retain due small raises or more substantial deals with term (Katchouk, Entwhistle, Raddysh, Guttman, Phillips).

Anaheim - 16.6m (Zegras and Drysdale still unsigned). 11 players signed into next year, 43.3m in space, no significant raises due.

Now, if I'm one of the 2 teams potentially able to absorb the hits and not trying to get into the playoffs - I'm asking for the moon. I'm asking for multiple firsts or first equivalents - basically destroying Minnesota's ability to build up around Kaprizov... I don’t think that's putting Minny in a more favourable position to succeed, even if they retain or replace Dumba and/or kept Fiala instead of dealing him to LA.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Who has the cap space to absorb 7.538m in cap space for 2 years right now? In order to be able to keep some of the more desirable departing pieces or replace them, they'd essentially need max retention.

4 teams this year.

Nashville - 7.9m. 10 players signed into next year with 27.8m in space with numerous players they're likely to want to retain due small raises or more substantial deals with term (Novak, Trenin, Tomasino, Fabbro, Carrier).

Buffalo - 8.8m. 9 players signed into next year, 41.1m in space, with Dahlin and Mittelstadt as notables they're likely to give significant raises.

Chicago - 12.9m. 9 players signed into next year, 53.1m in space with numerous players they're likely to want to retain due small raises or more substantial deals with term (Katchouk, Entwhistle, Raddysh, Guttman, Phillips).

Anaheim - 16.6m (Zegras and Drysdale still unsigned). 11 players signed into next year, 43.3m in space, no significant raises due.

Now, if I'm one of the 2 teams potentially able to absorb the hits and not trying to get into the playoffs - I'm asking for the moon. I'm asking for multiple firsts or first equivalents - basically destroying Minnesota's ability to build up around Kaprizov... I don’t think that's putting Minny in a more favourable position to succeed, even if they retain or replace Dumba and/or kept Fiala instead of dealing him to LA.

That isn’t right question. They could have taken $ back if they just wanted to dump them. Instead they pay $ for nothing at expense of team.

 

[Brockon]

That isn’t right question. They could have taken $ back if they just wanted to dump them. Instead they pay $ for nothing at expense of team.

I agree that the route Guerin took wasn't the best decision. Trading with retention would have been much better as Brian stated while I was getting my numbers together for my earlier post.

Another element you're overlooking is the effect that COVID imposed on the trade market and the resulting flat cap. There was very little movement in the summer of 2021. That period of uncertainty definitely played into the decision to just take the buyouts to the chin. Nobody knew how long the cap ramifications would run, if we'd be faced with further shutdowns or janky seasons etc...

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I agree that the route Guerin took wasn't the best decision. Trading with retention would have been much better as Brian stated while I was getting my numbers together for my earlier post.

Another element you're overlooking is the effect that COVID imposed on the trade market and the resulting flat cap. There was very little movement in the summer of 2021. That period of uncertainty definitely played into the decision to just take the buyouts to the chin. Nobody knew how long the cap ramifications would run, if we'd be faced with further shutdowns or janky seasons etc...

Isn’t that even more reason why it was dumb decision? They didn’t have to buy them out. Waiting was always smarter choice.

 

[Blueswin]

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[Brockon]

Isn’t that even more reason why it was dumb decision? They didn’t have to buy them out. Waiting was always smarter choice.

Waiting for the penalties to be worse for the buyouts if COVID cost the league another year of janky division only bubble play?

Waiting while the leadership roles they wanted gone continued to play a detrimental role to the team?

Waiting for 2 declining stars to become absolute anchors while taking up ~19% of your cap unable to play middle of the lineup roles?

Parise looks like he's unlikely to be re-signed for league minimum right now, although it's possible this is Lou not finalizing the paperwork for the contract again until the last minute.

Suter played huge minutes last year (2nd in Toi in DAL), but fans have soured on him and per the following article, he was taking pretty sloppy penalties in the playoffs that cost Dallas games. I was busy working graveyards for most of May and couldn't watch any games, so I'm stuck using other's opinions on Suter's play. Dallas Stars 2022-23 Player Grades: Ryan Suter

There's an alternate reality where covid derails another season, draws out the flat cap and the buyout decision consequently looks better (especially if the buyout gets revised or forgiven due to a potentially cancelled season). In July 2021, fresh off the bubble playoffs surrounded by talks of season suspension while scrambling for a safe way to host a modified format, there's reason to believe that things could have easily gotten worse for prospective future buyouts. There's a huge pressure to do SOMETHING, little factual evidence to go off and radical policies being made erratically state to state, in addition to nation to nation with ramifications for the NHL.

Hindsight makes it particularly easy to say Guerin done f***ed up. But 2 years ago, there was a lot more uncertainty going on.