Around the NHL 2022-2023 *Mod warning in effect pg145

[PocketNines]

I’m struggling to see the logic of this trade from NYI’s perspective without Horvat extended. They aren’t winning shit this yr in that loaded conference. You do you, Lou.

Aside from the inherent murkiness of NYI because of Lamoreillo, it makes me think of a third category of deadline deals, "hopeful rental." There isn't anything worked out in advance about an extension but the buying team has a hope it'll work out and the player will extend. Both ROR and Tarasenko seem like hopeful rentals to me.

As contrasted with pure rentals and deals that come with an extension announcement.

 

[Brian39]

The Horvat deal helps the value of our rentals if the Isles stay in the mix and aren't looking to flip Horvat. This is a pretty high-value package.

The Isles' 2023 1st (top 12 protected) is objectively a higher valued asset than most of the 1st rounders that should be in play over the next month. If the league cancelled the season today, it is set to be the #13 overall pick. Unless Detroit gets into the mix, no other buyer is lower in the standings. There is a realistic chance that they finish with a top 12 pick and then send Vancouver an unprotected 2024 1st. Looking at the Isles cap structure, they don't have a ton of flexibility to improve for next year and they are already an old team. That unprotected 1st could realistically wind up being a top 5-10 pick. It is unlikely that any other 1sts moved this month carry the same possibility. If they do squeak into the playoffs, I think most would agree that they are one of the least likely teams to win 2 rounds and have their pick in the final 4 picks of the 1st round. There are no guarantees of pick placement, but the odds of this pick being 13-20 is higher than that of any other probable buyer.

Raty isn't an elite prospect, but he was the Isles' top prospect. He's a good enough prospect that teams can't point at him and say that their 4th or 5th best prospects are good comps. He's a legitimate 'plus' to that high-value 1st.

Beauvillier is a pretty good middle 6 guy who has been really good in two different playoff runs. His cap hit is higher than you'd like, but it is only for 1 more season and it isn't brutally high. This isn't a cap dump that will handcuff a team for years. Vancouver should be able to get an asset for him down the line if they retain salary, so it is just a 'meh' contract on their books for up to a year.

Finally, the Canucks only retain 25% on Horvat (just enough to make this a dollar-in-dollar-out trade for the Islanders. The Canucks are getting Horvat at $4.125M AAV. We can make ROR and Tarasenko cheaper against the cap.

All in all, the Canucks got a good return for a guy that they were selling as a pure rental. The thing that worries me is that there is nothing stopping Lou from calling teams now and saying "make me an offer contingent on reaching an extension with Horvat. If I like it then I'll let you talk numbers with his agent." I don't think that's the plan, but we'll be in a worse spot if Horvat is on the market again in 3-4 weeks. But if he's not on the market again, then we have pushed a step closer toward a seller's market and there are plenty of potential returns that are a noticeable step down in value that I'd be happy to get for any of our rentals.

 

[PocketNines]

All of that is true about the Isles maybe flipping Horvat. If they do, they almost certainly moved to a worse pick in the first round and what did they get out of it? They were talking about this deal in the NHL Network intermission and it was pointed out Raty is expected to be an NHL player. Is Beauvillier's contract so onerous (it's got one more year at 4.15M) that this move was made to get out from under it? I doubt that.

Thus I really do think they want to extend Horvat. If they put him back on the market do they gain? Was the exercise worthwhile? I am not sure they gain if they flip him.

 

[rumrokh]

All of that is true about the Isles maybe flipping Horvat. If they do, they almost certainly moved to a worse pick in the first round and what did they get out of it? They were talking about this deal in the NHL Network intermission and it was pointed out Raty is expected to be an NHL player. Is Beauvillier's contract so onerous (it's got one more year at 4.15M) that this move was made to get out from under it? I doubt that.

Thus I really do think they want to extend Horvat. If they put him back on the market do they gain? Was the exercise worthwhile? I am not sure they gain if they flip him.

I agree.

If he's signed, they'll likely get the equivalent of two first rounders and an okay to solid third piece. And if they're picking in the low to mid teens, man, I'd trade two late first rounders for that any day. It makes it seem like 1. they basically had soured on Raty and were willing to spend him to get rid of Beauvillier; or 2. they really value the chance at negotiating an extension with Horvat.

Given that Beauvillier's cap hit isn't THAT bad, it looks like that move is exclusively to clear space to sign Horvat, himself. So, while I grasp the tactics of a flip, none of this move looks like that's the game they want to play.

 

[PocketNines]

And if they're picking in the low to mid teens, man, I'd trade two late first rounders for that any day.

This is the core of why I'm arguing it's a Seller's Market type of deal in a situation where our expectations for ROR/Tarasenko top out at a late first as the main piece. What would you have to add to the 25th pick to turn it into the 15th pick? Certainly some real value. Important value when assessing what this portends for buyer/seller on other deals.

 

[Brian39]

All of that is true about the Isles maybe flipping Horvat. If they do, they almost certainly moved to a worse pick in the first round and what did they get out of it? They were talking about this deal in the NHL Network intermission and it was pointed out Raty is expected to be an NHL player. Is Beauvillier's contract so onerous (it's got one more year at 4.15M) that this move was made to get out from under it? I doubt that.

Thus I really do think they want to extend Horvat. If they put him back on the market do they gain? Was the exercise worthwhile? I am not sure they gain if they flip him.

I don't think that the plan is to flip him. Plan A is to make the playoffs AND extend him. Plans B and C would be to make the playoffs (but don't extend him) or extend him (but don't make the playoffs). But Plan D just absolutely can not be miss the playoffs and let him walk.

Missing the playoffs isn't an unlikely scenario and strong uncertainty about making the playoffs by the week of the trade deadline is the overwhelmingly most likely scenario.

Barring a 7-2-2 style 11 game stretch, their playoff odds are going to be below 50% on that Monday morning before the Friday trade deadline. They essentially just turned their first 5 games after the break into borderline must-win games. They play Philly and Seattle in a B2B, then play Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa. They really can't afford to go any less than 3-1-1, because after that they run a gauntlet until the deadline: Pittsburgh, @ Boston, @ Pittsburgh, Winnipeg, LA, and @ winnipeg. And if they still haven't decided and want to see how the week starts, they play in Minnesota to conclude their pre-deadline schedule.

They are 2 points back of the Pens for the WC2 spot, but they've played 3 more games than the Pens. They are 1 point back of the 9th place Sabres, but have also played 3 more games than them. They are 3 points back of the Caps for the WC1 spot (same number of games played) and they are just 1 point up on the surging Panthers (same number of games played). They are 4th place in a 5 team race for the final 2 playoff spots and two of the teams ahead of them have 3 games in hand.

12 games isn't enough time to pass multiple teams and build a decent cushion. Even if they start winning ASAP, they aren't gong to be comfortably in a playoff spot by the deadline. So if Horvat won't commit and sign an extension with them by the end of February, then they pretty much have to see how much of that value they can recoup.

I'm not worried that Lou made this deal because he wants to flip Horvat for a better package by letting teams talk extension with him. I'm worried that he's not going to have a choice.

 

[PocketNines]

I don't think that the plan is to flip him. Plan A is to make the playoffs AND extend him. Plans B and C would be to make the playoffs (but don't extend him) or extend him (but don't make the playoffs). But Plan D just absolutely can not be miss the playoffs and let him walk.

Missing the playoffs isn't an unlikely scenario and strong uncertainty about making the playoffs by the week of the trade deadline is the overwhelmingly most likely scenario.

Barring a 7-2-2 style 11 game stretch, their playoff odds are going to be below 50% on that Monday morning before the Friday trade deadline. They essentially just turned their first 5 games after the break into borderline must-win games. They play Philly and Seattle in a B2B, then play Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa. They really can't afford to go any less than 3-1-1, because after that they run a gauntlet until the deadline: Pittsburgh, @ Boston, @ Pittsburgh, Winnipeg, LA, and @ winnipeg. And if they still haven't decided and want to see how the week starts, they play in Minnesota to conclude their pre-deadline schedule.

They are 2 points back of the Pens for the WC2 spot, but they've played 3 more games than the Pens. They are 1 point back of the 9th place Sabres, but have also played 3 more games than them. They are 3 points back of the Caps for the WC1 spot (same number of games played) and they are just 1 point up on the surging Panthers (same number of games played). They are 4th place in a 5 team race for the final 2 playoff spots and two of the teams ahead of them have 3 games in hand.

12 games isn't enough time to pass multiple teams and build a decent cushion. Even if they start winning ASAP, they aren't gong to be comfortably in a playoff spot by the deadline. So if Horvat won't commit and sign an extension with them by the end of February, then they pretty much have to see how much of that value they can recoup.

I'm not worried that Lou made this deal because he wants to flip Horvat for a better package by letting teams talk extension with him. I'm worried that he's not going to have a choice.

I hear the Plan D argument and it's a good one. Totally correct. But as our combined analysis indicates, Lamoreillo has jammed himself up pretty good if he doesn't have some nasty stank on the hopeful part of "hopeful rental" ... I do see how putting Horvat back on the market can hurt us.

In the end I'd bet the value we get depends a lot on whether ROR/Tarasenko are determined to go to market or whether being acquired by a contender at this timing in their careers means they'd extend with the buyer. And right now we're waiting for indications of what's going on behind the scenes.

Now, if Horvat does go back on the market and returns, let's say, the same price he just went for, that isn't necessarily bad besides removing one buyer. Hopefully Horvat arrives on the scene and has an explosive 12 games so they win them.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

All of that is true about the Isles maybe flipping Horvat. If they do, they almost certainly moved to a worse pick in the first round and what did they get out of it? They were talking about this deal in the NHL Network intermission and it was pointed out Raty is expected to be an NHL player. Is Beauvillier's contract so onerous (it's got one more year at 4.15M) that this move was made to get out from under it? I doubt that.

Thus I really do think they want to extend Horvat. If they put him back on the market do they gain? Was the exercise worthwhile? I am not sure they gain if they flip him.

I was trying to figure out why both parties were interested in this deal this far before the deadline. I can't quite understand Vancouver's motive. But for the Islanders, I guess they must have sweetened the deal enough for Vancouver to say YES now, giving the Isle time to entice him to re-sign. Otherwise they have some space to recoup value for him if they fail? That would be a little demoralizing, but maybe they'll come out OK.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I was trying to figure out why both parties were interested in this deal this far before the deadline. I can't quite understand Vancouver's motive. But for the Islanders, I guess they must have sweetened the deal enough for Vancouver to say YES now, giving the Isle time to entice him to re-sign. Otherwise they have some space to recoup value for him if they fail? That would be a little demoralizing, but maybe they'll come out OK.

Isles didn’t want to wait until TDL because their GM is 80 and might not live that long.

 

[TK 421]

Isles didn’t want to wait until TDL because their GM is 80 and might not live that long.

He's out here squandering his last years pretending he doesn't pee his pants occasionally when he could be settled in at a nursing home making inappropriate comments to the staff and going to bed at 4pm. To get Lou to stop showing up they'll need to disguise his room at the nursing home as his office and give him a cell phone to call other senile former GM's on.

 

[PJJJP]

Senators winning is good news for us. Creates more separation between us. Shame that the game didn't go to OT so the habs could gain a point

 

[PocketNines]

I'm liking sitting with the 8th pick at the break.

Teams that must not get Bedard: Chicago, San Jose
Teams that I don't mind so much if they get Bedard: Columbus, Philadelphia, Anaheim, Vancouver
I would probably quickly regret it from an annoyance POV: Vancouver
Team I think could quickly get tough for us if they get Bedard: Arizona
Team I would secretly like to get Bedard if not us: Montreal
Team that deserves Bedard: St. Louis

 

[PJJJP]

I'm liking sitting with the 8th pick at the break.

Teams that must not get Bedard: Chicago, San Jose
Teams that I don't mind so much if they get Bedard: Columbus, Philadelphia, Anaheim, Vancouver
I would probably quickly regret it from an annoyance POV: Vancouver
Team I think could quickly get tough for us if they get Bedard: Arizona
Team I would secretly like to get Bedard if not us: Montreal
Team that deserves Bedard: St. Louis

I don't want any of Chicago, SJ, Arizona, Montreal, and the Canucks to get Bedard. I don't mind Columbus, Philly, or Anaheim getting him. I'd rather us get Bedard or the very least keep him out of the division. Montreal, SJ, and the Canucks would just be annoying if they got him.

 

[PocketNines]

I don't want any of Chicago, SJ, Arizona, Montreal, and the Canucks to get Bedard. I don't mind Columbus, Philly, or Anaheim getting him. I'd rather us get Bedard or the very least keep him out of the division. Montreal, SJ, and the Canucks would just be annoying if they got him.

For me it's more, I want to see Montreal be great in the NHL again but it's a personal preference. Just think how insane that would drive Vancouver fans him being from Vancouver and being a legendary Montreal hero. It would drive a lot of Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa and Bruin fans crazy ...

 

[STL fan in MN]

He's out here squandering his last years pretending he doesn't pee his pants occasionally when he could be settled in at a nursing home making inappropriate comments to the staff and going to bed at 4pm. To get Lou to stop showing up they'll need to disguise his room at the nursing home as his office and give him a cell phone to call other senile former GM's on.

Get this man a Jitterbug with direct lines to Pleau, Bob Gainey and Cliff Fletcher and he’ll be all set.

 

[Brian39]

I'm fine with Bedard going anywhere but Chicago. There are some teams I'd prefer more than others and going out East would be ideal if he's not a Blue.

But just not Chicago.

 

[Majorityof1]

I don't want any of Chicago, SJ, Arizona, Montreal, and the Canucks to get Bedard. I don't mind Columbus, Philly, or Anaheim getting him. I'd rather us get Bedard or the very least keep him out of the division. Montreal, SJ, and the Canucks would just be annoying if they got him.

Anaheim would be fun. Imagine a Zegras- Bedard-Terry line if they stacked the top line. Terry and Zegras are already fun to watch. Adding Bedard would just be sick.

 

[Xerloris]

Anaheim would be fun. Imagine a Zegras- Bedard-Terry line if they stacked the top line. Terry and Zegras are already fun to watch. Adding Bedard would just be sick.

If I am going to imagine Bedard anywhere it will be in St.Louis

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

I'm fine with Bedard going anywhere but Chicago. There are some teams I'd prefer more than others and going out East would be ideal if he's not a Blue.

But just not Chicago.

I’ve told myself it’s a lock to happen, so if it doesn’t I’ll be excited

 

[Mike Liut]

Anaheim would be fun. Imagine a Zegras- Bedard-Terry line if they stacked the top line. Terry and Zegras are already fun to watch. Adding Bedard would just be sick.

Anaheim has too many good prospects. I don’t want Bedard going there. Could be scary. I’m hoping he goes to Columbus

 

[mk80]

This Canes vs Sabres game on TNT tonight should be a fun one to watch

 

[PocketNines]

The Jeff Skinner Cup

Reminds me ... that 2006 series between them was ridiculous. One of the more memorable non-Blues series

 

[joe galiba]

Stone out indefinitely with back surgery, its officially a Sellers Market

 

[Xerloris]

Stone out indefinitely with back surgery, its officially a Sellers Market

Sounds like Vegas sure could use some players.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Sounds like Vegas sure could use some players.

It’s hard to win a Cup. You can have the best lineup and be poised for a serious run, but you need to stay healthy enough and you need your goalie sharp. I don’t mind Vegas learning that the hard way. Also don’t mind trading UFAs to them.