Around the NHL 11 - 2023/24

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I think leafs were banking on a competitive advantage in older players choosing to play in Toronto at a deep hometown discount.

I don’t think this came to fruition.
I don't really think that hometown discount applies in reality. Toronto is arguably the biggest fishbowl in the world of hockey. Guys may grow up dreaming of playing for the Leafs (at least guys that were born in the same era as me - what exactly have the Leafs got to brag about in the last 30+ years?) but I think much as some guys don't like playing in the fishbowl that is Winnipeg, it's about 5 million times worse in Toronto.

Think of a guy like Dubois. Wants to live in a southern market with anonymity. Or guys like EK who seemed to miss the Atlanta scene. I think it's much harder to play for any Canadian team than it is in the U.S. where the league isn't in the top five of sports (NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, NASCAR, ...)

Toronto is a great hockey market but it comes with unmatched scrutiny of your play. Take a discount to play for a team that is poorly balanced or go to a southern U.S. market with an at least equivalent shot at the cup? No brainer there IMO. Won't argue that hockey wives would be more accepting of the Big Smoke than Winnipeg, but that's not the comparison being made. It's Toronto vs. wherever else it may be.
 
I hope Nylander stays out east.
You have to think he’s the odd man out.
I don’t think Sheldon will survive past this season.
Leafs fans are insufferable so at least this brings some enjoyment to our board.
Nylander to the Red Wings could be interesting.
 
I think leafs were banking on a competitive advantage in older players choosing to play in Toronto at a deep hometown discount.

I don’t think this came to fruition.

They were banking on the cap going up by normal amounts which would have made those big contracts look better. Covid really screwed them as they got no benefit of a cap increase which should have happened, and now just as the cap is going up again, their contracts are due again lol.

I hope Nylander stays out east.
You have to think he’s the odd man out.
I don’t think Sheldon will survive past this season.
Leafs fans are insufferable so at least this brings some enjoyment to our board.

With the season he is having, I don't think they can sell not signing Nylander to the Leafs fans. I think with the cap increase and Tavares soon coming off the books they can make it work and re-sign all those guys provided Marner doesn't demand the moon for his next deal.
 
They were banking on the cap going up by normal amounts which would have made those big contracts look better. Covid really screwed them as they got no benefit of a cap increase which should have happened, and now just as the cap is going up again, their contracts are due again lol.
The part in bold is the biggest mistake Dubas made during his tenure. I can understand how COVID messed the cap situation up in the short-term, but paying top 10 salaries to Matthews and Marner and not getting 8 years of both is unforgivable. It screwed them up already with Matthews, and I wouldn't be shocked to see Marner follow suit and ask for 13 too. What are they going to do, let him go for nothing?
With the season he is having, I don't think they can sell not signing Nylander to the Leafs fans. I think with the cap increase and Tavares soon coming off the books they can make it work and re-sign all those guys provided Marner doesn't demand the moon for his next deal.
(Un)fortunately, those renewals will leave them with no money to improve the team elsewhere. Matthews alone will capture 1.6 million of the 4 million the cap is going up by. Nylander will take the rest and then some, albeit justifiably. Woll's contract is the only thing keeping that cap structure remotely intact.

That's the tragedy of the core four in a nutshell: an unprecedented share of the cap was allocated to four players that couldn't provide the team with anything, and because the team has been and still is so top-heavy, there's no other option but to give them even more money when the contracts are up. They should have blown it all up.
 
Coilers up 4-1, 11 minutes left in the 2nd

If they win, they move from 6th in the west wild card to 3rd in the west wild card

Goal differential is their friend ….. :facepalm:
 
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Coilers up 4-1, 11 minutes left in the 2nd

If they win, they move from 6th in the west wild card to 3rd in the west wild card

Goal differential is their friend ….. :facepalm:
Hope they go on a nice 5 game losing streak

Anyone actually know if their underlying numbers are good or if they are unsustainable?
 
It's been the band aide solution in Toronto for years in net, if there was no salary cap they could fix it but they are top heavy in the forward department and it's going to get worse when they give Nylander 11m. Playing AHL D men and poor goaltending wont win you the Cup
b/c there's maybe 5-6 goalies in the NHL that you can rely on consistently for year-to-year great numbers on average. & those respective teams who have them will probably never trade them (ie: NYR, WPG, NYI etc).

most teams are taking chances on no name guys (Binnington, Murray) or journeyman players (Kuemper, Hill). even w/ a HOF goalie, the Jets haven't accomplished much of note in the POs. so what's really the right approach :dunno:
 
b/c there's maybe 5-6 goalies in the NHL that you can rely on consistently for year-to-year great numbers on average. & those respective teams who have them will probably never trade them (ie: NYR, WPG, NYI etc).

most teams are taking chances on no name guys (Binnington, Murray) or journeyman players (Kuemper, Hill). even w/ a HOF goalie, the Jets haven't accomplished much of note in the POs. so what's really the right approach :dunno:
1. Never, ever use playoff results to measure team success.
2. Get a coach that plays a defensive system that adequately supports the goaltender.
3. Adjust whatever pieces you need to maintain said system / don't mess with a working system.
4. If available, look for goalies with a positive GSAx ratio over a longer time period.

That gets you most of the way to the promised land. That's pretty much what Boston has done - the team has been rock solid for a decade, and they've hardly ever suffered from bad goaltending. The transition from Rask to Ullmark (to Swayman) has been managed nicely, in part due to a team that has made their goalies' jobs much easier.

Another example would be the Isles in 2017-19: run-and-gun style of hockey got them some of the worst goaltending in the cap era in 2017-18, but when Trotz stepped in the year after, the team became one of the better defensive performers in the league. Thomas Greiss literally went from being a total non-option in net in 2017-18 to a top 5 goalie in the league in 18-19. That wasn't an accident.

Of course, not every goalie is going to thrive even in the best of systems. But if you increase the likelihood of that happening, you'll spend less time looking for new solutions. That's precisely what Edmonton and Toronto are struggling with now: their teams don't help their goalies, so bad goaltending ends up hurting them noticeably.

We are in a fortunate position with Hellebuyck. His career low has been 0.153 goals allowed above expectation per 60 minutes, which is just stupidly good for a goalie playing in his ninth season. If your low point was your first year as a starter behind an atrocious defensive team, and it still wasn't even unplayable by any means, you're a true star.

Out of current star goalies, only Sorokin and Shesterkin have been better (both with four seasons played), and looking at retired goalies, the two most relevant comparables are probably the veeeery mediocre Tuukka Rask and Henrik Lundqvist. Helle could well be the best of his generation.
 
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