Around the NHL 10 - 2022/23

[Gm0ney]

I see the organization as having a relatively set path for the development of their defensman prospects and have only deviated from it for their 2 highest drafted prospects in Trouba and Morrissey. Gradually move up the organization and then NHL opportunity is given in year 3 of the ELC and if their is no room on the NHL roster an increased role on the Moose. The argument is whether Heinola is an elite enough of a prospect to be put in the Trouba Morrissey grouping.

I guess you can't argue with the system that's produced a grand total of Ben Chiarot and Tucker Poolman over the last 12 seasons.

 

[surixon]

I see the organization as having a relatively set path for the development of their defensman prospects and have only deviated from it for their 2 highest drafted prospects in Trouba and Morrissey. Gradually move up the organization and then NHL opportunity is given in year 3 of the ELC and if their is no room on the NHL roster an increased role on the Moose. The argument is whether Heinola is an elite enough of a prospect to be put in the Trouba Morrissey grouping.

I don't see that plan though as it has only been done with Stanley so not what I'd call a pattern.

Trouba walked in as a 19 year old after a year in college.

Morrissey shocked the team and took advantage of Trouba'd hold out to win a spot in his D plus 4.

Tucker Poolman made it full time his draft plus 7
Stanley full time his draft plus 5 season
Samberg hasn't made it full time yet and he's in his draft plus 6 season.

There really is no pattern here.

 

[KingBogo]

I guess you can't argue with the system that's produced a grand total of Ben Chiarot and Tucker Poolman over the last 12 seasons.

Is that more of a matter of not drafting defenseman high in the first round or their development plan? They had no problem creating space for the elite D prospects in Trouba and Morrissey.

I don't see that plan though as it has only been done with Stanley so not what I'd call a pattern.

Trouba walked in as a 19 year old after a year in college.

Morrissey shocked the team and took advantage of Trouba'd hold out to win a spot in his D plus 4.

Tucker Poolman made it full time his draft plus 7
Stanley full time his draft plus 5 season
Samberg hasn't made it full time yet and he's in his draft plus 6 season.

There really is no pattern here.

It was done with Chariot, Poolman, Stanley, Kovy Samberg, Chislholm, Gawke, and we can see it play out with their other D prospects. The organization brings along their D prospects and gives them gradually bigger roles until the end of team control, and then holds onto who they believe are the ones who they want to keep in the NHL. There were 2 exceptions far an away our 2 best 2 prospects Trouba and Morrissey.

 

[DRW204]

Kinda surprised to see so many posts about Heinola's falling stock here -- we're back home in the UK now, and while we were Moose ST holders for years, the AHL online product isn't worth the spend or frustration to make work over here, so I've gone from watching most Moose games to the odd highlight.

I have watches Chisholm for years and have always liked his game -- he's a terrific skater and smart player, all-rounder who does most things well but lacks the vision and passing / O-zone brilliance of Heinola, IMO. That may or may not make him a safer bet but I wouldn't say they have the same ceiling.

In terms of "pouting" -- not sure how plausible that is, given Ville's past work ethic, but I suppose this TC might have been the proverbial straw? If so, it's not good news, and maybe he's looking for a trade to greener pastures.

But the Jets are not blameless in this LHD backlog. Going into TC there was one D spot for 3 candidates, and while there was much backslapping chatter about how great it was to see competition for it that chatter glosses over the truth that any or all of those 3 could have played like Lidstrom and still not dislodged any of Pionk, Dillon or Schmidt whose spots are assured because of vetness and salary.

Chevy could have sorted this backlog out years ago, during the Covid stoppage and then the CDN Division seasons, choosing to play Stan, Samberg and/ or Heinola over the parade of plugs he brought in who maybe, barely scraped replacement value. Why was Beaulieu playing top minutes over pressboxed prospect talent? Was a beaten-up Sbisa or Bitetto really better than rookie Stan or Sberg? When were all of these vaunted prospects going to get proper playing time to ease them into their careers, just as the team needed some solid value from ELC D?

Three young(er) players, one spot. Given the term, salary and difficulty of trading a Pionk, Schmidt or even Dillon (though he's easier), there may still be one spot next season also. And now it's four or five young players, as waiver eligibility comes into play for Chisholm.

So hopefully no one is pouting down on the farm, but they may well be asking themselves what they see ahead of them, and how soon they can get out to chase an opportunity elsewhere. I think great development also includes having plausible paths forwards for prospects, so they have something to work towards. And it seems like the Jets have dropped the ball here, at least where LHDs are concerned.

I'm sure Kovacevic is an interesting path for them to see unfolding.

Also, I'm getting tired of the Niku / Petan BS. Not every prospect is an entitled loafer whose fate is solely in their own hands. Shit happens. Management isn't flawless. Coaches aren't as smart or unbiased as they think they are. Injuries linger. Development isn't linear. Players get blocked for all sorts of reasons -- it isn't automatically down to character flaws or not wanting it enough, etc.

nice post

heinola probably had 0 chance of making it this TC. this team cited they wanted another pk so until something happens to one of the pp dmen - pionk, schmidt or morrissey he likely will not be on the team. those players all have big cap hits for multiple years still they were not going anywhere. it's kind of like perfetti last year - the plan was always for him in the ahl.

like you mentioned - sbisa/bitetto/dhalstrom/forbort/beaulieu/and poolman ahead of samberg/heinola or stanley. if you recall it took sbisa being waived, and beaulieu having surgery for stanley to get his shot. similar thing happened to a couple of our fwds getting their chances higher up on the depth chart. playing these known bad dmen over stanley (or heinola, or samberg) who evidently have higher untapped potential. coaches and our GM will always prefer vets though so it is what it is.

i dont understand really the niku vs heinola comparison.... niku got a bunch of pts on the PP in the AHL, and had an NHL depth chart ahead of him composed of Trouba/Buff/Myers on RHD, and Morrissey/Enstrom/Chiarot/Kulikov as LHD. perhaps we were a bit fooled looking at his production in the AHL, and the depth chart in front of him was v good. those dmen were far better than him during that time period, and then add in the fact this team was poised to be a legit PO contender. Compare that with what Heinola (or stanley, or samberg) had up until 21-22. even now it's nowhere as good (mentioned players above). not to mention by all account heinola has been a stronger player in the AHL, along w/ a highly touted prospect in his draft.

 

[surixon]

Is that more of a matter of not drafting defenseman high in the first round or their development plan? They had no problem creating space for the elite D prospects in Trouba and Morrissey.


It was done with Chariot, Poolman, Stanley, Kovy Samberg, Chislholm, Gawke, and we can see it play out with their other D prospects.

I mean none of Chisholm, Gawanke have really gotten an opportunity and Gawanke hit waivers this year and Chisholm next year. Essentially they are just leaving the vast majority of their d prospects in the AHL through the entirety of their ELC and then risking waivers with them. Kovacevik got snatched while Gawanke passed through. I don't see any plan to get those two integrated into the lineup unlike say equivalent forward prospects like Gus and Barron who had slots open for them in camp this year.

There is a pretty big difference in how both positions are treated. Stanley had to wait for an injury to a plug to get in and Snerg had to wait for an injury to Tree to get in. No spot was created for them to snatch.

 

[Weezeric]

I mean none of Chisholm, Gawanke have really gotten an opportunity and Gawanke hit waivers this year and Chisholm next year. Essentially they are just leaving the vast majority of their d prospects in the AHL through the entirety of their ELC and then risking waivers with them. Kovacevik got snatched while Gawanke passed through. I don't see any plan to get those two integrated into the lineup unlike say equivalent forward prospects like Gus and Barron who had slots open for them in camp this year.

There is a pretty big difference in how both positions are treated. Stanley had to wait for an injury to a plug to get in and Snerg had to wait for an injury to Tree to get in. No spot was created for them to snatch.

Creating a spot for unproven prospects often results in disaster. Just look at Vesalainen last year

 

[surixon]

Creating a spot for unproven prospects often results in disaster. Just look at Vesalainen last year

I see you Ves and raise you Copp, Armia, Gus, Barron, Tanev, Lowry.

Yeah it can backfire occasionally but the vast majority of the time the Jets have gotten it right with their forward prospects.

 

[KingBogo]

I mean none of Chisholm, Gawanke have really gotten an opportunity and Gawanke hit waivers this year and Chisholm next year. Essentially they are just leaving the vast majority of their d prospects in the AHL through the entirety of their ELC and then risking waivers with them. Kovacevik got snatched while Gawanke passed through. I don't see any plan to get those two integrated into the lineup unlike say equivalent forward prospects like Gus and Barron who had slots open for them in camp this year.

There is a pretty big difference in how both positions are treated. Stanley had to wait for an injury to a plug to get in and Snerg had to wait for an injury to Tree to get in. No spot was created for them to snatch.

I don't know if you are missing my point but all of Kovy, Chisholm and Gawanke either got bigger roles or now are in bigger roles in the final year of team control. Samberg is now also now in a bigger role. Similar process for Chariot, Poolman, Stanley etc. All the evidence appears to show that the organization wants to bring along defenseman slowly and not rush them to the NHL. You are right forwards are moved up quicker, but most of our top prospects have been forwards. To add another point to this the organization seems to also want to maximize years outside of the organization for D-Man before ELC's start to give them a longer runway.

 

[Gm0ney]

Creating a spot for unproven prospects often results in disaster. Just look at Vesalainen last year

The risk is much lower when the spot is created by sitting a plug like half the Jets D over the last 3 seasons. Sbisa, Beaulieu, Bitetto, Dahlstrom, Benn...I mean, wtf were they doing?

 

[DRW204]

Creating a spot for unproven prospects often results in disaster. Just look at Vesalainen last year

isn't there clear arguments to be made either way for this?

i think there's to many variables just to conclude it often is a disaster imo. coaching , linemate mix, play-style, role, TOI etc.

is dallas w/ robertson+hintz+oettinger a disaster? devils w/ bratt and mercer (leaving out hughes since 1OA)? MIN with kaprizov or boldy? lots of examples.

The risk is much lower when the spot is created by sitting a plug like half the Jets D over the last 3 seasons. Sbisa, Beaulieu, Bitetto, Dahlstrom, Benn...I mean, wtf were they doing?

agreed. this is the stark difference in the handling of niku vs stanley/samberg/heinola. niku had to compete with buff/trouba/morrissey/enstrom/chirot/kulikov/myers... he's not better than any.

 

[KingBogo]

The risk is much lower when the spot is created by sitting a plug like half the Jets D over the last 3 seasons. Sbisa, Beaulieu, Bitetto, Dahlstrom, Benn...I mean, wtf were they doing?

But 3 years ago what D prospects did we have to plug in?

 

[surixon]

I don't know if you are missing my point but all of Kovy, Chisholm and Gawanke either got bigger roles or now are in bigger roles in the final year of team control. Samberg is now also now in a bigger role. Similar process for Chariot, Poolman, Stanley etc. All the evidence appears to show that the organization wants to bring along defenseman slowly and not rush them to the NHL. You are right forwards are moved up quicker, but most of our top prospects have been forwards. To add another point to this the organization seems to also want to maximize years outside of the organization for D-Man before ELC's start to give them a longer runway.

I got your point that they like to really slow play things but can you honestly say that it's working? Even if they want to slow play there needs to be an advancement strategy for these prospects at the end of the slow play and imo there isn't one outside of wait for multiple injuries to get a chance.

 

[Jet]

I see you Ves and raise you Copp, Armia, Gus, Barron, Tanev, Lowry.

Yeah it can backfire occasionally but the vast majority of the time the Jets have gotten it right with their forward prospects.

I think theres a lower tolerance for error/ performance for D than F (and G for D) based on the impact of the position relative to success.

 

[surixon]

I think theres a higher tolerance for error/ performance for D than F (and G for D) based on the impact of the position relative to success.

That is probably spot on but imo incredibly short sighted. The orgs that don't adhere to that tend to reap the benefits of having young and modern d cores.

 

[KingBogo]

I got your point that they like to really slow play things but can you honestly say that it's working? Even if they want to slow play there needs to be an advancement strategy for these prospects at the end of the slow play and imo there isn't one outside of wait for multiple injuries to get a chance.

I think if you want the Jets to have the D core you want they need to start prioritizing it with early draft picks. For the most part other than for Trouba and to a lesser extent Morrissey we haven't had the elite level D prospects that can easily transition to the NHL in both ends of the ice.

 

[snowkiddin]

I don't know if you are missing my point but all of Kovy, Chisholm and Gawanke either got bigger roles or now are in bigger roles in the final year of team control. Samberg is now also now in a bigger role. Similar process for Chariot, Poolman, Stanley etc. All the evidence appears to show that the organization wants to bring along defenseman slowly and not rush them to the NHL. You are right forwards are moved up quicker, but most of our top prospects have been forwards. To add another point to this the organization seems to also want to maximize years outside of the organization for D-Man before ELC's start to give them a longer runway.

I haven’t been laser-focused on the Moose, but have Gawanke and Chisholm even gotten a bigger role with the Moose? Seems they’re playing the same role as last year, aren’t they? They’re paired together, handling top matchups, PP, PK. I guess you could say Chisholm passed Heinola as the de facto #1D on the Moose.

 

[surixon]

I think if you want the Jets to have the D core you want they need to start prioritizing it with early draft picks. For the most part other than for Trouba and to a lesser extent Morrissey we haven't had the elite level D prospects that can easily transition to the NHL in both ends of the ice.

I think if you want the Jets to have the D core you want they need to start prioritizing it with early draft picks. For the most part other than for Trouba and to a lesser extent Morrissey we haven't had the elite level D prospects that can easily transition to the NHL in both ends of the ice.

That is some of it foresure but we aren't just talking about the elite forwards being graduated here. No reason a better plan couldn't have been put in place with regards to our depth d spots then what we've seen.

With regards to Heinola, this is a kid who has similar draft pedigree as JoMo and also had the luxury of having his development accelerated by playing 3 AHL seasons to date. We aren't taking about a kid coming out of junior with one season of pro experience we are talking about a kid with a good 5 with three strong ones on NA ice. I am not really sure why they would feel the need to further slow play him based on his development.

 

[Jet]

That is probably spot on but imo incredibly short sighted. The orgs that don't adhere to that tend to reap the benefits of having young and modern d cores.

I don't know about that. I think it's pretty complex. I think you have to assess if your D prospects are able to perform and continue to develop in the NHL or if it will be damaging to them. Also, where the team is in its competitiveness cycle has to be considered.

Defensemen have a larger impact on success than forwards, and there are less places to hide. Errors by D more often end up in your net than errors by forwards.

I think you can still ruin a forward prospect by promoting them too soon, but it's for different reasons. You may force them into a role they aren't suited for, but it's easier to shelter them.

Defensmen are going to be exposed to the very best the league has to offer. Even if you D match there are plenty of scenarios where they will end up on the ice against the McDs and Landys of the world. Additionally, there are only 5 other players at that position so they will naturally be on the ice more.

 

[surixon]

I don't know about that. I think it's pretty complex. I think you have to assess if your D prospects are able to perform and continue to develop in the NHL or if it will be damaging to them. Also, where the team is in its competitiveness cycle has to be considered.

Defensemen have a larger impact on success than forwards, and there are less places to hide. Errors by D more often end up in your net than errors by forwards.

I think you can still ruin a forward prospect by promoting them too soon, but it's for different reasons. You may force them into a role they aren't suited for, but it's easier to shelter them.

Defensmen are going to be exposed to the very best the league has to offer. Even if you D match there are plenty of scenarios where they will end up on the ice against the McDs and Landys of the world. Additionally, there are only 5 other players at that position so they will naturally be on the ice more.

While I agree with a lot of this some organizations are more willing to give their prospect dmen an opportunity then others. At some point you have to A) take the water wings off and see if they can swim, or B) Make a call that the player isn't going to get where you want and move them while they still have some value. This perpetual wait until the last possible moment before deciding isn't working imo.

I guess it would also help if I had the same confidence in the org assessing defensive talent as I do with their ability to assess forward talent. Looking back throughout the years the org has gotten it wrong on dmen so many times that I don't have much faith in them correctly assessing what we have in our system currently.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Well said. As I've mentioned before I think the org does a good job at creating opportunities for their forward prospects.

They seem to not do a very good job creating paths for their d prospects to get to the NHL.

For quite some time they didn't create opportunities for F either, especially C's. Roslovic is a poster boy for that. There are a few opportunities opening up now due to the loss of Copp and Stastny but C's are still blocked from developing by the checking 3rd line. Harkins is another example of a player being blocked by being required to first become a checker.

 

[surixon]

For quite some time they didn't create opportunities for F either, especially C's. Roslovic is a poster boy for that. There are a few opportunities opening up now due to the loss of Copp and Stastny but C's are still blocked from developing by the checking 3rd line. Harkins is another example of a player being blocked by being required to first become a checker.

For quite some time they didn't create opportunities for F either, especially C's. Roslovic is a poster boy for that. There are a few opportunities opening up now due to the loss of Copp and Stastny but C's are still blocked from developing by the checking 3rd line. Harkins is another example of a player being blocked by being required to first become a checker.

Fair point on Roslovic but he hasn't exactly turned into a better center then what we had at the time in the top 6. Granted as a 3C he likely would have performed well in a more modern setup.

 

[Jet]

While I agree with a lot of this some organizations are more willing to give their prospect dmen an opportunity then others. At some point you have to A) take the water wings off and see if they can swim, or B) Make a call that the player isn't going to get where you want and move them while they still have some value. This perpetual wait until the last possible moment before deciding isn't working imo.

I guess it would also help if I had the same confidence in the org assessing defensive talent as I do with their ability to assess forward talent. Looking back throughout the years the org has gotten it wrong on dmen so many times that I don't have much faith in them correctly assessing what we have in our system currently.

I feel like the main issue is the Jets are drafting b+ prospects at d at the highest, with some b's and c's.

These other organizations are drafting blue chip or a level prospects which tend to be more equipped to play at the nhl level.

 

[Jet]

Fair point on Roslovic but he hasn't exactly turned into a better center then what we had at the time in the top 6. Granted as a 3C he likely would have performed well in a more modern setup.

Yeah I cant point at any f prospect really that we held back that ended up being better than what we had.

Roslo had lots of chances to move up the lineup and didn't perform, same can be said of Harkins, and Copp was the one guy I think who got much more to 6 playing time than his abilities warranted.

We let him go and now Detroit is overpaying for him

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Fair point on Roslovic but he hasn't exactly turned into a better center then what we had at the time in the top 6. Granted as a 3C he likely would have performed well in a more modern setup.

He could have centred a scoring 3rd line. Maybe - but there was no path for him here. I don't see any difference in the paths for Dmen and F other than there being twice as many F positions on the team.

Since winning that 2OA lottery pick in '16 it has appeared to me like Chevy took that as the end of his team/roster building. From there it was just up to the coach and Chevy's remaining job was to fill in a few spots at the bottom of the depth chart. Call it maintenance. Just seems like the mindset he fell into. Might have snapped out of it now, we'll see.

 

[JetsFan815]

But 3 years ago what D prospects did we have to plug in?

Literally anyone since all the guys in the quoted post are not even in the league.