Around the NHL 10 - 2022/23

[DRW204]

Panthers #3 in the league in Corsi and #2 in xGoals. PP generating a lot but sh% is bad. PK 3'rd best in the league in xGA/60. Seems like some poor shooting luck. Not worried about the Panthers at all, they should be contenders in the East as long as the goaltending doesn't shit the bed.

If these number hold up, it should be an eye opener for Jets fans. Maurice suddenly went from one of the worst teams in the league in chances against on the PK to one of the best, literally the opposite for Bowness and to a lesser extent Arniel. If the numbers stay in the same range, it would really point the finger exclusively at the GM and the roster constructed and not at the coaches past or present.

yeah i expect their PP to trend up eventually.

they average 8mins/gp on the PP (!) #1 in the league....they're shooting 5% on the PP. for reference, at 5v5 they're shooting 8.7%. i think with a team w/ barkov, bennett, tkachuk, carter v etc that PP finishing will start improving. but no doubt it's been abysmal so far.

8 mins on PP per game play, 7 mins on the pk per game (yikes).... no wonder why their TOI can be skewed to top-6/9ers

Boston is just nuts. Even with the amazing 2015 f*** up, they still pulled 3 players out of that draft. The major outlier here is Arizona, which has a well above average hit rate, but still stinks. That's straight up development failure.

your boston 2015 reference is why i personally dislike when # of players that hit X gp is the performance indicator.

2015:

boston: 3 players that hit 100 GP.
minnesota: 3 players that hit 100 gp
calgary: 3 players that hit 100 gp

they'd all rate as the same success then with 3.

hence why i believe a production stat should also be used for some sort of measure of player quality/production. and/or picks relative to draft position, # of picks in a given draft etc. just to contextulize it further

for instance looking at the players w/ 100 gp:

boston: debrusk, lauzon, carlo
minnesota: kaprizov, greenway, eriksson-ek
calgary: mangiapane, r.andersson, kylington

MIN>CGY>BOS... think there's no debate there

then consider boston had 7 top-100 selections (10 overall), Minnesota had 2 top-100 selections (7 overall), and Calgary had 2 top-100 selections (5 overall).

 

[KingBogo]

Its early but if that's the case it's very troublesome. People can say you can't blame him, no opportunity, yadda yadda, but the fact of the matter is he's not being held back in any sense.

The counter argument is that when we had plugs playing or when we were out of the race that was an opportunity to get him some nhl playing time but you really have to be sure that doing something like that will be beneficial to the player.

If the org thinks that a player is not ready and putting them in that position could damage his progress, then they shouldn't do that.

Ville needs to take it upon himself to excel at the AHL level because that is going to show the org that he's ready. He has to work on the things that are preventing him from moving up, which in my mind is standing up to pressure in his own zone and making appropriate decisions with the puck. Obviously his offensive game and instincts are there.

It might just be that Ville is a one dimensional player who can push the offensive play and has good exit passes when unpressured. That's fine, I think there's still a role for him in the NHL in that case as we see a lot of smaller, offensive d in the league today that aren't great under heavy forecheck. Hell, there's big guys like that too (hello Tyler Myers)

I'm guessing the Jets see the potential to develop the other side of Heinolas game and mage him a more well rounded guy which he will need if he's going to be a top 4 D which is why the Jets drafted him.

It's much harder to get a player to change their game after they've been promoted full time for a variety of reasons. You see it all the time with defensemen. Bogosian, Myers are just a couple examples.

The bolded is the big question for me. IMO rushing a player before he is ready provides a much greater risk to development, then keeping them at a lower level longer than necessary. If a player becomes overwhelmed in a role they start to lose confidence. Once a player starts losing confidence they start entrenching bad habits and they may never become the player they could have. "Over Ripening" certainly could lead to some frustration, but you'd hope that if a player is going to maximize potential they will just keep working hard, incorporate what is asked of them and trust their opportunity will come.

 

[surixon]

When their goaltending remembers they're able to stop the puck they've looked very dangerous.

I really like how they have built that team and how they play. There is a tonne of speed and skill on the ice and they play a very fast and direct game.

 

[Jet]

The bolded is the big question for me. IMO rushing a player before he is ready provides a much greater risk to development, then keeping them at a lower level longer than necessary. If a player becomes overwhelmed in a role they start to lose confidence. Once a player starts losing confidence they start entrenching bad habits and they may never become the player they could have. "Over Ripening" certainly could lead to some frustration, but you'd hope that if a player is going to maximize potential they will just keep working hard, incorporate what is asked of them and trust their opportunity will come.

I would go a bit further to say that if Heinola isn't leading the Moose and showing that he is above that level, he's certainly not convincing the management that he's ready for the NHL.

From what I understand, Gawanke seems to be the guy who is really leading the Moose defense (admittedly I don't follow as closely as I should). Maybe his game is just more mature and he deserves a look?

 

[surixon]

Its early but if that's the case it's very troublesome. People can say you can't blame him, no opportunity, yadda yadda, but the fact of the matter is he's not being held back in any sense.

The counter argument is that when we had plugs playing or when we were out of the race that was an opportunity to get him some nhl playing time but you really have to be sure that doing something like that will be beneficial to the player.

If the org thinks that a player is not ready and putting them in that position could damage his progress, then they shouldn't do that.

Ville needs to take it upon himself to excel at the AHL level because that is going to show the org that he's ready. He has to work on the things that are preventing him from moving up, which in my mind is standing up to pressure in his own zone and making appropriate decisions with the puck. Obviously his offensive game and instincts are there.

It might just be that Ville is a one dimensional player who can push the offensive play and has good exit passes when unpressured. That's fine, I think there's still a role for him in the NHL in that case as we see a lot of smaller, offensive d in the league today that aren't great under heavy forecheck. Hell, there's big guys like that too (hello Tyler Myers)

I'm guessing the Jets see the potential to develop the other side of Heinolas game and mage him a more well rounded guy which he will need if he's going to be a top 4 D which is why the Jets drafted him.

It's much harder to get a player to change their game after they've been promoted full time for a variety of reasons. You see it all the time with defensemen. Bogosian, Myers are just a couple examples.

This is a good post. Yes there are definite things Ville needs to work on but imo some of the things that he needs to improve on are things that you can't really judge at the AHL level. Making quicker decisions in his end is harder to gage in a league where he has time to make the plays he wants.

I also think there is a real human element here. Take yourself and other people in other jobs. If you fail to get that promotion you want. After a couple of failed attempts it's easy to become discouraged and lose engagement. That is where I feel Ville is right now with his play and if you read my Moose posts you'd see that I have Chisholm as clearly ahead on the call up priority list. It would appear the org does as well given Declan is being used in all the top dmen roles down there.

In the end Ville is going to have to get over his frustrations (if it's that) and up his game significantly if he wants a call up. I'm juat saying I can relate and if he's discouraged it's understandable.

I would go a bit further to say that if Heinola isn't leading the Moose and showing that he is above that level, he's certainly not convincing the management that he's ready for the NHL.

From what I understand, Gawanke seems to be the guy who is really leading the Moose defense (admittedly I don't follow as closely as I should). Maybe his game is just more mature and he deserves a look?

Gawanke has been good but it is Chisholm who imo is the clear best all around dmen on the Moose so far.

 

[WolfgangPuck]

PoMo is a meh coach. Lasted 2-3 year past his expiration date with the Jets cause Chevy doesn’t look at the shelf life dates
Almost all the new coaches hired in the off-season is getting their teams off to good starts. Notable Richardson with the Hawks. Montgomery with the Bruins and Cassidy with the Golden Knights. Those teams are doing better than expected. If Trotz was not stringing us along I think one of them would have been better hire than Arniel-Bowness.
Still, the Jets are doing better with new coaching change but how long is it going to last before the players tune out ?

 

[KingBogo]

This is a good post. Yes there are definite things Ville needs to work on but imo some of the things that he needs to improve on are things that you can't really judge at the AHL level. Making quicker decisions in his end is harder to gage in a league where he has time to make the plays he wants.

I also think there is a real human element here. Take yourself and other people in other jobs. If you fail to get that promotion you want. After a couple of failed attempts it's easy to become discouraged and lose engagement. That is where I feel Ville is right now with his play and if you read my Moose posts you'd see that I have Chisholm as clearly ahead on the call up priority list. It would appear the org does as well given Declan is being used in all the top dmen roles down there.

In the end Ville is going to have to get over his frustrations (if it's that) and up his game significantly if he wants a call up. I'm juat saying I can relate and if he's discouraged it's understandable.



Gawanke has been good but it is Chisholm who imo is the clear best all around dmen on the Moose so far.

Heinola may be disappointed, but promotions aren't a guarantee especially when those who you want to be promoted past are out working and out performing you. In the workplace promotions go to those demonstrating the best results, not necessarily to those who joined the organization with the highest pedigree. At this point if Heinola is actually underperforming because he is disappointed, I'd soon start questioning does he have the mental part of the game to be a successful top 4 defenseman. In truth he should be making every effort to prove to the organization he belongs in the NHL.

 

[surixon]

Heinola may be disappointed, but promotions aren't a guarantee especially when those who you want to be promoted past are out working and out performing you. In the workplace promotions go to those demonstrating the best results, not necessarily to those who joined the organization with the highest pedigree. At this point if Heinola is actually underperforming because he is disappointed, I'd soon start questioning does he have the mental part of the game to be a successful top 4 defenseman. In truth he should be making every effort to prove to the organization he belongs in the NHL.

Well one would hope promotions are based on who is most deserving but let's be honest a lot of times they aren't. You can't tell me Stanley's promotion was actually earned. They ran out of time on him and being a first round pick was given a push after two very mediocre AHL seasons. But I agree that Ville needs to bust his ass to make the org take notice.

 

[KingBogo]

Well one would hope promotions are based on who is most deserving but let's be honest a lot of times they aren't. You can't tell me Stanley's promotion was actually earned. They ran out of time on him and being a first round pick was given a push after two very mediocre AHL seasons. But I agree that Ville needs to bust his ass to make the org take notice.

My thoughts on Ville are if he gets his promotion because he is pouting and the organization wants to keep him happy, that in a couple years one of the main topics around here is we have to move the "soft" under performing player before he loses all value. I'm a bit old school, but the competition in professional sports is so relentless it requires even the most talented players to be able to handle the mental pressures of the game.

 

[Jet]

This is a good post. Yes there are definite things Ville needs to work on but imo some of the things that he needs to improve on are things that you can't really judge at the AHL level. Making quicker decisions in his end is harder to gage in a league where he has time to make the plays he wants.

I also think there is a real human element here. Take yourself and other people in other jobs. If you fail to get that promotion you want. After a couple of failed attempts it's easy to become discouraged and lose engagement. That is where I feel Ville is right now with his play and if you read my Moose posts you'd see that I have Chisholm as clearly ahead on the call up priority list. It would appear the org does as well given Declan is being used in all the top dmen roles down there.

In the end Ville is going to have to get over his frustrations (if it's that) and up his game significantly if he wants a call up. I'm juat saying I can relate and if he's discouraged it's understandable.



Gawanke has been good but it is Chisholm who imo is the clear best all around dmen on the Moose so far.

I agree with all of this. I think that's why sometimes you see a prospect change orgs and then flourish. It becomes a chicken and egg thing where the org says 'show us you can do it' and the player is demotivated and underperforms, which holds them back further.

I hope that's not the case with Ville, but I'm open to perhaps trading him for a similar prospect that might suit our needs better.

Also, thanks for the correction on Gawanke/ Chisolm. Are they a pair?

My thoughts on Ville are if he gets his promotion because he is pouting and the organization wants to keep him happy, that in a couple years one of the main topics around here is we have to move the "soft" under performing player before he loses all value. I'm a bit old school, but the competition in professional sports is so relentless it requires even the most talented players to be able to handle the mental pressures of the game.

That is the one thing I think that is often missing from the competition. In order to make it to the best league in the world, and outperform your peers there is a relentless dedication to performance. You look at a guy like Mark Schiefele who's had some subpar years lately and you can see that you can't ever let your foot off the gas, even when you've 'made it'.

I don't think people have any earthly idea just how difficult it is to be an NHL player.

 

[surixon]

I agree with all of this. I think that's why sometimes you see a prospect change orgs and then flourish. It becomes a chicken and egg thing where the org says 'show us you can do it' and the player is demotivated and underperforms, which holds them back further.

I hope that's not the case with Ville, but I'm open to perhaps trading him for a similar prospect that might suit our needs better.

Also, thanks for the correction on Gawanke/ Chisolm. Are they a pair?


That is the one thing I think that is often missing from the competition. In order to make it to the best league in the world, and outperform your peers there is a relentless dedication to performance. You look at a guy like Mark Schiefele who's had some subpar years lately and you can see that you can't ever let your foot off the gas, even when you've 'made it'.

I don't think people have any earthly idea just how difficult it is to be an NHL player.

Yes Chisholm and Gawanke are the top pairing on the Moose and often line up behind the Moose top line (Harkins line) they also get the top PP assignment (Not Ville).

 

[DRW204]

When their goaltending remembers they're able to stop the puck they've looked very dangerous.

the john marino trade was a coup for them. last 2 years getting him and trade+sign for siegenthaler seems to have helped settle things down defensively

 

[ERYX]

We knew that defense was going to be an issue with them, and it's even more apparent now that Mackenzie Weegar is no longer there.

Also Ekblad has been injured.

 

[surixon]

My thoughts on Ville are if he gets his promotion because he is pouting and the organization wants to keep him happy, that in a couple years one of the main topics around here is we have to move the "soft" under performing player before he loses all value. I'm a bit old school, but the competition in professional sports is so relentless it requires even the most talented players to be able to handle the mental pressures of the game.

I don't believe he should get one until his game picks up. If they were to play him it should have happened after a good camp where imo he outplayed his competetion. If we are goj g based on now, Chisholm is the player who deserves it based on how his year on the Moose ended last year, his promising two NHL games last year, good camp, and great start to the year down there.

Ville isn't the first young player to slump for a bit after being demoted and he won't be the last. He is going to have to work for his next opportunity. That or the org needs to make a decision on him and move him out if he's fallen further down the depth chart.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

True, but that's where the development part of the equation comes in. How many of those teams with high draft hits are currently still bad? How many are now good? That would weigh into how effectively the team was able to develop their prospects.

You still can't attribute that to development. Ari as an example, has drafted poorly. They get a fair number of players meeting the 100 game standard but not performing to the level you would hope for and expect from where they were drafted. Take a look at those players coming into the draft and you can see why. They were drafted above where they should have been.

 

[KingBogo]

I don't believe he should get one until his game picks up. If they were to play him it should have happened after a good camp where imo he outplayed his competetion. If we are goj g based on now, Chisholm is the player who deserves it based on how his year on the Moose ended last year, his promising two NHL games last year, good camp, and great start to the year down there.

Ville isn't the first young player to slump for a bit after being demoted and he won't be the last. He is going to have to work for his next opportunity. That or the org needs to make a decision on him and move him out if he's fallen further down the depth chart.

The future of Chisholm is an interesting question. He is in the final year of his ELC and the organization is running out of track to make a decision on him. Likely he has earned the 1st call up opportunity and the organization seems to be very happy with his development. I'm not sure it is probable, but it is certainly possible that he becomes the best player out of all our current D prospects.

 

[Gm0ney]

You think Kovacevic was realistically going to take over from Neal Pionk?

It seems like unless a prospect has a lineup spot specifically planned out for them well in advance, their only chance to make the lineup is via injury. If they set the world on fire during the injury replacement they may be considered for a permanent promotion.

 

[surixon]

The future of Chisholm is an interesting question. He is in the final year of his ELC and the organization is running out of track to make a decision on him. Likely he has earned the 1st call up opportunity and the organization seems to be very happy with his development. I'm not sure it is probable, but it is certainly possible that he becomes the best player out of all our current D prospects.

Imo his game is the most well rounded of our d prospects. He also has NHL skating and size.

The other thing I really like about him is he plays with confidence and knows who he is. I think that will help him translate better then say Ville who tends to start timidly and needs to time to get comfortable.

 

[surixon]

Hmmm ... Maurice's Panthers special teams looks familiar ... the 30th PP at 9.1 % and their PK is 27th at 71.8.
Maurice's top 2 players played 23+ mins against the Coyotes and lost ... ouch.
Maurice also has a very good Panthers team playing around the .500 mark too with a 5-4-1 record out of a playoff spot with more goals scored against than for.

It looks like he's back to his prior to Jet coaching days of getting crappy goaltending. Both their goalies are under .900 save percentage. That is enough to sewer any team.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The bolded is the big question for me. IMO rushing a player before he is ready provides a much greater risk to development, then keeping them at a lower level longer than necessary. If a player becomes overwhelmed in a role they start to lose confidence. Once a player starts losing confidence they start entrenching bad habits and they may never become the player they could have. "Over Ripening" certainly could lead to some frustration, but you'd hope that if a player is going to maximize potential they will just keep working hard, incorporate what is asked of them and trust their opportunity will come.

This bolded is another big question. You are tending to ignore human nature a bit, I think. People don't necessarily react that well. They feel more than just a little frustration. There is resentment, discouragement, and self doubt creeps in there too.

I think it comes down to how much they are either rushed or over-ripened. A little of either doesn't hurt, or shouldn't. A lot of either might hurt a lot. And then of course, it varies with each individual.

 

[JetsFan815]

Tonight's Leafs game is a must watch... there is going to be a shitstorm of epic proportions if they lose this one.

 

[CorgisPer60]

Gawanke has been good but it is Chisholm who imo is the clear best all around dmen on the Moose so far.

Agreed. I've been relatively high on him since he was drafted, so seeing him be the de facto top pairing defenseman on a relatively dominant Moose team is quite encouraging.

You still can't attribute that to development. Ari as an example, has drafted poorly. They get a fair number of players meeting the 100 game standard but not performing to the level you would hope for and expect from where they were drafted. Take a look at those players coming into the draft and you can see why. They were drafted above where they should have been.

Yes, which is why my exercise is an imperfect science at best. You'd have to dig deeper into things like weighted draft position, picks made in the same ballpark as the underperforming ones, etc. to figure out just how bad the f***up is. As it is, I don't think we need a full forensic analysis on why certain teams are still bad. Scouting, drafting, and development are all important. You have to be invested from the root of the tree to the leaves and branches at the top of the tree.

 

[tbcwpg]

It seems like unless a prospect has a lineup spot specifically planned out for them well in advance, their only chance to make the lineup is via injury. If they set the world on fire during the injury replacement they may be considered for a permanent promotion.

That's pretty standard across the league, especially when the spot they're presumably taking is from a 27 year old defenceman with almost $6m in salary due over 3 more years. I wouldn't say Pionk has played himself OUT of the lineup yet, and nothing Kovacevic has done in Montreal makes me think he'd be a clearly better option.

 

[LowLefty]

Imo his game is the most well rounded of our d prospects. He also has NHL skating and size.

The other thing I really like about him is he plays with confidence and knows who he is. I think that will help him translate better then say Ville who tends to start timidly and needs to time to get comfortable.

That's the key IMO and might address an earlier point when we state that some players might be moved up over others when they haven't "earned" it -
Maybe the moves are made based need more so than what might be considered fair.

 

[KingBogo]

This bolded is another big question. You are tending to ignore human nature a bit, I think. People don't necessarily react that well. They feel more than just a little frustration. There is resentment, discouragement, and self doubt creeps in there too.

I think it comes down to how much they are either rushed or over-ripened. A little of either doesn't hurt, or shouldn't. A lot of either might hurt a lot. And then of course, it varies with each individual.

Assuming every prospect wants more opportunity than they currently have which ones do you favour as an organization or do you just give them a relatively even playing field to compete for work. And what about human nature of the incumbent who themselves has a prospect at one time and worked their way through the ranks and battled their way into full time work. How do they feel about their job being given to someone who hasn’t had to put in the work? They understand for the elite prospects that have star potential. But only Perfetti fits that category and he was fast tracked into a top 6 role.