Around the NHL 10 - 2022/23

[DRW204]

not sure how this is now a draft-and-develop thread but the Jets are basically average in that regard, which is not good for a supposed "draft-and-develop" team (ridiculous moniker imo) , and for a gm that cannot sign players, and has trouble trading for them. imo if you have trouble signing/trading players your draft-and-develop should or needs be top of the league.

they were good first few years when they were customary in the top-10 in the 1st rd, KC ofc was a great pick in the historic 2015 draft. but imo quality teams that sustain success get those later round picks that flourish, since they do not have the luxury of a slew of top-10 picks that can come in.

also bit of a sidenote but pertains to the whole signing FAs..... but who are some of the marquee or big money/name FAs the last few cup winners brought in? Nichushkin (who was basically nothing at the time), Maroon+Shattenkirk, Maroon+Bozak.... other than Nichuskin who was in the KHL whole lotta meh.

Comparing Nashville vs Jets drafted D men since 2011 with 100gp. Jets have Trouba, Poolman, Morrissey, Stanley vs Nashville has Girard, Fabbro, Seth Jones, Alex Carrier. I think the Predator's have a bit of an edge there, but it's not too far off.

other than trouba and morrissey, the other 2 are basically 3rd pair at best? they've had trouble getting top-4 quality dmen. 2 in 12 drafts (so far as to early for the past 1-2 drafts). But it'll probably be over 10 years since a quality top-4 Dman was drafted by the jets, and it's not like there's been unquestionable great players ahead of the depth chart since 2019.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's really a hard question to answer. I think certain teams do develop better then others and certain teams are better at developing a certain position better then other positions. Maybe that is more scouting as they better know what to look for in certain positions.

For instance Nashville keeps churning out great dmen but when was the last time they successfully drafted and integrated a high end forward? Is that because they have a good model for drafting and developing dmen and not one for forwards?

I'd say the Jets are the opposite of Nashville, they seem to know what to look for in forwards and for the most part successfuly integrate them. There success rate on dmen however is nowhere near as high.

So I'd say we are above average on forwards, below average on dmen and likely well above average on goalies by default drafting a top 3 one in Helle.

I think it goes back to drafting BPA. BPA is often very difficult to identify. Some organizations may be biased toward seeing quality at 1 position more than at another. Or it may just be coincidence of what happens to be available when a team drafts BPA.

The Jets have taken 1 Dman with their 1st pick since Morrissey, Heinola. That is 8 F to 1 D. They did spend a 1st on Stanley in '16. Jets have had 12 drafts total. In that time their first 2 picks each year have been 17 F, 7 D. They've had 14 first rd picks altogether. 10 have been F, 4 have been D.

If we talk in terms of development, they've certainly invested a lot of development in Stanley. The return on that investment has not been very large. What do you think of the way they are developing Heinola? Seems to be spinning his wheels to me. His fault? Or the Jets? Maybe both.

 

[Gm0ney]

I wouldn't say he's flourishing. He's doing well enough but he wouldn't have supplanted DeMelo, Schmidt or Pionk on this team and Winnipeg has different goals than Montreal does this season.

It's been 7 games. I still think he's back here on the Moose to finish the season when Montreal decides to bring Justin Barron up. Or, maybe another bottom end NHL team that needs to put 18 skaters on the ice.

Pionk??? Is this post from 2020?

 

[surixon]

I think it goes back to drafting BPA. BPA is often very difficult to identify. Some organizations may be biased toward seeing quality at 1 position more than at another. Or it may just be coincidence of what happens to be available when a team drafts BPA.

The Jets have taken 1 Dman with their 1st pick since Morrissey, Heinola. That is 8 F to 1 D. They did spend a 1st on Stanley in '16. Jets have had 12 drafts total. In that time their first 2 picks each year have been 17 F, 7 D. They've had 14 first rd picks altogether. 10 have been F, 4 have been D.

If we talk in terms of development, they've certainly invested a lot of development in Stanley. The return on that investment has not been very large. What do you think of the way they are developing Heinola? Seems to be spinning his wheels to me. His fault? Or the Jets? Maybe both.

My thoughts are that Heinola has learned pretty much all he's going to learn at the AHL level and he needs to be challenged at the NHL level. It's time to see if he has what it takes over a longer sample of games.

So in that respect I feel that the org is botching things with regards to not seemingly having a plan for him to take a spot on this team. I find this org has a bit of a blind spot for the big "PK" dmen and give them far more rope then the smaller skilled dmen. The only small skilled guy they have successfully integrated was JoMo and that was really only after he completely translated his game to a d first guy. I guess we will see if they are able to integrate Ville or if he's moved in a part of a trade.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I think Ville is a good ahl D but like niku I'm not sure he does much in the NHL.

These guys who generally dominate the A usually don't do much in the NHL. I think he'd make a good pp qb d man tho and right now we seriously lack it

 

[LowLefty]

My thoughts are that Heinola has learned pretty much all he's going to learn at the AHL level and he needs to be challenged at the NHL level. It's time to see if he has what it takes over a longer sample of games.

So in that respect I feel that the org is botching things with regards to not seemingly having a plan for him to take a spot on this team. I find this org has a bit of a blind spot for the big "PK" dmen and give them far more rope then the smaller skilled dmen. The only small skilled guy they have successfully integrated was JoMo and that was really only after he completely translated his game to a d first guy. I guess we will see if they are able to integrate Ville or if he's moved in a part of a trade.

I'm not sure the org has a blind spot for big D considering they have a small blueline -
They might be trying to work one or two into the lineup but it's not based on a blind spot - its a need.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

My thoughts are that Heinola has learned pretty much all he's going to learn at the AHL level and he needs to be challenged at the NHL level. It's time to see if he has what it takes over a longer sample of games.

So in that respect I feel that the org is botching things with regards to not seemingly having a plan for him to take a spot on this team. I find this org has a bit of a blind spot for the big "PK" dmen and give them far more rope then the smaller skilled dmen. The only small skilled guy they have successfully integrated was JoMo and that was really only after he completely translated his game to a d first guy. I guess we will see if they are able to integrate Ville or if he's moved in a part of a trade.

IIRC, there was a lot of buzz about other teams wanting Ville in the '21 off-season. Not so much this off-season. As time passes his trade value will fall if he is left in the A, or worse, the PB. I've been thinking of using him as a piece in a bigger trade for quite a while now.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think Ville is a good ahl D but like niku I'm not sure he does much in the NHL.

These guys who generally dominate the A usually don't do much in the NHL. I think he'd make a good pp qb d man tho and right now we seriously lack it

There is some similarity between Niku and Heinola. But you are comparing a 20th OA pick to a 198th OA pick. There are reasons for that difference in draft level.

 

[surixon]

I'm not sure the org has a blind spot for big D considering they have a small blueline -
They might be trying to work one or two into the lineup but it's not based on a blind spot - its a need.

They have one with regards to their drafted ones. They tend to trade for their smaller ones not integrate their own.

Also the Jets blueline isn't small, the Jets don't have a single dmen under 6 feet. They are roughly NHL average in height.

 

[sipowicz]

There is some similarity between Niku and Heinola. But you are comparing a 20th OA pick to a 198th OA pick. There are reasons for that difference in draft level.

Well some here went on and on about getting Niku into the lineup ASAP and when we finally did see him we saw a really weak defensively undersized D man who had no business even being near the NHL!

 

[CorgisPer60]

So, this is nhl players drafted per team/ per year? I think these drafts are too recent to be meaningful, but it is interesting. Jets have 2 players don't they? Laine and Stanley. Meaning the Leafs don't have 3x the hits, just 1.5x, but that number will be completely different in a few years (maybe even this year).

I put the cut off at 2016-2020 because that gives you a 5-year window of draft and develop, while removing most of the foundation that the Jets are currently built on. That 2015 draft was pretty substantial, but was also 8 years ago at this point. It's still a data point, and one I will explore when I get off work.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Well some here went on and on about getting Niku into the lineup ASAP and when we finally did see him we saw a really weak defensively undersized D man who had no business even being near the NHL!

He was named AHL Dman of the year in '18, IIRC. That got a lot of people excited. Problem was not just that he was poor defensively, he never seemed able to translate his offense to the NHL either. Was always too tentative. Ville could end up going the same way, but it is way too early to be assuming that just because of a stylistic similarity.

 

[tbcwpg]

Pionk??? Is this post from 2020?

You think Kovacevic was realistically going to take over from Neal Pionk?

 

[bumblebeeman]

I put the cut off at 2016-2020 because that gives you a 5-year window of draft and develop, while removing most of the foundation that the Jets are currently built on. That 2015 draft was pretty substantial, but was also 8 years ago at this point. It's still a data point, and one I will explore when I get off work.

How come you only counted one of Stanley and Laine?

 

[Jet]

I think it goes back to drafting BPA. BPA is often very difficult to identify. Some organizations may be biased toward seeing quality at 1 position more than at another. Or it may just be coincidence of what happens to be available when a team drafts BPA.

The Jets have taken 1 Dman with their 1st pick since Morrissey, Heinola. That is 8 F to 1 D. They did spend a 1st on Stanley in '16. Jets have had 12 drafts total. In that time their first 2 picks each year have been 17 F, 7 D. They've had 14 first rd picks altogether. 10 have been F, 4 have been D.

If we talk in terms of development, they've certainly invested a lot of development in Stanley. The return on that investment has not been very large. What do you think of the way they are developing Heinola? Seems to be spinning his wheels to me. His fault? Or the Jets? Maybe both.

I dont think Heinola is spinning his wheels. He was much improved this tc over last, and is tracking comparatively against his peers.

I'm hoping to see him take the next step in the AHL this year and become a leader. All parts of development

 

[JetsFan815]

Wait? What???? You mean a career nhl ahl tweener isn't the second coming of Hellebuyck?

View attachment 601553

I mean I am not sure why you are ragging on the guy... those are not bad stats for a backup. I don't think any Comrie supporter here was thinking he would supplant Helle... most just thought that he was decent backup and good story considering how much he toiled and was home grown.

 

[CorgisPer60]

How come you only counted one of Stanley and Laine?

I counted both of them. I counted each and every drafted player between 2016 and 2020 that played at least a hundred games, and divided them by five to arrive at the numbers. Laine and Stan are the only hits for the Jets in that time frame, so that equaled a mean score of 0.2.

 

[KingBogo]

When you finally realize how difficult it is for Winnipeg to put together a team that can compete vs almost any other team you will then understand that what we are doing as an organization is pretty solid

The NHL being a cap league with free agency can reward teams with a get out of jail free card if they are willing to spend and if players are willing to go.

Maybe Ottawa is close to us in undesirability as a location, maybe Edmonton too

For drafting and developing what the Jets are doing is pretty good. Things of course could be better and you should always strive to learn from mistakes. For the most part once you draft a player it really is up to them in how they develop.

I was thinking this as I was reading through the posts. After a player is drafted all you can really do is try and put in place the best possible conditions to help a player develop. First would not be rushing them into NHL roles before they are ready. After that it is having them play at the most appropriate level for their stage of development. After that own and operate your own farm team so you can prioritize player development over winning. You have your kids play important roles in important situations rather than career AHLers. And you have dedicated player development guys so the prospects are doing the right things to maximize development especially in the off season.

From what I can see is that True North does most of these things well. IMO the most important thing is picking the right player come the draft. I knew a kid growing up drafted in the mid rounds who signed his ELC, bought a pickup and then decided that off season training was doing an extra 9 holes when the round was done and skipping the bacon on his after game cheese burger which he washed down with a 6 pack. Safe to say he never made it past the AHL and played most of his career at levels below that. Hell of a junior player though.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

None first round picks:

Tanev
Appelton
Lowry
Copp
Helle
Comrie
Poolman

*Gus
*Samberg
*Kovacevik

Seems like we've developed our share of late round picks with a couple others looking like they will be NHL players. You can make the case about lack of impact players outside of Helle but we have developed a number of late round picks into NHL players.

I mean it's almost like you think no development occurs at the NHL level. Also if you want to include none NHL development the following top prospects saw atleast 1 year of AHL time:

Morrissey, Conner, Roslovic, Perfetti, Stanley.

Add Petan, and harkens to the above. Over 100 games.

 

[Weezeric]

I counted both of them. I counted each and every drafted player between 2016 and 2020 that played at least a hundred games, and divided them by five to arrive at the numbers. Laine and Stan are the only hits for the Jets in that time frame, so that equaled a mean score of 0.2.

1 / 5 = .2
2 / 5 = Not .2

I’m not a mathematician but….

 

[snowkiddin]

My thoughts are that Heinola has learned pretty much all he's going to learn at the AHL level and he needs to be challenged at the NHL level. It's time to see if he has what it takes over a longer sample of games.

So in that respect I feel that the org is botching things with regards to not seemingly having a plan for him to take a spot on this team. I find this org has a bit of a blind spot for the big "PK" dmen and give them far more rope then the smaller skilled dmen. The only small skilled guy they have successfully integrated was JoMo and that was really only after he completely translated his game to a d first guy. I guess we will see if they are able to integrate Ville or if he's moved in a part of a trade.

I bet you he’s traded now. I think Chisholm will fill his role and we’ll look to get a forward for him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I sit think Heinola is spinning his wheels. He was much improved this tc over last, and is tracking comparatively against his peers.

I'm hoping to see him take the next step in the AHL this year and become a leader. All parts of development

True, he was better in TC this year. Doesn't seem to be doing much with the Moose this year, according to most reports here.

 

[DRW204]

I remember reading that an NHL team needs to pull 2 players out of the draft to be above average, which ostensibly includes 1st round picks. You can't expect to hit on everything, but you need to pull _someone_ out to maintain a healthy pipeline. No one drafted after 2016 has played a significant amount of time for the Jets. Gus may be the first one. Let's look at each team, starting with 2016-2020 (no one played more than 100 games from 2021). To make this easier, I'm just looking at drafted players by team, and not tracking trades. It's imperfect, but they're still NHL players regardless of where they were developed.

Player draft hits per team (min 100 games played):
ANA: 1.2
ARI: 0.6
BOS: 0.6
BUF: 1.2
CAR: 1.2
CBJ: 0.8
CAL: 0.6
CHI: 1.0
AVS: 0.4
DAL: 0.4
DET: 1.0 (technically one player in 2017 is at 99 games played, so I counted it anyways)
EDM: 0.6
FLA: 0.6
LAK: 0.4
MIN: 0.2
MTL: 0.8
NJD: 1.8 (Dawson Mercer needs 9 more games to hit 100GP, and was drafted in 2020, so I counted him)
NSH: 0.6
NYI: 0.2
NYR: 1.0 (that 2016 draft lol)
OTT: 0.8
PHI: 0.6
PIT: 0.0
SJS: 0.4
STL: 0.6
TBL: 0.6 (2016 technically only has 2 players, but 2 more are playing games this season that will have them break the criteria, bringing TBL up to 1.0 if they hit)
TML: 0.6 (0.8 if Sean Durzi plays 27 more games this season)
VAN: 0.6
VGK: 0.6 (0.8 if Glass plays 18 more games this year)
WPG: 0.2
WSH: 0.0 (Fehervary needs 6 more games to hit 0.2; McMichael needs 30 more to bring it to 0.4)

So, there are _far_ more teams below the 1 player hit, which tells me that I may have bit a bit stringent on the cutoff. Still, there is some useful data to pull out of this. The teams who made the playoffs the most in those 5 years have the fewest hits on average, but there are a few standouts amongst the rest. Carolina made the playoffs in 3/5 years, and have a 1.2 hit rate. NAS made the playoffs in 5/5 years and have a 0.6. TBL have won the Stanley cup twice, made the playoffs in all 5 years, and are tantalizingly close to a 1.0 hit rate. NJD have the highest hit rate, and only made the playoffs one of those years. Conversely, BUF missed every year and owns a 1.2 hit rate. Jets made the playoffs 4/5 years, and have a 0.2 rate. TML made the playoffs all 5 years, and have 3x the amount of hit players.

Why do you simply use GP as a performance indicator and not have some sort of production component (pts, pts/gp, GAR, etc), and/or not take into account pick number or number of selections in a given draft?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I was thinking this as I was reading through the posts. After a player is drafted all you can really do is try and put in place the best possible conditions to help a player develop. First would not be rushing them into NHL roles before they are ready. After that it is having them play at the most appropriate level for their stage of development. After that own and operate your own farm team so you can prioritize player development over winning. You have your kids play important roles in important situations rather than career AHLers. And you have dedicated player development guys so the prospects are doing the right things to maximize development especially in the off season.

From what I can see is that True North does most of these things well. IMO the most important thing is picking the right player come the draft. I knew a kid growing up drafted in the mid rounds who signed his ELC, bought a pickup and then decided that off season training was doing an extra 9 holes when the round was done and skipping the bacon on his after game cheese burger which he washed down with a 6 pack. Safe to say he never made it past the AHL and played most of his career at levels below that. Hell of a junior player though.

This something we never get to see, except for the results. You can watch a player from a great distance and form an impression. You see his stats from year to year getting better, say through D+1, D+2. Then you see him hit the AHL and he is not bad for a rookie pro but not setting the world on fire. In D+4 his production is down from his rookie year and down again the next year. You can wonder what is going on but you very rarely get to know. There are all kinds of temptations and distractions for young athletes and they can ruin a career. Then there are the effects of injuries or a simple lack of drive and dedication. Coaches can try to direct or mentor a young man but in the end, it is up to him to do what it takes to make it at the higher levels.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I bet you he’s traded now. I think Chisholm will fill his role and we’ll look to get a forward for him.

I hope so. What teams could use a good offensive Dman who can play either side? I mean other than the Jets.

Seems a little odd that he isn't a good fit here. It seems to me that we just haven't had the right partner for him. DeMelo could be it, but we only have 1 DeMelo. Samberg could be it in another year or two, if they want Ville on the right side. JMo could be it but Ville is not ready for top 4 competition. And so on.

Why do you simply use GP as a performance indicator and not have some sort of production component (pts, pts/gp, GAR, etc), and/or not take into account pick number or number of selections in a given draft?

How much work do you want him to do?
He is just trying to relate it to the rule of thumb of just under 2 per year.