Around the NHL 10 - 2022/23

[nobody imp0rtant]

So, with the Leafs in win now panic mode...I wonder if Nylander could be had. Be a big boost to our top 6.

What would you offer for him?

Pretty sure only Leafs fans are in panic mode.

 

[CorgisPer60]

Outside of the 1st rd picks, what players have the Jets 'developed'? How many prospects have failed to live up to expectations under Jets 'development'?

I remember reading that an NHL team needs to pull 2 players out of the draft to be above average, which ostensibly includes 1st round picks. You can't expect to hit on everything, but you need to pull _someone_ out to maintain a healthy pipeline. No one drafted after 2016 has played a significant amount of time for the Jets. Gus may be the first one. Let's look at each team, starting with 2016-2020 (no one played more than 100 games from 2021). To make this easier, I'm just looking at drafted players by team, and not tracking trades. It's imperfect, but they're still NHL players regardless of where they were developed.

Player draft hits per team (min 100 games played):
ANA: 1.2
ARI: 0.6
BOS: 0.6
BUF: 1.2
CAR: 1.2
CBJ: 0.8
CAL: 0.6
CHI: 1.0
AVS: 0.4
DAL: 0.4
DET: 1.0 (technically one player in 2017 is at 99 games played, so I counted it anyways)
EDM: 0.6
FLA: 0.6
LAK: 0.4
MIN: 0.2
MTL: 0.8
NJD: 1.8 (Dawson Mercer needs 9 more games to hit 100GP, and was drafted in 2020, so I counted him)
NSH: 0.6
NYI: 0.2
NYR: 1.0 (that 2016 draft lol)
OTT: 0.8
PHI: 0.6
PIT: 0.0
SJS: 0.4
STL: 0.6
TBL: 0.6 (2016 technically only has 2 players, but 2 more are playing games this season that will have them break the criteria, bringing TBL up to 1.0 if they hit)
TML: 0.6 (0.8 if Sean Durzi plays 27 more games this season)
VAN: 0.6
VGK: 0.6 (0.8 if Glass plays 18 more games this year)
WPG: 0.2
WSH: 0.0 (Fehervary needs 6 more games to hit 0.2; McMichael needs 30 more to bring it to 0.4)

So, there are _far_ more teams below the 1 player hit, which tells me that I may have bit a bit stringent on the cutoff. Still, there is some useful data to pull out of this. The teams who made the playoffs the most in those 5 years have the fewest hits on average, but there are a few standouts amongst the rest. Carolina made the playoffs in 3/5 years, and have a 1.2 hit rate. NAS made the playoffs in 5/5 years and have a 0.6. TBL have won the Stanley cup twice, made the playoffs in all 5 years, and are tantalizingly close to a 1.0 hit rate. NJD have the highest hit rate, and only made the playoffs one of those years. Conversely, BUF missed every year and owns a 1.2 hit rate. Jets made the playoffs 4/5 years, and have a 0.2 rate. TML made the playoffs all 5 years, and have 3x the amount of hit players.

 

[Heldig]

What I’ve read from Leafs fans most seem to be in the mood to move Marner. Now that makes for a more interesting discussion.

Jets cant afford to trade the pieces required to get Marner IMO.

 

[DRW204]

So, with the Leafs in win now panic mode...I wonder if Nylander could be had. Be a big boost to our top 6.

What would you offer for him?

Think of what you'd want for ehlers. And probably add to that.

 

[Atoyot]

I think we broke St Louis.

 

[KingBogo]

Jets cant afford to trade the pieces required to get Marner IMO.

It was kind of humorous how little the angry Leafs mob was willing to move him for. The Leafs board is like the Jets board but even more extreme as the season roller coaster go up and down.

 

[Heldig]

Think of what you'd want for ehlers. And probably add to that.

Certainly would not add. I prefer Ehlers AND Ehlers has more term and cheaper.

 

[DRW204]

Certainly would not add. I prefer Ehlers AND Ehlers has more term and cheaper.

Not saying ehlers for nylander. I'm saying their trade values are probably in the same realm, and Nylander has scored more in recent years + stays in the lineup.

 

[gojetsgo]

comrie's season has been up and down so far .892, .958, .930, .792, .912 and .833 tonight

 

[DRW204]

Tage Thompson 6pt night.

 

[tbcwpg]

Never understood the appeal of that smug douche. Maybe it's because I'm in the US, not Canada...

The appeal to Leafs fans is he rants about stuff Leafs fans rant about and the appeal to non-Leafs fans is the ranting when the Leafs struggle. He says himself often that his videos do much better numbers wise when the Leafs lose.

 

[Heldig]

Tage Thompson 6pt night.

Busted out in his 6th season.

 

[Jet]

comrie's season has been up and down so far .892, .958, .930, .792, .912 and .833 tonight

Wait? What???? You mean a career nhl ahl tweener isn't the second coming of Hellebuyck?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I did and agree whole-heartedly with you. Even two of the three talking heads on the TSN panel were baffled by that call. If not suspect, the officiating across the league is at least inconsistent......maybe it has always been?

Always? That would be consistently inconsistent.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

"Outside of the 1st rd picks, what players have the Jets 'developed'? How many prospects have failed to live up to expectations under Jets 'development'?"

if you have high expectations for players outside the first round then you should really look up the odds for players drafted outside the first round playing >99 nhl games, it significantly drops from the first round on...

I never said "high expectations". I said expectations, whatever they may have been.
Not everything conforms to the averages. 2015 was a very strong draft. You could have higher expectations for players that year than for players at similar positions in other years. 2012 was a weak draft, so you have the opposite effect. Expectations are not written in stone on draft day. Sometimes expectations developed after the draft.

 

[RabidOne]

Never understood the appeal of that smug douche. Maybe it's because I'm in the US, not Canada...

Thats because he’s a douche.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

None first round picks:

Tanev
Appelton
Lowry
Copp
Helle
Comrie
Poolman

*Gus
*Samberg
*Kovacevik

Seems like we've developed our share of late round picks with a couple others looking like they will be NHL players. You can make the case about lack of impact players outside of Helle but we have developed a number of late round picks into NHL players.

I mean it's almost like you think no development occurs at the NHL level. Also if you want to include none NHL development the following top prospects saw atleast 1 year of AHL time:

Morrissey, Conner, Roslovic, Perfetti, Stanley.

The mantra around here (at least with quite a few) is that the NHL is not a development league.

It is always hard to decide how much the organization develops players and how much is just natural development. I don't see any reason to credit the Jets with being anything more or less than avg at development. Some players have developed well here, some not.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Rule of thumb is if you get 2 players per draft you are above average.

Yup. So far, Jets have 16 out of 12 drafts, with a bunch of recent ones yet to be decided. A couple of those are borderline. But how much of that is drafting and how much is developing?

OK well you continue to be angst about Kovacevic. I'll just be happy he's getting an opportunity elsewhere and so far has made the most of it.

We can revisit this situation after the season is over.

Fair enough. And I agree about being happy he is getting a chance somewhere. I like to see everyone succeed. Of course, there isn't quite room for that.

I thought it was "fired into the sun"?

Yes, immediately.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Seriously this is too funny ... talking about the Leaf fans having a melt down on the Jets' board when some Jet fans on these boards are having a melt down with the Jets getting 5/6 points on the 3 games in 4 nights road trip.
This is the NHL the best hockey players in the World play in this league. If you think one team can dominate another team for 60 minutes you need to get your head a shake.
The Blues' game was a fluke ... injuries and end of a road trip was the reason why the Blues looked sluggish and the Jets looked like World Champs.

They play an 82 game schedule just to see who gets to play for the Cup. 8-9 games in is too early to conclude anything. Leafs last year had the same record at this point. Jets were 9-3-3 IIRC after 15 games. Parity is a real thing so the difference between a contender and a pretender is pretty small.

We can look at more than just the points though. We can see weaknesses and patterns. We can't see how the team is going to react to those things though. I'm still going to give it a few more games before I characterize the team for the season.

Buyers remorse for the Wings on 4th line Copp?

Too soon for that too.

So, with the Leafs in win now panic mode...I wonder if Nylander could be had. Be a big boost to our top 6.

What would you offer for him?

Pionk + a 3rd. Laffs need RHD.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I remember reading that an NHL team needs to pull 2 players out of the draft to be above average, which ostensibly includes 1st round picks. You can't expect to hit on everything, but you need to pull _someone_ out to maintain a healthy pipeline. No one drafted after 2016 has played a significant amount of time for the Jets. Gus may be the first one. Let's look at each team, starting with 2016-2020 (no one played more than 100 games from 2021). To make this easier, I'm just looking at drafted players by team, and not tracking trades. It's imperfect, but they're still NHL players regardless of where they were developed.

Player draft hits per team (min 100 games played):
ANA: 1.2
ARI: 0.6
BOS: 0.6
BUF: 1.2
CAR: 1.2
CBJ: 0.8
CAL: 0.6
CHI: 1.0
AVS: 0.4
DAL: 0.4
DET: 1.0 (technically one player in 2017 is at 99 games played, so I counted it anyways)
EDM: 0.6
FLA: 0.6
LAK: 0.4
MIN: 0.2
MTL: 0.8
NJD: 1.8 (Dawson Mercer needs 9 more games to hit 100GP, and was drafted in 2020, so I counted him)
NSH: 0.6
NYI: 0.2
NYR: 1.0 (that 2016 draft lol)
OTT: 0.8
PHI: 0.6
PIT: 0.0
SJS: 0.4
STL: 0.6
TBL: 0.6 (2016 technically only has 2 players, but 2 more are playing games this season that will have them break the criteria, bringing TBL up to 1.0 if they hit)
TML: 0.6 (0.8 if Sean Durzi plays 27 more games this season)
VAN: 0.6
VGK: 0.6 (0.8 if Glass plays 18 more games this year)
WPG: 0.2
WSH: 0.0 (Fehervary needs 6 more games to hit 0.2; McMichael needs 30 more to bring it to 0.4)

So, there are _far_ more teams below the 1 player hit, which tells me that I may have bit a bit stringent on the cutoff. Still, there is some useful data to pull out of this. The teams who made the playoffs the most in those 5 years have the fewest hits on average, but there are a few standouts amongst the rest. Carolina made the playoffs in 3/5 years, and have a 1.2 hit rate. NAS made the playoffs in 5/5 years and have a 0.6. TBL have won the Stanley cup twice, made the playoffs in all 5 years, and are tantalizingly close to a 1.0 hit rate. NJD have the highest hit rate, and only made the playoffs one of those years. Conversely, BUF missed every year and owns a 1.2 hit rate. Jets made the playoffs 4/5 years, and have a 0.2 rate. TML made the playoffs all 5 years, and have 3x the amount of hit players.

Interesting. Even though you cut off 2 drafts back, there will be more players make it, especially from the '19 & '20 drafts. But it is a fair comparison using the same criteria for all teams.

The correlation between high finishes and low player hits is interesting in that it conforms to expectations. Not only are those teams drafting later but they also frequently trade their picks to try and put the finishing touches on their rosters.

 

[surixon]

The mantra around here (at least with quite a few) is that the NHL is not a development league.

It is always hard to decide how much the organization develops players and how much is just natural development. I don't see any reason to credit the Jets with being anything more or less than avg at development. Some players have developed well here, some not.

It's really a hard question to answer. I think certain teams do develop better then others and certain teams are better at developing a certain position better then other positions. Maybe that is more scouting as they better know what to look for in certain positions.

For instance Nashville keeps churning out great dmen but when was the last time they successfully drafted and integrated a high end forward? Is that because they have a good model for drafting and developing dmen and not one for forwards?

I'd say the Jets are the opposite of Nashville, they seem to know what to look for in forwards and for the most part successfuly integrate them. There success rate on dmen however is nowhere near as high.

So I'd say we are above average on forwards, below average on dmen and likely well above average on goalies by default drafting a top 3 one in Helle.

 

[bumblebeeman]

I remember reading that an NHL team needs to pull 2 players out of the draft to be above average, which ostensibly includes 1st round picks. You can't expect to hit on everything, but you need to pull _someone_ out to maintain a healthy pipeline. No one drafted after 2016 has played a significant amount of time for the Jets. Gus may be the first one. Let's look at each team, starting with 2016-2020 (no one played more than 100 games from 2021). To make this easier, I'm just looking at drafted players by team, and not tracking trades. It's imperfect, but they're still NHL players regardless of where they were developed.

Player draft hits per team (min 100 games played):
ANA: 1.2
ARI: 0.6
BOS: 0.6
BUF: 1.2
CAR: 1.2
CBJ: 0.8
CAL: 0.6
CHI: 1.0
AVS: 0.4
DAL: 0.4
DET: 1.0 (technically one player in 2017 is at 99 games played, so I counted it anyways)
EDM: 0.6
FLA: 0.6
LAK: 0.4
MIN: 0.2
MTL: 0.8
NJD: 1.8 (Dawson Mercer needs 9 more games to hit 100GP, and was drafted in 2020, so I counted him)
NSH: 0.6
NYI: 0.2
NYR: 1.0 (that 2016 draft lol)
OTT: 0.8
PHI: 0.6
PIT: 0.0
SJS: 0.4
STL: 0.6
TBL: 0.6 (2016 technically only has 2 players, but 2 more are playing games this season that will have them break the criteria, bringing TBL up to 1.0 if they hit)
TML: 0.6 (0.8 if Sean Durzi plays 27 more games this season)
VAN: 0.6
VGK: 0.6 (0.8 if Glass plays 18 more games this year)
WPG: 0.2
WSH: 0.0 (Fehervary needs 6 more games to hit 0.2; McMichael needs 30 more to bring it to 0.4)

So, there are _far_ more teams below the 1 player hit, which tells me that I may have bit a bit stringent on the cutoff. Still, there is some useful data to pull out of this. The teams who made the playoffs the most in those 5 years have the fewest hits on average, but there are a few standouts amongst the rest. Carolina made the playoffs in 3/5 years, and have a 1.2 hit rate. NAS made the playoffs in 5/5 years and have a 0.6. TBL have won the Stanley cup twice, made the playoffs in all 5 years, and are tantalizingly close to a 1.0 hit rate. NJD have the highest hit rate, and only made the playoffs one of those years. Conversely, BUF missed every year and owns a 1.2 hit rate. Jets made the playoffs 4/5 years, and have a 0.2 rate. TML made the playoffs all 5 years, and have 3x the amount of hit players.

So, this is nhl players drafted per team/ per year? I think these drafts are too recent to be meaningful, but it is interesting. Jets have 2 players don't they? Laine and Stanley. Meaning the Leafs don't have 3x the hits, just 1.5x, but that number will be completely different in a few years (maybe even this year).

 

[bumblebeeman]

It's really a hard question to answer. I think certain teams do develop better then others and certain teams are better at developing a certain position better then other positions. Maybe that is more scouting as they better know what to look for in certain positions.

For instance Nashville keeps churning out great dmen but when was the last time they successfully drafted and integrated a high end forward? Is that because they have a good model for drafting and developing dmen and not one for forwards?

I'd say the Jets are the opposite of Nashville, they seem to know what to look for in forwards and for the most part successfuly integrate them. There success rate on dmen however is nowhere near as high.

So I'd say we are above average on forwards, below average on dmen and likely well above average on goalies by default drafting a top 3 one in Helle.

Comparing Nashville vs Jets drafted D men since 2011 with 100gp. Jets have Trouba, Poolman, Morrissey, Stanley vs Nashville has Girard, Fabbro, Seth Jones, Alex Carrier. I think the Predator's have a bit of an edge there, but it's not too far off.

 

[surixon]

Comparing Nashville vs Jets drafted D men since 2011 with 100gp. Jets have Trouba, Poolman, Morrissey, Stanley vs Nashville has Girard, Fabbro, Seth Jones, Alex Carrier. I think the Predator's have a bit of an edge there, but it's not too far off.

Yeah they aren't that far ahead if you are only going back that far but if you go back to 2009 they add Ellis, Ekholm and Josi to that list.

Still if your juat looking at recently that is still a number 1 dmen in Jones and a couple second paring guys in Fabbro and Girard. Pretty good.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

When you finally realize how difficult it is for Winnipeg to put together a team that can compete vs almost any other team you will then understand that what we are doing as an organization is pretty solid

The NHL being a cap league with free agency can reward teams with a get out of jail free card if they are willing to spend and if players are willing to go.

Maybe Ottawa is close to us in undesirability as a location, maybe Edmonton too

For drafting and developing what the Jets are doing is pretty good. Things of course could be better and you should always strive to learn from mistakes. For the most part once you draft a player it really is up to them in how they develop.