Around the NHL — Episode XLXVI

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Zaitsev's extra year is the kicker. Moving him wouldn't seem like as much of a priority otherwise.

 

[Big Muddy]

Not at all. Cap space does accrue during the year IF you have cap space. At the draft until the start of FA many teams have far less than 20 players signed, have parted ways with expired contracts and have their maximum cap space. As rosters are built that space dries up and many teams wind up with very little wiggle room. There are already 9 teams who must make moves to get back into compliance as well as 3 more teams within a million of the upper limit. Lots of FAs still to sign.

Except for the bolded part above, you are talking about something different than what Xspirit talked about and that I agreed with. We were talking about accruing cap space after the season has started and during the season. The example that was provided explains it.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Matthew at 9.5 x 8 or Brady at 8.25 x 8?

Brady but we haven't seen how he does in the playoffs.

Matthew has not been great in the playoffs (even if he did ok this year)

 

[SpezDispenser]

Matthew has not been great in the playoffs (even if he did ok this year)

*except when it mattered

 

[Do Make Say Think]

*except when it mattered

He was invisible against the Oilers after Game 1. The game in which he scored 3 of his 4 playoff goals this year. He had one assist in 5 game against Edmonton.

He was definitely good against Dallas: 1 goal and 5 assists in 7 games.

As a powerforward though? He's underwhelmed in the playoffs.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Not at all. Cap space does accrue during the year IF you have cap space. At the draft until the start of FA many teams have far less than 20 players signed, have parted ways with expired contracts and have their maximum cap space. As rosters are built that space dries up and many teams wind up with very little wiggle room. There are already 9 teams who must make moves to get back into compliance as well as 3 more teams within a million of the upper limit. Lots of FAs still to sign.

Exactly, thanks for taking the time to explain the clearly

 

[Ice-Tray]

Except for the bolded part above, you are talking about something different than what Xspirit talked about and that I agreed with. We were talking about accruing cap space after the season has started and during the season. The example that was provided explains it.

That wasn’t my point though. My point was that the time where there is the most cap space available across the NHL is when teams are looking to fill out their rosters once FA period begins.

It’s not that no team will be able to afford a pro rated Brown at the TDL, it’s that we do t know how many contending teams would have room, want Brown, and be willing to take him without anything coming back.

If you look at the parameters of the actual trade and consider the money savings and the fact that we took no salary back, you’ll see that that’s a harder deal to make at the TDL.

We can’t simply pretend that we could make a trade with the same parameters at the TDL and get a better return.

All of that is also without considering that Brown had already indicated that he would not be extending, that we have an internal budget and wanted to shed salary for other players, and that nothing had been sorted out HC wise at the time of the trade.

That is also all without considering that Brown could once again be injured at a time where we wanted to trade him, could be disgruntled in the locker room given the reduced role and his expressed desire to move before a contract year.

We took the best the NHL had to offer when the league had the most financial flexibility. The question becomes would a potential increase from a second to a first be worth dealing with all of the above variables?

Opinions vary obviously, but trading him now certainly doesn’t look like a mistake when considering the entire picture.

 

[Icelevel]

Brady but we haven't seen how he does in the playoffs.

Matthew has not been great in the playoffs (even if he did ok this year)

We don’t have to see. When he gets there he’ll be a total beast. I’ll bet my house on it. (Should have a house by then . )

 

[TheDebater]

Definitely a buyer's market right now, which should bode well when Dorion finally pulls the trigger on a defenseman.

 

[Big Muddy]

That wasn’t my point though.

Well, that certainly wasn't clear based on the words that you typed.

 

[JD1]

Well I think the real goal was to acquire Tanev or Weegar, which if done makes Zaitsev extremely overpaid if his role in the team is going to be 7th D.

Zaitsev was included to balance things a bit because of how bad Monahan is. I personally think the play to male is to get a guy like Tanev without needing to include Monahan, if we need to add a bit more so be it, we can dump Zaitsev in a seperate move.

Simply put, we can't afford to waste money (not cap but actual dollars) on Monahan. If he's LTIRetired that's a different beast though and could work, but I don't think that's the case here.

So I don't think Monahan is ltir'd either. So his 6+ cap hit comes with a 6m salary. I just don't see a recipe where we acquire a Calgary D with Monahan attached. I don't think Monahan could even make our team.

The only way for us to acquire a top 4 Rd is moving Zaitsev out. If we could get a top end Rd, great, that works but it doesn't seem likely. If Zub plays 22 minutes, we're talking the difference between the new player and pushing Hamonic down a slot, and Hamonic pushing Zaitsev out.

Zub 22
Hamonic 20
Zaitsev 18

There's 60 minutes. Probably don't even need that because the LDs play the PP.

Zaitsev played a ton of pk. Statistically it was the best thing we did last season. The only thing e did in the top half statistically.

Unless we acquire a player that we feel is a clear upgrade on Zub and pushes every one down, I think it's pretty marginal to just replace Zaitsev.

 

[JD1]

Well, that certainly wasn't clear based on the words that you typed.

It's an ongoing point that's been made

Getting rid of Murray was a homerun. Getting DeBrincat was a homerun. Signing Giroux was a homerun

Where we are now is it's getting harder to push the Dorion is an idiot agenda. I think he had a much larger budget to work with and was able to shop somewhere other than the Dollar Store

He's done well. So all we've got to criticize is the Brown deal. And we're down to the point of needing spreadsheets and capologists to prove a point.

Sad unfortunately

 

[GCK]

Ok but you're arguing against maths here. There's 186 days in a season and the cap is pro rated on days of work. The closer you get to the deadline, the highest AAV you'll be able to afford.

Of course, a team who has $91,292 in cap space (like the Leafs last season) won't be able to afford a highly paid player at the deadline but teams used to have a bit of wiggle room for this but the problem is that more and more teams are completely up against the cap. There's a lot of factors in this, like LTIR as well.

Typo on my part.

Every 1M in maintained cap space equals about 4.75M cap hit at the deadline. However things are not always as they appear.

Every time a player is called up that eats into the 1M. An 800,000 player eats 4,300 each day they are on the roster. That 1M in cap space goes quickly.

Another interesting facet of the cap is LTIR. If a team uses LTIR to get under the cap to open the season then whatever their cap is at that time becomes their new ceiling. This is why you see teams in that situation try to add players to get as close to 81.5 as possible before sending players down the next day. An example:

Team X is 2M over the cap but has a 4M contract they will put on LTIR. If Team X does nothing but place the player on LTIR they would have an effective cap of 79.5M for the season.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Looks like Florida never bothered negotiating with Huberdeau before trading him. I thought only bottom of the barrel GMs like Dorion did that kind of stuff?

 

[Xspyrit]

Typo on my part.

Every 1M in maintained cap space equals about 4.75M cap hit at the deadline. However things are not always as they appear.

Every time a player is called up that eats into the 1M. An 800,000 player eats 4,300 each day they are on the roster. That 1M in cap space goes quickly.

Another interesting facet of the cap is LTIR. If a team uses LTIR to get under the cap to open the season then whatever their cap is at that time becomes their new ceiling. This is why you see teams in that situation try to add players to get as close to 81.5 as possible before sending players down the next day. An example:

Team X is 2M over the cap but has a 4M contract they will put on LTIR. If Team X does nothing but place the player on LTIR they would have an effective cap of 79.5M for the season.

The LTIR part makes it extremely complicated and that's why there is a job for this

It's hard to believe that guys like Oliver Bjorkstrand and Connor Brown are "cap casualties" but here we are. It means that the cap has not been managed carefully somewhere : why the hell did Columbus signed Gudbranson at 4.0 AAV and end up dumping an excellent 2-way player? That was ridiculous and fans have the right to be annoyed/upset.

Here it's different because it looks that we are still on budget during the FYOUS but there's also $5,562,500 in dead cap salary expenditure (+ Zaitsev), which is a lot of money for a team that should be even more careful than others. But yeah we don't have the right to criticize this ownership/management. I can tell you that the people I worked for in the past would have obliterated him/them into space

 

[PlayOn]

Looks like Florida never bothered negotiating with Huberdeau before trading him. I thought only bottom of the barrel GMs like Dorion did that kind of stuff?

Yeah and ultimately Huberdeau isn’t happy. It burns bridges and when you’re not a tax-free, sunshine state that everyone wants to play for you can’t afford to build a bad reputation of communicating poorly with players and give people more reasons not to stay or come. Just because someone else does it doesn’t mean Dorion shouldn’t be criticized for it.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Looks like Florida never bothered negotiating with Huberdeau before trading him. I thought only bottom of the barrel GMs like Dorion did that kind of stuff?

Florida playing a dangerous game with that. Huberdeau signed some pretty nice deals with them over the years, and as soon as his UFA gets close, they toss him.

If I was on the Panthers and my next contract was approaching, no way they'd get any kind of home town discount. Florida and Vegas are quickly turning into really unattractive places to play from a player treatment perspective.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Yeah and ultimately Huberdeau isn’t happy. It burns bridges and when you’re not a tax-free, sunshine state that everyone wants to play for you can’t afford to build a bad reputation of communicating poorly with players and give people more reasons not to stay or come. Just because someone else does it doesn’t mean Dorion shouldn’t be criticized for it.

Agreed, though I his point is more within the context of Zito being heralded as an excellent GM, and Dorion being the dubbed worst in the league on our boards often enough.

It looks a lot more like GMs in general are capable of both good and bad moves. While this has been the summer of Dorion, it also looks to have been a bit of a miss of a summer for Florida. Great news for our division to be honest, and it makes me hopeful that EM really was a hinderance to Dorion’s abilities as GM.

As @JD1 mentioned, amongst others, perhaps the combination of a solid AGM addition, along with Trent, coupled with not having to constantly pick players from the bargain bin, will prove to be a game changer for our GM and team in general.

 

[GCK]

The LTIR part makes it extremely complicated and that's why there is a job for this

It's hard to believe that guys like Oliver Bjorkstrand and Connor Brown are "cap casualties" but here we are. It means that the cap has not been managed carefully somewhere : why the hell did Columbus signed Gudbranson at 4.0 AAV and end up dumping an excellent 2-way player? That was ridiculous and fans have the right to be annoyed/upset.

Here it's different because it looks that we are still on budget during the FYOUS but there's also $5,562,500 in dead cap salary expenditure (+ Zaitsev), which is a lot of money for a team that should be even more careful than others. But yeah we don't have the right to criticize this ownership/management. I can tell you that the people I worked for in the past would have obliterated him/them into space

I’m all for fair critiques. I fully believe Dorion’s overall body of work is grounds for him to be replaced but he hasn’t made a bad move since the offseason began.

1. He qualified the correct players and walked away from the others.

2. He fleeced Toronto on the Murray deal.

3. He bought out 2 more bad contracts.

4. He managed to move Brown without taking money back.

5. He got Norris done early.

6. He massively upgraded the top 6.

When working on a hard ceiling budget wise he needs certainty on committed dollars before adding.

Next is RFAs. Joseph has an arb case so we know that gets done, Branny should be simple and I doubt Formenton gets done until there is clarity unless he just signs his QO.

He has 3 more items that “need” to get done, extend Zub, add top 4 D and move Zaitsev.

Before anyone responds that he caused these issues look up and see my comment on his overall body of work.

 

[PlayOn]

Agreed, though I his point is more within the context of Zito being heralded as an excellent GM, and Dorion being the dubbed worst in the league on our boards often enough.

It looks a lot more like GMs in general are capable of both good and bad moves. While this has been the summer of Dorion, it also looks to have been a bit of a miss of a summer for Florida. Great news for our division to be honest, and it makes me hopeful that EM really was a hinderance to Dorion’s abilities as GM.

As @JD1 mentioned, amongst others, perhaps the combination of a solid AGM addition, along with Trent, coupled with not having to constantly pick players from the bargain bin, will prove to be a game changer for our GM and team in general.

Fair enough, I agree in general. But I think Dorion got criticized because he did it enough times for it to be a pattern. You get the benefit of the doubt the first time around. Another five times and perhaps Zito’s reputation as a good GM falters too.

 

[R2010]

I’m all for fair critiques. I fully believe Dorion’s overall body of work is grounds for him to be replaced but he hasn’t made a bad move since the offseason began.

1. He qualified the correct players and walked away from the others.

2. He fleeced Toronto on the Murray deal.

3. He bought out 2 more bad contracts.

4. He managed to move Brown without taking money back.

5. He got Norris done early.

6. He massively upgraded the top 6.

When working on a hard ceiling budget wise he needs certainty on committed dollars before adding.

Next is RFAs. Joseph has an arb case so we know that gets done, Branny should be simple and I doubt Formenton gets done until there is clarity unless he just signs his QO.

He has 3 more items that “need” to get done, extend Zub, add top 4 D and move Zaitsev.

Before anyone responds that he caused these issues look up and see my comment on his overall body of work.

Only comment is we could be losing a player or two in our top 9 depending on the investigation so Dorion's work is helpful but events outside his control may impact our team unfortunately.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Fair enough, I agree in general. But I think Dorion got criticized because he did it enough times for it to be a pattern. You get the benefit of the doubt the first time around. Another five times and perhaps Zito’s reputation as a good GM falters too.

Oh for sure, though I don’t think the original post we’re taking about commented on Zitos reputation, only criticized the latest move, using Dorion’s poor reputation as the benchmark (tongue in cheek of course) lol!

I mean, I think most of us are pretty happily surprised at PD’s off season, while I know I’m personally also surprised at how bad Floridas off season has looked. To find out that no conversation was had about an extension with Hubs and then a trade out of the blue is pretty low in my opinion.

 

[GCK]

Oh for sure, though I don’t think the original post we’re taking about commented on Zitos reputation, only criticized the latest move, using Dorion’s poor reputation as the benchmark (tongue in cheek of course) lol!

I mean, I think most of us are pretty happily surprised at PD’s off season, while I know I’m personally also surprised at how bad Floridas off season has looked. To find out that no conversation was had about an extension with Hubs and then a trade out of the blue is pretty low in my opinion.

I’m at a loss as to what Zito did wrong with Huberdeau. He was approaching 30 years old, needing a new contract in a year. Zito saw an opportunity to get a 25 year old direct replacement and made the deal. What’s the problem ?

 

[Ice-Tray]

I’m at a loss as to what Zito did wrong with Huberdeau. He was approaching 30 years old, needing a new contract in a year. Zito saw an opportunity to get a 25 year old direct replacement and made the deal. What’s the problem ?

I think it’s because it seems like it was a blindside move for a guy who was a long time core player, and it seems like they gave up a lot for MT without actually making the team better (on paper).

For all the moves Florida made this summer, they may have actually gotten worse.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

I’m at a loss as to what Zito did wrong with Huberdeau. He was approaching 30 years old, needing a new contract in a year. Zito saw an opportunity to get a 25 year old direct replacement and made the deal. What’s the problem ?

The problem is the commodification of it all. It's a business, sure, and trading him makes some business sense. But Huberdeau is still a person who believed himself and his camp to be negotiating a new deal. He probably would've appreciated some communication on that front. Blindsiding a guy who was the heartbeat of your team for a while speaks poorly to how they treat people in their organization. If I'm a player and I hear that kind of thing as more than a one-off incident, I'm wondering how much I'll be valued there.