Around the NHL – Part XL - Mod post page 249 | Page 266 | HFBoards - NHL Message Board and Forum for National Hockey League
Toggle sidebar

Around the NHL – Part XL - Mod post page 249

Status
Not open for further replies.
Really disappointed that the Sabres and Sens can't get out of their own way. They had a chance at a WC and a lot of games in hand on the Piles and blew it. I guess when the games became big they couldn't handle it. Caps are done also. Now just a 3 team race for 2 spots.
 
  • Like
Reactions: I Just Like and Rangers ftw
PuckLuck3043 said:
Really disappointed that the Sabres and Sens can't get out of their own way. They had a chance at a WC and a lot of games in hand on the Piles and blew it. I guess when the games became big they couldn't handle it. Caps are done also. Now just a 3 team race for 2 spots.
Click to expand...
66993997-D25F-4DD9-A2BA-7F6A86961F6D.jpeg


I’m not sure how these models adjust for score effects at all. Seems strange that the xG and “deserve to win” would be so out of whack in a 7-0 blowout, but perhaps the goaltending was just really bad?

Anyway, this Jack Quinn kid is good eh? Buffalo has several really good pieces.
 
Synergy27 said:
View attachment 672433

I’m not sure how these models adjust for score effects at all. Seems strange that the xG and “deserve to win” would be so out of whack in a 7-0 blowout, but perhaps the goaltending was just really bad?

Anyway, this Jack Quinn kid is good eh? Buffalo has several really good pieces.
Click to expand...
Yea, they have some nice pieces but they had 5 games in hand on the Piles and a real chance for a playoff spot for the first time in over a decade and they proceeded to lose 9 of 11.
 
  • Like
Reactions: LeetchisGod and I Just Like
effen said:
A stats class would help out a lot of these assumptions on developmental ability.

They all hire from the same pool. No one is teaching 3 on 2 drills any differently than anyone else. Lotta being fooled by randomness.
Click to expand...
Randomness and also, players I’d argue generally don’t stay with one team their whole career and I’d suggest it’s normal for players to develop to a certain level, then move on to a team that has a spot for them or otherwise is a better fit.
If we’re killing the rangers for Buchnevich breaking out can we praise the rangers for “developing” Panarin?
 
However much having the likes of Zibanejad, Panarin, Kreider etc. may have slowed the development of Lafreniere and Kakko having veteran leadership has helped the Rangers to get back to being a playoff team a lot faster and it is having a stable culture in the locker room. Segueing as will from Henrik to Igor helped for sure too but for all the drooling after the numbers that Stutzle or Zegras are putting up for those teams it could be years still before their teams are playoff teams and for teams without that stability in their locker room getting competitive is one thing but taking that step to the playoffs is another animal beyond all that. It's tough for some very good teams just to get beyond the first round.
 
  • Like
Reactions: The Gloaming, Rangers ftw, Draft Guru and 1 other person
Hire Sather said:
Buffalo has had pieces for a decade.

Hard to shake the losing culture they built over there




Hurts the Devils flipped that game
Click to expand...

Buffalo is going to be an absolute wagon in the next few years. The stink of Eichel is finally gone and they've certainly turned a corner.

They just signed Devon Levi who, if as good as advertised, will be a rock in net for the next decade. Their goaltending this year has been pretty awful.

They got three legit studs in the first round this past year. Pipeline is loaded. So is the talent at the NHL level.

Only a matter of time for that team.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JimmyG89 and NYRFANMANI
Draft Guru said:
Buffalo is going to be an absolute wagon in the next few years. The stink of Eichel is finally gone and they've certainly turned a corner.

They just signed Devon Levi who, if as good as advertised, will be a rock in net for the next decade. Their goaltending this year has been pretty awful.

They got three legit studs in the first round this past year. Pipeline is loaded. So is the talent at the NHL level.

Only a matter of time for that team.
Click to expand...
We'll see. It's been 12 years not making the playoffs. I mean they can't be bad forever right? They had a real shot at making it this year and they absolutely shit the bed losing 9 of 11.
 
Synergy27 said:
View attachment 672433

I’m not sure how these models adjust for score effects at all. Seems strange that the xG and “deserve to win” would be so out of whack in a 7-0 blowout, but perhaps the goaltending was just really bad?

Anyway, this Jack Quinn kid is good eh? Buffalo has several really good pieces.
Click to expand...
Analytics get out of whack in blowouts for a couple of reasons.

1) Goaltending is obviously huge. NHL teams shouldn't score 7 goals and it doesn't matter how good their chances were. Anything over 3.5 is a massive amount. Most great chances still get stopped.

2) You need sustained possession and multiple chances to build up xG. Even on plays where we say the goalie had "no chance," a single shot might be, max, 0.3-0.4 xG. That's arguably a flaw in the stat. I mean, Panarin's goal last night off the Kane feed was an empty net from the crease. There's no reason for that to not be 0.99 xG's right there, but that's another story. I think those plays are also an exception anyway. Suffice to say, a lot of the possessions where you would build up shots and chances and accumulate xG are ending quickly because you scored already.

It was an old, old criticism of corsi back in the day to say "well what if I have less shot attempts because I scored on my first one?" You know what? Eight years later, I think we're finding that this has a lot of merit.

It goes the other way too. Good teams whose weakness is offense (12-14 Kings, Hurricanes the last few years) have over-inflated analytics because it takes them 20 shot attempts to score.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Greg02, TheDirtyH, Synergy27 and 1 other person
I just realized McDavid is living out the Michael Jordan meme....

Auston Matthews took the Hart from him last season, because he scored 60 goals.... McDavid took that personally.

I hope he gets 70, hasn't been done since Mogilny and rookie Selanne in 92-93
 
  • Like
Reactions: Cmox and TheDirtyH
Status
Not open for further replies.

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)

Latest posts

Ad

Ad

Top Bottom