redcard
System Poster
- Mar 12, 2007
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I can't answer that specifically. You'd have to ask Dim Filopovic. I was responding to you saying you didn't know how they track it (manually) and what counts (direct targets, i.e., Roy doesn't get punished for Anderson allowing an entry and vice versa).
It is also worth considering that the Kings are not in the 1-3-1 neutral zone set up on every transition attack against, and I would think it's fair to say it is the exception and not the rule. That only specifically comes into play when the Kings have time to set up because they didn't get a well-timed forechecked and aren't coming out of the other zone in a transition battle. I don't have the actual numbers, but I would venture a guess that the 1-3-1--when there is actually time to set it up--leads to a large number of dump-ins, so its role in the above numbers is likely small.
Because I'm bored I went and watched the first 15 minutes of the first period of Game 1 against Edmonton. My intuition above was correct. The Kings only set up with the 1-3-1 3 times. It led to a dump-in 2 of the 3 times (McDavid was the only one who beat it and he just skated right down the middle of everyone). They could not set up any time at least one forward was even with or behind an Edmonton D in the Edmonton zone. There were a number of rush attempts that looked like this:
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Admittedly a small sample size but I think it's fairly representative of how the game of hockey actually plays out in its chaotic nature. So, I think any concern that the RD are being unfairly punished in this is overblown since (1) the chance to set up the 1-3-1 when the opposing team is coming out of its zone is rare (since it requires every single Kings player to be well on the defensive side of the puck and that just rarely happens in a free-flowing game like hockey), and (2) attacks against the 1-3-1 don't tend to advance further than dumping the puck in from the red line.
Those are certainly good points, but without the data points I'm not sure how to assess how significant that is. 3 instances in 15 minutes is 12 per game, 84 times in the 7 game series. I have no idea how many zone entries he's counting per game, but we played an average of 47:30 at even strength per game throughout the series, so maybe there's 300-400 zone entries? So the 1-3-1 is deployed ~20-28% of the time?
If the results were 2/3 lead to red line dump ins (benefits the LD in this data) and 1/3 McDavid blows by everyone (could penalize the RD at the blue line in this data), that 20% could be more than enough to skew the data.....or it could be irrelevant.
I did find this site that had a similar graph with a few more numbers:
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www.allthreezones.com
This has Roy at a carry against % of 77.42% and Mikey at 53.85% compared to the above graph that has Roy at ~65% and Mikey at ~35%. Its the same story but shows there's quite a bit of subjectivity between the two stat takers. But what also interests me is that they have stat for Entries with Chances allowed/60 that has Roy at 3.027 and Mikey at 4.362. Which, if I understand it correctly, shows that although Mikey has a lower % of zone entries allowed, he's still giving up more chances than Roy, despite Roy allowing players to enter the zone.
I could guess that Mikey is standing up, more likely to prevent a zone entry, but also more likely to concede a chance when beat. While Roy is containing, allowing the entry, but preventing the chance. I would expect both of these results given their respective roles.
I don't know. I love Mikey, not trying to drag him down or anything, just trying to decide how much weight to actually put into these stats.