Around the league part 2

[KingsFan7824]

Just my opinion but i belive the draft is almost a total crapshoot. We needed a d man and got forbort as an example there are better ones. Futa was at the end of his tenure at the kings arguably the most elgible candidate as a new gm league wide.

Of course it is. That's why saying the new braintrust ran Futa off and all of a sudden the Kings suck at drafting is a little odd. That's not true. Other than Doughty, and an argument can certainly be made for Voynov, the Kings didn't win the Cup due to much of the drafting done by anything post-Taylor. DL inherited Kopitar and Brown, and Bernier was drafted after Quick, because nobody knew Quick would be Quick.

 

[chris kontos]

response to the above#2051
the original reply was in response to drafting. i want to add drafting and development. nobody expected our #1 goaltender prospect from that time or voynov would start beating bloody thier significant others either.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Of course it is. That's why saying the new braintrust ran Futa off and all of a sudden the Kings suck at drafting is a little odd. That's not true. Other than Doughty, and an argument can certainly be made for Voynov, the Kings didn't win the Cup due to much of the drafting done by anything post-Taylor. DL inherited Kopitar and Brown, and Bernier was drafted after Quick, because nobody knew Quick would be Quick.

The DL teams were built primarily through shrewd trades and mid-level free agent signings. But make no mistake, even if Taylor drafted Kopitar/Brown/Quick, Lombardi created the environment in which those players could mature and slowly take ownership of the team. Look at Brown's situation and position on the team directly before and after DL was hired. You have to give DL at least some credit there as an executive.

You could also argue that DL's picks/acquisitions directly contributed to his ability to trade for critical players. Patrick O'Sullivan allowed him to get Justin Williams. Brayden Schenn allowed him to get Richards. Johnson for Carter. Etc.

 

[lumbergh]

Anderson ranks 6th in defensive impact amongst all dmen by this formula.

What formula is this?

 

[BringTheReign]

What formula is this?

The Athletic's new offensive and defensive rating stat. It's a weighting of basic and advanced stats which is then normalized to league percentile.

Introducing the 'new' NHL stats fans should know: Offensive and Defensive Rating

Those changes in 2019 improved the model immensely, but they arguably didn’t go far enough when it comes to valuing skater defense. And that’s why we’re here today with Net Rating which is essentially a rebranding of GSVA — one that simply separates the model into two distinct parts: offense and defense. Any metric revolving around offense goes into Offensive Rating and anything defensive goes into Defensive Rating.

Offensive Rating: A weighted combination of goals, primary assists, secondary assists, individual expected goals, faceoffs, penalties drawn, expected goals for impact at five-on-five, goals for impact at five-on-five, power-play goal impact and usage.

Defensive Rating: A weighted combination of blocked shots, faceoffs, penalties taken, expected goals against impact at five-on-five, goals against impact at five-on-five, penalty kill impact and usage.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

The Athletic's new offensive and defensive rating stat. It's a weighting of basic and advanced stats which is then normalized to league percentile.

Introducing the 'new' NHL stats fans should know: Offensive and Defensive Rating

The higher weighting of actual results is the most interesting change to me:

Offensive Rating: A weighted combination of goals, primary assists, secondary assists, individual expected goals, faceoffs, penalties drawn, expected goals for impact at five-on-five, goals for impact at five-on-five, power-play goal impact and usage.

Defensive Rating: A weighted combination of blocked shots, faceoffs, penalties taken, expected goals against impact at five-on-five, goals against impact at five-on-five, penalty kill impact and usage.

Everything above is weighted almost the same as before. Individual metrics carry the same weight and the ratio between individual and on-ice impact also stays the same. But the ratio of expected to actual goals has changed as actual goals have become more important and predictive as goals per game has increased.

 

[BringTheReign]

The higher weighting of actual results is the most interesting change to me:

There's also an interesting blurb talking specifically about the Kings and how the increase in defensive weighting aligns the model better with their actual results.

GSVA thinks the Penguins are better than the Kings and their expected goal differential is indeed higher (mostly due to Pittsburgh’s strong priors and poor puck luck this season). Net Rating instead leans toward the Kings, who are a much stronger defensive team.

 

[KingsFan7824]

The DL teams were built primarily through shrewd trades and mid-level free agent signings. But make no mistake, even if Taylor drafted Kopitar/Brown/Quick, Lombardi created the environment in which those players could mature and slowly take ownership of the team. Look at Brown's situation and position on the team directly before and after DL was hired. You have to give DL at least some credit there as an executive.

You could also argue that DL's picks/acquisitions directly contributed to his ability to trade for critical players. Patrick O'Sullivan allowed him to get Justin Williams. Brayden Schenn allowed him to get Richards. Johnson for Carter. Etc.

Did they take ownership of the team? Last I checked, our complaints for the last 9 years is that the core 4 didn't have what it took to take ownership once all the real leaders left. DL even took Brown's C away.

Anyway, we were talking about how the good ol' boys that came after DL suck at drafting, but the competence era wasn't all that great at the draft table.

I just think the Cups mask all the ups and downs of the DL era. Prior to 2012, we must have been having all the same conversations we have now about the Blake era, but winning cures all. It doesn't matter that DL lost a #4 overall pick to waivers. We just always go back to all the positives. We turn everything into a good thing, because they ended up winning. Blake hasn't won yet, so we twist things to the negative. Yes, Schenn produced Richards, and then on Feb 23rd, 2012, the Kings were 9th in the West. That was a contender year, and 75% of the way into the season, they were a middle of the pack team with a negative goal differential. To say the plan was working up to that point would be a lie. They were not planning on being that average.

 

[Schmooley]

I just think the Cups mask all the ups and downs of the DL era.

Well of course it does. So if Blake wins all his bad moves will be overshadowed by the good he did.
But he hasnt won. So when you go to bat for him and constantly dog Lombardi it doesnt make sense.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Well of course it does. So if Blake wins all his bad moves will be overshadowed by the good he did.
But he hasnt won. So when you go to bat for him and constantly dog Lombardi it doesnt make sense.

I don't dog DL. I love what DL did. To this day I am still pro-Lucic trade. I don't care what they gave up, or how many playoff wins they didn't get. That, or something like it, was the only thing DL was going to do. They weren't going to start rebuilding. Trying to win as many Cups as quick as possible, and you have to try to take advantage of the last year of Kopitar's previous deal. To do anything else would be criminal. I'm still pro-Sekera trade. Of course you make that trade with the "just get in" DL/Sutter Kings on a streak. They just went on the most ridiculous run in playoff history a few months before that trade. How would you not try to give the defending champs the best chance you can give them to win again?

The only thing I do with DL is try to bring back what we must have been talking about prior to the 2012 playoffs. It's been a long time, and I've only gotten older, but I know we were obsessed with guys like Moulson, and how he was a goal scorer, and the Kings needed a goal scorer, and how do you just let him get away.

With Blake, I'm not going to bat for him, I'm saying let's see what happens with the team he builds. When he gets fired, and we finish that chapter in the book, we have a full picture of that story. Then we'll know what worked and what didn't.

 

[Schmooley]

With Blake, I'm not going to bat for him, I'm saying let's see what happens with the team he builds. When he gets fired, and we finish that chapter in the book, we have a full picture of that story. Then we'll know what worked and what didn't.

Yea I agree. Dont love everything hes done especially his rebuild and development habits but Im looking forward to the playoffs and as a fan I appreciate he has delivered meaningful games this time of year. Its fun watching when the games are intense.

 

[Herby]

They didn’t add enough great players to keep it going beyond the small cup window, which was largely built on DT picks (3 of the 4 best players) and DL trades. Richards fell off the face of the Earth and while Carter replaced him, the same issues pre-Carter on the wing came back. They completely flushed multiple high picks down the toilet, but they were able to build around what DT had drafted and then most importantly they drafted a superstar player themselves. That is the big difference here, Lombardi’s most important pick produced a plug and play star and that made up for one of the worst picks in team history (Hickey). Blake’s most important pick has been a huge disappointment and the player he took him over is a similar caliber player to what Doughty was, a plug and play star. Hickey became a footnote in history because Of Doughty, the same would happen with Turcotte if Byfield were a DD caliber player.

Had DL drafted Bogosian instead of Doughty there are no banners, probably not even any playoff appearances and DL is probably fired and he is considered one of the worst GM’s on the level of McMaster. Instead he hit his most important pick out of the park and is considered the best GM in team history. That is why it’s just puzzling to me that people are not more concerned with QB or think people who are concerned are overreacting. If QB is Bogosian and Stutzle is Doughty there may be no recovering from it, long-term.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Did they take ownership of the team? Last I checked, our complaints for the last 9 years is that the core 4 didn't have what it took to take ownership once all the real leaders left. DL even took Brown's C away.

Anyway, we were talking about how the good ol' boys that came after DL suck at drafting, but the competence era wasn't all that great at the draft table.

I just think the Cups mask all the ups and downs of the DL era. Prior to 2012, we must have been having all the same conversations we have now about the Blake era, but winning cures all. It doesn't matter that DL lost a #4 overall pick to waivers. We just always go back to all the positives. We turn everything into a good thing, because they ended up winning. Blake hasn't won yet, so we twist things to the negative. Yes, Schenn produced Richards, and then on Feb 23rd, 2012, the Kings were 9th in the West. That was a contender year, and 75% of the way into the season, they were a middle of the pack team with a negative goal differential. To say the plan was working up to that point would be a lie. They were not planning on being that average.

You’re exactly right. Winning cures all. And Blake has won nothing.

 

[King'sPawn]

That is why it’s just puzzling to me that people are not more concerned with QB or think people who are concerned are overreacting. If QB is Bogosian and Stutzle is Doughty there may be no recovering from it, long-term.

I think most understand the concern to a degree. They just know that there's still time for Byfield to reach a finished product.

The biggest issue are the times people say "Byfield does nothing, will do nothing, and will be a bust" just because his goal total is inadequate.

 

[Herby]

I think most understand the concern to a degree. They just know that there's still time for Byfield to reach a finished product.

The biggest issue are the times people say "Byfield does nothing, will do nothing, and will be a bust" just because his goal total is inadequate.

I’m not completely writing off QB, I still see a potential PLD type player. But is that enough? Especially if you are potentially getting anywhere from nothing to a bottom six energy guy from the other high pick.

But the “well he will turn out just like Tage Thompson” stuff is far from a certainty. People seem to always look to Thompson but ignore the guys who struggled in their first 3 years and just never became good. Using history and guys who had similar starts to their career, there is certainly more of a likelihood that QB is a bust than he is a player as good as Tage Thompson has become.

This is what bothered me about the decision to go for it before last season and not try and stockpile more young assets with high picks last year and this year. You had at the time, basically nothing as far as proven young assets, which was a far cry from when Lombardi turned the page on the rebuild (which IMO was the Ryan Smyth trade). They had Kopitar, Doughty, Quick, Johnson, Simmonds, Voynov and Schenn. They no longer needed to add more young pieces, if anything it gave them the opportunity to trade some for older guys, which they did for MR and JC. With this rebuild we have nothing set in stone as far as youth. Byfield has been a disappointment (albeit with some upside), Turcotte has been one of the worst top 5 picks in recent memory, Clark has a handful of NHL games, we are all optimistic but he’s not a locked in star like 11 and 8 were. And instead of filling organizational holes through the pipeline like most successful teams have done, they have traded more 1st rounders, it’s like taking a cash advance on your CC at the casino.

I just feel like I’ve seen this script before, with the turn of the century Kings, who were constructed similarly, but never won anything.

 

[BigKing]

He was head of amateur scouting from the 08 draft to the 14 draft. Other than the two top 5 picks they had, at least one of which was a no brainer(and if Bogosian was a possibility instead, that's not really an argument for competence), is there a ton to show for those drafts?

One of the arguments we have for why the Kings fell as quickly as they rose, is that they didn't have enough talent to replace all the vets DL brought in to win once they got hurt, aged out, or retired. 08-14 are basically the drafts that didn't replenish the roster.

Voynov. Pearson. Toffoli.

Key contributors to Cups.

Lombardi drafted the first 40 goal scorer for the Kings since '94. Pretty funny. Toffoli still crushing it too.

 

[KINGS17]

The DL teams were built primarily through shrewd trades and mid-level free agent signings. But make no mistake, even if Taylor drafted Kopitar/Brown/Quick, Lombardi created the environment in which those players could mature and slowly take ownership of the team. Look at Brown's situation and position on the team directly before and after DL was hired. You have to give DL at least some credit there as an executive.

You could also argue that DL's picks/acquisitions directly contributed to his ability to trade for critical players. Patrick O'Sullivan allowed him to get Justin Williams. Brayden Schenn allowed him to get Richards. Johnson for Carter. Etc.

...and Dean did draft Schenn and Johnson after all. A player is an asset. You don't get Richards or Carter without having done something correctly in the draft.

You also don't turn O'Sullivan into William unless you have the balls to trade the team's best forward and goal scorer, in Demitra, your 1'first day" on the job. I don't think BLuc would have ever made that kind of move.

 

[KingsHockey24]

Winnipeg in 6
LA in 6
Colorado in 5
Dallas in 7
Boston in 5
Tampa in 7
NYI in 5
NYR in 4

Posting this now so when I'm right you guys have to get me lots of money.

 

[Nasti]

...and Dean did draft Schenn and Johnson after all. A player is an asset. You don't get Richards or Carter without having done something correctly in the draft.

You also don't turn O'Sullivan into William unless you have the balls to trade the team's best forward and goal scorer, in Demitra, your 1'first day" on the job. I don't think BLuc would have ever made that kind of move.

Technically, he traded for Johnson. Belanger and Gleason went the other way.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

I’m not completely writing off QB, I still see a potential PLD type player. But is that enough? Especially if you are potentially getting anywhere from nothing to a bottom six energy guy from the other high pick.

But the “well he will turn out just like Tage Thompson” stuff is far from a certainty. People seem to always look to Thompson but ignore the guys who struggled in their first 3 years and just never became good. Using history and guys who had similar starts to their career, there is certainly more of a likelihood that QB is a bust than he is a player as good as Tage Thompson has become.

This is what bothered me about the decision to go for it before last season and not try and stockpile more young assets with high picks last year and this year. You had at the time, basically nothing as far as proven young assets, which was a far cry from when Lombardi turned the page on the rebuild (which IMO was the Ryan Smyth trade). They had Kopitar, Doughty, Quick, Johnson, Simmonds, Voynov and Schenn. They no longer needed to add more young pieces, if anything it gave them the opportunity to trade some for older guys, which they did for MR and JC. With this rebuild we have nothing set in stone as far as youth. Byfield has been a disappointment (albeit with some upside), Turcotte has been one of the worst top 5 picks in recent memory, Clark has a handful of NHL games, we are all optimistic but he’s not a locked in star like 11 and 8 were. And instead of filling organizational holes through the pipeline like most successful teams have done, they have traded more 1st rounders, it’s like taking a cash advance on your CC at the casino.

I just feel like I’ve seen this script before, with the turn of the century Kings, who were constructed similarly, but never won anything.

100%. I said the same thing to my wife the other night about the similarities to the early 2000s Kings.

This is why I’m so critical and negative about the team. I just think it was such a mistake for Blake to have his Bush on a super carrier moment after last season.

Even by his own history, he should have taken pause. He was gung ho on contention after 17/18, which is what prompted the Kovalchuk signing.

As @KingsFan7824 correctly points out, it’s not like DL didn’t stumble before 2012. But he definitely had the right philosophy and timing on when to start parting with assets for outside help.

Blake has gotten the slightest whiff of a playoff team and immediately started burning assets. TWICE.

 

[KINGS17]

Technically, he traded for Johnson. Belanger and Gleason went the other way.

You're right my bad. He traded for Johnson while he was still at Michigan.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Okay but we keep saying DL turned Schenn into richards etc but that's kind of the issue

yes results matter but

Schenn turned into a guy signed long term to solve an issue

So far blake has turned a franchise legend and a 1st into a 2nd pairing LHD and a goalie who both MAY be gone this offseason

So even before 'results' we're left with prayers

At least with Faber and Ohgren --> Fiala it was a 'solution' with term (negotiated) no matter how you feel about it

I think it's fair to worry that Blake put the cart before the horse with these current trades if 1. the Kings don't win the Cup and 2. if either/both guys walk because then we will be right back at square 1 or arguably worse with the SAME problems. I don't think it's fair to compare that to DL for that major reason, and Sekera and Lucic came while the window was FIRMLY open and we were actually competing, not 'hoping' to. It's not a good comparison.

 

[chris kontos]

Dean Lombardi is a lawyer and an experienced nhl management executive. Blake is a jock that works for a high school dropout. i hope things turn out well.

 

[kingsfan28]

Okay but we keep saying DL turned Schenn into richards etc but that's kind of the issue

yes results matter but

Schenn turned into a guy signed long term to solve an issue

So far blake has turned a franchise legend and a 1st into a 2nd pairing LHD and a goalie who both MAY be gone this offseason

So even before 'results' we're left with prayers

At least with Faber and Ohgren --> Fiala it was a 'solution' with term (negotiated) no matter how you feel about it

I think it's fair to worry that Blake put the cart before the horse with these current trades if 1. the Kings don't win the Cup and 2. if either/both guys walk because then we will be right back at square 1 or arguably worse with the SAME problems. I don't think it's fair to compare that to DL for that major reason, and Sekera and Lucic came while the window was FIRMLY open and we were actually competing, not 'hoping' to. It's not a good comparison.

Fair points, but with the last two deals we have two guys we needed, especially the LHD, they are the hardest to find. We've been looking for years and now got one, a very good one, although with term would've been nice, they can resign. and he won't miss 25 pct of the season either. The only other option was Chychrun, the guy OTT got for 12 whole games before he got hurt again and out for the season. Imagine giving up all that stuff ARZ wanted for him for 12 games, and even with his remaining deal hoping to get 90-100 games out of him. Talk about prayers. I may be one of the few optimist here, but every contender was right where the Kings are now, making moves to get better. Will it pay off, who knows, but they're trying.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Fair points, but with the last two deals we have two guys we needed, especially the LHD, they are the hardest to find. We've been looking for years and now got one, a very good one, although with term would've been nice, they can resign. and he won't miss 25 pct of the season either. The only other option was Chychrun, the guy OTT got for 12 whole games before he got hurt again and out for the season. Imagine giving up all that stuff ARZ wanted for him for 12 games, and even with his remaining deal hoping to get 90-100 games out of him. Talk about prayers. I may be one of the few optimist here, but every contender was right where the Kings are now, making moves to get better. Will it pay off, who knows, but they're trying.

That's not true, though. There were PLENTY moved at the deadline--including Ekholm, and Ghost for a 3rd, and more--plenty traded early in the season for not nearly as much, and plenty signed in the offseason.

That's my major issue. Indecision is what made this so relatively expensive and risky. I agree its' positive that they're 'trying' but again they're self-inflicted issues AND they're not just suddenly popping up, plenty of us have been noting about the LHD and G situations since summer 2021. It makes it look panicky and against whatever plan Blake had as he's been so ultra-conservative and thoughtful with assets until this point.