Around the league part 2

[johnjm22]

Of course -- however the Oilers need 80 points in their next 62 games to hit 95.

It's doable, but not likely.

That's a .645 P%

Their P% each of the last two years:
.665
.634

They can do it, but it's hard unless one of their goalies gets into a groove.

 

[Fishhead]

That's a .645 P%

Their P% each of the last two years:
.665
.634

They can do it, but it's hard unless one of their goalies gets into a groove.

It will be a challenge. They have the offense, but the back end is their issue. Not a lot of room for error. They play some tough teams coming up, but they do get a little help with b2b here and there.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

That's a .645 P%

Their P% each of the last two years:
.665
.634

They can do it, but it's hard unless one of their goalies gets into a groove.

Again, highly unlikely -- there's a reason why they say if your team is out of a playoff spot come Thanksgiving, they don't make it. It's because 75% of the time, that holds true. And EDM wasn't just outside come Thanksgiving -- they were way down on the bottom.

 

[Sol]

YOu may be thinking of both his and Dom's preseason models, which are always down on the kings

this one takes current play and adds simply 'league average' goaltending and shooting (thus it flatters the Kings vs. the preaseason projection)

You’re right I was mixing them up. Thanks.

It will be a challenge. They have the offense, but the back end is their issue. Not a lot of room for error. They play some tough teams coming up, but they do get a little help with b2b here and there.

I think a team with McDavid and Draisaitl should be a team that goes against the grain in terms of either the team sucks when they’re off or a sucky team can be great when they’re on. It’s hard to qualify which Edmonton shows up but I think they will go on a tear most likely and be in the playoffs.

 

[johnjm22]

It will be a challenge. They have the offense, but the back end is their issue. Not a lot of room for error. They play some tough teams coming up, but they do get a little help with b2b here and there.

They're pretty good defensively.

It's a PDO problem.

 

[kingsholygrail]

The question is, who falls out of position to even let them get into one?

 

[Lt Dan]

The question is, who falls out of position to even let them get into one?

Vancouver

 

[BigBrown]

The Oilers will benefit from the wild card race in the west being particularly weak so far this season. The second wild card spot going by P% is on an 82 point pace. If my lazy math is correct the Oilers would need to play 0.548 hockey the rest of the way to make 83 points. Seems pretty doable to me.

And after the Blues went from being last in the league on January 2nd (!) to winning the cup in the same season I'm not counting anybody out this early.

With the Kings luck they'll win the division and somehow still have to play the Oilers in the first round.

 

[Brodeur]

And after the Blues went from being last in the league on January 2nd (!) to winning the cup in the same season I'm not counting anybody out this early.

I still laugh about the Sabres fan who jinxed himself on the main board. Buffalo owned St. Louis' 1st from the O'Reilly trade and the Sabres were in a playoff position in the first half. He didn't realize the pick was top 10 protected, but he posted something like "Can the Sabres win the Cup and pick #1?"

Blues caught fire and the Sabres went 11-26-4 in the second half.

 

[Bandit]

The Oilers will benefit from the wild card race in the west being particularly weak so far this season. The second wild card spot going by P% is on an 82 point pace. If my lazy math is correct the Oilers would need to play 0.548 hockey the rest of the way to make 83 points. Seems pretty doable to me.

And after the Blues went from being last in the league on January 2nd (!) to winning the cup in the same season I'm not counting anybody out this early.

With the Kings luck they'll win the division and somehow still have to play the Oilers in the first round.

Why would you assume that the oilers will be the only team to pick up the pace from here on out? It would be hilarious if they missed, but I don’t REALLY care all that much. Doesn’t change the fact that the odds and history are against them. Not many teams miss the playoffs that are in a spot by American Thanksgiving, and that was 5 days ago.

I mean sure every once in a while a miracle happens, but it ain’t likely.

 

[Fishhead]

They're pretty good defensively.

It's a PDO problem.

I'm not so sure. Look at their defensive shot maps from this year and last:


Last season they didn't allow much of anything from dangerous areas, just right around the league average and substantially below in the slot.

This year they are still good in the slot, but are allowing many more shots around the dots and down low in somewhat dangerous areas. Note that xGA/60 is almost identical. It's the biggest shortcoming of the stat, it over weights the slot shots. Sure, they are more dangerous, but someone right at the dots or down low off to the side is pretty dangerous too.

Those low shots are usually rebounds, so that means the goalies aren't absorbing pucks and the D isn't tying people up or clearing them. Probably why they are tied with SJ for the most high-danger goals allowed while being top-10 in preventing them. It's not bad luck, it's breakdowns down low.

 

[kingsfan28]

Another coach bites the dust. That's 3, two were coaching in last years playoffs.

 

[SaltyElkHunter]

The Oilers are a good team.

Sometimes are team that goes through adversity during the regular season and gets things together in time for the playoffs is a very dangerous team.

Blues come to mind

 

[Fishhead]

Another coach bites the dust. That's 3, two were coaching in last years playoffs.

I can see why Evason was fired. I mean, he's the one who bought out close to $15M in cap space, leaving zero roster depth. Right?

 

[kingsfan28]

That's a .645 P%

Their P% each of the last two years:
.665
.634

They can do it, but it's hard unless one of their goalies gets into a groove.

And can all of a sudden play defense. Unless there is a trade that gets them a much better guy in net, it ain't happening. 150,000k in cap space won't get you much.

 

[kingskring]

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Korpisalo losing his shit back there

you chased the cash buddy, make peace with it

 

[Gjwrams]

Why, lol

That might be one of the best announcements ever. He was just disgusted with the lot of them. “Get off my f***ing ice”

and all started by a Thachuk douchebag

 

[Fishhead]

Korpisalo losing his shit back there

you chased the cash buddy, make peace with it

Ottawa is terrible right now, Smith is going to be the next one to go.

He's not the biggest problem, though. That is their defense plays an offensive style and 90% of the time their forwards have no interest in backchecking. The concept of team defense is non-existent there.

They got a lot of nice young pieces locked up, but the mix isn't there. Still time for their young core to figure it out, but if they don't sort the team play aspect they'll be the Oilers v2.

 

[Maynard]

I still laugh about the Sabres fan who jinxed himself on the main board. Buffalo owned St. Louis' 1st from the O'Reilly trade and the Sabres were in a playoff position in the first half. He didn't realize the pick was top 10 protected, but he posted something like "Can the Sabres win the Cup and pick #1?"

Blues caught fire and the Sabres went 11-26-4 in the second half.

So it was the opposite of “I’m calling it now”.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Ottawa is terrible right now, Smith is going to be the next one to go.

He's not the biggest problem, though. That is their defense plays an offensive style and 90% of the time their forwards have no interest in backchecking. The concept of team defense is non-existent there.

They got a lot of nice young pieces locked up, but the mix isn't there. Still time for their young core to figure it out, but if they don't sort the team play aspect they'll be the Oilers v2.

Oh, I'm not blaming it on Korpi

just getting a good laugh at his 'what the f*** are you idiots doing' body language, like what did you think you signed up for

 

[johnjm22]

And can all of a sudden play defense. Unless there is a trade that gets them a much better guy in net, it ain't happening. 150,000k in cap space won't get you much.

I'm not so sure. Look at their defensive shot maps from this year and last:


Last season they didn't allow much of anything from dangerous areas, just right around the league average and substantially below in the slot.

View attachment 774151


This year they are still good in the slot, but are allowing many more shots around the dots and down low in somewhat dangerous areas. Note that xGA/60 is almost identical. It's the biggest shortcoming of the stat, it over weights the slot shots. Sure, they are more dangerous, but someone right at the dots or down low off to the side is pretty dangerous too.
View attachment 774153

Those low shots are usually rebounds, so that means the goalies aren't absorbing pucks and the D isn't tying people up or clearing them. Probably why they are tied with SJ for the most high-danger goals allowed while being top-10 in preventing them. It's not bad luck, it's breakdowns down low.

They're 10th in the league in expected goals against (all situations).

They were 10th in the league in expected goals against (all situations) last year.

After the Ekholm trade last year, their GAA was 2.8. That's pretty good.

They need goaltending. They play plenty competent defense.

 

[Fishhead]

That might be one of the best announcements ever. He was just disgusted with the lot of them. “Get off my f***ing ice”

and all started by Thachuk douchebag

Then he tossed another pair not long after for starting shit. Shortly after that, Zub followed up with the defensive play of the year.

 

[Fishhead]

Oh, I'm not blaming it on Korpi

just getting a good laugh at his 'what the f*** are you idiots doing' body language, like what did you think you signed up for

He probably figured "Young team, on the upswing, the sky is the limit!". Didn't realize he'd be hung out like the laundry more often than not.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

MacEusless getting tossed now for barely making contact and definitely not even bothering Tkachuk

what a waste of space that guy turned out to be