Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

[Marioesque]

Toronto's been leaning enough on Brodie stabilizing their blueline that I don't think they're in a hurry to give him up.

Or that we'd want D back when the reason to trade Peeke would be to alleviate defense logjam

 

[VT]

Peeke is a player who can't improvise. He reminds me of a computer program that if you don't type one letter, one code, it won't work. If Babcock can do that, he'll be useful. Otherwise, he'll be terror to his own goalies.

 

[domi28]

Yeah I'd like Peeke for Brodie, but I don't see it from Toronto's end.

FWIW I think Brodie would play RD here, even though we have more depth on that side, he's good and they'll want him playing bigger minutes opposite Werenski or Provorov. That and the FO likes Bean and I doubt they're any more willing to scratch him than they are to scratch Boqvist or another right sider.

I think the more important factor might be Babcock and the system he is likely to run. He might be an old school dinosaur hard-ass coach but he's not a grind out 2-1 games defense at all cost coach. If he keeps a similar style to what he ran in Toronto guys like Bean and Boqvist are going to dress a lot more games and get more minutes than guys like Peeke and Gudbranson. He likes puck possession guys which to me screams Bean and Boqvist. I was pleasantly surprised to see Jake Gardiner logging 20+/- minutes during his time in Toronto with Babcock when they had Peeke/Gudbranson type options that just didn't dress much. Gardiner wasn't going to clear anyone out of the crease or dig pucks out of the corners but he would at least try to get in the way. When they got the puck Gardiner was great at helping the team maintain possession and set up the forwards.

 

[Xoggz22]

I don't think the CBJ would take Brodie in a straight swap (I haven't seen the proposed deal) and Brodie will be making $7.5MM in real dollars on the last year of his deal this year. Could be a good chip to move at the deadline if brought in but I don't think CBJ does it without something else coming too.

 

[VT]

Toronto has major salary cap issues. Stupid Dubas contract, which makes Toronto have a weak third line, the first two lines have shown nothing in the PO. That's why they'll want to trade Brodie, while keeping no part of the salary cap. Except they have a pretty big problem, Brodie on the M-NTC.
And even if he agrees to trade to us, I see no reason to help them. Especially if he's not a player we need.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Toronto's been leaning enough on Brodie stabilizing their blueline that I don't think they're in a hurry to give him up.

i'm sure they like the player, but what other option do they have to get cap compliant?

they're $13m over the cap and have $10m of LTIR candidates. here is everyone on their roster currently making more than $2m.

definitely not going anywhere:

• matthews (11.6)
• tavares (11)
• marner (10.9)
• rielly (7.5)
• samsonov (3.5)

just signed:

• bertuzzi (5.5)
• domi (3)
• klingberg (4.1)
• mccabe (2)
• kampf (2.4)

the rest:

• nylander (6.9)
• brodie (5)

brodie is valuable to toronto, but not nearly as valuable as nylander. they have a lot of money coming off the books after this year. reading the tea leaves (or leafs in this case) it seems like they'll try to lock up nylander, leaving brodie as the guy they have to move.

 

[summer tooth]

This Johnson - Fantilli - Marchenko line is sounding pretty juicy

 

[Cowumbus]

i'm sure they like the player, but what other option do they have to get cap compliant?

they're $13m over the cap and have $10m of LTIR candidates. here is everyone on their roster currently making more than $2m.

definitely not going anywhere:

• matthews (11.6)
• tavares (11)
• marner (10.9)
• rielly (7.5)
• samsonov (3.5)

just signed:

• bertuzzi (5.5)
• domi (3)
• klingberg (4.1)
• mccabe (2)
• kampf (2.4)

the rest:

• nylander (6.9)
• brodie (5)

brodie is valuable to toronto, but not nearly as valuable as nylander. they have a lot of money coming off the books after this year. reading the tea leaves (or leafs in this case) it seems like they'll try to lock up nylander, leaving brodie as the guy they have to move.

It would be stupid for us to do that. Just trade Peeke for picks.

 

[EDM]

Right now this is all random speculation. Nothing really matters until Babs gets on the ice with these guys and gets a good look at what he has here

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Right now this is all random speculation. Nothing really matters until Babs gets on the ice with these guys and gets a good look at what he has here

In fairness to us, it’s always that. But you’re right that we have nothing that shapes our idea of what Babcock thinks of anybody.

 

[614 CBJ]

This Johnson - Fantilli - Marchenko line is sounding pretty juicy

I think that would be asking too much from Fantilli in the D zone this year

way too much, IMO

 

[VT]

Seeing Laine and Gaudreau in the same line makes me want to cry. I don't know, is that like a mantra? Hindus have, for example, "Om Shanti, Om Shanti Om Shanti", we have "Gaudreau with Laine, Gaudreau with Laine together". And after all, Laine played better without Gaudreau but he had good chemistry with Marchenko and Chinakhov, for that matter on the wings. Btw, Voronkov played very good with skill players in Ak Bars minimum.

 

[NotCommitted]

Seeing Laine and Gaudreau in the same line makes me want to cry. I don't know, is that like a mantra? Hindus have, for example, "Om Shanti, Om Shanti Om Shanti", we have "Gaudreau with Laine, Gaudreau with Laine together". And after all, Laine played better without Gaudreau but he had good chemistry with Marchenko and Chinakhov, for that matter on the wings. Btw, Voronkov played very good with skill players in Ak Bars minimum.

It's not a mantra, it's the best fwd pair they have. I can see arguments for splitting them, but I don't understand why you would hate them together. Laine w/Marchenko had a lot of the time sheltered usage. Also it's not really Laine I'm worried about, Gaudreau needs someone skilled to play with to get the best out of him, I think besides Laine Johnson is a good fit but limited sample.

Voronkov/Marchenko/Chinakhov are all unproven. I would hope at least two of them play top6 quality already but who knows. I think with line combos a lot will depend on who play center and how well...

 

[cbjthrowaway]

don't make me tap the sign

(for those who don't know, i printed out a huge sign that shows laine and gaudreau's stats with and without each other last year)

 

[VT]

It's not a mantra, it's the best fwd pair they have. I can see arguments for splitting them, but I don't understand why you would hate them together. Laine w/Marchenko had a lot of the time sheltered usage. Also it's not really Laine I'm worried about, Gaudreau needs someone skilled to play with to get the best out of him, I think besides Laine Johnson is a good fit but limited sample.

Voronkov/Marchenko/Chinakhov are all unproven. I would hope at least two of them play top6 quality already but who knows. I think with line combos a lot will depend on who play center and how well...

We need a minimum of two strong lines with players who can lead them, not one line and pray that the others at least somehow work.

 

[CBJx614]

It's not a mantra, it's the best fwd pair they have. I can see arguments for splitting them, but I don't understand why you would hate them together. Laine w/Marchenko had a lot of the time sheltered usage. Also it's not really Laine I'm worried about, Gaudreau needs someone skilled to play with to get the best out of him, I think besides Laine Johnson is a good fit but limited sample.

Voronkov/Marchenko/Chinakhov are all unproven. I would hope at least two of them play top6 quality already but who knows. I think with line combos a lot will depend on who play center and how well...

Johnson and Gaudreau are too similar of players to be on the same line IMO.

 

[majormajor]

Seeing Laine and Gaudreau in the same line makes me want to cry. I don't know, is that like a mantra? Hindus have, for example, "Om Shanti, Om Shanti Om Shanti", we have "Gaudreau with Laine, Gaudreau with Laine together". And after all, Laine played better without Gaudreau but he had good chemistry with Marchenko and Chinakhov, for that matter on the wings. Btw, Voronkov played very good with skill players in Ak Bars minimum.

Of the six Jackets forwards that Laine played 70+ minutes with, Laine scored at the highest rate with Johnny Gaudreau.

don't make me tap the sign

(for those who don't know, i printed out a huge sign that shows laine and gaudreau's stats with and without each other last year)

I must have missed it. Please tap the sign again.

 

[Doggy]

It appears to me The Athletic allows non subscribers to participate in their annual front office survey (rate your favorite team's front office or as many teams as you’d like). As a non subscriber you won’t be able to access the results yourself but you know we subscribers always share this kind of stuff with the rest of you.

Link to single team survey: NHL Front Office Confidence Survey (One page)

Link to 32 team survey:

NHL Front Office Confidence Survey (One page)

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docs.google.com

 

[VT]

Of the six Jackets forwards that Laine played 70+ minutes with, Laine scored at the highest rate with Johnny Gaudreau.



I must have missed it. Please tap the sign again.

If you look at the other stats, that's not the case.
-----
But what I want to explain. Look at Florida, Vegas, Tampa, Colorado if examples. They had a minimum of 3 strong lines, which allowed them to keep the tempo high. Maurice with calmness of Englishman, moved Cousins to Tkachuk to the 2th line and Reinhart to the 3rd line in the PO. Another example is Tampa and its line of Gourde, Cirelli as the 2nd line center, Palát the 1st line winger. In Vegas, Barbashev played 1st forward etc.

As a result, these teams have spread the pressure across multiple lines that are thoroughly tested.

Conversely, what has Toronto done? They've held on to Marner, Matthews and Tavares like the devil to a cross (though in his case it's understandable who would take him). It doesn't have a quality third line, so the team can't sustain a high tempo game for an entire game. I'll forget about leaders qualities in the OP.

Long story short, we need three strong lines. The fact that the Boone would play in the 3th line means nothing.

But we would combine Gadreau and Laine, two of the best players, who can lead separate lines together and what do we get? Nothing.

 

[NotCommitted]

@VT I think you are jumping the gun a bit, having great depth is what is usually takes to win a cup, but the Jackets might need to start with having 1 good line and work their way from there What I remember of Babcock in Toronto, he seemed to prefer to not stack the talent and try to work with complimentary player types instead, so you might get what you wish for.

There's a lot of moving pieces and if Laine & Gaudreau play together like they did in their best games early on last year, then having 1 dominant line and 2 ok lines might be better than having 3 lines ranging from OK to good.

But we are not even into training camp yet and have no idea what the opening night roster will be like and who will be the 4 centers in it, so it's a bit early for this discussion. I think Gaudreau needs either Laine or Johnson with him, or at least someone who he can make plays with, I don't care who that is but last season Gaudreau & Jenner with either Nyquist (early on) or Marchenko (later) were pretty sad lines.

That said the defense was a mess and mostly AHLers and the season was garbage so who knows... trying to speculate too much with only that kind of crap season for past experience just makes me annoyed

 

[stevo61]

If they load up line 1 with Gaudreau and Laine I kind of hope Fantilli gets that center spot. Instead of making a kid line Jenner can play with Johnson and maybe Marchenko

 

[VT]

@VT I think you are jumping the gun a bit, having great depth is what is usually takes to win a cup, but the Jackets might need to start with having 1 good line and work their way from there What I remember of Babcock in Toronto, he seemed to prefer to not stack the talent and try to work with complimentary player types instead, so you might get what you wish for.

There's a lot of moving pieces and if Laine & Gaudreau play together like they did in their best games early on last year, then having 1 dominant line and 2 ok lines might be better than having 3 lines ranging from OK to good.

But we are not even into training camp yet and have no idea what the opening night roster will be like and who will be the 4 centers in it, so it's a bit early for this discussion. I think Gaudreau needs either Laine or Johnson with him, or at least someone who he can make plays with, I don't care who that is but last season Gaudreau & Jenner with either Nyquist (early on) or Marchenko (later) were pretty sad lines.

That said the defense was a mess and mostly AHLers and the season was garbage so who knows... trying to speculate too much with only that kind of crap season for past experience just makes me annoyed

Even if we want to fight for the PO we have to take advantage of the high tempo of individual lines. And we have to remember that we have a young team. If Gaudreau and Laine lead their lines, why bring them together?

Rather, the question will be whether Laine will play center, since he moves his feet more then and has more shooting room, or Fantilli, like Matthews during Babcock's coaching stint in Toronto, will start on the third line, what will be the lineup of forwards if Voronkov, Sillinger and Chinakhov show they are NHL players. What with Texier, if Johnson in the 3 th line (three strong lines) or not etc...

And we're only talking about forwards, and after all, there's also d-men and goalies (honestly, I don't trust Merzlikins, I'd love to be wrong).

 

[cbjthrowaway]

If you look at the other stats, that's not the case.
-----
But what I want to explain. Look at Florida, Vegas, Tampa, Colorado if examples. They had a minimum of 3 strong lines, which allowed them to keep the tempo high. Maurice with calmness of Englishman, moved Cousins to Tkachuk to the 2th line and Reinhart to the 3rd line in the PO. Another example is Tampa and its line of Gourde, Cirelli as the 2nd line center, Palát the 1st line winger. In Vegas, Barbashev played 1st forward etc.

As a result, these teams have spread the pressure across multiple lines that are thoroughly tested.

Conversely, what has Toronto done? They've held on to Marner, Matthews and Tavares like the devil to a cross (though in his case it's understandable who would take him). It doesn't have a quality third line, so the team can't sustain a high tempo game for an entire game. I'll forget about leaders qualities in the OP.

Long story short, we need three strong lines. The fact that the Boone would play in the 3th line means nothing.

But we would combine Gadreau and Laine, two of the best players, who can lead separate lines together and what do we get? Nothing.

the issue is that it's constantly framed as laine and gaudreau having bad chemistry or gaudreau playing better with marchenko, but that's objectively false. every meaningful rate stat favors gaudreau with laine.

that doesn't mean there isn't a different argument to split them up – as you said, you need three strong lines. laine did better without gaudreau than gaudreau did without laine. if anything, laine should be the primary playmaker on a different line, given the amount of shooters the jackets have in the forward group.

if that ends up being the case, though, the answer isn't to put marchenko and gaudreau together – it's to put him with kent johnson.

	CF%	SCF%	HDCF%
Gaudreau with Laine	52.5%	50.1%	52.5%
Gaudreau with Marchenko	46.6%	46.4%	47.0%
Gaudreau without Laine	44.3%	43.8%	40.2%
Laine without Gaudreau	48.6%	48.3%	44.2%
Gaudreau with Kent Johnson	58.5%	57.4%	58.2%

if i had to split them up, i'd build the line combos like this:
13 - 38 - 91
42 - 11 - 29
59 - 96 - 86
10 - 7 - 17

could replace roslovic with sillinger (or bump voronkov up). i know everyone's pencilling marchenko into the top six, but i don't think there's anything wrong with putting him on a third line that can be sheltered a bit at 5v5. he'll be the bumper on pp1 anyway, so he should have plenty of opportunities to get on the scoresheet.

 

[koteka]

We will have a new system and last year’s new guys like Marchenko and Gaudreau have had more time to learn the tendencies of other guys and other guys have learned their tendencies. I don’t think looking at anything from last year is indicative of what lines we should use this upcoming season.

 

[VT]

the issue is that it's constantly framed as laine and gaudreau having bad chemistry or gaudreau playing better with marchenko, but that's objectively false. every meaningful rate stat favors gaudreau with laine.

that doesn't mean there isn't a different argument to split them up – as you said, you need three strong lines. laine did better without gaudreau than gaudreau did without laine. if anything, laine should be the primary playmaker on a different line, given the amount of shooters the jackets have in the forward group.

if that ends up being the case, though, the answer isn't to put marchenko and gaudreau together – it's to put him with kent johnson.

	CF%	SCF%	HDCF%
Gaudreau with Laine	52.5%	50.1%	52.5%
Gaudreau with Marchenko	46.6%	46.4%	47.0%
Gaudreau without Laine	44.3%	43.8%	40.2%
Laine without Gaudreau	48.6%	48.3%	44.2%
Gaudreau with Kent Johnson	58.5%	57.4%	58.2%

if i had to split them up, i'd build the line combos like this:
13 - 38 - 91
42 - 11 - 29
59 - 96 - 86
10 - 7 - 17

could replace roslovic with sillinger (or bump voronkov up). i know everyone's pencilling marchenko into the top six, but i don't think there's anything wrong with putting him on a third line that can be sheltered a bit at 5v5. he'll be the bumper on pp1 anyway, so he should have plenty of opportunities to get on the scoresheet.

I don't know where you got the HDCF% stats from, because these are, different:

Johnny Gaudreau - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

Patrik Laine - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

Btw, Chinakhov -- Roslovic -- Laine played excellent. But Sillinger and Voronkov can show his qualities and Dima plays very good with skill players. And what about Foudy and Bemmer? It was another Liam after his the first goal in the regular season. Next, Babcock isn't Larsen and defense will be other. Also Laine should play center. So, we know we know nothing.

Btw, Texier with Laine... I am not too sure. Texier was ideal with Kuraly and Robinso, or as a center with Foligno and Jenner but with skill players...