Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

[cbjthrowaway]

I don't know where you got the HDCF% stats from, because these are, different:

Johnny Gaudreau - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

Patrik Laine - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

i was looking at even strength (includes 4v4 and 5v5) instead of just 5v5

Btw, Chinakhov -- Roslovic -- Laine played excellent. But Sillinger and Voronkov can show his qualities and Dima plays very good with skill players.

i don't trust roslovic or chinkahov in the top six at this point – wouldn't mind sillinger or voronkov there but i think moving roslovic's contract is harder than people think. sillinger can start in the AHL. i know voronkov played with skill guys in the KHL but i think his game in the NHL will be most effective on an energy line.

And what about Foudy and Bemmer? It was another Liam after his the first goal in the regular season.

bemmer = in cleveland, assuming he's not claimed on waivers. i'm not a fan.

foudy = depends on whether or not they're able to trade robinson or roslovic. it's a numbers game there. i think he's a perfectly adequate bottom sixer or spare forward, but i also don't think it's very likely he gets claimed if he's sent down during camp.

Next, Babcock isn't Larsen and defense will be other. Also Laine should play center. So, we know we know nothing.

larsen wasn't the guy who put laine at center – that was vincent (it happened for the two games that larsen missed) – i really liked how he looked there, but i don't think babcock is going to really give that idea much consideration.

that said, babcock does want two guys who are capable of playing center on each line – putting johnson with boone and laine with fantilli would seem to fit that criteria.

Btw, Texier with Laine... I am not too sure. Texier was ideal with Kuraly and Robinso, or as a center with Foligno and Jenner but with skill players...

i think texier is perfectly capable of being that guy with skilled players. he was awesome in the playoff bubble back in 2020 on a line with PLD and bjorkstrand. he also carried the kuraly/robinson line two years ago. i think he's certainly capable of being the third option on a second line.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

We will have a new system and last year’s new guys like Marchenko and Gaudreau have had more time to learn the tendencies of other guys and other guys have learned their tendencies. I don’t think looking at anything from last year is indicative of what lines we should use this upcoming season.

Agreed. I suspect, like any reputable NHL operation (and yes I get that there is some doubt about that), Babock will use some analytics in general to help form some of his combos and concepts. But yeah how much, really? He's going to reply primarily on what he sees based on what he wants to see.

 

[VT]

i was looking at even strength (includes 4v4 and 5v5) instead of just 5v5

i don't trust roslovic or chinkahov in the top six at this point – wouldn't mind sillinger or voronkov there but i think moving roslovic's contract is harder than people think. sillinger can start in the AHL. i know voronkov played with skill guys in the KHL but i think his game in the NHL will be most effective on an energy line.

bemmer = in cleveland, assuming he's not claimed on waivers. i'm not a fan.

foudy = depends on whether or not they're able to trade robinson or roslovic. it's a numbers game there. i think he's a perfectly adequate bottom sixer or spare forward, but i also don't think it's very likely he gets claimed if he's sent down during camp.

larsen wasn't the guy who put laine at center – that was vincent (it happened for the two games that larsen missed) – i really liked how he looked there, but i don't think babcock is going to really give that idea much consideration.

that said, babcock does want two guys who are capable of playing center on each line – putting johnson with boone and laine with fantilli would seem to fit that criteria.

i think texier is perfectly capable of being that guy with skilled players. he was awesome in the playoff bubble back in 2020 on a line with PLD and bjorkstrand. he also carried the kuraly/robinson line two years ago. i think he's certainly capable of being the third option on a second line.

4:4 and 5:5 are two different situations. Also the first isn't often.
Bjorkstrand and PLD are skill but they can play NS hockey and not only combinations.
Vincent said they talk with Larsen about it.
Babcock said Matthew started in the 3th line so I think Fantilli could start here too.

 

[Doggy]

...I don't trust roslovic or chinkahov in the top six at this point – wouldn't mind sillinger or voronkov there but i think moving roslovic's contract is harder than people think...

What is your reasoning for not trusting Chinny in the top six...at this point? Is it simply a lack of experience or something specific about his game?

I understand there is a lot of competition for that second line and expect Chinny to play down on the third line but that has nothing to do with me not "trusting" him in a top six role. I thought he was doing some nice things offensively when he got hurt and I think he is better away from the puck and more responsible defensively than he's getting credit for.

 

[Xoggz22]

Agreed. I suspect, like any reputable NHL operation (and yes I get that there is some doubt about that), Babock will use some analytics in general to help form some of his combos and concepts. But yeah how much, really? He's going to reply primarily on what he sees based on what he wants to see.

@koteka too since your reply was to his(?) original post...

I think we'll see drastic differences from the start of camp to the end of camp to the first 20 games of the season as Babcock identifies skill sets and other tendencies between players. This is truly a fresh slate, which, to me, is different than going from Torts to Larson. There should be very little preconceived notion headed into camp. For all we know Babcock could unlock consistency with Roslovic, for example. I agree with both of you, so hopefully this babble was just to reiterate that mantra.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

What is your reasoning for not trusting Chinny in the top six...at this point? Is it simply a lack of experience or something specific about his game?

I understand there is a lot of competition for that second line and expect Chinny to play down on the third line but that has nothing to do with me not "trusting" him in a top six role. I thought he was doing some nice things offensively when he got hurt and I think he is better away from the puck and more responsible defensively than he's getting credit for.

tbf i think chinny is a good player who could eventually run with a top six role.

there's a lot of stuff i like in his game, but he hasn't been able to use those tools consistently at the NHL level. he has great speed and hands but hasn't been a consistently viable puck carrier and still has a lot of details to iron out. the talent is there, but bottom six deployment means he could be sheltered and work on that.

as for why i would specifically put texier over him in that example: i went back and forth on it a bit, but texier's ability to be a secondary puck transporter + strong forechecking/corner play/two-way game compared to chinakhov made him a better option to put with fantilli (shooter) and laine (shooter, but would be the primary playmaker) to balance out that line.

 

[CBJx614]

I take stats from last season with a very little grain of salt moving forward.

 

[ThirdPeriodTurtle]

if i had to split them up, i'd build the line combos like this:
13 - 38 - 91
42 - 11 - 29
59 - 96 - 86
10 - 7 - 17

This is probably my favorite lineup before preseason begins. I'd also try Gaudreau-Fantilli-Laine at some point and see if they click, but if not, this looks pretty good. Fantilli on the 2nd line or 3rd line would be the ideal starting point and a little less pressure unless he absolutely forces himself into the 1st line center position.

I feel Gaudreau and Johnson could use a defensive minded center, so Jenner fits the bill. I also don't think Jenner's offensive mind is that great. Maybe this combo works better than with Laine, who on the other hand I hope could benefit from Fantilli's offensive style (and Texier and Laine himself picking up the defensive side a bit more).

Chinakhov-Roslovic-Marchenko could be sneaky good. Rosy is used to shooters (Laine) and Chinny and Marchy should fit that bill. If we could find some chemistry between Rosy and anybody else except Laine that would open up lots of good possibilities (such as this one here).

4th line with Voronkov and Danforth is similarly full of potential - I don't think our 4th last year was that bad with Olivier, Kuraly and Robinson/Foudy, so they'll be waiting in the wings for their opportunity in case some part of this lineup doesn't work.

 

[majormajor]

What is your reasoning for not trusting Chinny in the top six...at this point? Is it simply a lack of experience or something specific about his game?

I understand there is a lot of competition for that second line and expect Chinny to play down on the third line but that has nothing to do with me not "trusting" him in a top six role. I thought he was doing some nice things offensively when he got hurt and I think he is better away from the puck and more responsible defensively than he's getting credit for.

tbf i think chinny is a good player who could eventually run with a top six role.

there's a lot of stuff i like in his game, but he hasn't been able to use those tools consistently at the NHL level. he has great speed and hands but hasn't been a consistently viable puck carrier and still has a lot of details to iron out. the talent is there, but bottom six deployment means he could be sheltered and work on that.

as for why i would specifically put texier over him in that example: i went back and forth on it a bit, but texier's ability to be a secondary puck transporter + strong forechecking/corner play/two-way game compared to chinakhov made him a better option to put with fantilli (shooter) and laine (shooter, but would be the primary playmaker) to balance out that line.

I don't see anything worth going back and forth about. Texier was a much better player last we saw him.

Chinakhov so far has only looked good in open space, maybe it's his lack of agility but he doesn't get in on the forecheck and retrieve as well (opposite of Texier) and his small area offensive game is so far non-existent. Not that he can't figure it out later but currently Chinakhov might as well be a prospect.

Roslovic is not in that category, he's got issues but if you look at the rate he scores points at it's much higher than Chinakhov. You can put him in the top six.

if that ends up being the case, though, the answer isn't to put marchenko and gaudreau together – it's to put him with kent johnson.

	CF%	SCF%	HDCF%
Gaudreau with Laine	52.5%	50.1%	52.5%
Gaudreau with Marchenko	46.6%	46.4%	47.0%
Gaudreau without Laine	44.3%	43.8%	40.2%
Laine without Gaudreau	48.6%	48.3%	44.2%
Gaudreau with Kent Johnson	58.5%	57.4%	58.2%

if i had to split them up, i'd build the line combos like this:
13 - 38 - 91
42 - 11 - 29
59 - 96 - 86
10 - 7 - 17

could replace roslovic with sillinger (or bump voronkov up). i know everyone's pencilling marchenko into the top six, but i don't think there's anything wrong with putting him on a third line that can be sheltered a bit at 5v5. he'll be the bumper on pp1 anyway, so he should have plenty of opportunities to get on the scoresheet.

With guys like Kent and Johnny the scoring doesn't always move with possession. I'm much more interested in their scoring rates (P/60s) together and so far that doesn't look good.

**Have a look at the corsi against / other against stats with Johnny and KJ together, at 5v5. That's where the good CF% comes from. They've got the puck so the other club isn't shooting, but their own attempts are also way down together. That and I think you've got to stick with 5v5 stats here. A couple shifts together at 3v3 with a flurry of shots will completely bias ES stats.

Not that I'd be opposed to trying KJ and Johnny together in the future but sometimes east-west guys need more north-south from their linemates.

The other consideration is that Babs wants the L and R center on each line, and that line would be all LH shots. It would make more sense to me that one of Johnny and KJ be on a line with RH Laine.


I don't see the appeal of a 59 - 96 - 86 unit. It looks weak on retrievals. Who is digging pucks out when the puck is on the wall or in the corners?

 

[ThirdPeriodTurtle]

I don't see the appeal of a 59 - 96 - 86 unit. It looks weak on retrievals. Who is digging pucks out when the puck is on the wall or in the corners?

This season's improvement of Chinny and Marchy!

 

[tunnelvision]

Chinakhov so far has only looked good in open space, maybe it's his lack of agility but he doesn't get in on the forecheck and retrieve as well (opposite of Texier) and his small area offensive game is so far non-existent. Not that he can't figure it out later but currently Chinakhov might as well be a prospect.

Non-existent small area game might be a bit of an exaggeration but thank you for bringing this up, I agree that it isn't great. A player of his type (non-physical goal-scoring wing) usually needs to have better puckhandling skills in order to be a valuable top-9 forward.

Takes too much time to settle pucks for a shooting position, can't pull off very creative passes even on open ice, and is inconsistent in digging pucks out of corners. It's difficult to be a serious scoring threat and buy more time and space for your teammates if you can only do simple plays that we typically see from 4th liners (while also lacking the grit and energy).

I think there were reports last year saying he used to stay on the ice after team practices to work on his skills with McCudden. It's a very positive thing to hear for a fan like me who has repeatedly criticized his puckhandling since his rookie year. I look forward to watching him in preseason games. I don't think anyone expects him to ever be as quick, smooth and versatile in tight spaces as KJ or JG, but once he finds consistency in basic puck plays on the wall and figures out what his physical and technical limits are, we might start seeing better small area plays from him.

 

[Cowumbus]

Non-existent small area game might be a bit of an exaggeration but thank you for bringing this up, I agree that it isn't great. A player of his type (non-physical goal-scoring wing) usually needs to have better puckhandling skills in order to be a valuable top-9 forward.

Takes too much time to settle pucks for a shooting position, can't pull off very creative passes even on open ice, and is inconsistent in digging pucks out of corners. It's difficult to be a serious scoring threat and buy more time and space for your teammates if you can only do simple plays that we typically see from 4th liners (while also lacking the grit and energy).

I think there were reports last year saying he used to stay on the ice after team practices to work on his skills with McCudden. It's a very positive thing to hear for a fan like me who has repeatedly criticized his puckhandling since his rookie year. I look forward to watching him in preseason games. I don't think anyone expects him to ever be as quick, smooth and versatile in tight spaces as KJ or JG, but once he finds consistency in basic puck plays on the wall and figures out what his physical and technical limits are, we might start seeing better small area plays from him.

I don’t remember, but when Hartley said he wasn’t ready for the NHL, did he mention these weaknesses specifically?

 

[VT]

I don’t remember, but when Hartley said he wasn’t ready for the NHL, did he mention these weaknesses specifically?

No. He just said it would be better so that Yegor would stay he (Hartley) would teach him more.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Reading between the lines it looks like berni has requested a trade

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

Reading between the lines it looks like berni has requested a trade

To me it reads like they are looking for compromising information on the FO and Babcock

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Reading between the lines it looks like berni has requested a trade

on one hand, he definitely looked more capable than i thought he would be, and the depth chart is stacked against him.

on the other hand, putting up three points in 59 games after being thrust into the NHL due to injuries after mostly being a #4-5 AHL guy, only to sulk and demand a trade is very funny. i mean, i get it, but it's funny.

also very cool to add another "guy who briefly played on the blue jackets, then said f*** it and immediately/abruptly went back to europe" to the list:

1. lukas sedlak
2. mikko koivu
3. gregory hofmann
4. mikko lehtonen
5. jakob lilja
6. mikhail grigorenko
7. lauri korpikoski

calvin thurkauf also probably belongs here (played 3 games, then went back to switzerland). texier is exempt because of extenuating circumstances. dean kukan and markus hannikanen were here too long to qualify.

 

[EDM]

I cant wait for Training Camp to start. This thread is running out of steam.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I cant wait for Training Camp to start. This thread is running out of steam.

i've reached the "reminiscing about jakob lilja" stage of the offseason, so… yeah.

 

[majormajor]

on one hand, he definitely looked more capable than i thought he would be, and the depth chart is stacked against him.

on the other hand, putting up three points in 59 games after being thrust into the NHL due to injuries after mostly being a #4-5 AHL guy, only to sulk and demand a trade is very funny. i mean, i get it, but it's funny.

also very cool to add another "guy who briefly played on the blue jackets, then said f*** it and immediately/abruptly went back to europe" to the list:

1. lukas sedlak
2. mikko koivu
3. gregory hofmann
4. mikko lehtonen
5. jakob lilja
6. mikhail grigorenko
7. lauri korpikoski

calvin thurkauf also probably belongs here (played 3 games, then went back to switzerland). texier is exempt because of extenuating circumstances. dean kukan and markus hannikanen were here too long to qualify.

It's obviously in Berni's best interest to get a trade, I don't think we need to call him a sulking baby or anything. A trade is his best chance at getting an NHL job. The injury crisis was just bad enough for him to get a callup last year (the 4th or 5th D we called up). If he goes back to Cleveland his chances of getting another callup are slim.

He's not waiver exempt but probably not established enough to get claimed, and so his trade value is probably zilch. Maybe we could get a 6th rounder.

 

[NotWendell]

He can read the depth chart. He knows the prospects we have coming up. A trade is the best thing for his career.

 

[Jovavic]

A trade to where, though? Every team already has at least one Berni in their system already. Who has the worst D depth league wide? Montreal?

 

[CBJWerenski8]

A trade to where, though? Every team already has at least one Berni in their system already. Who has the worst D depth league wide? Montreal?

Agreed. He moves no needles and does minimal for overall roster depth.

Berni has no chance to land an NHL job next year. If he's looking for better opportunity, then his best bet is to sign in Cleveland and continue with his trade request. If not, then he should abandon his NHL dream for now and sign back home in hopes the CBJ trade his rights one day or a spot opens up for him.

 

[NotCommitted]

A trade to where, though? Every team already has at least one Berni in their system already. Who has the worst D depth league wide? Montreal?

But in a new situation he has a chance to out-Berni the one already in the system For guys like him where it's not a given he'll ever land a regular NHL job, there's a huge amount of luck and circumstance involved in whether they ever make it or not, like team mates, coaches, whatever. It seems he has reached the conclusion it's better to try his luck elsewhere. Who knows, maybe some GM thinks they see something there, here he is just a Berni but somewhere else he might be a uhm... the guy who no one thinks much about but who the GM really wants to succeed because he faintly resembles a yet unknown future all star D-man they saw in a dream. Or something.

 

[koteka]

But in a new situation he has a chance to out-Berni the one already in the system For guys like him where it's not a given he'll ever land a regular NHL job, there's a huge amount of luck and circumstance involved in whether they ever make it or not, like team mates, coaches, whatever. It seems he has reached the conclusion it's better to try his luck elsewhere. Who knows, maybe some GM thinks they see something there, here he is just a Berni but somewhere else he might be a uhm... the guy who no one thinks much about but who the GM really wants to succeed because he faintly resembles a yet unknown future all star D-man they saw in a dream. Or something.

I have to think he’d find a better situation with a team that has traded most of their picks over the last several seasons (Tampa, Pittsburg, etc) than in Columbus. It has got to be easier to be a late round pick / AHLer that gets the occasional call up for a team that trades their 1st and 2nd round picks than for a team that has acquired extra 1st round picks.

 

[CoachWithNoTeam]

I’m totally cool with Berni fighting for a 7-8 spot in the roster, so I don’t think that he has no value to us. And he’s still younger than you’d expect, so there’s he a chance he turns into a permanent NHL player eventually. I wonder where he thinks he’ll have more opportunity than he had last year, and if there is somewhere else, couldn’t he just hope for waivers and revisit this then.

He’s progressing fine and is getting chances so i’m not sure what the rush is. Or maybe he’s just getting a low contract offer and this is an all negotiating tactic.