Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Prospects don't pan out all the time. That's why they are called "prospects." It's uncertain. Karlsson, when healthy, is a sure thing.

I think he makes this team better, definitely.

and how long do we expect to wait before "winning" is the expectation here? the season after this one? 3 years?

That why he would cost multiple prospects and it is no guarantee. He could show up the first week of training camp and blow out a knee. He could take a dirty hit and get a serious concussion issue. His serious foot issues could pop back up again.

He has 100% control of where he gets traded and as much as he might say otherwise, I bet its not to a team like Columbus considering he is San Jose.

Per a Sportsnet article:

“I'm the best when you need to be the best. But if I don't have the chance to get to the place where you need to play the big games, then I might as well not do it. I could go through 82 games a year and be good, but I want to play when it matters,” Karlsson said.

“In the stage of my career, that's what I'm looking for. And there's no particular team [in mind]. Whenever it comes down to it, I'm gonna look at all the teams and be like: ‘I think this is the winning team.’ That's not to say we're going to win, but I think this is where I can have the most impact.”

Sounds like a guy who wants to be "the Guy" on a team contending for a cup.

 

[BB88]

He pretty much built the 2 time Stanley Cup winning Tampa Bay Lightning. He drafted Kucherov, Point, Vaselevskiy, etc.

& how about his work in Detroit?

The team you are comparing Columbus to.

This place would lose it if Jarmo gave up those contracts to Chiarot, Holl, Copp, Compher within 12 months.

& Detroits lack of star power up front will seriously limit their Cup contending ceiling, the East is going to be too good to lack that franchise forward/game changer

 

[ThisIsMyAlibi]

& how about his work in Detroit?

The team you are comparing Columbus to.

This place would lose it if Jarmo gave up those contracts to Chiarot, Holl, Copp, Compher within 12 months.

& Detroits lack of star power up front will seriously limit their Cup contending ceiling, the East is going to be too good to lack that franchise forward/game changer

Detroit in the midst of a full rebuild. Someone has to play the games when the futures are getting evaluated/working their way up the system.

 

[Marioesque]

No need for more defensemen

 

[BB88]

Detroit in the midst of a full rebuild. Someone has to play the games when the futures are getting evaluated/working their way up the system.

So if Jarmo signed those contracts mid rebuild it would have been fine?

& Detroits been rebuilding for like what 7 years now?

 

[CBJx614]

What do we do if Werenski's play drastically declines? What do we do if Jenner goes full Dubinsky next season? There is uncertainty in every move. There is an equal amount of uncertainty in prospects. Without the ceiling.

As for Jarmo being fired: He's well on his way to make that happen, regardless of Karlsson.

Lol wut.

Werenski is what 26?

Karlsson is a 33 yo injury prone anchor.

But okay.

 

[koteka]

& how about his work in Detroit?

The team you are comparing Columbus to.

This place would lose it if Jarmo gave up those contracts to Chiarot, Holl, Copp, Compher within 12 months.

& Detroits lack of star power up front will seriously limit their Cup contending ceiling, the East is going to be too good to lack that franchise forward/game changer

He is building slowly and not rushing his prospects. I respect that. He has some place holder veterans so he doesn’t have to bring the young guys in too early or over play them. Interestingly, the only Jacket that outscored JT Compher this season is Gaudreau. Compher has won a Cup. He can tell the young guys stories about building toward the Cup run. He can eat minutes so Kasper isn’t rushed. Is he a star? No. Is he a good player to bring in if you want to establish a winning culture? He makes way more sense than Provorov. Look at Detroit’s cap situation. They are fine.

 

[pscbj80]

He is building slowly and not rushing his prospects. I respect that. He has some place holder veterans so he doesn’t have to bring the young guys in too early or over play them. Interestingly, the only Jacket that outscored JT Compher this season is Gaudreau. Compher has won a Cup. He can tell the young guys stories about building toward the Cup run. He can eat minutes so Kasper isn’t rushed. Is he a star? No. Is he a good player to bring in if you want to establish a winning culture? He makes way more sense than Provorov. Look at Detroit’s cap situation. They are fine.

According to Wheeler's ranking at the Athletic in January and Hockey Prospecting after the recent draft the CBJ are ranked higher with their prospect pool than Detroit. Mix in Fantilli and Jiricek have higher ceilings than any Detroit prospect at the two most important positions? I will take this rebuild over Detroit's. Plus giving 5 years to Compher is no place holder.

 

[Marioesque]

According to Wheeler's ranking at the Athletic in January and Hockey Prospecting after the recent draft the CBJ are ranked higher with their prospect pool than Detroit. Mix in Fantilli and Jiricek have higher ceilings than any Detroit prospect at the two most important positions? I will take this rebuild over Detroit's. Plus giving 5 years to Compher is no place holder.

Yeah Detroit is ranked 19th and Columbus 1st so it's not a difficult choice

 

[majormajor]

According to Wheeler's ranking at the Athletic in January and Hockey Prospecting after the recent draft the CBJ are ranked higher with their prospect pool than Detroit. Mix in Fantilli and Jiricek have higher ceilings than any Detroit prospect at the two most important positions? I will take this rebuild over Detroit's. Plus giving 5 years to Compher is no place holder.

Yeah Detroit is ranked 19th and Columbus 1st so it's not a difficult choice

This makes me feel like a snob but I insist that folks are aware that hockey prospecting is not a scouting agency like hockeyprospect, it's just an NHLe model that mostly counts points. A guy like Jordan Dumais is one of the top prospects in the league according to them. Cale Makar was a low rated prospect according to them. Edvinsson is not a high rated prospect according to them (also wrong). It's absolutely worthless for evaluating teams. For the record, I think the Jackets have a top 3 prospect pool, but Detroit is not 19th, that's absurd.

 

[koteka]

According to Wheeler's ranking at the Athletic in January and Hockey Prospecting after the recent draft the CBJ are ranked higher with their prospect pool than Detroit. Mix in Fantilli and Jiricek have higher ceilings than any Detroit prospect at the two most important positions? I will take this rebuild over Detroit's. Plus giving 5 years to Compher is no place holder.

Detroit has Moritz Seider. We hope Jiricek will develop as well as Seider has been developing. So I give them the advantage at young right D.

Fantilli is better than any Detroit prospect, but they already have a top line center in Dylan Larkin signed to a very reasonable contract. Marco Kasper looks like a good center prospect. I hope Fantilli lives up to expectations, but I have to say Detroit’s center position is more certain and deeper than Columbus’.

As for their “19th ranked prospect pool”, it does include Sebastian Cossa. Meanwhile we are hoping Elvis will improve or Tarasov is the answer.

PS: I am not a fan of Scott Wheeler or The Athletic.

 

[CoachWithNoTeam]

I just want to know how long into the summer that Calgary is willing to go without making a move given the amount of teams that are capped out and the number of high profile players that they still will most likely have to move. I suppose it could potentially go all the way to the deadline but it feels like they’re running out of dance partners a little bit, and could miss out on maximizing their returns. I’m not sure how many contenders are looking for a Lindholm, Backlund, or Hanifin and have both the cap space and assets to acquire them, especially when there are veteran UFAs still floating around the market for free. It feels like there is still a lot left to settle around the league for players and teams in limbo.

 

[Youngguns1380]

I just want to know how long into the summer that Calgary is willing to go without making a move given the amount of teams that are capped out and the number of high profile players that they still will most likely have to move. I suppose it could potentially go all the way to the deadline but it feels like they’re running out of dance partners a little bit, and could miss out on maximizing their returns. I’m not sure how many contenders are looking for a Lindholm, Backlund, or Hanifin and have both the cap space and assets to acquire them, especially when there are veteran UFAs still floating around the market for free. It feels like there is still a lot left to settle around the league for players and teams in limbo.

They only have $2.4m left in cap and only have 18 players signed. So they will have to do something

 

[BB88]

He is building slowly and not rushing his prospects. I respect that. He has some place holder veterans so he doesn’t have to bring the young guys in too early or over play them. Interestingly, the only Jacket that outscored JT Compher this season is Gaudreau. Compher has won a Cup. He can tell the young guys stories about building toward the Cup run. He can eat minutes so Kasper isn’t rushed. Is he a star? No. Is he a good player to bring in if you want to establish a winning culture? He makes way more sense than Provorov. Look at Detroit’s cap situation. They are fine.

It’s just different standards everytime when it comes to Columbus vs others.

It’s okay for Detroit to take 10 years before they could legit compete in the playoffs, give up bad contracts like candy but if Columbus doesn’t have a perfect roster after 3 years of rebuild it’s panic time/fire everyone

Columbus has rebuild a higher ceiling in half the time than Detroit but they are still somehow doing things better.

 

[koteka]

It’s just different standards everytime when it comes to Columbus vs others.

It’s okay for Detroit to take 10 years before they could legit compete in the playoffs, give up bad contracts like candy but if Columbus doesn’t have a perfect roster after 3 years of rebuild it’s panic time/fire everyone

Columbus has rebuild a higher ceiling in half the time than Detroit but they are still somehow doing things better.

I actually would like to take more time and do it right. I think we are screwing things up because Jarmo is getting desperate. I also had no problem with the Gudbranson contract because we need a tough guy on the ice and it was only 4 years. Where I think we are screwing up is giving out an 8 year contract to a guy who won’t be good at the end of it. Yzerman hasn’t done that. I also don’t like trading a first for a guy that only has two years on his contract. Yzerman hasn’t done that. Yzerman has identified young guys he didnt think were core players and traded them - like Hronek. We should do some of that. Peeke isn’t core? Trade him while he has some value. Don’t hold on to him and watch his value drop.

Detroit has a much better salary cap situation and has a similar young core with better goalies in the pipeline. Our advantages over them are we bottomed out in what looks like the right year to bottom out and got Fantilli plus a we have a good veteran left defenseman and two good veteran wings. Their young D group led by Seider and Edvinsson is better than our young D group led by Jiricek. They have an established NHL center and we have nothing. The have a first and second round drafted goalie in their system (Cossa, Augustine) while we don’t. We have started to use a lot of our draft picks on skill guys who are undersized and they use draft picks on a variety of people including defensemen with decent size like Shai Baum or Brady Cleveland. In 5 years if you are in the playoffs a physical defenseman will be more valuable than an undersized wing.

 

[Xoggz22]

What do we do if Werenski's play drastically declines? What do we do if Jenner goes full Dubinsky next season? There is uncertainty in every move. There is an equal amount of uncertainty in prospects. Without the ceiling.

As for Jarmo being fired: He's well on his way to make that happen, regardless of Karlsson.

What would you expect from EK on this CBJ team? Serious question. The Norris is no longer the best defenseman it's the guy that scores the most. What does he look like in Columbus?

 

[Coffee]

Bluejackets must pick it up right away or else they will feel the wrath of the metro division

 

[squashmaple]

Bluejackets must pick it up right away or else they will feel the wrath of the metro division

Unlike the previous decade of the Metro, when it was filled with kittens and pushovers like prime Crosby and Ovechkin. Right.

 

[Coffee]

Unlike the previous decade of the Metro, when it was filled with kittens and pushovers like prime Crosby and Ovechkin. Right.

During that era the Bluejackets were not to be taken seriously. We knew that.

A new era is upon us, Bluejackets have become favourites but they have to earn it, or else they will feel the wrath of the metro

 

[VT]

Detroit has Moritz Seider. We hope Jiricek will develop as well as Seider has been developing. So I give them the advantage at young right D.

Fantilli is better than any Detroit prospect, but they already have a top line center in Dylan Larkin signed to a very reasonable contract. Marco Kasper looks like a good center prospect. I hope Fantilli lives up to expectations, but I have to say Detroit’s center position is more certain and deeper than Columbus’.

As for their “19th ranked prospect pool”, it does include Sebastian Cossa. Meanwhile we are hoping Elvis will improve or Tarasov is the answer.

PS: I am not a fan of Scott Wheeler or The Athletic.

The rebuilding team is only going into its second year, not its seventh. Before that, the team was made based on what Torts wanted.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

During that era the Bluejackets were not to be taken seriously. We knew that.

A new era is upon us, Bluejackets have become favourites but they have to earn it, or else they will feel the wrath of the metro

I don't think we are favorites for anything except another lottery pick until we prove it with on ice results. I would call Carolina and NJ favorites in this division.

 

[koteka]

I don't think we are favorites for anything except another lottery pick until we prove it with on ice results. I would call Carolina and NJ favorites in this division.

I think the Canes and Devils are the class of the division and the Rangers are way ahead of us. The Penguins haven’t given up yet. The Islanders are always tough. Washington is more focused on getting Ovechkin his goals than winning, which helps us. Philadelphia is a mess, but they have Torts so you know they aren’t rolling over. I also think it is very likely that 5 playoff teams are coming out of the Atlantic.

 

[EDM]

Not to point a finger at anyone in particular but I am surprised at the amount of negativity on ths board at this time. I thought might at least get to training camp before all the doubts started coming out. Anyway, I am not a Jarmo fan, but to me the last few weeks have shown some pleasant surprises. Looking forward to the start of the season for the first time on about 5 years.

 

[koteka]

Not to point a finger at anyone in particular but I am surprised at the amount of negativity on ths board at this time. I thought might at least get to training camp before all the doubts started coming out. Anyway, I am not a Jarmo fan, but to me the last few weeks have shown some pleasant surprises. Looking forward to the start of the season for the first time on about 5 years.

I am cautiously optimistic, but I think we are at least 2 more years away from making a run at the playoffs. Is that pessimistic? I am shocked people think we can compete for a playoff spot this year. I think we are much more likely to win the draft lottery and pick first or second.

 

[Marioesque]

I am cautiously optimistic, but I think we are at least 2 more years away from making a run at the playoffs. Is that pessimistic? I am shocked people think we can compete for a playoff spot this year. I think we are much more likely to win the draft lottery and pick first or second.

Yeah that's very pessimistic. I don't see how the team could be same or worse next season, unless you're expecting the injuries to reoccur even worse next season (possible, not reasonable). Last season the team played with Gudbransson and various AHL D for most of the season. Next season starts with Werenski-Severson-Provorov and probably Jiricek. All of the core are young, so natural progression is expected from each one every year.

They still won "too many" games last season with that insane amount of injuries. It's rational to expect the team to be much better this season. Unless you're just being pessimistic so you can't be let down. It's understandable after a season like last one where all the wheels kept falling off all season.

But to expect that to be the norm is not statistically sustainable. Seasons with that many man games lost are very rare and they destroy the chances of practically any team.

Just look at how Vegas bounced back from missing the playoffs due to an insane injury riddled season. Don't need to go far to find out the difference between bad injury season and a normal one. From out of playoffs to stanley cup.