Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Not to point a finger at anyone in particular but I am surprised at the amount of negativity on ths board at this time. I thought might at least get to training camp before all the doubts started coming out. Anyway, I am not a Jarmo fan, but to me the last few weeks have shown some pleasant surprises. Looking forward to the start of the season for the first time on about 5 years.

On paper.

I've been through enough disappointment that I'm just waiting to see it on the ice. We "should" be better this year. It can't really get any worse.

 

[squashmaple]

During that era the Bluejackets were not to be taken seriously. We knew that.

A new era is upon us, Bluejackets have become favourites but they have to earn it, or else they will feel the wrath of the metro

What? Remember when we faced the eventual cup winner in the first round three years in a row because of the Metro? And then the only time we ever wona round was against Atlantic teams? The Metro has always been the Metrodome. There will always be at least three teams who are the top of the league, it's just Jersey and Carolina have replaced Washington and Pittsburgh as those top teams. Columbus has never been and will never be a "favorite" in any capacity.

I am cautiously optimistic, but I think we are at least 2 more years away from making a run at the playoffs. Is that pessimistic? I am shocked people think we can compete for a playoff spot this year. I think we are much more likely to win the draft lottery and pick first or second.

Nothing about your posts has been remotely "cautiously optimistic," but there's also nothing wrong with being conservative in your assesment. I agree that the playoffs this year is silly. But the team will be better than last year even if it's simply regression to the mean.

 

[Crede777]

If the team can stay healthy I think they challenge for a wildcard spot. Making the playoffs isn't an expectation, but coming relatively close is.

The defense and systems play should be significantly better with Babcock behind the bench and having added Severson and Provorov.

Center should be slightly better or about the same. I am hoping that Johnson comes into camp with added strength and puts the "he's a winger" stuff to rest. As with Dubois, Jarmo drafted Johnson with the projection that he would be a center in the future. While I don't think Jarmo is perfect, I really respect his ability to project where top end guys will play in the lineup. I think Fantilli will be okay but he's not the prime guy at this point. Sillinger will need to improve his skating to play in the NHL.

Finally, goaltending will be the same on paper but should improve if the defense and systems play improves. I don't think Elvis is the answer but honestly a healthy Tarasov could be or else we flip a pick for a backup and go from there.

 

[koteka]

Yeah that's very pessimistic. I don't see how the team could be same or worse next season, unless you're expecting the injuries to reoccur even worse next season (possible, not reasonable). Last season the team played with Gudbransson and various AHL D for most of the season. Next season starts with Werenski-Severson-Provorov and probably Jiricek. All of the core are young, so natural progression is expected from each one every year.

I think we will be better than last year. But let’s say we finish 11th in the East (instead of 16th) and 23nd in the NHL (instead of 31st). That is a major improvement. It also means we have about a 7% chance of drafting 1st or 2nd. I think we have a much lower thank 7% chance of making the playoffs this year.

 

[majormajor]

If we have average goaltending I could see us finishing with about 90 points. The third seed in the Metro, the likely final playoff spot, I'd guess will be 6-10 points away. It's a very young team and it will take time for guys to learn and gel as a group.

I do not think we will get average goaltending from this tandem. I expect us to be about 80 pts.

Finally, goaltending will be the same on paper but should improve if the defense and systems play improves. I don't think Elvis is the answer but honestly a healthy Tarasov could be or else we flip a pick for a backup and go from there.

How many good starts do you think Tarasov can give us? 30? I honestly don't expect a lot of starts or a lot of quality from him.

 

[Crede777]

How many good starts do you think Tarasov can give us? 30? I honestly don't expect a lot of starts or a lot of quality from him.

I view Tarasov in the same line as Korpisalo. He is big and positionally sound but not stellar. He has been hamstrung by injuries and bouncing between the NHL and AHL. Given him being healthy (a risk) and getting consistent starts with a sound team in front of him, I think 30-40 good starts is doable.

That's more than I would say for Elvis who is way too active and inconsistent in my opinion. The team just needs someone who is dependable and too often Elvis looks like he's trying to be a hero.

That said, I'm not too worried because even if Tarasov and Elvis start out horribly, I think the team can send out a 3rd or 4th round pick a few weeks into the season and nab someone who is average but lost the starter spot.

 

[5th Line Fanatic]

I'll make an assessment when Jarmo is done with the offseason. So far, I love everything he's done in 2023. I believe, at minimum, we need to be playing meaningful games in April.

I think we will be better than last year. But let’s say we finish 11th in the East (instead of 16th) and 23nd in the NHL (instead of 31st). That is a major improvement. It also means we have about a 7% chance of drafting 1st or 2nd. I think we have a much lower thank 7% chance of making the playoffs this year.

11th in the East would mean we probably aren't playing meaningful games in April. If that's the case, Jarmo will be fired.

 

[koteka]

I'll make an assessment when Jarmo is done with the offseason. So far, I love everything he's done in 2023. I believe, at minimum, we need to be playing meaningful games in April.

11th in the East would mean we probably aren't playing meaningful games in April. If that's the case, Jarmo will be fired.

Have you looked at our schedule? 9 of our last 14 games are on the road. Our last 5 games are 4 road games and then a home game against the Canes. We might be close to the playoffs until March, but I don’t think we will be finishing strong. 11th sounds pretty likely to me. Maybe even hopeful.

 

[squashmaple]

I'll make an assessment when Jarmo is done with the offseason. So far, I love everything he's done in 2023. I believe, at minimum, we need to be playing meaningful games in April.

11th in the East would mean we probably aren't playing meaningful games in April. If that's the case, Jarmo will be fired.

They're not going to fire Jarmo next summer. Whatever else, the McConnells won't pay him to sit at home. They'll just let him go into the season a lame duck like they did with Torts.

 

[5th Line Fanatic]

Have you looked at our schedule? 9 of our last 14 games are on the road. Our last 5 games are 4 road games and then a home game against the Canes. We might be close to the playoffs until March, but I don’t think we will be finishing strong. 11th sounds pretty likely to me. Maybe even hopeful.

Yes, I've seen the schedule.

I assume at some point every season, Jarmo has an annual review meeting with ownership. For three years now, he's been telling them playoffs in 2023-2024, competing for the Cup in 2024-2025.

If we miss the playoffs in 2024, but are still playing meaningful games in April, I think Jarmo can spin it as a positive and keep his job. If we are clearly out of it by April 1, I think they'll fire him.

82 points is the magic number in my mind. I find it hard to imagine him keeping his job if the team isn't at least ".500" and doesn't eclipse the point total of 2021-2022.

 

[CBJx614]

I actually would like to take more time and do it right. I think we are screwing things up because Jarmo is getting desperate. I also had no problem with the Gudbranson contract because we need a tough guy on the ice and it was only 4 years. Where I think we are screwing up is giving out an 8 year contract to a guy who won’t be good at the end of it. Yzerman hasn’t done that. I also don’t like trading a first for a guy that only has two years on his contract. Yzerman hasn’t done that. Yzerman has identified young guys he didnt think were core players and traded them - like Hronek. We should do some of that. Peeke isn’t core? Trade him while he has some value. Don’t hold on to him and watch his value drop.

Detroit has a much better salary cap situation and has a similar young core with better goalies in the pipeline. Our advantages over them are we bottomed out in what looks like the right year to bottom out and got Fantilli plus a we have a good veteran left defenseman and two good veteran wings. Their young D group led by Seider and Edvinsson is better than our young D group led by Jiricek. They have an established NHL center and we have nothing. The have a first and second round drafted goalie in their system (Cossa, Augustine) while we don’t. We have started to use a lot of our draft picks on skill guys who are undersized and they use draft picks on a variety of people including defensemen with decent size like Shai Baum or Brady Cleveland. In 5 years if you are in the playoffs a physical defenseman will be more valuable than an undersized wing.

What desperation moves has Jarmo made?

Provorov wasn't a desperation move.

Severson wasn't.

We didn't trade away any meaningful picks.

We haven't made a huge move for Lindholm type that sacrifices the future for now..

 

[koteka]

82 points is the magic number in my mind. I find it hard to imagine him keeping his job if the team isn't at least ".500" and doesn't eclipse the point total of 2021-2022.

82 would have been 23rd in the NHL last season. It would have been 12th in the Eastern Conference.

I do not think we will get average goaltending from this tandem. I expect us to be about 80 pts.

Maybe a lot of us aren’t too far off in what we expect we are just framing it differently. It is more a difference in how we see it. I am kind of optimistic long run but I really hope they don’t screw things up. I haven’t liked most of the moves this off season other than drafting Fantilli which was a no brainer. I see maybe 80-84 points next season and a few spots away from the playoffs. I am not too hyped about that. That puts us in lottery territory and maybe a 7% chance of the first or second pick, give or take a slot or two. Maybe we’ll get high to 80s or 90 the following year, which again leaves us out of the playoffs. Then I hope to reach the mid 90s in 25-26 and a playoff spot.

 

[Sdrawkcab321]

What desperation moves has Jarmo made?

Provorov wasn't a desperation move.

Severson wasn't.

We didn't trade away any meaningful picks.

We haven't made a huge move for Lindholm type that sacrifices the future for now..

Giving severson 8 years knowing damn well he won’t be worth it about half way though that deal was absolutely a desperate move.

 

[MissADD]

Giving severson 8 years knowing damn well he won’t be worth it about half way though that deal was absolutely a desperate move.

I wouldn't say it was desperate. I think it would be better to say it was needed to convince him to come to a rebuilding team and most likely lose a year or 2 of potential contention. Desperate would be trading the farm for for a center or trading for Karlsson instead of Provorov and Severson.

 

[Ice9]

I dont think it was desperate as in desperate to win NOW but rather it was desperate in the fact that CBJ HAS TO go you know whats to the wall to land a guy they want. He hits the market and they will be steam rolled by the rest of the league.
Desperate NO...bold and necessary? YES!


"Who dares wins"!!!

 

[koteka]

I wouldn't say it was desperate. I think it would be better to say it was needed to convince him to come to a rebuilding team and most likely lose a year or 2 of potential contention. Desperate would be trading the farm for for a center or trading for Karlsson instead of Provorov and Severson.

I would say he misread the market, traded a 3rd he didn’t need to, and then he signed a contract for longer than he needed. Is it the worst move in the history of hockey? Hopefully not. I think if he had waited until July 1 we would still have had the best offer out there for Severson for only 5 or 6 years.

I also think a first and a third for a guy Philadelphia wanted to move was an overpayment. Especially when I fully expect Provorov to test free agency in two years. I know part of the payment was to get retention, but I also don’t get why we need retention for this season and next. Are we going to spend up to the cap? I would rather have not had retention on Provorov and moved Roslovic if we needed cap space.

 

[BB88]

I actually would like to take more time and do it right. I think we are screwing things up because Jarmo is getting desperate. I also had no problem with the Gudbranson contract because we need a tough guy on the ice and it was only 4 years. Where I think we are screwing up is giving out an 8 year contract to a guy who won’t be good at the end of it. Yzerman hasn’t done that. I also don’t like trading a first for a guy that only has two years on his contract. Yzerman hasn’t done that. Yzerman has identified young guys he didnt think were core players and traded them - like Hronek. We should do some of that. Peeke isn’t core? Trade him while he has some value. Don’t hold on to him and watch his value drop.

Detroit has a much better salary cap situation and has a similar young core with better goalies in the pipeline. Our advantages over them are we bottomed out in what looks like the right year to bottom out and got Fantilli plus a we have a good veteran left defenseman and two good veteran wings. Their young D group led by Seider and Edvinsson is better than our young D group led by Jiricek. They have an established NHL center and we have nothing. The have a first and second round drafted goalie in their system (Cossa, Augustine) while we don’t. We have started to use a lot of our draft picks on skill guys who are undersized and they use draft picks on a variety of people including defensemen with decent size like Shai Baum or Brady Cleveland. In 5 years if you are in the playoffs a physical defenseman will be more valuable than an undersized wing.

Why does Detroit have a better cap situation moving forward?
Columbus cap is in a really good place right now.

& no the talent pools really aren’t close, franchise C is about a must for a team that wants to compete for the Cup and Detroit lacks that, and that’s the most difficult player to acquire

& what makes you think Columbus is doing moves by desperation? They’ve done zero all in moves, they’ve kept all their own picks and prospects. They’ve build a top 2/3 prospect pool in the league while also having high end proven talent on the roster, there’s zero and I mean zero reasons to focus on being a basement level team and keep drafting high, zero.

They’ve done their rebuild via draft phase and should move into phase 2 as they have

There’s not a chance you’d accept a 10 year rebuild and let Jarmo keep his job

 

[Xoggz22]

I am cautiously optimistic, but I think we are at least 2 more years away from making a run at the playoffs. Is that pessimistic? I am shocked people think we can compete for a playoff spot this year. I think we are much more likely to win the draft lottery and pick first or second.

Cautiously optimistic like we won't be 32nd? I don't know how you can be cautiously optimistic and say we're more likely to win the draft lottery and question whether that's pessimistic. I have no problem with anyone that doesn't think we're a playoff team but I think the pessimism on this site right now is more woe is me coming off a complete train wreck of a year.

Now a return to injury like last year and I'll agree with you but you don't have to be a hockey expert, not even a homer, to know the CBJ has more talent on this team than a bottom 5 team. I'll gladly eat crow if we're back here again next year in the same spot. I guess I'm just an optimist because I see the opposite with this team given the recent changes and expected improvements from the return of the injured and player additions. I just can't fathom this team being that bad again.

 

[BB88]

I'll make an assessment when Jarmo is done with the offseason. So far, I love everything he's done in 2023. I believe, at minimum, we need to be playing meaningful games in April.

11th in the East would mean we probably aren't playing meaningful games in April. If that's the case, Jarmo will be fired.

It’s not playoffs or bust.

They need to show clear improvement& that the plan is working

2024/25 is a must season for them

 

[5th Line Fanatic]

It’s not playoffs or bust.

They need to show clear improvement& that the plan is working

2024/25 is a must season for them

I didn't say playoffs or bust.

 

[ProfessorFink22]

Giving severson 8 years knowing damn well he won’t be worth it about half way though that deal was absolutely a desperate move.

Am I the only guy who doesn't think the last three years of that won't be crippling?

Calling Severson a solid #3 Dman right now isn't a stretch. Severson's 6.25 mil is 7.5% of the cap this year. It that bad? I honestly don't know? An 'average' NHL player should be getting about 4.5% of the cap on a 22 man roster, so maybe he's a bit overpaid depending on how you view roster construction (I tend to value a strong d-core more than most).

Let's say the cap, in 5 or 6 or 7 years, is... 100 million? I don't know how to value things like this, but Cap Friendly projects the cap to be 87.5 next year, and predicts a wopping 92 million by 2025... So by the end of Severson's time here, I'm okay projecting 100 million even on the lower end by, let's say, year 6.

Salary Cap by Year

Would he be overpaid getting 6.25% of our team's cap by year 6 of his deal? I'd agree it's likely, but not by that much. If he can even passably be a top 4 dman still, 6.25% of the cap is okay by me.

 

[Marioesque]

Am I the only guy who doesn't think the last three years of that won't be crippling?

Calling Severson a solid #3 Dman right now isn't a stretch. Severson's 6.25 mil is 7.5% of the cap this year. It that bad? I honestly don't know? An 'average' NHL player should be getting about 4.5% of the cap on a 22 man roster, so maybe he's a bit overpaid depending on how you view roster construction (I tend to value a strong d-core more than most).

Let's say the cap, in 5 or 6 or 7 years, is... 100 million? I don't know how to value things like this, but Cap Friendly projects the cap to be 87.5 next year, and predicts a wopping 92 million by 2025... So by the end of Severson's time here, I'm okay projecting 100 million even on the lower end by, let's say, year 6.

Salary Cap by Year

Would he be overpaid getting 6.25% of our team's cap by year 6 of his deal? I'd agree it's likely, but not by that much. If he can even passably be a top 4 dman still, 6.25% of the cap is okay by me.

That's how I see it too

 

[Viqsi]

I would say he misread the market, traded a 3rd he didn’t need to, and then he signed a contract for longer than he needed.

I would point out that Severson was widely regarded as the single best all-around defenseman that was likely to be available on the market and by a not insignificant margin. Given that, concluding that JK "misread the market" by looking at folks who were considered of lower value than him (in many cases substantially lower) strikes me as a bit of a reach.

 

[CoachWithNoTeam]

The irony is not lost on me that we don’t have confidence that we’ll be able to beat the Devils and Sabres, who were coming off 63 and 75 point seasons, respectively, this time last year.

I think it was the goaltending that turned it all around for them.

We all have very selective, short memories.

 

[koteka]

Why does Detroit have a better cap situation moving forward?
Columbus cap is in a really good place right now.

We obviously disagree. No point in arguing. But have you actually gone and looked at their cap situation going forward? I mean 4 years out when both teams are hoping to be serious Cup contenders and might want to add a free agent or two or have to sign a kid to a big contract.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

That looks pretty good to me.