Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

[thebus88]

Now post this year vs Edmonton

Post what vs EDM??

You didn’t watch it did you??

Fast forward halfway through the video.

 

[koteka]

What has the Gm done to suggest he’s better?

He pretty much built the 2 time Stanley Cup winning Tampa Bay Lightning. He drafted Kucherov, Point, Vaselevskiy, etc.

 

[stevo61]

Post what vs EDM??

You didn’t watch it did you??

Fast forward to the end.

I did watch. Edmonton won. He had the year in Columbus where he stood on his head and this year where he had moments but also got dissected. I can pick random spots to show off Elvis too, including those same playoffs where he would have taken the net had he not gotten injured. He lucked into a .946 SV% there I guess.

Either way like I said yesterday Im over the players that are gone, good for Korpi getting his payday I hope for the best for him but I dont lay awake at night wondering what could have been

 

[NotCommitted]

Look, you can call things “unsupported assertion’s” all you want. The number of fans favoring Elvis and the TERRIBLE things said about Korpisalo for YEARS was ridiculous and laughable. Some may need hindsight, I said it THEN.

Sounds like those conversations / debates were crap back then (I wasn't part of them) and they certainly are crap now, when the other guy doesn't even play in the team. Pat yourself in the back and move on.

 

[GoJackets1]

For the record, while that loss was at least half on Elvis (by my count, 2 of those 4 goals were his fault alone) he did have 49 saves in that game, for a .925 SV %.

 

[thebus88]

I did watch. Edmonton won. He had the year in Columbus where he stood on his head and this year where he had moments but also got dissected. I can pick random spots to show off Elvis too, including those same playoffs where he would have taken the net had he not gotten injured. He lucked into a .946 SV% there I guess.

Either way like I said yesterday Im over the players that are gone, good for Korpi getting his payday I hope for the best for him but I dont lay awake at night wondering what could have been

Haha, some of you guys are ridiculous sometimes.

I’m not even really talking Jones or Korpisalo. My point was that Torts coached a defensive style that year, Korpisalo’s SV% and GAA were similar to Elvis, his record was better and was correctly chosen to start in the playoffs and played better in the playoffs than Elvis.

People claim he was so great that year, yet, take nothing else into account.

You didn’t watch the video. It’s Elvis in net, not Korpisalo.

 

[GoJackets1]

Haha, some of you guys are ridiculous sometimes.

I’m not even really talking Jones or Korpisalo. My point was that Torts coached a defensive style that year, Korpisalo’s SV% and GAA were similar to Elvis, his record was better and was correctly chosen to start in the playoffs and played better in the playoffs than Elvis.

People claim he was so great that year, yet, take nothing else into account.

You didn’t watch the video. It’s Elvis in net, not Korpisalo.

Both Korpi and Elvis were exceptional in those playoffs. Korpi and Elvis alternated games in that series vs Toronto. Korpi had a 1.9 GAA and .941 SV% between that series and the Tampa series. Elvis only played 2 games total, and had a 1.96 GAA and .946 SV%.

But the reason he only played two games is because he got hurt, not because Korpi won the job over him. They were both playing extremely, extremely well at that time.

 

[stevo61]

Haha, some of you guys are ridiculous sometimes.

I’m not even really talking Jones or Korpisalo. My point was that Torts coached a defensive style that year, Korpisalo’s SV% and GAA were similar to Elvis, his record was better and was correctly chosen to start in the playoffs and played better in the playoffs than Elvis.

People claim he was so great that year, yet, take nothing else into account.

You didn’t watch the video. It’s Elvis in net, not Korpisalo.

No I didnt watch because the whole thing is tiresome. I guess by coincedence a lot of my post still stands. That particular system was better for goalies compared to earlier Torts systems when "safe is death". It was a good case of out coaching a younger coach. I dont think anyone forgets or cares about all that anymore, we want to see the team improve and win moving forward

 

[thebus88]

For the record, while that loss was at least half on Elvis (by my count, 2 of those 4 goals were his fault alone) he did have 49 saves in that game, for a .925 SV %.

That’s why it’s not good to just look at the stats.

All shots are not equal. At all.

 

[Xoggz22]

When we're back to discussing the rest of the team I'll join in. Otherwise this is nauseating to hash, rehash and bury and dig up and hash and rehash and bury and dig up and hash and rehash and bury and dig up and... yeah... just like that.

For the rest of the thread, I don't know that we'll see much movement before camp. I wouldn't doubt that Jarmo doesn't stick with a waiting game to see what Babcock likes/doesn't like and how he might deploy some of the perceived spare parts. I really don't think there is urgency to move anyone from the back end and hold them to play a value game.

As for the forwards, I think that too can be sorted at camp. One thing I noted reading this new thread (and I'm sure the old one as I know I have been guilty of this in the past)... there is too much worry about waivers and who may or may not clear waivers. I used to be concerned about losing a guy like Foudy or Bemstrom or even Tarasov but after truly thinking about how bad this team was last year and the lack of NHL depth talent I asked myself... "who wants the last forward from the CBJ?" If someone does, what does that truly say about their team? Now that's not to say these guys don't have talent but we've bitched a metric ton about how much Foudy and Bemstrom suck yet we still hold on to them for fear of losing them on waivers. That thinking needs to change. If they aren't one of the top 14 forwards, good luck elsewhere. Hope you find your groove and do well but if it ain't helping this team and they are waived, then that means I have better players than them on the roster. Which, I think, is what we're all ultimately asking right?

Now I realize in that last paragraph it doesn't include decisions based on waiver exemptions, etc. but if Fantilli pushes Bemstrom out to waivers.... so be it. If Foudy pushes Robinson to waivers (granted, of course I think they would look to trade him first)... so be it. Be smart with asset management but don't hold on to something that isn't helping this team for the simple fact of losign them on waivers. you can pick up depth on waivers later if needed.

 

[GoJackets1]

That’s why it’s not good to just look at the stats.

All shots are not equal. At all.

I haven't read the recent posts, but you know for a fact that he faced a large number of higher danger shots than Elvis did, and still performed better than Elvis?

 

[cbjthrowaway]

That’s why it’s not good to just look at the stats.

All shots are not equal. At all.

so, going by comments in this thread you've posted, you simultaneously hold the following positions:

1. production don't reflect how good/bad a player is
2. some shots are inherently harder to stop than others
3. neither elvis nor korpisalo have changed in ability over the last four years
4. korpisalo has always been the better goalie

but we actually can account for #2 by using GSAA. here are each player's numbers in that metric (with identical teams playing in front of them)

Season	Elvis GSAA	Korpi GSAA
2019-20	12.1	1.1
2020-21	7.0	-12.7
2021-22	0.6	-19.0
2022-23	-24.9	6.7

which shows two things:

1. elvis and korpisalo both had similar and steady declines over three years that coincided with team results
2. despite this, elvis's numbers were significantly better in those three years when accounting for shot quality
3. elvis then completely bombed this past season while korpisalo rebounded

at a minimum this should prove that both korpisalo hasn't always been the better goalie (even if he currently is) and that elvis's game, independent of the team in front of him, had a clear and precipitous decline over the last two seasons.

in other words: you can't act like any differences in statistical results are due to differences in shot quality when the actual shot quality numbers show the exact opposite of your point.

 

[thebus88]

Uhhhh, let’s just agree Elvis sucks now, until shown otherwise, and move on.

 

[Marioesque]

Uhhhh, let’s just agree Elvis sucks now, until shown otherwise, and move on.

This is very agreeable!

 

[NotWendell]

so, going by comments in this thread you've posted, you simultaneously hold the following positions:

1. production don't reflect how good/bad a player is
2. some shots are inherently harder to stop than others
3. neither elvis nor korpisalo have changed in ability over the last four years
4. korpisalo has always been the better goalie

but we actually can account for #2 by using GSAA. here are each player's numbers in that metric (with identical teams playing in front of them)

Season	Elvis GSAA	Korpi GSAA
2019-20	12.1	1.1
2020-21	7.0	-12.7
2021-22	0.6	-19.0
2022-23	-24.9	6.7

which shows two things:

1. elvis and korpisalo both had similar and steady declines over three years that coincided with team results
2. despite this, elvis's numbers were significantly better in those three years when accounting for shot quality
3. elvis then completely bombed this past season while korpisalo rebounded

at a minimum this should prove that both korpisalo hasn't always been the better goalie (even if he currently is) and that elvis's game, independent of the team in front of him, had a clear and precipitous decline over the last two seasons.

in other words: you can't act like any differences in statistical results are due to differences in shot quality when the actual shot quality numbers show the exact opposite of your point.

Looks to me like the decline is FOUR years in the making now. It's not all a mental roadblock from the Kivi accident. I fear he may need a change of venue to get his career back on track.

 

[ThisIsMyAlibi]

Can someone tell me why the blue jackets should not trade for Erik Karlsson?

They have the prospect pool muscle. They have contracts to make it match. Which becomes easier with retention, on the end of San Jose.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Looks to me like the decline is FOUR years in the making now. It's not all a mental roadblock from the Kivi accident. I fear he may need a change of venue to get his career back on track.

i don't disagree that a change of scenery would help both parties (if they could find a suitor), but i think it's reductive to say that it's a four-year elvis decline. for one, the team followed a similar trend.

yes, elvis had a decline from year 1 to year 2 (as did korpi) but at the same time, that was the year when they:

1. traded anderson for domi (defensive downgrade)
2. traded PLD for roslovic + laine (blew up their roster build + caused d-zone issues)
3. saw their planned 'shutdown' center (koivu) abruptly retire
4. traded their two go-to defensive skaters (foligno + savard)
5. had a lame duck coach behind the bench
6. finished in the bottom-five in the league

and yet, according to most metrics, elvis was still a top 10-15 goalie that season.

the decline from year 2 to year 3 was apparent at the time, but excusable on some level given the kivi stuff + new rookie coach + roster with even more defensively inept players (voracek, bean, boqvist, sillinger), even if the team finished higher in the standings.

year 3 to 4 is the real concerning one. obviously this is also, by a huge margin, the worst team of the bunch. but his decline is more concerning given just how bad he was + the fact that korpi played pretty well behind the same team.

funny enough, if there's a silver lining here it's that korpi was almost as bad in year 3 (behind a better team) as elvis was in year 4, and managed to bounce back. perhaps elvis can, too (i'm skeptical given the work ethic stuff) – they don't need 19-20 elvis, they just need league average goalie elvis.

Can someone tell me why the blue jackets should not trade for Erik Karlsson?

They have the prospect pool muscle. They have contracts to make it match. Which becomes easier with retention, on the end of San Jose.

yes, he'd be an enormous upgrade over what they have at RHD, but

1. he's not a great fit with werenski
2. adding him to severson + gudbranson would block jiricek/boqvist
3. he has a full NTC and likely wants to go to a team that's closer

the guy i'd pony up for on san jose is hertl. fits a direct need, fits the timeline better, and would give them a sick 1-2 punch at center with fantilli.

 

[thebus88]

Can someone tell me why the blue jackets should not trade for Erik Karlsson?

They have the prospect pool muscle. They have contracts to make it match. Which becomes easier with retention, on the end of San Jose.

Because we just acquired Provorov and Severson??

And he wasn’t the type of defenseman they needed before that.

Any trade like that would need to be for a center at this point.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Can someone tell me why the blue jackets should not trade for Erik Karlsson?

They have the prospect pool muscle. They have contracts to make it match. Which becomes easier with retention, on the end of San Jose.

Because we are not and should not be in "Win Now" mode.

Karlsson may make a good team better but he won't really make a bad team better. Especially one with our issues. Why would we bleed the prospect pool for him? He may have won a Norris Trophy or 2 but that award has very little to do with defense.

 

[Marioesque]

Because we are not and should not be in "Win Now" mode.

Karlsson may make a good team better but he won't really make a bad team better. Especially one with our issues. Why would we bleed the prospect pool for him? He may have won a Norris Trophy or 2 but that award has very little to do with defense.

Yup. We also have a Karlsson-Lite in Boqvist for much cheaper. He also can't defend well but creates a lot offensively. If Babcock needs that kind of player, there already is one in the roster. Of course it is a "we've got McDonalds at home" comparison but the ROI seems better on Boqy.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Would appear that yes, someone can.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Can someone tell me why the blue jackets should not trade for Erik Karlsson?

They have the prospect pool muscle. They have contracts to make it match. Which becomes easier with retention, on the end of San Jose.

33 year old with horrible injury history and 11,5m/4 year contract. Cbj are not in a position to take that kind of gamble. Team likely isnt ready to contend on Karlssons best years. When the team is ready Karlsson will hurt the team because he likely isnt worth the money anymore.

Penguins make sense because they are trying to get one or two more runs in before Crosby gets old and they'll rebuild.

Canes make sense because they're a top 5 NHL team trying to get over the top.

 

[ThisIsMyAlibi]

Yup. We also have a Karlsson-Lite in Boqvist for much cheaper. He also can't defend well but creates a lot offensively. If Babcock needs that kind of player, there already is one in the roster. Of course it is a "we've got McDonalds at home" comparison but the ROI seems better on Boqy.

Karlsson-lite? That seems like a stretch. To assume a prospect will even be an imitation of a 3x Norris winner and best defenseman of his archetype in the modern game.

Because we are not and should not be in "Win Now" mode.

Karlsson may make a good team better but he won't really make a bad team better. Especially one with our issues. Why would we bleed the prospect pool for him? He may have won a Norris Trophy or 2 but that award has very little to do with defense.

Prospects don't pan out all the time. That's why they are called "prospects." It's uncertain. Karlsson, when healthy, is a sure thing.

I think he makes this team better, definitely.

and how long do we expect to wait before "winning" is the expectation here? the season after this one? 3 years?

Because we just acquired Provorov and Severson??

And he wasn’t the type of defenseman they needed before that.

Any trade like that would need to be for a center at this point.

Are those players good enough to block a player of Karlsson's level? No. That's like saying Boone Jenner's presence should prevent you from acquiring Sidney Crosby.

yes, he'd be an enormous upgrade over what they have at RHD, but

1. he's not a great fit with werenski
2. adding him to severson + gudbranson would block jiricek/boqvist
3. he has a full NTC and likely wants to go to a team that's closer

the guy i'd pony up for on san jose is hertl. fits a direct need, fits the timeline better, and would give them a sick 1-2 punch at center with fantilli.

I appreciate your detail and acknowledging he's a huge upgrade over what CBus has currently at RHD.

I personally don't care about blocking prospects. If prospects are that good, you either find a place for them or trade them for commensurate value.

Don't disagree that he'd probably want to go to a team that is "closer"...but how far off do we think/hope CBJ are from being an actual contender? 2 years? 3 years?


Getting Karlsson would show the team is really trying to win. He's under contract four more seasons. We're trying to win during that timeframe, aren't we?

 

[CBJx614]

Karlsson-lite? That seems like a stretch. To assume a prospect will even be an imitation of a 3x Norris winner and best defenseman of his archetype in the modern game.


Prospects don't pan out all the time. That's why they are called "prospects." It's uncertain. Karlsson, when healthy, is a sure thing.

I think he makes this team better, definitely.

and how long do we expect to wait before "winning" is the expectation here? the season after this one? 3 years?


Are those players good enough to block a player of Karlsson's level? No. That's like saying Boone Jenner's presence should prevent you from acquiring Sidney Crosby.


I appreciate your detail and acknowledging he's a huge upgrade over what CBus has currently at RHD.

I personally don't care about blocking prospects. If prospects are that good, you either find a place for them or trade them for commensurate value.

Don't disagree that he'd probably want to go to a team that is "closer"...but how far off do we think/hope CBJ are from being an actual contender? 2 years? 3 years?


Getting Karlsson would show the team is really trying to win. He's under contract four more seasons. We're trying to win during that timeframe, aren't we?

And what do you do if his play declines drastically? And now we not only have a 11M anchor, his possible replacements are now unable to play or have to be traded away.

If you want Jarmo fired, this move would ensure it.

 

[ThisIsMyAlibi]

And what do you do if his play declines drastically? And now we not only have a 11M anchor, his possible replacements are now unable to play or have to be traded away.

If you want Jarmo fired, this move would ensure it.

What do we do if Werenski's play drastically declines? What do we do if Jenner goes full Dubinsky next season? There is uncertainty in every move. There is an equal amount of uncertainty in prospects. Without the ceiling.

As for Jarmo being fired: He's well on his way to make that happen, regardless of Karlsson.