Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

[koteka]

The irony is not lost on me that we don’t have confidence that we’ll be able to beat the Devils and Sabres, who were coming off 63 and 75 point seasons, respectively, this time last year.

I think it was the goaltending that turned it all around for them.

We all have very selective, short memories.

I think their top line centers establishing themselves as stars was kind of important.

Jack Hughes (in his 4th NHL season) put up 99 points. He has 207 points in his career.

Tage Thompson (in his 6th NHL season) put up 94 points. He has 197 points in his career.

 

[koteka]

Cautiously optimistic like we won't be 32nd? I don't know how you can be cautiously optimistic and say we're more likely to win the draft lottery and question whether that's pessimistic. I have no problem with anyone that doesn't think we're a playoff team but I think the pessimism on this site right now is more woe is me coming off a complete train wreck of a year.

Now a return to injury like last year and I'll agree with you but you don't have to be a hockey expert, not even a homer, to know the CBJ has more talent on this team than a bottom 5 team. I'll gladly eat crow if we're back here again next year in the same spot. I guess I'm just an optimist because I see the opposite with this team given the recent changes and expected improvements from the return of the injured and player additions. I just can't fathom this team being that bad again.

If we get 25 more points and finish in the mid 80s in points and move up 10 spots in the standings and show great improvement, we will still have more than a 5% chance of getting one of two lottery balls bouncing our way. That is higher than I place our odds of making the playoffs. Did I ever say we will be a bottom 5 team? I expect to be competing for the playoffs in 25-26. I do not think anything we have done has moved the timeline up. I look at other teams, not only the Blue Jackets, when I make this assessment.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

I think their top line centers establishing themselves as stars was kind of important.

Jack Hughes (in his 4th NHL season) put up 99 points. He has 207 points in his career.

Tage Thompson (in his 6th NHL season) put up 94 points. He has 197 points in his career.

The Devils played good defense, great offense and got respectable but not great goaltending.

Ask anyone with knowledge of the team and that is the position they are potentially looking to upgrade. They could be a possible Hellebuyck destination.

Vanecek was better than expected for them and Schmid could be solid in the long run. Their goaltending was atrocious the year before just like ours last season but they are proof you can turn it around by just getting decent goaltending and playing a much better game in front of the goalie.

 

[CoachWithNoTeam]

I think their top line centers establishing themselves as stars was kind of important.

Jack Hughes (in his 4th NHL season) put up 99 points. He has 207 points in his career.

Tage Thompson (in his 6th NHL season) put up 94 points. He has 197 points in his career.

Oh yeah, my goaltending remark was a joke. Their turnarounds very clearly happened without regard to their bad goaltending on paper.

 

[Xoggz22]

Giving severson 8 years knowing damn well he won’t be worth it about half way though that deal was absolutely a desperate move.

Not a desperate move at all in my opinion. Let's see how he plays first but there is nothing in his game that indicates he's going to decline in 4 years. The last 2 years of the deal have no bonus and can be moved if needed or even bought out but I don't like to think that way. Like GMs, you worry about it when that time hits.

To me, desperate would have been raiding the prospect pool for win now moves. I'm not going to argue that 8 years is good. I too would have preferred 6 but it shouldn't be an anchor and he should be a very good player for us as Jiricek and others come into the fold. He's a veteran that is highly regarded and that's needed long term too.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Not a desperate move at all in my opinion. Let's see how he plays first but there is nothing in his game that indicates he's going to decline in 4 years. The last 2 years of the deal have no bonus and can be moved if needed or even bought out but I don't like to think that way. Like GMs, you worry about it when that time hits.

To me, desperate would have been raiding the prospect pool for win now moves. I'm not going to argue that 8 years is good. I too would have preferred 6 but it shouldn't be an anchor and he should be a very good player for us as Jiricek and others come into the fold. He's a veteran that is highly regarded and that's needed long term too.

In all honesty, I think the only people worried about 8 years from now are the people on these boards. I think GMs today think 3 years out AT MOST. Windows to build and win are that short in this cap era. teams fortunes flip on a dime from 1 year to another based on some moves.

Jarmo or whoever is GM in 4 years will start worrying about Severson's 7th and 8th years then. He structured that deal in such a way that it isn't very damaging to get away from if necessary when that time comes.

 

[VT]

1. Coach - Babcock is a system coach
2. The youngsters will be a year older.
3. Jarmo isn't done yet, besides Babs wants one more veteran

It will be important to keep leaders health.

 

[NotWendell]

During that era the Bluejackets were not to be taken seriously. We knew that.

A new era is upon us, Bluejackets have become favourites but they have to earn it, or else they will feel the wrath of the metro

Favourites at what?!?

In all honesty, I think the only people worried about 8 years from now are the people on these boards. I think GMs today think 3 years out AT MOST. Windows to build and win are that short in this cap era. teams fortunes flip on a dime from 1 year to another based on some moves.

Jarmo or whoever is GM in 4 years will start worrying about Severson's 7th and 8th years then. He structured that deal in such a way that it isn't very damaging to get away from if necessary when that time comes.

True. That could easily be 2 GMs from now.

 

[5th Line Fanatic]

Most NHL rosters turnover 50% every 4 years. Worrying about the roster 8 years from now is nonsense. The vast majority of all people currently paid by the Columbus Blue Jackets will be gone. The only person who'll still be here for sure is Todd Sharrock.

 

[Fro]

Most NHL rosters turnover 50% every 4 years. Worrying about the roster 8 years from now is nonsense. The vast majority of all people currently paid by the Columbus Blue Jackets will be gone. The only person who'll still be here for sure is Todd Sharrock.

And Mike Todd

 

[NotWendell]

And Mike Todd

And Mike Priest

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Most NHL rosters turnover 50% every 4 years. Worrying about the roster 8 years from now is nonsense. The vast majority of all people currently paid by the Columbus Blue Jackets will be gone. The only person who'll still be here for sure is Todd Sharrock.

And Mike Todd

And Mike Priest

Let's not forget Rimer.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Let's not forget Rimer.

No he won't. If he's here after 7 years, then I'll kidnap him and take him to a deserted island. He will be forced to listen to replays of all of his games non stop for the remainder of his life.

 

[koteka]

Kevin Collins?

 

[NotCommitted]

Most NHL rosters turnover 50% every 4 years. Worrying about the roster 8 years from now is nonsense. The vast majority of all people currently paid by the Columbus Blue Jackets will be gone. The only person who'll still be here for sure is Todd Sharrock.

I agree with the general point and that's why you generally draft bpa because you likely don't know what your 'need' would be by the time they are ready to contribute anyway.

A bad long term contract is a bit different though, because while it might not affect the percentage of your roster turnover, it might affect who that turnover is made of As a fan it's natural to worry about those things and most fans stay with a team longer than the GM anyway. I'm sure the GMs worry about it a bit as well, but it's also a (potential) problem for the future, they need to be pragmatic and make acceptable compromises.

 

[EspenK]

If we get 25 more points and finish in the mid 80s in points and move up 10 spots in the standings and show great improvement, we will still have more than a 5% chance of getting one of two lottery balls bouncing our way. That is higher than I place our odds of making the playoffs. Did I ever say we will be a bottom 5 team? I expect to be competing for the playoffs in 25-26. I do not think anything we have done has moved the timeline up. I look at other teams, not only the Blue Jackets, when I make this assessment.

I agree with this in its entirety with some subtle changes.. I would substitute hope for expect to make playoffs in 25-26.
I think 25 more points will be the ceiling but doable. I would put a more realistic target at 80 pts.
I think your considering other teams is an excellent point. Most teams above us last year aren't going to collapse. Maybe Washington but iirc they had a couple of key guys out for long periods of time. I think Pittsburgh with Crosby, Malkin & Letang have at least one "good" year left. The rest of the Metro is not catchable this year imo. Atlantic is now a stronger division than the Metro no big gains to be made there.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Glad they addressed the D, though I disagree with the price for Provorov and the term and AAV for Severson.

But nothing yet to address the goalies. They only added Fantilli (and I guess you could say Texier and Voronkov) up front. Seems pretty unlikely to be much of a trade there now.

I can't believe they've held onto Roslovic and Peeke this long.

The Gudbranson contract is rearing its ugly head already -> Severson, Jiricek, Boqvist, Peeke, Blankenburg all righties, with Ceulemans maybe a year or two away. Boat anchor of a contract.

Anyway, maybe C+/B- for the offseason so far. Lucked into Fantilli, overpaid to overhaul the D corps, but center ice is still a huge question mark and I don't know how you trust either goalie.

 

[EDM]

Another factor is McKowan. Perhaps he could develop into a 2nd line center. His play at the development camp showed he definitely has talent.

 

[MoeBartoli]

Glad they addressed the D, though I disagree with the price for Provorov and the term and AAV for Severson.

But nothing yet to address the goalies. They only added Fantilli (and I guess you could say Texier and Voronkov) up front. Seems pretty unlikely to be much of a trade there now.

I can't believe they've held onto Roslovic and Peeke this long.

The Gudbranson contract is rearing its ugly head already -> Severson, Jiricek, Boqvist, Peeke, Blankenburg all righties, with Ceulemans maybe a year or two away. Boat anchor of a contract.

Anyway, maybe C+/B- for the offseason so far. Lucked into Fantilli, overpaid to overhaul the D corps, but center ice is still a huge question mark and I don't know how you trust either goalie.

How dare you raise the Gudbranson contract as a problem! Didn’t you read the posts when signed that the dollars weren’t that big a deal because we had so much cap room?

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Supposedly DeBrincat has been traded to Detroit. One of the thoughts from some insiders said he was holding up the trade/UFA market and once he goes we could see some activity. (The other thing being the second buyout window).

So I guess we'll see

 

[MissADD]

Supposedly DeBrincat has been traded to Detroit. One of the thoughts from some insiders said he was holding up the trade/UFA market and once he goes we could see some activity. (The other thing being the second buyout window).

So I guess we'll see

This is the most shocking news in the NHL since the Jackets announced that Babcock was their new coach.

 

[VT]

A little stronger forcheking and we can look for DeBrincat with a microscope, not a fact that we can find.

 

[Sdrawkcab321]

Why would a team desperate for talent like Ottawa let him go?

 

[BB88]

Why would a team desperate for talent like Ottawa let him go?

He wouldn’t sign in Ottawa and Detroit was about the only option.

Even though that makes Detroit better for next season longterm wise that’s good for others.
They still lack that forward to be afraid of and have to sign Seider+ Raymond next summer, that’s 18-20M combined if they want them both on longterm contracts
& they still aren’t even quaranteed to make the playoffs next season.

 

[NotTooWideArena]

Another factor is McKowan. Perhaps he could develop into a 2nd line center. His play at the development camp showed he definitely has talent.

This may well be true. I didn't make it to development camp this year but those who did said McKowan was impressive.

But I have a hunch the CBJs second-line center will turn out to be Cole Sillinger. It's easy to forget he just turned 20 a couple of months ago. Yes, he was a dumpster fire most of last season and we have shiny new toys in Fantillii and KJ.

But if Sillinger's as competitive and determined as his father was, he'll learn from the past and move forward. I think he has the tools to fit in well under Babcock. This is definitely just a hunch on my part and it could well be wishful thinking. But I am very curious to see both Sillinger and Chinikhov in training camp.