Prospect Info: Bedard Topic 2

[Giovi]

Have you lived under a rock for a decade? Misery is his middle name.

He has been a very unhappy person for a very long time.

 

[jaysoneil]

just want to see it translate into more wins than losses before giving them credit for knowing what they're doing development wise, they kept Korchinski in the NHL last year instead of sending him back which proved to be idiotic in hindsight and at the time plenty of people said he should go back...personally think Rinzel is the real prize and will end up being the best one out of the group but most pipelines probably have a Crevier/Allan type

More wins and losses from what team though? The current team that they ice? Or the team full of drafted players who are in their second to third year in the NHL and Bedard/Vlasic are in their prime?

The kids in the OHL, NCAA and AHL are playing really good - most in leadership roles also FWIW. If this wasn't the case, I'd be on board with the "no direction, team sucks, im going home" mentality. But zooming out on the rebuild, looking at all the factors objectively, the Hawks are par for the timeline - if not better.

Wouldn't this be ironic:
KD is currently drafting the next modern dynasty, but right before the success, he's canned and replaced by a far less competent GM, yet he reaps the success created by the former.

 

[BHawks77]

Have you lived under a rock for a decade? Misery is his middle name.

Yeah I know but for awhile it wasnt this bad. Then all of a sudden several threads with really negative takes???

 

[Hull2Roenick2Kane]

This hits on a question I have for hawks fans. Purely hypothetical and very unlikely to happen but is there a number that, if offer sheeted you would walk away from and take the 4 first rounders?

Gavin McKenna and 4 firsts... sure.

 

[hawksfan50]

There are 3 main criticisms of Bedard from a stats perspective...then you can add the eye testccritiques..

So:

1. Not enough goals .

There are 2 ways to remedy or a combo of both...

i) increase shot totals..

Bedard has ONLY 115 shog in 49GP = ONLY
2 35 shog/GP
Bedard shooting%= 11.38%
He has 13goals in 49GP = .265 g/GP

To compare with other recent high drafted yutes:

Macklin Celebrini has 138 shog in 41GP
= 3.37 shog/GP
Celebrini shooting % = 11.59%
He has 16 goals in 41GP = .39 g/GP


AdamFantilli has 102shog in 50GP
= 2.04 shog/GP
He has 14 goals in 50GP = 0.28 g/GP
His shooting % is 13.2%

Clearly we expected BOTH a higher shots on goal total from Bedard and a higher shooting % (given his best alleged asset=his generational shot)...but we see Celebrini with a much much higher shog/GP and Fantilli with a much better shooting% despite lower shots per game total.

2. Criticism of Brdards"s faceoff win% = just 32%= unacceptable.

Both Celebrini and Fantilli are also below watering draws...But both are at least acceptable and over 48% and over 46% respectively ...nothing as distrous as thec32% of Bedard on draws.(which is Down from38% last season).


3. Bedard being at -22 alraady in the +/- ...Celebrini also bad at -20 in 9GP less!!!
Fantilli a more respectable -4....

NOW ...we have to be fair.. both Bedard and Celebrini play for the 2nd worst and worst teams in the NHL whike Fantilli plays on a better Columbus team which has pkayoff aspirations this season and is playing well.now late in January..

Also yo be fair...Chicago is tied for 2nd with Buffalo for most en goals against (16) but SJ also tied with several teams near the Hawks (14 en goals against(...Columbus amongst the best ...only allowing 7 en goals against....so safe to assume both Bedard and Celebrini on the ice for a vast majority of the high en goal aginst their teams have given up ...Maybe Columbus does dot even use Fantilli in such situations and if not he is sheltered from such risk (which is relatively low for his team anyway).

This if we discount en goals against when they are on the ice which counts in the +/-, those bad minus totals for Bedard and Celebrini could be not so bad in non-en Evens situations..

So I am willing to cut Bedard some statistical slack for his poor +/- given his use in en situations is high..

But I am not cutting humany slack for poorer than expected shog totals..Shoukd be a kot higher..If Cekebrini can achieve so many more shog and shog /GO what is wrong with Bedard not achieving nea the same level given both used so much and on top line and PP1 for their teams..
Also not cutting Bedard any slack for pretty mediocre shooting ..with his shot...his best alleged weapon, Bedard should at above 15%...

In combination Bedard SHOULD and needs to be a lot better in shog/GP and in shootibg% to become an impact ekute NHL goal scorer

So Bedard gets a D-in Shog/GP and gets a C + In shooting % abd anF in faceoff win%..
These he must vastly improve on else he getsa failing grade in NHL elite top stars grade.

HOVEVER while I would like to see him outscore his defensive issues,I believe the high negative +/- stat he has will cone down by some amount as the team improves around him.. both en goals against should decline and his goals and poibts totals ar evens should rise...

4.There is however 1 non-statistical criticism to add...this is the eye test on Bedard's defensive effort and focus...At times that focus not there...some shofts puts sone effort unto more back-checking ..but he is never going to be a Selke level 2-way player.. I just want a bit more consistent effort and attention to detail ...less watching from behind his check...more consistent effort to gain loose pucks in the d-zone and better focus anticipating where the puck goes when opps attack his d-zone...you HOPE he gets at keast 50% better defensiveky ..but be honest ...there probably is a limit to any improvement in his defensive responsibility.

 

[hawksfan50]

Avtuakky U have critiqued Bedard for NOT being able to create the space to get his best shot off. OFTEN ENOUGH...thuscthecrelativeky low shotsvon goal per game number and the too many blocked and missed shots.. with hisxwhip shot he ought to actualky have a kot more goals flying past opps goalies..
..
So I dispute that Brdard does not need otherscto setvupnhis shot..his solo puck carry and release isxactuakkyvtoo low for the hype created...you dobsee flashesxof the geberstuobalbshot ..but if he truly wants to get norevgoals he must get off morecshotsvon net and get clear of his checkers more.to get more releases off.

Another way is to play with morevtalentedcplaymking wingersxwho can carry pucksvin (so he does notvhavevto( and to just let himsetbup in clearer shot lanes via off puck searches for open shotblanes...if you can't get through the clog yourself,you need help from others to puck carry then dish to you.
.

 

[Hull2Roenick2Kane]

I know you said Fantilli has a better team and that has a lot to do with Werenski being a premiere defender. which contributes to his respectable +/- and his point totals. otherwise I dont really disagree with much of what you said. Personally, I give Bedard the same leeway as I give Caleb Williams.

That being said what FAs do you like and who would you think could help if installed for next year?

 

[SimpleJack]

I don't see any reason for Bedard to consider signing long-term with Hawks

Why should he commit to an organization that appears to have no plan to support him or direction as a franchise?

No direction? It couldn't be any more clear that we're in 100% full throttle rebuild mode rn....and I guarantee you he knows this, understands the process, and would be more than happy to commit long term to a major market original 6 franchise that's going to be oozing with young talent and cap space to load up when the time is right, and the targeted window of opportunity as a potential/hopeful Cup contender lines up perfectly with Bedard's prime years as an athlete(ages 21-27). Why on earth would he bail out on all of this?