Are things as bad as we're saying?

[ShaneFalco]

Perhaps this somewhat crappy start is a blessing in disguise? These guys are going to learn early you can't just out-fancy the opponent. Different combos have been tried with the injuries, we realize early we need an upgrade at the back-up - although I don't think Hutch has been horrible. We get to test out a few guys (Shore, Petan, Spezza) to see if there's a fit.
New guys, new assistants......

Maybe I'm being too impatient and frustrated too early.

 

[ULF_55]

Last game against the Habs it was certainly an issue with a tired team playing the most back to backs and the most games in the NHL while short staffed. How tired did the D look on those breakaways? The first was a sloppy turnover by Soupy that the D had no chance to catch Drouin and the other two were also tired looking plays by the D. If it was a blown coverage I would agree.

Most games it hasnt been as big a problem and schedule and injuries do matter. Im glad Holl has looked like he finally grabbed that 6 slot as Dermott is going to be a massive upgrade. Getting the best 5 in hockey last year instead of the revolving door of mediocrity is going to be noticeable.

Also cant let recency bias change the fact goaltending has been among the worst in the league and yet the team is still 6-5-2. Bring that save% up to average and whats the teams record? How about their average over the last 3 years?

I dont think we'd be hearing the sky is falling as we'd be anywhere from 9-4 to 10-3 on the season and folks might even be praising the D.

Lets just let this play out a bit longer as the team comes together. It may actually be a boon to us that we have the worst of our schedule in the first 3rd of the season.

There is no option but to play it out.

But it really hasn't been a good team for most of the calendar year.

This is just a continuation of their trend from last January.

Something has to change, because they haven't been good enough ever since Babcock took over.

Improved from a league worst team, certainly, but remaining a league worst team is extremely difficult to do. When you add players like Matthews and Tavares you'd hope any team with any coach could improve from bottom of the league.

 

[Zybalto]

Whats definitely not spin is that its getting near the end of October and Anderson is starting to play well again (why does he do that every year, its maddening), so we are still stuck with the backup goalie issue going forward. I think they are going to give Hutch a little more rope as they are just as aware of the schedule as we are and having to play rested motivated teams in some cases may have been a little unfair to Hutch.

 

[Mess]

Leafs wins seem to come when Andersen is able to stop most of the odd man rushes or breakaways.

Habs beat the Leafs with what, 3 breakaway goals?

Yeah, defending is the issue.

Swapping out guys like Hainsey for Barrie and Zaitsev for Ceci doesn't make the Leafs better defensively, those are moves that make the Leafs better offensively.

Leafs are assembled to outscore their mistakes and breakdowns so Leafs will be near the top of the league offensively (which you would expect because 1/2 your cap is spent on 4 forwards) and near the bottom of the league defensively..

As long as Leafs goal differential remains flat then one should expect a .500 teams when GF = GA.

 

[Zybalto]

There is no option but to play it out.

But it really hasn't been a good team for most of the calendar year.

This is just a continuation of their trend from last January.

Something has to change, because they haven't been good enough ever since Babcock took over.

Improved from a league worst team, certainly, but remaining a league worst team is extremely difficult to do. When you add players like Matthews and Tavares you'd hope any team with any coach could improve from bottom of the league.

Oh, I agree, and I think I found a problem.

From Jan. 1st to now, the Leafs team save% ranks 21st (23rd 5v5).

The previous year and a half, it ranked 3rd overall (4th 5v5).

Not to mention that Andersen was once against the 2nd best keeper in a playoff round.

Now there are a few reasons for this that make it not so scary but Im pretty sure if, say, Matthews went from scoring 40 goals to 10 goals a season, we would notice. Theres a great reluctance to notice this for some reason though.....and it effects the team to a much greater degree.

 

[ULF_55]

Oh, I agree, and I think I found a problem.

From Jan. 1st to now, the Leafs team save% ranks 21st (23rd 5v5).

The previous year and a half, it ranked 3rd overall (4th 5v5).

Not to mention that Andersen was once against the 2nd best keeper in a playoff round.

Now there are a few reasons for this that make it not so scary but Im pretty sure if, say, Matthews went from scoring 40 goals to 10 goals a season, we would notice. Theres a great reluctance to notice this for some reason though.....and it effects the team to a much greater degree.

I think Andersen is okay.

 

[TheShape]

They are as bad as they seem. It’s been stated, look at this team’s record dating back to December 2018. This isn’t just a bad month.

The team needs a different voice behind the bench and some fresh ideas.

 

[smitty10]

I think Babs has lost the room. This team doesn't want to go to battle for him and have low morale. Time for a change behind the bench Dubas!

 

[Dragao6]

When you have 3 guys making/Demanding 11M$ and everyone seems to think this team needs Hyman and Dermott to improve then yes there is a problem and it's not small!

 

[Advanced stats]

Leafs are 8th. worst defensive team in the league.

That's all you need to know.

Newsflash: Andersen sucks in October.

2017-2018 October, leafs were 7th in goals against
2018-19 October, leafs were 10th in goals against.

This is just October Andersen.

 

[ULF_55]

Newsflash: Andersen sucks in October.

2017-2018 October, leafs were 7th in goals against
2018-19 October, leafs were 10th in goals against.

This is just October Andersen.

Perhaps, but how good were the Leafs from January to today?

And they've had a losing record in the playoffs for 3 straight year.

Interstingly, a team can have a winning record in the playoffs and lose in the 2nd. round.

 

[ottomaddox]

So team save% craters from top 10 to bottom 5 in the league despite an improvement in in overall underlying D stats and Im spinning?

Everyone plays their part. Some nights Matthews misses his assignments, some nights it's Kapanen or Muzzin. The goalies are playing their part too. No one is safe on this mediocre hockey team.

 

[Zybalto]

I think Andersen is okay.

I do too but dont ignore the fact that the Leafs bad record this calander year perfectly correlates with a dramatic drop in team save %, despite everything we use to track defensive numbers at worst equal to the previous year and a half.

Occam's razor applies here does it not?

They went from top top 5 to bottom ten in maybe the most important area in hockey. Why is this just being swept away?

 

[Mess]

Just 2 seasons ago 2017-18 the Leafs were at the top of their peak competitiveness as Leafs set a All-time franchise record in points 105 and wins 49 after 100 years.

The GM Lou Lam and Coach Babcock were in lock step and synergy between roster configuration and player usage demonstrated that both were both on the same page, which is mission critical to team success.

Nobody was screaming for "Fire Babcock" after he took a team that finished last overall (to draft Matthews) to playoff spot against Washington and then finished 3rd in Adam trophy voting as best coach in the NHL a year later.

There is a wise old saying " if it ain't broke, don't fix it".

However Leafs replaced their GM despite setting new team records, and now fans scream the coach is the problem and needs to go, and the team has been in consistent decline since Leafs changed GMs and now current GM and Babcock are on different pages on player personnel and style of play beliefs.. GM continues to remove players the coach relied own for his system to be successful. This will eventually now lead to the inevitable dismissal of Babcock as management is pulling the rope on opposite ends.

The philosophical difference between young GM and longtime experienced coach is now the #1 issue impacting the on ice results. We're about to find out if "the ends justify the means". However setting a new 100 team record and then removing both GM and Coach is logistically backwards thinking that it makes your team more Cup competitive. Soon we will be relying on a young GM and likely young inexperienced future coach in Sheldon Keefe, without any proven NHL track record.

 

[Bomber0104]

When you have 3 guys making/Demanding 11M$ and everyone seems to think this team needs Hyman and Dermott to improve then yes there is a problem and it's not small!

That's pretty much where I'm at.

Anyone expecting Travis Dermott to rescue our defence is kidding themselves at this point.

 

[AreBe]

Positionless hockey - go! Go! Go!
Shinny, shinny, Shinny!
Roll 4 lines, Soviet Red Army style, crazy fast flow
But need to drill 2 on 1 coverage because plainly Leafs do not know it, and to deny that is just silly!

 

[Durrr]

2 points out of 11th spot in the conference, all teams behind us with at least 2 games in hand. Seems bad to me. 13 games is a pretty good sample size IMO. The good news is we have a head start on Babcock Departure Watch.


View attachment 270135

These are the kind of things that show you how out of proportion things are being blown, despite the fact that I do think Babs has to go based on his body of work here and coaching mismatch with the roster.

How about instead of looking down, you look up? We are 2 points from 4th in the conference as well and 4 from 3rd/5 from second. It's early, and we play that second placed team tonight. We have a ton of talent on the roster, they will win more games then they lose in the end.

 

[Superstar]

Positionless hockey - go! Go! Go!
Shinny, shinny, Shinny!
Roll 4 lines, Soviet Red Army style, crazy fast flow
But need to drill 2 on 1 coverage because plainly Leafs do not know it, and to deny that is just silly!

Sure...but then there's a Bobby Clarke on the other team breaking the ankles of our star players with no repercussions and no push back...

 

[ottomaddox]

Newsflash: Andersen sucks in October.

2017-2018 October, leafs were 7th in goals against
2018-19 October, leafs were 10th in goals against.

This is just October Andersen.

How does he do in April?

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

These are the kind of things that show you how out of proportion things are being blown, despite the fact that I do think Babs has to go based on his body of work here and coaching mismatch with the roster.

How about instead of looking down, you look up? We are 2 points from 4th in the conference as well and 4 from 3rd/5 from second. It's early, and we play that second placed team tonight. We have a ton of talent on the roster, they will win more games then they lose in the end.

Nah, looking up that team also has 2 games in hand. Once the schedule evens out and everyone has played more or less the same number of games, it will be more obvious how mediocre the team is right now. I'm not saying they can't turn it around but something is clearly way, way off.

 

[Advanced stats]

How does he do in April?

Really good in the playoffs actually.

 

[ottomaddox]

Really good in the playoffs actually.

Is this a joke?

 

[Advanced stats]

Is this a joke?

.922, .915 and .896 in the last 3 years? Clearly the .896 is an outlier. Considering we've played Boston x 2 and Washington, Andersen has done well.

Even his aniheim playoff stats are great. He's like a .917 career playoff goalie.

 

[BlueForever75]

Too me they are playing like a bunch of figure skaters. No one wants to hit and battle. No one wants to stick up for one another. There is no doubt that this team is really skilled. But its not build as it should be. There needs to be a influx of blue collar guys to play with these ballerinas. Someone hits Matthews, or Barrie, or Marner…...no one is there to stick up for them. That is the issue.

Once Hyman comes back this will assist a bit. Dermott will help out a bit as well. So will Tavares obviously. The team will start producing and winning again.

My concern is the start of this season has shown why they will never succeed in the playoffs. They are too soft.

Dubas needs to make some changes and it starts with trading Johnsson. We don't need him, and we should be able to get a player that infuses some blue collar mentality in this team.

 

[ottomaddox]

.922, .915 and .896 in the last 3 years? Clearly the .896 is an outlier. Considering we've played Boston x 2 and Washington, Andersen has done well.

Even his aniheim playoff stats are great. He's like a .917 career playoff goalie.

Andersen has never won a playoff series.

Patrick Lalime looked pretty good for Ottawa years ago, but he could never really win for them when push came to shove. His career save % .926.

When I speak to Advanced Stats people I feel like I am talking to player agents who just paint pretty pictures of their clients.