Are things as bad as we're saying?

[biotk]

I don't think any stats or logical person on here would disagree with you. You're spot on.

The Leafs have been unlucky, plain and simple. The PDO and on-ice stats back that up clear as day. Leaf fans just have to be patient, but you've seen how impatient these people are lol.

The Leafs have a PDO at 5v5 so far this year of 0.988, which is common for bottom 10 teams in the NHL, but is low for the Leafs over the past couple years, and could be indicative of bad luck, but could also be indicative of a team that is either not very good or of a team that is playing like ass.

The Leafs have played really poorly this year. They put in little effort at either end of the ice (but unsurprisingly the few Leafs' who have been putting in effort do have high PDOs). Do people think that the Leafs' should just magically have a PDO of 102?

 

[LeafingTheWay]

The Leafs have a PDO at 5v5 so far this year of 0.988, which is common for bottom 10 teams in the NHL, but is low for the Leafs over the past couple years, and could be indicative of bad luck, but could also be indicative of a team that is either not very good or of a team that is playing like ass.

The Leafs have played really poorly this year. They put in little effort at either end of the ice (but unsurprisingly the few Leafs' who have been putting in effort do have high PDOs). Do people think that the Leafs' should just magically have a PDO of 102?

The Leafs have a SV% of 88.3%.

Anderesen's SV% right now is 90.4%, while his career average is 91.7%. Remarkbly, Andersen's SV% has been so consistent throughout his career. He's had 91.8%, 91.8%, 91.7% for the years he's been with the Leafs, and has had 91.9%, 91.4%, 92.3% before that with Anaheim.

We've played 3 back-to-backs, which is unprecedented, and Hutchinson has played far below his career-average as well. Tavares, Hyman, Dermottt have also all been out.

 

[biotk]

The Leafs have a SV% of 88.3%.

They don't. Is their SV% lower than it has been over the last couple years? Yes. But teams that play badly usually have low sv%.

Anderesen's SV% right now is 90.4%, while his career average is 91.7%. Remarkbly, Andersen's SV% has been so consistent throughout his career. He's had 91.8%, 91.8%, 91.7% for the years he's been with the Leafs, and has had 91.9%, 91.4%, 92.3% before that with Anaheim.

Andersen usually had a team in front of him that showed to up play hockey.

We've played 3 back-to-backs, which is unprecedented

The Islanders have 3 back-to-backs in their first 13 games. Traveling involved in all of them. Great record. Actually showed up to play. Florida had 3 back-to-backs in their first 12 games. Montreal has 3 back-to-backs in their first 13 games.

Detroit had 3 back-to-backs in their first 10 games - in the first 18 days of their season (Toronto's 3 occurred over 24 days).

I found that out with the first 8 teams I looked up the schedules for. Unprecedented my ass.

It is an amazing amount of whining and bellyaching and conspiracy theories instead of just accepting that the Leafs' stars have been highly paid for embarrassingly little effort.

and Hutchinson has played far below his career-average as well.

Goalie stats look bad when the team in front of the goalie doesn't show up.

Tavares, Hyman, Dermottt have also all been out.

Lots of teams have to deal with injuries. Teams with character rise to meet the challenge. Teams without collapse.

 

[GardinerTheForward]

PDO, injuries and the schedule are just EXCUSES!

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

The Leafs have a PDO at 5v5 so far this year of 0.988, which is common for bottom 10 teams in the NHL, but is low for the Leafs over the past couple years, and could be indicative of bad luck, but could also be indicative of a team that is either not very good or of a team that is playing like ass.

The Leafs have played really poorly this year. They put in little effort at either end of the ice (but unsurprisingly the few Leafs' who have been putting in effort do have high PDOs). Do people think that the Leafs' should just magically have a PDO of 102?

I agree. Although the Leafs have good shooting and goaltending talent, I would expect a mediocre/low PDO. They're good at controlling the quantity of chances they allow/generate, but they are near the bottom in terms of quality. So i'd expect lower sv% and sh%

 

[Gabriel426]

for a while I thought Babs is the problem bc when you look at the players that left the Leafs, they ended up playing a lot better than they were with the Leafs.
How did Berube make Bozak into a more defensive C that actually back checks and hits? Leo and Martin could not make the Leafs lineup but ended up playing strong bottom 6 hockey with the Isles. Jake seems to be playing better in Canes(small sample size though). Same with Zai, not saying he is great but he looks much better than he was with the Leafs. Won’t comment about Leivo and Brown as there just not enough room for them with the Leafs.
However, I am starting to see Babs might not be the problem. The players just don’t stand up for one another. Willie, Matthews, JT, Mitch, Reilly.... I don’t understand why that is the case.

 

[ZEBROA]

They might hate the system or the way Babcock leads and that could be eating on the players. A coach biggest mission should be to create a enviroment and game system that make players grow. The old times, im the boss and should be obeyed no matter what will not get the best out of the players. But i got no idea how he leads behind closed doors. The players dont seem to stand behind his plans. They dont seem to have fun.

Old news but: Zetterberg about Babcock leaving for Toronto: " -Everybody think its a delight playing this year " " Now we got a coach that wants to play offensive not only defensive"

Only one player , but thats not good. You must realy not like the coach if you say these things to media. And theres no secret they did not go together well.

 

[hoglund]

Expectations were so high, which is why many are making the start to be worse than it really is. The Leafs have 14 points in 13 games which is on pace for 88 or 89 points, which is probably 8 points short of a playoff spot. There are 69 games left and October has been a difficult schedule with 4 back to backs. There is reason for concern, but hitting the panic button would be a over reaction, if they're still struggling around Christmas, then I can understand that something needs to be done.

 

[ULF_55]

Expectations were so high, which is why many are making the start to be worse than it really is. The Leafs have 14 points in 13 games which is on pace for 88 or 89 points, which is probably 8 points short of a playoff spot. There are 69 games left and October has been a difficult schedule with 4 back to backs. There is reason for concern, but hitting the panic button would be a over reaction, if they're still struggling around Christmas, then I can understand that something needs to be done.

They do have to stay close.

I know St. Louis, but how often does that happen?

What exactly turned the under performing Blues around?

Leafs are tied with the Flames in 19th. for point percentage.

That's where they should be based on how they've played.

 

[hoglund]

They do have to stay close.

I know St. Louis, but how often does that happen?

What exactly turned the under performing Blues around?

Leafs are tied with the Flames in 19th. for point percentage.

That's where they should be based on how they've played.

Making the playoffs isn't easy that's why it seemed crazy when fans were saying "if the Leafs don't get past round 1 Babcock should be fired", ah they have to make the playoffs first. People need to understand that half the teams miss the playoffs and every team has the same or similar salary because of the cap. The Leafs were predicted to win the by many, which made expectations too high, that's why fans are panicking. Don't worry, yet...

 

[Nineteen67]

Crosby is a rare breed.... Most elite level players it takes loosing for them to understand that it takes putting compete before your skill of the entire group for a team to contend for a championship. Gretzky and the mighty Oilers suffered playoff failors before they became a dynasty with the ever famous moment when they past the NYI dressing room that made it click for them for what it takes. Brett Hull 86 goal season was in large done by playing loosing hockey kind of with how Matthews trends to play like. It wasn't until Hitchcock got his hands on him and the desire to win over took the desire to score goals when he started playing winning hockey. Yzerman Bowman was about to trade him if he didn't change how he played and put compete before scoring goals. There's plenty more examples. It's Unfortunate but worth going through some loosing right now. It's the loosing that will change the top end of the roster to get into playing winning hockey.

One of the main factors that separates Sid from his peers is his work ethic. During these rebuilding years these young Leafs have to learn what it takes to win and as they grow and develop their time may come. Although, something that should concern us Leafs fans is that two core players in particular, Matthews and Nylander, don’t appear to have the work ethic and the compete level to be champions. From day one Crosby and Bergeron used their work ethic and compete level to enhance their God given talent which allowed them to win Olympic Gold medals and Stanley Cups.

 

[ottomaddox]

Expectations were so high, which is why many are making the start to be worse than it really is. The Leafs have 14 points in 13 games which is on pace for 88 or 89 points, which is probably 8 points short of a playoff spot. There are 69 games left and October has been a difficult schedule with 4 back to backs. There is reason for concern, but hitting the panic button would be a over reaction, if they're still struggling around Christmas, then I can understand that something needs to be done.

Please tone down the innuendos.

Thanks.

 

[ULF_55]

Leafs are 8th. worst defensive team in the league.

That's all you need to know.

 

[Zybalto]

I agree. Although the Leafs have good shooting and goaltending talent, I would expect a mediocre/low PDO. They're good at controlling the quantity of chances they allow/generate, but they are near the bottom in terms of quality. So i'd expect lower sv% and sh%

Your half right on this.

Despite being near the top of the league in corsi for and scoring chances for, creating high danger chances has been an unusual problem for the Leafs this year which very well may account for their lower shooting %. New teammates, the absence of their top line this year and brutal schedule may be contributing to this but it is obviously a problem. Going the other way though...

Even though they have dipped a little the last few games (probably due to the double back to backs), 5v5 scoring chances against and high danger chances against rank 16th fewest and 18th fewest in the league.

Heres a quick comparison to last year defensively 5v5:

2018-2019:

corsi against/60: 59.33 (27th fewest in the NHL)
shots against/60: 32.66 (27th fewest in the NHL)
coring chances against/60: 28.27 (25th fewest in the NHL)
high danger chances against/60: 10.69 (18th fewest in the NHL)

team save%: 92.28 (7th in the NHL)


2019-2020:

corsi against/60: 55.47 (18th fewest in the NHL)
shots against/60: 31.14 (23rd fewest in the NHL)
coring chances against/60: 24.43 (16th fewest in the NHL)
high danger chances against/60: 9.31 (18th fewest in the NHL)

team save%: 89.75 (27th in the NHL)

Despite the schedule and injuries, the team is noticeably better defensively overall. I still cannot fathom how so many are missing how bad the goalkeeping has been and are stuck in a collective groupthink about Babcock and "sticking up for teammates" or whatever else is out there.....and yes, our stars have been inconsistent so far bouncing around different lines or with new partners alltogether but the keepers are the only reason this team isnt at least a couple of wins higher.

 

[thewave]

They do have to stay close.

I know St. Louis, but how often does that happen?

What exactly turned the under performing Blues around?

Leafs are tied with the Flames in 19th. for point percentage.

That's where they should be based on how they've played.

100 out of 100 times I would not try and hope/pray for a repeat of what St Louis did. It's the most unlikely thing to have happen. If this team full of rentals as it is doesn't look like a PO team or contender you've got some serious decisions to make.

 

[ULF_55]

team save%: 89.75 (27th in the NHL)

Despite the schedule and injuries, the team is noticeably better defensively overall. I still cannot fathom how so many are missing how bad the goalkeeping has been and are stuck in a collective groupthink about Babcock and "sticking up for teammates" or whatever else is out there.....and yes, our stars have been inconsistent so far bouncing around different lines or with new partners alltogether but the keepers are the only reason this team isnt at least a couple of wins higher.

Leafs wins seem to come when Andersen is able to stop most of the odd man rushes or breakaways.

Habs beat the Leafs with what, 3 breakaway goals?

Yeah, defending is the issue.

 

[Nineteen67]

Leafs are 8th. worst defensive team in the league.

That's all you need to know.

who is worse?

 

[ottomaddox]

Your half right on this.

Despite being near the top of the league in corsi for and scoring chances for, creating high danger chances has been an unusual problem for the Leafs this year which very well may account for their lower shooting %. New teammates, the absence of their top line this year and brutal schedule may be contributing to this but it is obviously a problem. Going the other way though...

Even though they have dipped a little the last few games (probably due to the double back to backs), 5v5 scoring chances against and high danger chances against rank 16th fewest and 18th fewest in the league.

Heres a quick comparison to last year defensively 5v5:

2018-2019:

corsi against/60: 59.33 (27th fewest in the NHL)
shots against/60: 32.66 (27th fewest in the NHL)
coring chances against/60: 28.27 (25th fewest in the NHL)
high danger chances against/60: 10.69 (18th fewest in the NHL)

team save%: 92.28 (7th in the NHL)


2019-2020:

corsi against/60: 55.47 (18th fewest in the NHL)
shots against/60: 31.14 (23rd fewest in the NHL)
coring chances against/60: 24.43 (16th fewest in the NHL)
high danger chances against/60: 9.31 (18th fewest in the NHL)

team save%: 89.75 (27th in the NHL)

Despite the schedule and injuries, the team is noticeably better defensively overall. I still cannot fathom how so many are missing how bad the goalkeeping has been and are stuck in a collective groupthink about Babcock and "sticking up for teammates" or whatever else is out there.....and yes, our stars have been inconsistent so far bouncing around different lines or with new partners alltogether but the keepers are the only reason this team isnt at least a couple of wins higher.

What?

This is a very curious spin. Do you do PR for the Leafs?

I watched Tor allow MTL 2-3 breakaways in their last meeting. How does that make any sense that the defense has improved? Our team defense is reminiscent of Saturday Night Shinny in Trinity Bellwoods Park.

You're asking us to take a leap of faith here.

 

[ULF_55]

who is worse?

Kings
Rangers
Devils
Panthers
Wings
Sharks
Blue Jackets

 

[Gary Nylund]

Kings
Rangers
Devils
Panthers
Wings
Sharks
Blue Jackets

I feel better already.

 

[Zybalto]

Leafs wins seem to come when Andersen is able to stop most of the odd man rushes or breakaways.

Habs beat the Leafs with what, 3 breakaway goals?

Yeah, defending is the issue.

Last game against the Habs it was certainly an issue with a tired team playing the most back to backs and the most games in the NHL while short staffed. How tired did the D look on those breakaways? The first was a sloppy turnover by Soupy that the D had no chance to catch Drouin and the other two were also tired looking plays by the D. If it was a blown coverage I would agree.

Most games it hasnt been as big a problem and schedule and injuries do matter. Im glad Holl has looked like he finally grabbed that 6 slot as Dermott is going to be a massive upgrade. Getting the best 5 in hockey last year instead of the revolving door of mediocrity is going to be noticeable.

Also cant let recency bias change the fact goaltending has been among the worst in the league and yet the team is still 6-5-2. Bring that save% up to average and whats the teams record? How about their average over the last 3 years?

I dont think we'd be hearing the sky is falling as we'd be anywhere from 9-4 to 10-3 on the season and folks might even be praising the D.

Lets just let this play out a bit longer as the team comes together. It may actually be a boon to us that we have the worst of our schedule in the first 3rd of the season.

 

[Morbo]

100 out of 100 times I would not try and hope/pray for a repeat of what St Louis did. It's the most unlikely thing to have happen. If this team full of rentals as it is doesn't look like a PO team or contender you've got some serious decisions to make.

you could play another 100 years and not have that happen again. It's so ridiculously unlikely to have a team in last place that late in the year become the Cup champion.

 

[Zybalto]

What?

This is a very curious spin. Do you do PR for the Leafs?

I watched Tor allow MTL 2-3 breakaways in their last meeting. How does that make any sense that the defense has improved? Our team defense is reminiscent of Saturday Night Shinny in Trinity Bellwoods Park.

You're asking us to take a leap of faith here.

So team save% craters from top 10 to bottom 5 in the league despite an improvement in in overall underlying D stats and Im spinning?

 

[Morbo]

Leafs are 8th. worst defensive team in the league.

That's all you need to know.

not really. where does their goaltending rank?

 

[hotpaws]

the teams been mediocre for almost a full year

while i don't believe Babs is the biggest or only problem it's time he gets replaced and Dube gets his boy behind the bench

if things stay the same with Keefe then Shanny turfs Dubas and we get a GM who's goal isn't to build the softest team in the league