Are Matthews and Tavares Franchise #1 C's

[JadedLeaf]

But it's true though.

View attachment 131795

5v5 you can see that Nylander is in the 94th percentile when it comes to shot contributions (Shot Assists + Shots per 60). Where as Marner's in the 81st percentile. He's also better when it comes to possession, plays harder comp, and for the most part has had much harder zone starts.

Marner is still a fantastic player, and I'm not trying to bring him down in any way. He's just the Canadian boy that tries hard and loved the Leafs since being little. It's like people want him to be better so they believe he's better, when in reality they're very similar players with imo a slight edge to Nylander.

The difference really was how ****in' good Marner was on the PP.

Why is there only 58 games and 60 games tracked? Did they use Marners first 30 games in that where we all agree he wasn't very good or are they using his last 60 where he was playing at an elite level?

 

[Fogelhund]

Elite, Franchise Center, Which one is the first line C, Which one is the second line C....'

How about, they either won us the Cup, or they didn't.

Sundin was great, Elite, Franchise C... no cups.
Gilmour was great, Elite... no cups.

I don't care what you call these guys, whether Marner or Nylander is better, if Matthews is Elite, Franchise C, generational, or whatever... win the damned Cup.

 

[Jack Bauer]

Oh I didn't mean to imply Nylander isn't a great player because I think he is as well. I 'm just higher on Marner then Nylander. Marner had a terrible first 3o games of the season and produced at a franchise player level the rest of the season. Whether it's on the pp or not is irrelevant, throughout an entire 60 minute game I just think Marner is better.

We make the argument about pp time with Matthews because he gets barely any. Next season when/if Matthews gets more pp time and produces more, are we going to dismiss that as well because it's not at even strength? I get that pp time is less stable and depends largely on how much pp time your team gets on average but it's still a part of the game that affects the outcome one way or another.

Just watching the game though, Marner's vision is much better then Nylander. General effort looks a lot better as well. I hate arguing about which of our own players are better though because it always comes across as crapping the other player and that's just not how I feel about Nylander at all. He's a great player and will get better. Maybe next season he does something to make me feel like he's better then Marner, right now I don't and it's just my opinion.

Exactly.

You can watch the 80's Oilers and prefer Gretzky without taking a crap on Messier.

 

[IPS]

But it's true though.

View attachment 131795

5v5 you can see that Nylander is in the 94th percentile when it comes to shot contributions (Shot Assists + Shots per 60). Where as Marner's in the 81st percentile. He's also better when it comes to possession, plays harder comp, and for the most part has had much harder zone starts.

Marner is still a fantastic player, and I'm not trying to bring him down in any way. He's just the Canadian boy that tries hard and loved the Leafs since being little. It's like people want him to be better so they believe he's better, when in reality they're very similar players with imo a slight edge to Nylander.

The difference really was how ****in' good Marner was on the PP.

I really do wish that Nylander was as good as Marner but I just can't see it.

 

[Morgs]

Marner reminds me of Kane. He's so good at scoring 5v5/PP that all his deficiencies people pretend don't exist.

 

[Jack Bauer]

Elite, Franchise Center, Which one is the first line C, Which one is the second line C....'

How about, they either won us the Cup, or they didn't.

Sundin was great, Elite, Franchise C... no cups.
Gilmour was great, Elite... no cups.

I don't care what you call these guys, whether Marner or Nylander is better, if Matthews is Elite, Franchise C, generational, or whatever... win the damned Cup.

So all discussion is ignored until June? That makes tons of sense.

Just keep scrolling if you don't want to discuss the players involved in the discussion.

Cups aren't guaranteed no matter how good your team is. Takes a special blend of talent and timing and health to be the team left standing at the end of the NHL playoffs.

Lets get these guys through 82 games and inevitable nicks, bruises, scars, and ice time squabbles combined with trade deadline distractions before we only worry about "Cup or bust".

I've been waiting to see a Leafs team this good since the early 90's. I'll enjoy every second of it...Cup or not.

 

[Morgs]

Nobody is intentionally ignoring anything.

You're using your own bias as a reason to drive that narrative.

Just because someone believes Marner to be the better player over the next 10 years doesn't mean they view Nylander as a lesser player or asset except for directly vs Marner.

I can view 2 amazing players as being amazing but still prefer 1 over the other without intentionally ignoring anything about the player I view as slightly inferior for various different reasons.

If I had to choose 1 player right now i'd take Marner.

You'd clearly take Nylander.

A majority, due to many different reasons, would take Marner and therefore when trading value for value would trade Nylander before Marner.

It's only as difficult to understand as you want to make it.

I'm not saying it's difficult to understand. I'm saying that people's bias for Marner clouds their judgement on which player is actually better.

Sure, if you think Marner's potential/value is higher that's perfectly fine, and a very valid opinion. If you're talking about who's better now, analytics suggest that it's Nylander.

 

[Jack Bauer]

View attachment 131797

Marner reminds me of Kane. He's so good at scoring 5v5/PP that all his deficiencies people pretend don't exist.

Nobody is pretending anything. They simply watch the game and prefer 1 to the other. It's very simple.

There's no graphs needed to give an opinion on Marner vs Nylander. We've all watched them more then enough over the last 2 seasons here and most of us watched them the year before as well. Everyone is entitled to their opinion about it.

You seem more upset that more don't agree with yours then you do that both are elite talents playing on your favorite team.

 

[Morgs]

Why is there only 58 games and 60 games tracked? Did they use Marners first 30 games in that where we all agree he wasn't very good or are they using his last 60 where he was playing at an elite level?

Corey Szanjer tracks them all by himself, and get's paid very little to do it.

That's actually 2 seasons.

 

[34]

View attachment 131797

Marner reminds me of Kane. He's so good at scoring 5v5/PP that all his deficiencies people pretend don't exist.

I also see some Kane is Marner’s game. What a brilliant pick that was!

Imagine the Leafs had of taken Dylan Strome. Huge bust. Lucky they lost the draft for #3 OA, or I feel Toronto would have taken Strome.

 

[Morgs]

Nobody is pretending anything. They simply watch the game and prefer 1 to the other. It's very simple.

There's no graphs needed to give an opinion on Marner vs Nylander. We've all watched them more then enough over the last 2 seasons here and most of us watched them the year before as well. Everyone is entitled to their opinion about it.

You seem more upset that more don't agree with yours then you do that both are elite talents playing on your favorite team.

No, I'm upset that some people see Nylander as an expendable asset for a top-pairing RD where as Marner is a franchise-level talent that's untouchable. When in reality they're both elite players that haven't touched their full potential yet, with one having a superior career so far.

I've watched virtually every game both have played, and as I've continually said everyone's entitled to their own opinion. It just seems that the "eye-test" people believe Marner is better, where as analytically Nylander is.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

watching games can only do so much. it's pretty arrogant to assume you have all the information you need only by watching them play. All the data that Morgs is providing is an account of what the players actually do while they're on the ice in quantified form so that it's easy to understand. The average person can't do that with their eyes alone

 

[1specter]

View attachment 131797

Marner reminds me of Kane. He's so good at scoring 5v5/PP that all his deficiencies people pretend don't exist.

What I really took away from this graphic is how f***ing fantastic Kadri's contract is. God bless.

 

[ACC1224]

I also see some Kane is Marner’s game. What a brilliant pick that was!

Imagine the Leafs had of taken Dylan Strome. Huge bust. Lucky they lost the draft for #3 OA, or I feel Toronto would have taken Strome.

Zero chance.
As long as Marner was available he was their selection. Had he gone they would have taken a defenseman.

There was some chatter that they liked Marner better than Eichel.

 

[Morgs]

What I really took away from this graphic is how ****ing fantastic Kadri's contract is. God bless.

Yeah, the guy should be virtually untouchable. I cannot wait to see what we can do with Matthews-Tavares-Kadri down the middle.

 

[Notsince67]

But it's true though.

View attachment 131795

5v5 you can see that Nylander is in the 94th percentile when it comes to shot contributions (Shot Assists + Shots per 60). Where as Marner's in the 81st percentile. He's also better when it comes to possession, plays harder comp, and for the most part has had much harder zone starts.

Marner is still a fantastic player, and I'm not trying to bring him down in any way. He's just the Canadian boy that tries hard and loved the Leafs since being little. It's like people want him to be better so they believe he's better, when in reality they're very similar players with imo a slight edge to Nylander.

The difference really was how ****in' good Marner was on the PP.

You said everything else. CF% at EV has Marner at 51.8% and Nylander at 50.2%
Looking at QoC, it is clear that Nylander plays with more difficult competition at 29.44 vs 29.05. It is largely mitigated by 1 thing...QoT. Nylander played with great team mates 31.28 while Marner played with 29.92 QoT team mates.
In short, at EV, Nylander was in far more favourable situations to generate points. "Better at" does not look at situational variables.

 

[Jack Bauer]

No, I'm upset that some people see Nylander as an expendable asset for a top-pairing RD where as Marner is a franchise-level talent that's untouchable. When in reality they're both elite players that haven't touched their full potential yet, with one having a superior career so far.

I've watched virtually every game both have played, and as I've continually said everyone's entitled to their own opinion. It just seems that the "eye-test" people believe Marner is better, where as analytically Nylander is.

Give us a top pairing RD somewhere else and everyone would view both as potential franchise-level and untouchable.

Basing only on analytics and ignoring the eye test would be laughed out of any front office in the NHL.

Taking both into account, with everything else...age, contract, home town, etc...it's easy to see why Nylander is views as the expendable one among he and Marner.

In 6 months time it might be different. And in a years time different again.

Not sure why this is so difficult for you to accept. We've likely all watched virtually every game they've played. It's 2018 and watching sports is about as easy as it's ever been and ever going to be. That doesn't make your analytical based opinion any more valuable then the eye tests.

An elite NHL center basically admitted to coming to Toronto...a situation that has never happened before...was because of the chance to play with Marner.

If that is ignored for your graphs then maybe you need to reset your feelings a bit and remove some of your own bias as it would appear to be an unhealthy one that you're taking way too seriously.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Imagine the Leafs had of taken Dylan Strome. Huge bust. Lucky they lost the draft for #3 OA, or I feel Toronto would have taken Strome.

Strome isn't a bust. He was over a PPG in the AHL as a rookie last year. He's no Marner, but Marner is kinda ridiculous.

 

[Darth Menace]

You

Why isn't there an option for both to be franchise Cs?

That's what they are.

Can vote twice I guess is why

 

[Notsince67]

I also see some Kane is Marner’s game. What a brilliant pick that was!

Imagine the Leafs had of taken Dylan Strome. Huge bust. Lucky they lost the draft for #3 OA, or I feel Toronto would have taken Strome.

I don't think so. I believe it would have been Hanifin.

 

[Fogelhund]

So all discussion is ignored until June? That makes tons of sense.

Just keep scrolling if you don't want to discuss the players involved in the discussion.

Cups aren't guaranteed no matter how good your team is. Takes a special blend of talent and timing and health to be the team left standing at the end of the NHL playoffs.

Lets get these guys through 82 games and inevitable nicks, bruises, scars, and ice time squabbles combined with trade deadline distractions before we only worry about "Cup or bust".

I've been waiting to see a Leafs team this good since the early 90's. I'll enjoy every second of it...Cup or not.

No, not all discussion should be ignored. But categorizing players as X, or Y, or which of our players is better... just pointless. Whether a RFA, UFA should be signed, traded, how to improve our team, future draft picks, prospect development, where prospects will play, lines, contracts... sure.

 

[Jack Bauer]

watching games can only do so much. it's pretty arrogant to assume you have all the information you need only by watching them play. All the data that Morgs is providing is an account of what the players actually do while they're on the ice in quantified form so that it's easy to understand. The average person can't do that with their eyes alone

In both situations you need to examine other data and not just the eye test or the analytics.

There's off ice habits. Contract situations. Where the player is from. Literally dozens of factors that factor into peoples opinions.

Suggesting that between the eye test and analytics that contract situation and home town are among the deciding factors in choosing between 2 equal players isn't near as far fetched as the analytics driven poster is trying to sell it as.

The eye test people also love Nylander. Just slightly, slightly less then they love the home town guy who scored more points, had a better playoff, and has 1 more season at under $1mil as a cap hit. There's nothing arrogant in arriving at that decision.

 

[1specter]

Strome isn't a bust. He was over a PPG in the AHL as a rookie last year. He's no Marner, but Marner is kinda ridiculous.

Yeah, calling Strome a bust is a little disingenuous, Marner is still way better though of course. Leafs are very lucky Chayka wasn't the GM at the time... I think if he was he would've taken Marner. Maloney was the GM at the time and I think they were hurting for a 1C especially after getting shafted in the McDavid/Eichel sweepstakes the prior year, and Strome had the stereotypical big 1C thing going on.

 

[ACC1224]

Strome isn't a bust. He was over a PPG in the AHL as a rookie last year. He's no Marner, but Marner is kinda ridiculous.

Unless his skating has improved dramatically(and it may have) he won't make much of an impact in the NHL, IMO.
He does have a tremendous amount of offensive skill though.

 

[Jack Bauer]

No, not all discussion should be ignored. But categorizing players as X, or Y, or which of our players is better... just pointless. Whether a RFA, UFA should be signed, traded, how to improve our team, future draft picks, prospect development, where prospects will play, lines, contracts... sure.

Why do you bother to read this far into this thread then?

You actually make me wonder why you'd create an account at all on a board related to the future of hockey if discussion of future draft picks or how to improve the team should be ignored.

 

[Notsince67]

Strome isn't a bust. He was over a PPG in the AHL as a rookie last year. He's no Marner, but Marner is kinda ridiculous.

Strome didn't need to grow. He was already big. a 3rd overall in that draft year still not cutting it into the NHL on an Arizona team is a bust.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

In both situations you need to examine other data and not just the eye test or the analytics.

There's off ice habits. Contract situations. Where the player is from. Literally dozens of factors that factor into peoples opinions.

Suggesting that between the eye test and analytics that contract situation and home town are among the deciding factors in choosing between 2 equal players isn't near as far fetched as the analytics driven poster is trying to sell it as.

The eye test people also love Nylander. Just slightly, slightly less then they love the home town guy who scored more points, had a better playoff, and has 1 more season at under $1mil as a cap hit. There's nothing arrogant in arriving at that decision.

people who use analytics do both. There's no such thing as a hockey fan who follows the sport by looking at the numbers only. People who rely on the eye-test are generally completely dismissive of any information that disagrees with what they've seen, like is happening now