Blue Jays Discussion: And the off-season begins (list of FA's in Post #1)

[Epictetus]

Almost certain Carlos Santana will have that 2017 club option at 12 million picked up.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Almost certain Carlos Santana will have that 2017 club option at 12 million picked up.

And he plays a mean guitar

 

[Canada4Gold]

lol? Roberto Alomar.

If we're going by fWAR it's not even close. Bautista is 1st with 35.6, Alomar 11th and 20.4. Yeah Alomar played less games, and there's more to a players historical impact on a team. But as a player on the field Bautista was far more productive, even on a per game basis, even if he didn't win the World Series

 

[Discoverer]

If we're going by fWAR it's not even close. Bautista is 1st with 35.6, Alomar 11th and 20.4. Yeah Alomar played less games, and there's more to a players historical impact on a team. But as a player on the field Bautista was far more productive, even on a per game basis, even if he didn't win the World Series

Yeah, Alomar was amazing, but his tenure was both shorter and less dominant.

I could see an argument for Fernandez or Delgado, though.

 

[The Nemesis]

If we're going by fWAR it's not even close. Bautista is 1st with 35.6, Alomar 11th and 20.4. Yeah Alomar played less games, and there's more to a players historical impact on a team. But as a player on the field Bautista was far more productive, even on a per game basis, even if he didn't win the World Series

You're going ty total fWAR, which penalizes shorter player tenures. Give me a few minutes and I'll try to see if I can work out some sort of super-baseline scaled fWAR (which isn't without its problems, but this is going to be like 5 minutes of work)

 

[Canada4Gold]

You're going ty total fWAR, which penalizes shorter player tenures. Give me a few minutes and I'll try to see if I can work out some sort of super-baseline scaled fWAR (which isn't without its problems, but this is going to be like 5 minutes of work)

Yes I did rank them based on that. But I did make note to glance quickly at the games played for Alomar and Jose and it was obvious Jose's per game fWAR would be higher as well.

Jose might not be 1st in a per game fWAR with say a minimum of 600 games or so, but he's still above Alomar by a fair bit

 

[Suntouchable13]

Buck Martinez is an analyst, why the hell is he doing PBP for the Jays? Just stupid.

 

[The Nemesis]

alright, this is really, really quick and dirty, but I plugged in every Blue Jay with at least 1000 PAs with the team, broke down their fWAR to a per-PA basis, and then basically scaled it back up to a rough per-season equivalent (averaging 4.8 PAs per game over a 162 game season).

The biggest problem is that it's going to penalize homegrown Blue Jays because it's going to include their substandard rookie seasons, and benefit players acquired at their peak since you're only getting their best as a Blue Jay. But here's what the result is:

|Player|Pro-rated fWAR/'season'
1|Josh Donaldson|7.90
2|Fred McGriff|5.80
3|Jose Bautista|5.31
4|Jesse Barfield|5.23
5|Devon White|4.80
6|Roberto Alomar|4.49
7|John Olerud|4.28
8|Tony Fernandez|4.07
9|Carlos Delgado|3.94
10|Kevin Pillar(!)|3.88

So, yeah. This is pretty much noisy garbage. But I laugh somewhat because it kind of shows how crappy the Jays' history is/how good Pillar's D is to have him hit #10 based on WAR accumulation rate.

Other notables on the list are: Vernon Wells with his 24.6 total WAR (6th overall) sits 27th on the accumulation list because of his large # of mediocre seasons. JP Arencibia sits 63rd/69. Bringing up the rear is Alfredo Griffin, the only negative WAR player on the list. Edwin is 15th, Buck Martinez is 36th, just ahead of Frank Catalanotto and a couple spots behind Gregg Zaun.

Not that any of this means anything. Clearly the theory needs refinement.

 

[The Nemesis]

Buck Martinez is an analyst, why the hell is he doing PBP for the Jays? Just stupid.

Likely because someone at Sportsnet saw the love everyone had for the old Dan/Buck tandem on TSN and wasn't thinking that the roles are actually quite different and being suitable for one in the 90s doesn't make you suitable for the other in the 2010s.

 

[shaner8989]

Cubs are done. That curse will continue. Cleveland is far superior in every faucet except starting pitching.

If clev is winning after the 4th inning the game is over.

 

[The Nemesis]

Cubs are done. That curse will continue. Cleveland is far superior in every faucet except starting pitching.

If clev is winning after the 4th inning the game is over.

5th inning of game 1 and the crown is being handed out already. That's.... outstanding. This is, shockingly, almost more reactionary than your usual knee-jerk Blue Jays tantrum-throwing. Which is quite the accomplishment.

Also it's "facet", not "faucet". We're not comparing plumbing.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Jeff Blair and Stephen Brunt speak to Toronto Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins about his strategy when it comes to the free agent market, dealing with a club that is right-bat heavy and old, assigning a dollar amount to intangibles, what surprised him about the Jays after his first season with the organisation, the starting rotation managing to stay healthy, how Aaron Sanchez’s innings will be managed for 2017, the potential of Joe Biagini becoming a starter, if any of his players require surgery, finding a catcher to reduce Russell Martin’s workload, and what he’s looking for in a new assistant hitting coach.

http://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_dema...r-and-Stephen-Brunt-jb-20161025-Interview.mp3

 

[The Nemesis]

Jeff Blair and Stephen Brunt speak to Toronto Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins about his strategy when it comes to the free agent market, dealing with a club that is right-bat heavy and old, assigning a dollar amount to intangibles, what surprised him about the Jays after his first season with the organisation, the starting rotation managing to stay healthy, how Aaron Sanchez’s innings will be managed for 2017, the potential of Joe Biagini becoming a starter, if any of his players require surgery, finding a catcher to reduce Russell Martin’s workload, and what he’s looking for in a new assistant hitting coach.

http://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_dema...r-and-Stephen-Brunt-jb-20161025-Interview.mp3

Was Eric Owens fired or did he leave to take another job?

 

[King Mapes]

5th inning of game 1 and the crown is being handed out already. That's.... outstanding. This is, shockingly, almost more reactionary than your usual knee-jerk Blue Jays tantrum-throwing. Which is quite the accomplishment.

Also it's "facet", not "faucet". We're not comparing plumbing.

 

[habamillions]

Yeah, Alomar was amazing, but his tenure was both shorter and less dominant.

I could see an argument for Fernandez or Delgado, though.

Delgado should have won an mvp. got screwed hardcore. Delgado had his prime yeara wasted by terrible teams. Imagine him on last year and this years team

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Delgado should have won an mvp. got screwed hardcore. Delgado had his prime yeara wasted by terrible teams. Imagine him on last year and this years team

As fun as it is to imagine 99/00 Delgado in 2016, I have a hard time believing he'd make it through a full season given where drug testing is now (much like many of the stars from the late 90's/early 2000's). Best to just leave him there among like kind objects.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Was Eric Owens fired or did he leave to take another job?

According to the Toronto Star, Eric Owens was probably fired by the Toronto Blue Jays because his skill set was deemed redundant. The team will add another coach who will most likely focused on offence, but not exclusively hitting.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/blue...ut-qualifying-offer-for-michael-saunders.html

OWENS OUT: Nearly all of the Jays’ coaching staff will be returning next season along with manager John Gibbons, Atkins said. The only staff member not coming back is assistant hitting coach Eric Owens, whose skill set was deemed redundant, Atkins said, adding that the team will add another coach, most likely focused on offence, but not exclusively hitting.

 

[Swervin81]

No, we probably should forget that. He hit .320 in a monstrously outlying career year fueled by a freakishly high BABIP the likes of which you never see out of freak years that are basically unrepeatable, especially out of players that don't have either a) big power or b) blazing speed.

.411 BABIP. Good for the 7th luckiest season in MLB history.

 

[Le Cobra]

After watching last nights game 1 of the World Series, goes to show just how good our Jays were this year...the games we lost looked way more competitive and could have gone either way...once again we could have dismantled the NL champs...

 

[Discoverer]

As fun as it is to imagine 99/00 Delgado in 2016, I have a hard time believing he'd make it through a full season given where drug testing is now (much like many of the stars from the late 90's/early 2000's). Best to just leave him there among like kind objects.

Oh right, I forgot we're supposed to assume every slugger from the '90s was using steroids regardless of the existence of anything remotely resembling evidence.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Oh right, I forgot we're supposed to assume every slugger from the '90s was using steroids regardless of the existence of anything remotely resembling evidence.

In 2000, thirty-two eligible batters had wOBA's of 400 or above, while the same amount had ISO's of 250 or above.

This year, six eligible batters had wOBA's of 400 or above, while sixteen had ISO's of 250 or above. Last year, five 400+ wOBA and twelve 250+ ISO.

I'm not accusing Delgado specifically, but I am saying that its a fool's errand to grab a hitter from that era and drop them into this one expecting it to be apples to apples...for a myriad of reasons. I will say it is a bit naïve to believe the 3rd best hitter from 2000 was absolutely natural and clean given that 3 of the top 5 hitters from that season tested positive (or were wrapped up in scandal at some point), and the 4th not named Delgado played at Coors field.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I submit for your consideration your platoon (LHH) first baseman for the 2017 Blue Jays.

https://mykbostats.com/players/824-Eric-Thames-NC-Dinos

 

[phillipmike]

I know he had a terrible second half but any chance we qualify saunders? My thinking is if he accepts you have your DH at 17mill(expensive but we're willing to give that to JB to DH) who can also fill in in the OF. If he rejects and gets a multi year deal from someone we get the pick.

It would be a strong no from me. Heyman projected he would get 22M over 2 years. If that is the case (think its a good prediction for likely a DH or an awful fielding OF with a suspect bat) then why would Saunders decline? 17M in 1 year and all he has to do is make 5M in his 2nd year to make up that 22M projection. And if Smoak can get 4M as a bench player then i am sure Saunders can easily get 5M. Saunders would be stupid to reject 17M for 1 year unless he knows he has a better offer coming and i doubt that would be the case because the OF is pretty strong this off-season.

I dont like spending money on the bullpen but i would rather spend 15-17M on Chapman than 17M on Saunders. Can get much better and more well rounded OFs than Saunders for a lot less than 17M.

I submit for your consideration your platoon (LHH) first baseman for the 2017 Blue Jays.

https://mykbostats.com/players/824-Eric-Thames-NC-Dinos

I wouldnt be against it depending on the price. His K/BB ratio definitely improved. Would seem to have more upside than Smoak.

Yes i insulted Smoak on two unrelated questions, it wasnt my intention.

 

[Discoverer]

In 2000, thirty-two eligible batters had wOBA's of 400 or above, while the same amount had ISO's of 250 or above.

This year, six eligible batters had wOBA's of 400 or above, while sixteen had ISO's of 250 or above. Last year, five 400+ wOBA and twelve 250+ ISO.

I'm not accusing Delgado specifically, but I am saying that its a fool's errand to grab a hitter from that era and drop them into this one expecting it to be apples to apples...for a myriad of reasons. I will say it is a bit naïve to believe the 3rd best hitter from 2000 was absolutely natural and clean given that 3 of the top 5 hitters from that season tested positive (or were wrapped up in scandal at some point), and the 4th not named Delgado played at Coors field.

Don't you kind of have to extend that assumption to any top hitters from that era, then? That's what I think is unfair. I'm not naive enough to say there's no chance that any given player from that era was using something (including Delgado), but I think you need a bit more evidence than "It was the '90s and lots of the other best hitters were using" before you make the assumption that he wouldn't pass a test today.

 

[Discoverer]

I submit for your consideration your platoon (LHH) first baseman for the 2017 Blue Jays.

https://mykbostats.com/players/824-Eric-Thames-NC-Dinos

I'm on board with that. A huge wild card, but there's a ton of potential. Unless someone offers him a ton of money on a long-term deal (which would be stupid, obviously), I think he'll get a relatively affordable one year contract. I would love the Jays to be the team to take that chance.