Blue Jays Discussion: And the off-season begins (list of FA's in Post #1)

[King Mapes]

When are the Jay's going to step up financially like the other big boys in the league....TEX ANA LAD NYY BOS NYM CHC PHI???

While it would be exciting, keep in mind of the 10 biggest spending teams only one won a playoff series. We need to be smart about it (like the Happ signing).

We spent more than the Mets btw. Phillies payroll is way lower, why did you list them?

 

[Discoverer]

When are the Jay's going to step up financially like the other big boys in the league....TEX ANA LAD NYY BOS NYM CHC PHI???

I agree with the sentiment, but I always like how the cutoff for "big spenders" tends to sit right above wherever the Jays are.

Also... yeah... the Mets?

 

[King Mapes]

It's worth noting Cleveland spent under 100 mill and are still playing.

 

[Discoverer]

Donaldson said he would be interested in getting Canadian citizenship in order to play at 2020 Summer Olympics so I'm sure if the Jays pay him what he wants/deserves he'll resign. I think he really enjoys playing here, and we're long past the era where high profile American athletes didn't want to live in Canada long term.

Also, are the Jay's going to fill their holes through free agency or possibly through trade too? Atlanta sucks and isn't going anywhere anytime soon so maybe they could be persuaded to part with Freddie Freeman for a Donaldson-to-Toronto-like deal...

There's no combination of players that would make sense for both teams in that trade.

 

[Discoverer]

Why would it not happen? If there were a player that the Jays would spend 200m on, it would be Donaldson. Red Sox also have Moncada and Devers in the pipelines for 3B, doubt they'll look to fill that hole in free agency.

The Jays also have two years to try to work something out before Boston or anyone else can even talk to him. Sure, he could wait for frre agency, but there's a ton of value tp Donaldson in mitigating risk by signing early and at peak value.

 

[Quiksilver*]

It's worth noting Cleveland spent under 100 mill and are still playing.

And who (for the most part) built that Cleveland team?

 

[hockeywiz542]

my guess is we’ll be reminded in these next few weeks that in president and ceo mark shapiro’s first year as gm of the cleveland indians he traded roberto alomar after a loss in the american league division series and then, with his team still in contention, traded bartolo colon for cliff lee, brandon phillips and grady sizemore -- his best deal ever, to be sure, but one that raised a white flag in the 2002 season.

Similarities will be stressed and likely, considering the pathological hatred much of the media has for blue jays ownership, overstated. Those who dig will notice that shapiro later traded cornerstone players within two years of free agency, lee and victor martinez, check donaldson’s free-agent eta and break into a cold sweat.

But something to keep in mind about those indians and these blue jays: That 2001 indians team finished the season with the fourth-highest payroll in baseball, unsustainable in all but three markets in the game, and by the end of 2002 were down to 12th, almost 25 per cent shed. The 2016 blue jays, meanwhile, led the al in attendance with the 11th- or 12th-highest payroll in the game depending on your math.

Look, there is always a point in sports management where philosophy intersects with fiscal reality. I just don’t think it’s the same now for shapiro as it was then.

 

[one77]

Good article, and makes very accurate points.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Seems like there's a Atkins presser or media conference going on with the tweets on my feed

Atkins confirms Jose and EE both will get QO's but trying to talk contract with them before free agency, still thinking about giving Saunders one. Confirms Osuna is in the pen for good now. Rotation for next year basically set with 5 guys we have now. Grilli option likely to be picked up. Looking at Pen in free agency obviously. Willing to go 3+ years for right guy. Need OF/1B as well as was obvious. Looking at Biagini as starter maybe in spring training if he's open to it.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Biagini as a starter - interesting

 

[Loosie]

Injuries to Martin (Knee), Pillar (thumb) and Donaldson (hip) were mentioned it seems. Severity not mentioned though and no word on any surgeries. The only real surprise is Pillar's.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Nothing wrong with seeing how Biagini fares as a starter but I think he's far more useful to this team as a reliever than a depth starter.

He just put up 1.2 fWAR and 1.08 WPA as a rookie reliever on the team. He wasn't that good of a starter in the minors, and it's doubtful he could be anymore than a #4 or 5 in the majors if that. It's unlikely he'd be worth more wins moving forward in the rotation than he put up last year or that he'd put up in the pen moving forward.

And this team needs pen guys and doesn't need starters. If we were flush with relief options I'd be fine with him in Buffalo stretched out as a 6th guy, but he needs to be in our pen.

He's a guy like Hendriks. Who we moved to the pen(and then traded for Chavez ) and was more useful there.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Injuries to Martin (Knee), Pillar (thumb) and Donaldson (hip) were mentioned it seems. Severity not mentioned though and no word on any surgeries. The only real surprise is Pillar's.

yeah I meant to mention that and forgot while typing. Didn't rule out surgery for any of the 3

 

[Discoverer]

Nothing wrong with seeing how Biagini fares as a starter but I think he's far more useful to this team as a reliever than a depth starter.

He just put up 1.2 fWAR and 1.08 WPA as a rookie reliever on the team. He wasn't that good of a starter in the minors, and it's doubtful he could be anymore than a #4 or 5 in the majors if that. It's unlikely he'd be worth more wins moving forward in the rotation than he put up last year or that he'd put up in the pen moving forward.

And this team needs pen guys and doesn't need starters. If we were flush with relief options I'd be fine with him in Buffalo stretched out as a 6th guy, but he needs to be in our pen.

He's a guy like Hendriks. Who we moved to the pen(and then traded for Chavez ) and was more useful there.

The idea would be to have him as a depth starter in 2017 only and then move him to the rotation as a regular in 2018, which makes perfect sense from a value standpoint, but, to me, is predicated on them replacing his bullpen innings in 2017.

You have to have a pretty low opinion of Biagini to think that he can't be worth more than 1.2 fWAR as a starter. That's somewhere around a 4.75 FIP over a full season. I understand that his numbers as a minor league starter weren't all that impressive, but they didn't suggest he would be a dominant reliever, either. There's something about this management's ability to find pitchers, and if they think he can start, then they should give him a chance.

 

[zeke]

Biagini was an ok SP in AA at 25.

The chances he becomes a good MLB SP at 27 are about as good as Cecil going back to starting.

 

[BertCorbeau]

They want to try Biagini as a starter but not try Osuna?

K

 

[theaub]

Biagini was an ok SP in AA at 25.

The chances he becomes a good MLB SP at 27 are about as good as Cecil going back to starting.

Concur with this - seems really weird to stretch him out

 

[LaCarriere]

The Jays also have two years to try to work something out before Boston or anyone else can even talk to him. Sure, he could wait for frre agency, but there's a ton of value tp Donaldson in mitigating risk by signing early and at peak value.

If his agent is telling him anything other than "wait for free agency" he probably needs a new agent.

It's not like he's in JB / EE territory where regression due to age is right around the corner, and he as a player needs to make a decision of signing now for less, or playing for a big year and cashing in like EE chose to do. Donaldson is cashing in no matter what, and the offers are going to be pretty ridiculous.

 

[metafour]

They want to try Biagini as a starter but not try Osuna?

K

Why is that ridiculous? Biagini threw 128 and 130 innings the past two seasons prior to this year. Osuna's 74 innings this year were a career high, and he's never once pitched on anything even remotely close to an MLB starter's workload. He's also already blown his arm out, had a shoulder scare late this season, and had reports of poor mechanics even before we rushed him up into the bullpen. It would take years to stretch him out; by then he'd already be out of team options. Osuna starting was always a pipe-dream, because real baseball isn't like a video game.

 

[metafour]

Biagini was an ok SP in AA at 25.

The chances he becomes a good MLB SP at 27 are about as good as Cecil going back to starting.

Biagini is clearly a pitcher that has gotten better with age, so its really not that ridiculous a thought that he could be a good back-end starter, regardless of what his minor league numbers suggest.

 

[Discoverer]

If his agent is telling him anything other than "wait for free agency" he probably needs a new agent.

It's not like he's in JB / EE territory where regression due to age is right around the corner, and he as a player needs to make a decision of signing now for less, or playing for a big year and cashing in like EE chose to do. Donaldson is cashing in no matter what, and the offers are going to be pretty ridiculous.

Why isn't it right around the corner for him? Obviously he's a lot better as a player, but Edwin is hitting free agency heading into his age-34 season. Donaldson will be 33. It's not that much different.

And "no matter what" ignores the possibility that he does regress at some point in the next two years, or that he suffers a major injury of some kind.

If he's thinking he could hit free agency and get, say, $200 million, then there's a ton of value in negating some of that risk by signing something like a $180 million extension right now.

 

[WTFMAN99]

They want to try Biagini as a starter but not try Osuna?

K

Osuna said he wants to be a closer....so he knows what he wants to do. Is Biagini wanting to be a starter?

 

[hockeywiz542]

Toronto Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins held his year-end news conference on Monday and touched on Jose Bautista's and Edwin Encarnacion's future in Toronto, John Gibbons' contract status, balancing out the lineup over the offseason, his first year as GM of the Blue Jays and much more.

http://www.tsn.ca/video/atkins-reflects-on-first-year-as-jays-gm-looks-ahead-to-offseason~979117

 

[Canada4Gold]

The idea would be to have him as a depth starter in 2017 only and then move him to the rotation as a regular in 2018, which makes perfect sense from a value standpoint, but, to me, is predicated on them replacing his bullpen innings in 2017.

You have to have a pretty low opinion of Biagini to think that he can't be worth more than 1.2 fWAR as a starter. That's somewhere around a 4.75 FIP over a full season. I understand that his numbers as a minor league starter weren't all that impressive, but they didn't suggest he would be a dominant reliever, either. There's something about this management's ability to find pitchers, and if they think he can start, then they should give him a chance.

He might be worth about that as a starter, but he was worth that as a rookie MLB reliever. I think he can continue to improve upon that as a reliever. We need relievers now, I don't see the logic behind keeping him as a depth option for 2017 with the hopes he can get slightly more than 1.2 fWAR in 2018 when we only have 3 starters lined up as of now.

He was a really solid reliever, you need those on a team, I don't see the reason to forgo that next year in hopes that he can be a meh starter.

They want to try Biagini as a starter but not try Osuna?

K

Biagini's career high IP is much higher. In theory he could basically be a fulltime starter right away. It was take at least 3 years to stretch Osuna out to a full workload after which we have only 1 year of control left.

The time to revert Osuna to a starter was this year. That time is gone. I don't like trying Biagini as a starter but Osuna in the pen is the right call IMO.

 

[Sokil]

Toronto Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins held his year-end news conference on Monday and touched on Jose Bautista's and Edwin Encarnacion's future in Toronto, John Gibbons' contract status, balancing out the lineup over the offseason, his first year as GM of the Blue Jays and much more.

http://www.tsn.ca/video/atkins-reflects-on-first-year-as-jays-gm-looks-ahead-to-offseason~979117

interesting that they chose to give Bautista the QO. I mean, if he can get back to normal, 17m is an alright number. If he repeats last year, then it's no bueno and a big waste of cash.