Blue Jays Discussion: And the off-season begins (list of FA's in Post #1)

[zeke]

BA Blue Jays Top-10:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-toronto-blue-jays-top-10-prospects/#Vre5RTrlWdlMWHvl.97

1. V.Guerrero
2. A.Alford
3. S.Reid-Foley
4. C.Greene
5. R.Urena
6. R.Tellez
7. T.Zeuch
8. B.Bichette
9. J.Harris
10. J.Maese

my 2 cents:

Too High: Greene, Harris
Too Low: Tellez, Maese


Only Vlad's report available without a subscription:

"Scouting Report: Guerrero does just about everything evaluators want to see in a teenage hitter. He has tremendous hand-eye coordination and bat-to-ball skills, to the point he seems to have been born to hit. His special hands allow him to manipulate the barrel and square up pitches of all types. He has excellent strike-zone judgment for a 17-year-old, walking nearly as often as he struck out and showing an ability to lay off breaking balls that will be further tested at higher levels. He has tremendous raw power and showed the ability to drive the ball to all fields at an advanced rate for his age. Guerrero covers the plate well and should be an above-average hitter with 30-plus homer potential down the line. Some club officials have compared his overall offensive profile to that of Edwin Encarnacion, though with more speed, as he’s actually an average runner. Like Encarnacion, Guerrero has a chance to be a third baseman early in his career. Defense was rarely a focus of his as an amateur, and moving to third base from outfield has prompted Guerrero to work harder on all aspects of that side of the ball. He has improved his short-area quickness and arm strength the most. If he keeps working on his defense, he should have average range. Once owner of a below-average arm, he now flirts with a plus tool. His footwork has improved as well, and he made the routine play with some reliability in his debut. Guerrero has gotten his stocky body in better shape since signing, but it will always be a concern and is his biggest weakness as a prospect."

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Don't you kind of have to extend that assumption to any top hitters from that era, then? That's what I think is unfair. I'm not naive enough to say there's no chance that any given player from that era was using something (including Delgado), but I think you need a bit more evidence than "It was the '90s and lots of the other best hitters were using" before you make the assumption that he wouldn't pass a test today.

Absolutely.

Which is why its best to leave them all there, and consider that era in a vacuum. Which was all I said in the first place.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I'm on board with that. A huge wild card, but there's a ton of potential. Unless someone offers him a ton of money on a long-term deal (which would be stupid, obviously), I think he'll get a relatively affordable one year contract. I would love the Jays to be the team to take that chance.

People are going to be so upset when they sign him .

My prediction: EE and JB walk. Saunders walks, Cecil walks, Dickey\Thole as well. Grilli\Benoit retire.

Some combination of Thames (1B\DH), Sean Rodriguez (U), Cameron Maybin (OF), Jay Bruce (OF\DH), Drew Butera (C), Seth Smith (OF), zombie Greg Holland, and zombie Daniel Hudson are brought in to replace them (along with internal options).

People lose their ever-loving minds. Team does not get worse in 2017.

 

[Discoverer]

People are going to be so upset when they sign him .

My prediction: EE and JB walk. Saunders walks, Cecil walks, Dickey\Thole as well. Grilli\Benoit retire.

Some combination of Thames (1B\DH), Sean Rodriguez (U), Cameron Maybin (OF), Jay Bruce (OF\DH), Drew Butera (C), Seth Smith (OF), zombie Greg Holland, and zombie Daniel Hudson are brought in to replace them (along with internal options).

People lose their ever-loving minds. Team does not get worse in 2017.

The only thing there that would surprise me would be Grilli retiring.

I do think, though, that even if all of that happened, there would still be another big move or two. That team would come with a payroll something like $20 million less than this year. I can't see them doing that.

 

[Fantomas]

lol? Roberto Alomar.

Donaldson.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

The only thing there that would surprise me would be Grilli retiring.

I do think, though, that even if all of that happened, there would still be another big move or two. That team would come with a payroll something like $20 million less than this year. I can't see them doing that.

I could see them lowering payroll. My preference would be to re-sign EE (4 years, $22MM aav), sign Thames (mostly for the funny), sign Bruce and Rodriguez, and do the fun Zombie reliever thing. They'll "get younger (as well as more athletic)" by giving Pompey every opportunity to win the everyday LF job.

One thing that annoys me slightly about the AA tenure is the lack of young position player depth that rightfully should have been knocking on the door now, which would make something like a Bruce signing unnecessary.

You would've liked to have had a couple of Kellen Sweeney, Chris Hawkins, Marcus (xbox 360) Knecht, Dickie Thon, Jacob Anderson, or Dwight Smith to be knocking on the door in Triple-A. That said, I would not trade his drafting\development of young pitching for anything, and give credit where it is rightfully due.

 

[one77]

BA Blue Jays Top-10:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-toronto-blue-jays-top-10-prospects/#Vre5RTrlWdlMWHvl.97

1. V.Guerrero
2. A.Alford
3. S.Reid-Foley
4. C.Greene
5. R.Urena
6. R.Tellez
7. T.Zeuch
8. B.Bichette
9. J.Harris
10. J.Maese

my 2 cents:

Too High: Greene, Harris
Too Low: Tellez, Maese


Only Vlad's report available without a subscription:

"Scouting Report: Guerrero does just about everything evaluators want to see in a teenage hitter. He has tremendous hand-eye coordination and bat-to-ball skills, to the point he seems to have been born to hit. His special hands allow him to manipulate the barrel and square up pitches of all types. He has excellent strike-zone judgment for a 17-year-old, walking nearly as often as he struck out and showing an ability to lay off breaking balls that will be further tested at higher levels. He has tremendous raw power and showed the ability to drive the ball to all fields at an advanced rate for his age. Guerrero covers the plate well and should be an above-average hitter with 30-plus homer potential down the line. Some club officials have compared his overall offensive profile to that of Edwin Encarnacion, though with more speed, as he’s actually an average runner. Like Encarnacion, Guerrero has a chance to be a third baseman early in his career. Defense was rarely a focus of his as an amateur, and moving to third base from outfield has prompted Guerrero to work harder on all aspects of that side of the ball. He has improved his short-area quickness and arm strength the most. If he keeps working on his defense, he should have average range. Once owner of a below-average arm, he now flirts with a plus tool. His footwork has improved as well, and he made the routine play with some reliability in his debut. Guerrero has gotten his stocky body in better shape since signing, but it will always be a concern and is his biggest weakness as a prospect."

IMO:

Urena
Alford
SRF
Vlad Jr.
Tellez
Greene
Zeuch
Harris
Maese


I see Urena, Alford, SRF and potentially Vlad Jr. having elite potential. Tellez could be great too.

 

[SpezDispenser]

I think what pretty much everyone means when they say "change the culture" is get rid of Jose Bautista. Which is stupid, obviously, because his attitude shouldn't be anywhere on the list of problems for this team.

If you want him to leave because of his age, performance, and contract concerns, then sure, that's fair. But the "culture" thing is weird, considering everything the guy has meant to the organization.

I think having EE on the team - if we can sign him - makes signing Bautista as well a very tough call. Bautista's OBP is nice, but if we can replace him with someone who can hit for a high average, especially in spots where there are RISP, we'll come out ahead. And I don't think it's just one pure hitter/OBP guy we need, I think we'd look good to get 2. One to replace the 'home run or nothing' style that we've seen from Bautista and one to replace Saunders who crashed and burned down the stretch.

People are too focused on HRs sometimes. A single or double can really stress a pitcher out, while a homerun is one and done. If (and that's a big if) we can get a guy like Votto (if Cincy will eat some $$) and then IF again, we can get a guy who can hit for average and has speed, we could potentially shift Travis to 2nd spot, have Donaldson at 3rd, EE clean-up and Votto in the 5 spot (followed by Tulo, Pillar and Martin).

Suddenly instead of just worrying about Donaldson, EE and Bautista, you've balanced things out a lot and I think that gets you back to the previous year's offensive team where pitchers soiled themselves on a nightly basis.

This is from a fan's perspective, I don't profess to know as much as most posters on here. And it should also be noted that I've always really like Bautista, but think it's time to move on.

 

[Discoverer]

BA Blue Jays Top-10:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-toronto-blue-jays-top-10-prospects/#Vre5RTrlWdlMWHvl.97

1. V.Guerrero
2. A.Alford
3. S.Reid-Foley
4. C.Greene
5. R.Urena
6. R.Tellez
7. T.Zeuch
8. B.Bichette
9. J.Harris
10. J.Maese

Guerrero being #1 kind of surprises me because scouts tend not to put lower-level guys so high. Other than that, I don't understand the Conner Greene hype. I'm not a scout, obviously, but the numbers the last couple years aren't the least bit impressive. I would shuffle a couple guys up and down here and there based on preference, but I would put Greene around the back-end of the Top 10.

I still think Alford is going to be a star. After getting healthy and finishing up strong with Dunedin, he's destroying the Arizona Fall League so far, and the power just keeps developing.

 

[Discoverer]

I think having EE on the team - if we can sign him - makes signing Bautista as well a very tough call. Bautista's OBP is nice, but if we can replace him with someone who can hit for a high average, especially in spots where there are RISP, we'll come out ahead. And I don't think it's just one pure hitter/OBP guy we need, I think we'd look good to get 2. One to replace the 'home run or nothing' style that we've seen from Bautista and one to replace Saunders who crashed and burned down the stretch.

People are too focused on HRs sometimes. A single or double can really stress a pitcher out, while a homerun is one and done. If (and that's a big if) we can get a guy like Votto (if Cincy will eat some $$) and then IF again, we can get a guy who can hit for average and has speed, we could potentially shift Travis to 2nd spot, have Donaldson at 3rd, EE clean-up and Votto in the 5 spot (followed by Tulo, Pillar and Martin).

Suddenly instead of just worrying about Donaldson, EE and Bautista, you've balanced things out a lot and I think that gets you back to the previous year's offensive team where pitchers soiled themselves on a nightly basis.

This is from a fan's perspective, I don't profess to know as much as most posters on here. And it should also be noted that I've always really like Bautista, but think it's time to move on.

The two bolded points are kind of contradictory. "All-or-nothing" hitters don't generally put up a .366 OBP in a down year. Bautista is a great hitter, and as much as it looks like he's always swinging for the fences, the results should (getting on base a ton) should be more important than the approach. I understand wanting to move on, though.

And if they were to somehow retain Edwin and add Votto then Votto, Donaldson and Edwin would definitely be in the 2-3-4 spots in the lineup.

In my fantasy world, the Jays re-sign Edwin, make a reasonable trade for Votto, and sign Fowler. Only one of those things is reasonable, unfortunately.

 

[zeke]

Alford has enough question marks that I'm not as high on him now as I was last year - but I still like him. Greene was bad enough this year that he's wiped out almost all of the progress he made last year imo. Now he's just another big arm with upside but lots of work to get there, not a guy dominating his competition.

Me I like the guys dominating their competition while young for their level, so my top 5 is in no order Alford/Tellez/Guerrero/SRF/Urena, with Maese a close 6th. Greene for me falls on the same level now as promising but not yet great arms like Zeuch, Rios, Harris, Perdomo, etc. who I'd say would be fighting for those 6-15 spots with position prospects like Bichette, Ramirez, McGuire, Pentecost.

 

[SpezDispenser]

The two bolded points are kind of contradictory. "All-or-nothing" hitters don't generally put up a .366 OBP in a down year. Bautista is a great hitter, and as much as it looks like he's always swinging for the fences, the results should (getting on base a ton) should be more important than the approach. I understand wanting to move on, though.

And if they were to somehow retain Edwin and add Votto then Votto, Donaldson and Edwin would definitely be in the 2-3-4 spots in the lineup.

In my fantasy world, the Jays re-sign Edwin, make a reasonable trade for Votto, and sign Fowler. Only one of those things is reasonable, unfortunately.

I knew it when I was writing that. I guess I can't put my finger on it, but I find when runner are in scoring position, Bautista moves towards the 'all or nothing' approach to try to knock them in (and himself), while when there's not he's a much more patient hitter. I could be wrong, I don't have the AS to back that up, but sometimes a single is better than going for the long shot HR.

Again, it sounds like you know more about it than me, I'm just John Q Fan, but I'd love to get some speed at the top of the lineup and be able to bat the fantasyland Votto in the 4/5 spot (which I guess is what you said if you go Donaldson, EE, Votto).

Here's my dream:

1.High average/speedy hitter
2.Travis
3.Donaldson
4.EE
5.Votto
6.Tulo
7.Pillar
8.Martin
9.RF??

With the pitching staff we have, that's a really formidable lineup. Now...back to reality I guess...

 

[Discoverer]

Alford has enough question marks that I'm not as high on him now as I was last year - but I still like him. Greene was bad enough this year that he's wiped out almost all of the progress he made last year imo. Now he's just another big arm with upside but lots of work to get there, not a guy dominating his competition.

Me I like the guys dominating their competition while young for their level, so my top 5 is in no order Alford/Tellez/Guerrero/SRF/Urena, with Maese a close 6th. Greene for me falls on the same level now as promising but not yet great arms like Zeuch, Rios, Harris, Perdomo, etc. who I'd say would be fighting for those 6-15 spots with position prospects like Bichette, Ramirez, McGuire, Pentecost.

I'm willing to gloss over the Alford question marks because of his early-season injury troubles (while understanding that, obviously, injuries themselves are a concern). I'm sure it's no entirely unbiased, but that's kind of how I see it.

I completely agree with your Top 5 and the dominant/young evaluation strategy, but I would differ in that I think there's a pretty big gap between them and the next group.

 

[zeke]

yeah I think there's a pretty big gap but I'd move up Maese above the break point and call it a top 6.

 

[Discoverer]

Again, it sounds like you know more about it than me, I'm just John Q Fan, but I'd love to get some speed at the top of the lineup and be able to bat the fantasyland Votto in the 4/5 spot (which I guess is what you said if you go Donaldson, EE, Votto).

Here's my dream:

1.High average/speedy hitter
2.Travis
3.Donaldson
4.EE
5.Votto
6.Tulo
7.Pillar
8.Martin
9.RF??

Mine would be:

1. Fowler
2. Votto
3. Donaldson
4. Edwin
5. Tulo
6. Travis
7. Martin
8. Upton/Carrera/Pompey/whoever
9. Pillar

 

[SpezDispenser]

Mine would be:

1. Fowler
2. Votto
3. Donaldson
4. Edwin
5. Tulo
6. Travis
7. Martin
8. Upton/Carrera/Pompey/whoever
9. Pillar

Is Fowler speedy though? He's a solid hitter, but we have almost no speed in that lineup.

 

[Discoverer]

yeah I think there's a pretty big gap but I'd move up Maese above the break point and call it a top 6.

I can get behind that. His season was pretty remarkable for a 19 year old.

Bichette and Zeuch are the two I could see breaking into that group in a hurry. It's too bad Bichette will still be in short-season ball next year.

 

[Discoverer]

Is Fowler speedy though? He's a solid hitter, but we have almost no speed in that lineup.

He's not going to steal a ton of bases, but he's fast and a really good baserunner. He's also a switch-hitter.

He's basically everything people have saying they want the Jays to have more of.

 

[SpezDispenser]

He's not going to steal a ton of bases, but he's fast and a really good baserunner. He's also a switch-hitter.

He's basically everything people have saying they want the Jays to have more of.

Yeah, that sounds perfect.

 

[zeke]

Fowler's been a solid 3ish win pace player most of his career, but after his big year this year I fear he'll get paid to be much more than that.

 

[Doug Gilmour]

People are going to be so upset when they sign him .

My prediction: EE and JB walk. Saunders walks, Cecil walks, Dickey\Thole as well. Grilli\Benoit retire.

Some combination of Thames (1B\DH), Sean Rodriguez (U), Cameron Maybin (OF), Jay Bruce (OF\DH), Drew Butera (C), Seth Smith (OF), zombie Greg Holland, and zombie Daniel Hudson are brought in to replace them (along with internal options).

People lose their ever-loving minds. Team does not get worse in 2017.

This scenario would be a dream for me minus Cecil walking.

 

[Kurtz]

BA Blue Jays Top-10:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-toronto-blue-jays-top-10-prospects/#Vre5RTrlWdlMWHvl.97

1. V.Guerrero
2. A.Alford
3. S.Reid-Foley
4. C.Greene
5. R.Urena
6. R.Tellez
7. T.Zeuch
8. B.Bichette
9. J.Harris
10. J.Maese

my 2 cents:

Too High: Greene, Harris
Too Low: Tellez, Maese

What's with Urena's drop?

 

[Leaftors]

Fowler's been a solid 3ish win pace player most of his career, but after his big year this year I fear he'll get paid to be much more than that.

Ya, me too. how much do you project he'll go for?

 

[Discoverer]

I could see them lowering payroll. My preference would be to re-sign EE (4 years, $22MM aav), sign Thames (mostly for the funny), sign Bruce and Rodriguez, and do the fun Zombie reliever thing. They'll "get younger (as well as more athletic)" by giving Pompey every opportunity to win the everyday LF job.

One thing that annoys me slightly about the AA tenure is the lack of young position player depth that rightfully should have been knocking on the door now, which would make something like a Bruce signing unnecessary.

You would've liked to have had a couple of Kellen Sweeney, Chris Hawkins, Marcus (xbox 360) Knecht, Dickie Thon, Jacob Anderson, or Dwight Smith to be knocking on the door in Triple-A. That said, I would not trade his drafting\development of young pitching for anything, and give credit where it is rightfully due.

Hawkins, Knecht, Sweeney and Anderson were really frustrating to follow because you would read about their potential and then they just never did anything. At least Smith has done enough to slowly work his way through the system. It's nice that some of them (Alford, Pompey, Tellez, Urena, etc.) are starting to get results now, but there was definitely a big gap for a few years that hopefully they'll be able to start filling.

And I hope the Bruce prediction includes a really small salary. At best, he's basically Michael Saunders: slightly above average bat, terrible OF defense.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Hawkins, Knecht, Sweeney and Anderson were really frustrating to follow because you would read about their potential and then they just never did anything. At least Smith has done enough to slowly work his way through the system. It's nice that some of them (Alford, Pompey, Tellez, Urena, etc.) are starting to get results now, but there was definitely a big gap for a few years that hopefully they'll be able to start filling.

And I hope the Bruce prediction includes a really small salary. At best, he's basically Michael Saunders: slightly above average bat, terrible OF defense.

I dislike Jay Bruce....so much. Its actually hard to articulate how much I dislike him as a player. Unfortunately, looking at the holes\needs\ways to improve or change the lineup, he fits in well (LHH, OF, HR replacement). It needs to be cheap and it needs to be short term. Essentially, you hope he can have a Trumbo-like season (putrid defense, dingerz spike with home park change, scratches a 120 wRC+, casual fans love him - smart fans know better) and then let him walk.