Blue Jays Discussion: And the off-season begins (list of FA's in Post #1)

[ShaneFalco]

I just can't imagine a scenario where we'd have JB and Saunders playing outfield next year.

I actually think they both walk, and they go hard after EE. Whether they get him or not depends on how much he wants to be here and...... Boston's offer

I'd like to see Cecil back, and I think Grilli may want to give it another shot at winning here.

 

[Discoverer]

I dislike Jay Bruce....so much. Its actually hard to articulate how much I dislike him as a player. Unfortunately, looking at the holes\needs\ways to improve or change the lineup, he fits in well (LHH, OF, HR replacement). It needs to be cheap and it needs to be short term. Essentially, you hope he can have a Trumbo-like season (putrid defense, dingerz spike with home park change, scratches a 120 wRC+, casual fans love him - smart fans know better) and then let him walk.

I think the only way in which he's an actual fit is that he's a left-handed hitter. He's not an OF (he's just a guy that can sort of fake it out there if you're desperate), and I don't think they'll look to replace the Encarnacion/Bautista/Saunders HR so much as they'll look to replace the overall value.

If he wants a $2-4 million for one year, then sure, take a chance on him. Otherwise, I don't think he makes any sense for the team right now.

 

[RCGP]

Ideally I'd let Edwin and Jose walk with QOs and replace them with Votto and JD Martinez via trade. Probably just in my dreams though.

 

[hoc123]

BA Blue Jays Top-10:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-toronto-blue-jays-top-10-prospects/#Vre5RTrlWdlMWHvl.97

1. V.Guerrero
2. A.Alford
3. S.Reid-Foley
4. C.Greene
5. R.Urena
6. R.Tellez
7. T.Zeuch
8. B.Bichette
9. J.Harris
10. J.Maese

my 2 cents:

Too High: Greene, Harris
Too Low: Tellez, Maese


Only Vlad's report available without a subscription:

"Scouting Report: Guerrero does just about everything evaluators want to see in a teenage hitter. He has tremendous hand-eye coordination and bat-to-ball skills, to the point he seems to have been born to hit. His special hands allow him to manipulate the barrel and square up pitches of all types. He has excellent strike-zone judgment for a 17-year-old, walking nearly as often as he struck out and showing an ability to lay off breaking balls that will be further tested at higher levels. He has tremendous raw power and showed the ability to drive the ball to all fields at an advanced rate for his age. Guerrero covers the plate well and should be an above-average hitter with 30-plus homer potential down the line. Some club officials have compared his overall offensive profile to that of Edwin Encarnacion, though with more speed, as he’s actually an average runner. Like Encarnacion, Guerrero has a chance to be a third baseman early in his career. Defense was rarely a focus of his as an amateur, and moving to third base from outfield has prompted Guerrero to work harder on all aspects of that side of the ball. He has improved his short-area quickness and arm strength the most. If he keeps working on his defense, he should have average range. Once owner of a below-average arm, he now flirts with a plus tool. His footwork has improved as well, and he made the routine play with some reliability in his debut. Guerrero has gotten his stocky body in better shape since signing, but it will always be a concern and is his biggest weakness as a prospect."

I agree with you that Greene is to high, but the others I would say are in the range I would say they should be. Urena is to low for me, should be top 2, maybe 3 depending on how much you like Alford. While I like Guerrero's potential, I can't put him top 3 yet. I like Bichette so far but I haven't seen enough of him to be top 10. I also seem to like Ramirez and McGuire more then most people.

My top 20:

1. Sein Reid Foley
2. Richard Urena
3. Anthony Alford
4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr
5. Rowdy Tellez
6. Harold Ramirez
7. Reese McGuire
8. T.J Zeuch
9. Justin Maese
10. Connor Greene
11. Jon Harris
12. Francisco Rios
13. Bo Bichette
14. Joshua Palacios
15. Max Pentecost
16. Angel Perdomo
17. J.B Woodman
18. Zach Jackson
19. Patrick Murphy
20. Ryan Borucki

 

[Canada4Gold]

Jays really should put a waiver claim in on Andrew Miller.

 

[Canada4Gold]

1. Urena
2. SRF
3. Tellez
4. Alford
5. Vlad Jr.
6. Maese
7. Harris
8. Pentecost(I believe in his ability to catch again)
9. Greene
10. Zeuch
11. Bichette
12. Ramirez
13. McGuire
14. Rios
15. Woodman

 

[lebdafor norris]

Overall I'm cheering for the Tribe to beat the Cubs but still, I hope Bauer gets destroyed whenever he pitch in this series.

 

[Bad News Benning]

Maese is definitely my favorite arm after SRF. Expecting a break out year for him next year in Lansing/Dunedin.

from what i saw in Vancouver this summer I'd say Palacios is ahead of Woodman on my board. Woodman has too much swing and miss that I think might get exposed as he moves to higher levels. Palacios has a nice line drive swing and doesn't strike out a ton which will serve him well moving forward.

Alvaro Galindo and Maximo Castillo will be two arms that will be in people's Top 20's in a year or two.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Maese is definitely my favorite arm after SRF. Expecting a break out year for him next year in Lansing/Dunedin.

from what i saw in Vancouver this summer I'd say Palacios is ahead of Woodman on my board. Woodman has too much swing and miss that I think might get exposed as he moves to higher levels. Palacios has a nice line drive swing and doesn't strike out a ton which will serve him well moving forward.

Alvaro Galindo and Maximo Castillo will be two arms that will be in people's Top 20's in a year or two.

Guilty as charged. I was trying to think of someone for the 15th spot. I didn't want to put Perdomo there(Move him to the pen and fast track him guys, he's rule 5 eligible for the 2nd time now, you keep this starter path and you'll run out of option years or lose in him the rule 5 draft before he gets to the majors) so I was choosing between Woodman and Palacios and I didn't know how to spell his name so I picked Woodman

 

[Eyedea]

Palacios very likely would have been a first day pick if not for his wrist injury in April.

I'm also more intrigued by Zeuch than the combination of Maese/Harris/Greene. 92-94 fastball with about as projectable a frame as you can expect in a pitcher. If he can tap into that extra velo and hit 94-96 consistently, couple it with his arm-side action, that pitch would become very devastating on right handed batters. He also has pretty solid command of the fastball despite being a rather raw college player.

 

[dredeye]

I think having EE on the team - if we can sign him - makes signing Bautista as well a very tough call. Bautista's OBP is nice, but if we can replace him with someone who can hit for a high average, especially in spots where there are RISP, we'll come out ahead. And I don't think it's just one pure hitter/OBP guy we need, I think we'd look good to get 2. One to replace the 'home run or nothing' style that we've seen from Bautista and one to replace Saunders who crashed and burned down the stretch.

People are too focused on HRs sometimes. A single or double can really stress a pitcher out, while a homerun is one and done. If (and that's a big if) we can get a guy like Votto (if Cincy will eat some $$) and then IF again, we can get a guy who can hit for average and has speed, we could potentially shift Travis to 2nd spot, have Donaldson at 3rd, EE clean-up and Votto in the 5 spot (followed by Tulo, Pillar and Martin).

Suddenly instead of just worrying about Donaldson, EE and Bautista, you've balanced things out a lot and I think that gets you back to the previous year's offensive team where pitchers soiled themselves on a nightly basis.

This is from a fan's perspective, I don't profess to know as much as most posters on here. And it should also be noted that I've always really like Bautista, but think it's time to move on.

If you made those move you don't leave Travis up. He either hits leadoff or 8th/9th. If you have a contact hitter with more speed he leads off.

you go speed
Donaldson
Votto
EE
Tulo
Martin

I'd want the lefty bat in the middle of our two power righty bats.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons joins Prime Time Sports to discuss the team’s exit from the postseason, which type of player the team needs to acquire this off-season, and his contract situation.

http://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_dema...-to-get-to-the-top-pts-20161026-Interview.mp3

 

[ShaneFalco]

Noone interested in Josh Reddick?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Noone interested in Josh Reddick?

His ISO has deteriorated four seasons in a row now. So no, not for what he'll likely sign for. If it was a one or two year deal at ~$8.5MM aav, then yes I'd consider it.

He's essentially the Caucasian version of Jason Heyward.

 

[Epictetus]

What are people using for defensive metrics? I'm not really seeing this premium defender in Reddick to justify a huge contract either.

 

[Kurtz]

His ISO has deteriorated four seasons in a row now.

'13: ISO .153
'14: ISO .182
'15: ISO .177
'16: ISO .123


He had a tough year (post trade), but he's still an excellent player and would be an excellent get. Will probably go for 3/36 or so, which I'd pay.

 

[one77]

Would be nice re-signing Encarnacion, Cecil, Grilli and then trading for Votto. Not sure what kind of players we'd need to send the Reds but Votto is a huge contract

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

'13: ISO .153
'14: ISO .182
'15: ISO .177
'16: ISO .123


He had a tough year (post trade), but he's still an excellent player and would be an excellent get. Will probably go for 3/36 or so, which I'd pay.

Base (25): .221 ISO, 0.59 GB/FB
Crater (26): .153 ISO, 0.80 GB/FB
Decline 1 (27): .182 ISO, 0.65 GB/FB
Decline 2 (28): .177 ISO, 0.95 GB/FB
Decline 3 (29): .123 ISO, 1.12 GB/FB

The decline is there. It appears non-linear because of the crater 2013, but its there. Very similar to Heyward, except Reddick's defense is no longer something worth paying for. I've liked him as a player, but I would prefer not to be holding the bag during year 2 and 3 of a contract with someone I could realistically see being a part time player on a good team.

 

[Discoverer]

His ISO has deteriorated four seasons in a row now. So no, not for what he'll likely sign for. If it was a one or two year deal at ~$8.5MM aav, then yes I'd consider it.

He's essentially the Caucasian version of Jason Heyward.

Without the amazing defense.

 

[Discoverer]

Base (25): .221 ISO, 0.59 GB/FB
Crater (26): .153 ISO, 0.80 GB/FB
Decline 1 (27): .182 ISO, 0.65 GB/FB
Decline 2 (28): .177 ISO, 0.95 GB/FB
Decline 3 (29): .123 ISO, 1.12 GB/FB

The decline is there. It appears non-linear because of the crater 2013, but its there. Very similar to Heyward, except Reddick's defense is no longer something worth paying for. I've liked him as a player, but I would prefer not to be holding the bag during year 2 and 3 of a contract with someone I could realistically see being a part time player on a good team.

Sounds like I feel the same way you do: I've always liked him, but I'm nervous about the decline and what it suggests going forward. The defense is a huge upgrade over Bautista and Saunders, but it's just solid/average. The power is a big concern.

Having said all that, his wRC+ against righties the last three years have been 141, 130, and 138. The power there has declined, too, but I would be really happy with him on a short-term deal with a reasonable salary (say, something like 2/$20 million) to play as the big half of a strict platoon. I just think he'll get quite a bit more than that.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Sounds like I feel the same way you do: I've always liked him, but I'm nervous about the decline and what it suggests going forward. The defense is a huge upgrade over Bautista and Saunders, but it's just solid/average. The power is a big concern.

Having said all that, his wRC+ against righties the last three years have been 141, 130, and 138. The power there has declined, too, but I would be really happy with him on a short-term deal with a reasonable salary (say, something like 2/$20 million) to play as the big half of a strict platoon. I just think he'll get quite a bit more than that.

Agreed completely.

Consider this: during his best month in 2016 (May), in which he was quite good (174 wRC+), he ran an ISO of .085 and a BABIP of .451. Essentially, turning himself into a slap hitter. And that's all well and good, but you're now banking on a guy who has a career BABIP of .280 to now rely on a high babip to reach the level of productivity you desire from a corner outfielder making north of $10MM.

 

[Eyedea]

Reddick still had a .163 ISO against righties and was 23rd in wRC+ against them this season. I'll take that. He's also completely changed as a hitter since 2012. For one, he doesn't hit fly balls 50% of the time anymore, and in the process cut his IFFB% from 14.4% (that year) to 5.6% (this year). He's also less pull, more centred approach, though he was never going to be shifted to the extreme anyway. And finally his K% has dropped 10%, allowing him to put the ball in play a lot more frequently. He's also done away with hitting lefties and righties at about an average clip. Yes he's strictly a platoon bat now, but he's also significantly better at hitting righties.

Defensively he's still considered average or so by UZR standards, arm and range aren't what they used to be but the latter is still a significant upgrade from Bautista. DRS thinks of him more as an above average defender, and Inside Edge shows he isn't particularly great at making routine catches, and has struggled with the likely (60-90%) catches. He gets credit for the unlikely ones (10-40%) compared to Bautista, but you can probably consider him closer to a 0 defender than a +5 or -5.

 

[Garlando]

I don't know what he would cost and whether the White Sox would be interested in moving him/starting over but Adam Eaton would be a big target of mine for the Jays. Eaton has quietly been a very good offensive player the last 3 years and after having moved to RF from Cf, was a great defender and as a result was one of the most valuable OF's in terms of WAR in the game last year. He's on a good deal too locked in until 2019 with 2 additional years as options.

The White Sox are in a difficult spot after not competing the last 2 years while trying to, maybe they decide to start fresh and perhaps Eaton is a guy who could be had for the right price. Thoughts?

 

[Eyedea]

I don't know what he would cost and whether the White Sox would be interested in moving him/starting over but Adam Eaton would be a big target of mine for the Jays. Eaton has quietly been a very good offensive player the last 3 years and after having moved to RF from Cf, was a great defender and as a result was one of the most valuable OF's in terms of WAR in the game last year. He's on a good deal too locked in until 2019 with 2 additional years as options.

The White Sox are in a difficult spot after not competing the last 2 years while trying to, maybe they decide to start fresh and perhaps Eaton is a guy who could be had for the right price. Thoughts?

Probably Stroman or Sanchez. Stroman+ even since he'll be starting arbitration now. I think they want bats though and we don't exactly have that to offer.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Reddick still had a .163 ISO against righties and was 23rd in wRC+ against them this season. I'll take that. He's also completely changed as a hitter since 2012. For one, he doesn't hit fly balls 50% of the time anymore, and in the process cut his IFFB% from 14.4% (that year) to 5.6% (this year). He's also less pull, more centred approach, though he was never going to be shifted to the extreme anyway. And finally his K% has dropped 10%, allowing him to put the ball in play a lot more frequently. He's also done away with hitting lefties and righties at about an average clip. Yes he's strictly a platoon bat now, but he's also significantly better at hitting righties.

I agree completely that he's changed his approach. He's very much so a platoon hitter who's more likely to slap hit because he has trouble pulling the ball. And that ISO was .239 two years ago, and .189 last year. Nice player if you can get him for something close to what he made in 2016.