Blue Jays Discussion: And the off-season begins (list of FA's in Post #1)

[Discoverer]

He's going to decline hard. I never understand these people that come with these "well, sometimes you got to do what you got to do..." arguments. Paying an aging (and declining) slugger for past performance is stupid. Let someone else do it.

Within two years of a contract, people who justify moves with "Sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do..." will inevitably be the same ones calling for the GM's head for handing out such an awful contract.

It's way too early to call him "declining" given that 2016 was the first year his numbers showed any sign of decline, but the risk is certainly there with a 34-year-old.

I'm on board with a deal at 4/80, and I could probably be talked into something a bit higher, but not by much.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Make the 5th year a club option?

a club option would be nice.
that 5 year is kinda skeery.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Within two years of a contract, people who justify moves with "Sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do..." will inevitably be the same ones calling for the GM's head for handing out such an awful contract.

It's way too early to call him "declining" given that 2016 was the first year his numbers showed any sign of decline, but the risk is certainly there with a 34-year-old.

I'm on board with a deal at 4/80, and I could probably be talked into something a bit higher, but not by much.

His numbers showed signs of decline? Where? What numbers?

 

[ShaneFalco]

a club option would be nice.
that 5 year is kinda skeery.

Yeah now that I think about it some more...... that is pretty steep at his age

 

[ACC1224]

Didn't E.E. have a career year?

 

[doorman]

​

When it comes to resigning EE I look at it this way, are you resigning Donaldson? If you are both those contracts don't fit, IMO, not with other needs and future pitching to resign or replace. All things being equal I would rather have Donaldson, period.

This team needs to get younger, faster and more well rounded and different doesn't mean worse. Plus this front office is smart, between them, they've built the Indians and Red Sox, so I am going to sit back try and not panic too much about who stays, goes and comes into replace.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Didn't E.E. have a career year?

No, not even close.

K's up, BB% static, average down, OBP down(because of average, walks were static as I said), ISO down, wRC+ down, defense down.

I mean he tied his career high for homeruns and had a career high in RBI so the casuals might suggest it was a career year, Hell Gregg Zaun will probably tell you he's improving not declining. I bet his ZARP was completely off the charts, but it was his 5th highest wRC+, and 4th highest career fWAR, all of the previous 3, and 4 came in the past 4 years. He was only better in fWAR compared to 2014, and that was because he played 32 more games than 2014. He was a better player in 2014

Basically his worst year of the last 5

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2151&position=1B/3B/DH

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Didn't E.E. have a career year?

To the layman, perhaps.

2012-2013 Edwin was so good. In modern times, the idea that a player with that kind of power struck out so little is ridiculous. 2014-2015 was slightly different, but still tremendous.

2016 Edwin was very good, but pales in comparison to those 4 years.

 

[Discoverer]

His numbers showed signs of decline? Where? What numbers?

His wRC+ ranged from 146 to 151 over the previous four years and dropped to 134 in 2016. Since that breakout season in 2012, his worst K% was 15.7%, and it increased to 19.7% in 2016.

That's not to suggest he can't cut down on the Ks again, but it's usually not a good sign. Maintaining his elite power is a great sign, though, and I don't think any of this "decline" is enough to suggest he's about to fall off a cliff.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

​

When it comes to resigning EE I look at it this way, are you resigning Donaldson? If you are both those contracts don't fit, IMO, not with other needs and future pitching to resign or replace. All things being equal I would rather have Donaldson, period.

This team needs to get younger, faster and more well rounded and different doesn't mean worse. Plus this front office is smart, between them, they've built the Indians and Red Sox, so I am going to sit back try and not panic too much about who stays, goes and comes into replace.

You can get younger, faster and more well rounded while having a cornerstone in their mid to late 30's locked in the middle of your lineup (see Sox, Red). That's a bad excuse (and a fallacy) to not re-sign Edwin.

The idea that re-signing Edwin would then mean you could not re-sign Donaldson is also a fallacy.

You're correct in your trepidation to re-sign him, but your reasons for said trepidation appear to be artificial.

 

[Discoverer]

You can get younger, faster and more well rounded while having a cornerstone in their mid to late 30's locked in the middle of your lineup (see Sox, Red). That's a bad excuse (and a fallacy) to not re-sign Edwin.

The idea that re-signing Edwin would then mean you could not re-sign Donaldson is also a fallacy.

You're correct in your trepidation to re-sign him, but your reasons for said trepidation appear to be artificial.

Not to mention that not re-signing Edwin does nothing to help the team get younger, faster and more well-rounded, since he would likely be replaced by an aging, unathletic stop-gap at 1B.

They have openings to bring in a couple corner OF. That's where there's an opportunity to get younger and faster. 1B/DH is where you want someone who can hit.

 

[ryno23]

You can get younger, faster and more well rounded while having a cornerstone in their mid to late 30's locked in the middle of your lineup (see Sox, Red). That's a bad excuse (and a fallacy) to not re-sign Edwin.

The idea that re-signing Edwin would then mean you could not re-sign Donaldson is also a fallacy.

You're correct in your trepidation to re-sign him, but your reasons for said trepidation appear to be artificial.

I think EE will be able to maintain very good production for 3 years of a 5 year deal then the last 2 years might be a downturn but still good enough numbers especially if the team plays in the postseason for the next few years.

The great thing about baseball is no cap. So yes Rogers has an internal cap but if they really wanted to resign EE and then extend Donaldson at fair market value there is nothing stopping them expect their balance sheet.

The fans have done their part the past 1.5 years and if they continue to come to the ball park in droves the no money excuse from Rogers is moot and would not be welcomed kindly but that would be on Rogers and not management.

DJQ would you sign EE for 5 years at 25 a year or less? What if they met at 22 mil a year for 5 years.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I think EE will be able to maintain very good production for 3 years of a 5 year deal then the last 2 years might be a downturn but still good enough numbers especially if the team plays in the postseason for the next few years.

The great thing about baseball is no cap. So yes Rogers has an internal cap but if they really wanted to resign EE and then extend Donaldson at fair market value there is nothing stopping them expect their balance sheet.

The fans have done their part the past 1.5 years and if they continue to come to the ball park in droves the no money excuse from Rogers is moot and would not be welcomed kindly but that would be on Rogers and not management.

DJQ would you sign EE for 5 years at 25 a year or less? What if they met at 22 mil a year for 5 years.

Its a sliding scale:

5 Years = less than ~$17.5MM because he's buying the years and I'm hedging the risk I undertake with the extra year
4 + PO = less than ~$18MM-$19MM. See above.
4 + TO = less than ~$20MM
4 years = $20-21MM
3 years = $23-25MM
2 years + PO = $25MM

There's no precedence to suggest otherwise, and I'm not interested in bidding against myself and setting the market. If he wants the fifth year, it will cost him. And he'd likely walk, and I'd be a villain among the fanbase. But my job isn't to please the fanbase in December, its to protect (and Direct\Manage) the franchise throughout the year and ultimately win.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Its a sliding scale:

5 Years = less than ~$17.5MM because he's buying the years and I'm hedging the risk I undertake with the extra year
4 + PO = less than ~$18MM-$19MM. See above.
4 + TO = less than ~$20MM
4 years = $20-21MM
3 years = $23-25MM
2 years + PO = $25MM

There's no precedence to suggest otherwise, and I'm not interested in bidding against myself and setting the market. If he wants the fifth year, it will cost him. And he'd likely walk, and I'd be a villain among the fanbase. But my job isn't to please the fanbase in December, its to protect (and Direct\Manage) the franchise throughout the year and ultimately win.

Pretty logical to me, 25M made me double take when I read the report.

 

[ryno23]

Its a sliding scale:

5 Years = less than ~$17.5MM because he's buying the years and I'm hedging the risk I undertake with the extra year
4 + PO = less than ~$18MM-$19MM. See above.
4 + TO = less than ~$20MM
4 years = $20-21MM
3 years = $23-25MM
2 years + PO = $25MM

There's no precedence to suggest otherwise, and I'm not interested in bidding against myself and setting the market. If he wants the fifth year, it will cost him. And he'd likely walk, and I'd be a villain among the fanbase. But my job isn't to please the fanbase in December, its to protect (and Direct\Manage) the franchise throughout the year and ultimately win.

Not a bad set up there.

 

[doorman]

You can get younger, faster and more well rounded while having a cornerstone in their mid to late 30's locked in the middle of your lineup (see Sox, Red). That's a bad excuse (and a fallacy) to not re-sign Edwin.

The idea that re-signing Edwin would then mean you could not re-sign Donaldson is also a fallacy.

You're correct in your trepidation to re-sign him, but your reasons for said trepidation appear to be artificial.

Given that the Jays have yet to sling out big money on multiple long term deals, i see it as realistic not artificial, but hey opinions vary it's what makes for debate.

 

[Discoverer]

Given that the Jays have yet to sling out big money on multiple long term deals, i see it as realistic not artificial, but hey opinions vary it's what makes for debate.

They took on both Russell Martin's $82 million contract and the ~$100 million on Tulo's contract within a year.

 

[doorman]

They took on both Russell Martin's $82 million contract and the ~$100 million on Tulo's contract within a year.

I get that, but do you see them adding EE at 25 mil per and then Donaldson at over 20 mil as well, not to mention other who will need raises? T I am not saying they don't have the means to do it, saying I do not see them doing it.

 

[Apotheosis]

To the layman, perhaps.

2012-2013 Edwin was so good. In modern times, the idea that a player with that kind of power struck out so little is ridiculous. 2014-2015 was slightly different, but still tremendous.

2016 Edwin was very good, but pales in comparison to those 4 years.

The year prior to this one, that EE, probably would have SMASHED this year's EE across all metrics, both advanced stats based and RBI/Homers.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I get that, but do you see them adding EE at 25 mil per and then Donaldson at over 20 mil as well, not to mention other who will need raises? T I am not saying they don't have the means to do it, saying I do not see them doing it.

Donaldson will probably be looking at closer to 30 million realistically.

 

[Deebo]

Donaldson will probably be looking at closer to 30 million realistically.

That will depend on his performance and health over the next 2 years.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Pretty logical to me, 25M made me double take when I read the report.

Not a bad set up there.

I imagine Kinzer is approaching every negotiation thinking and stating outloud "Votto is 34 in 2017, and essentially will be on a 8 year $197MM deal moving forward. That's the comp for Eddy. We're doing you a favor only asking for 5 years, but we want his AAV ($25MM).

I would rip him a new ******* ("Your client has never had a wOBA of 400, and his career high wRC+ does not equal Votto's average wRC+ over the last eight years") and send him on his way. He'd then likely try to pivot to the Davis contract, and I'd let him know he's four years late, and again send him on his way.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Donaldson will probably be looking at closer to 30 million realistically.

Or just the Adrian Beltre contract (2011: $14MM, 2012: $15MM, 2013: $16MM, 2014: $17MM, 2015: $18MM), classed up for inflation from 2011 to 2018.

Probably something closer to $23-25MM aav.

 

[trellaine201]

Unless another team matches it lol

Ya some team will offer more. Simple.

 

[doorman]

Donaldson will probably be looking at closer to 30 million realistically.

I was thinking long term with lower AVV was all I MEANT BY WELL OVER $20