Analyzing Dubas's Performance - III

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Having time to cool down, I really have to wonder if we're just losing coin flips. No the team isn't perfect. Yes they have clear flaws. But so does most every team in the playoffs, and so do teams that go farther than them. Last 4 years:

2017: L vs WSH (6)
2018: L vs BOS (7)
2019: L vs BOS (7)
2020: L vs CBJ (5)

25/26 possible games played. It's not like we're getting bodied. It's snatching defeat from the jaws of victory every year. It's frustrating.

I think the biggest criticism I have of the team is their inconsistent regular season performance. Yes they lost a coin flip series to a very tough defensive opponent in Columbus who got outstanding goaltending and there's really not much shame in that. But on the flip side, if they do even slightly better in the regular season then they go up against Florida instead and I think the Leafs probably would've won that series

 

[Auston Richard]

Like any manager there are pros and cons...I think he deserves the 5 years that, I believe, any manager should have to prove or disprove himself. I said 4 years ago that I thought we'd "start" competing, or "opening the window" as many posters seem to prefer, in 2020/21 so in my mind anyway he has 2-3 years to do his thing...I think he's a very intelligent guy that will adapt in any areas in which he feels he's come up short. There are many examples of teams that haven't met expectations as quickly as many fans would like. I'm fine with him going forward...

When a gm inherits a 105 point team, it's expected the team will take the next step immediately. Not in 5 years.

 

[Gallagbi]

Having time to cool down, I really have to wonder if we're just losing coin flips. No the team isn't perfect. Yes they have clear flaws. But so does most every team in the playoffs, and so do teams that go farther than them. Last 4 years:

2017: L vs WSH (6)
2018: L vs BOS (7)
2019: L vs BOS (7)
2020: L vs CBJ (5)

25/26 possible games played. It's not like we're getting bodied. It's snatching defeat from the jaws of victory every year. It's frustrating.

It's a fair question, but I'd also suggest we shouldn't be in a position to take CBJ to 5 games and need to close out at least 1 of the Bruins series

Not sure how much of that I put on Dubas given its the core that didn't get it done and we'd all have rode them to this point

 

[Mess]

"Sports is a results oriented business"

A GM will always be judged by the team he manages.

 

[Bluelines]

Looks like they wanted Ennis(always version) not Marchessault to me


Some would say the Tavares, Kadri and Muzzin moves were swing for the fences type situations, but he hasn't gutted the core.

All of those moves were low risk or something he was forced into doing. Trading for a 4th d-man, low risk, signing JT, perennial All Star, low risk. Kadri, cap constraints , forced him into the deal.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Having time to cool down, I really have to wonder if we're just losing coin flips. No the team isn't perfect. Yes they have clear flaws. But so does most every team in the playoffs, and so do teams that go farther than them. Last 4 years:

2017: L vs WSH (6)
2018: L vs BOS (7)
2019: L vs BOS (7)
2020: L vs CBJ (5)

25/26 possible games played. It's not like we're getting bodied. It's snatching defeat from the jaws of victory every year. It's frustrating.

I’ve wondered this as well. If we are a steam that can’t make it out of the first round than how come none of these teams steamroll us in the first round?

 

[ACC1224]

It was clear that having cap space was a temporary state of affairs and the 3rd year of that Marleau deal would be an issue. Many of us said it the minute the deal was signed and we were right. It was so obvious that this was a dumb move that to this day I can't imagine what the hell he was thinking.

I'm assuming he was thinking that the cap wouldn't be maxed out that quickly, he would still be around to deal with it and the worse case they would be paying Marleau 6+ to troll the 4th line or watch from the press box.

No one would argue it wasn't a bad signing.

 

[Auston Richard]

I don’t think Marner is overpaid but I think Dubas should have been able to get him for less. Aho and Rantanen are underpaid as Marner should be. Your supposed to get your star players locked down to a steal of a deal after their ELC when they have no arb rights.

It seems what you're trying to say is that Marner is overpaid for an rfa. And that's where everyone would agree with you. Marner was an rfa, not a ufa. So he is simply overpaid. What he would get on the open market has no bearing, as he wasn't a ufa.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I think the biggest criticism I have of the team is their inconsistent regular season performance. Yes they lost a coin flip series to a very tough defensive opponent in Columbus who got outstanding goaltending and there's really not much shame in that. But on the flip side, if they do even slightly better in the regular season then they go up against Florida instead and I think the Leafs probably would've won that series

They didn’t score against another structured defensive club with jam. They did not crash the crease. They stayed right in their offensive comfort zone and didn’t do the trench work nearly enough.

They should have been gone in game 4. They get a historical comeback overtime win. They should have came out flying in game five ornery and hungry. It didn’t take shape why. Its the composition of the players character.

They didn’t show up in game five and pulled a horse shoe out of their arses in 4.

Four years in a row of just not enough is enough.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Having time to cool down, I really have to wonder if we're just losing coin flips. No the team isn't perfect. Yes they have clear flaws. But so does most every team in the playoffs, and so do teams that go farther than them. Last 4 years:

2017: L vs WSH (6)
2018: L vs BOS (7)
2019: L vs BOS (7)
2020: L vs CBJ (5)

25/26 possible games played. It's not like we're getting bodied. It's snatching defeat from the jaws of victory every year. It's frustrating.

It's a valid question IMO and it's hard to say. Losing one coin flip is fine, so is two but three is I think where you start wondering WTF is going on. We're now at four so it's getting really hard to keep the faith so to speak. I've done the (rough) math and I figure the chances of us losing every year for the last for years is 8% tops so it's hard to take for sure.

I think the biggest criticism I have of the team is their inconsistent regular season performance. Yes they lost a coin flip series to a very tough defensive opponent in Columbus who got outstanding goaltending and there's really not much shame in that. But on the flip side, if they do even slightly better in the regular season then they go up against Florida instead and I think the Leafs probably would've won that series

I don't think that's fair to Florida TBH. People keep talking about how good we are but if we couldn't get past CLB, I see no reason to be confident that we could have handled Florida. And we all thought that we would probably beat CLB but here we are.

 

[Gallagbi]

I don't think that's fair to Florida TBH. People keep talking about how good we are but if we couldn't get past CLB, I see no reason to be confident that we could have handled Florida. And we all thought that we would probably beat CLB but here we are.

Florida is awful,CBJ was always going to be a tougher opponent than them

 

[Mess]

I'm assuming he was thinking that the cap wouldn't be maxed out that quickly, he would still be around to deal with it and the worse case they would be paying Marleau 6+ to troll the 4th line or watch from the press box.

No one would argue it wasn't a bad signing.

Horton LTIR $5.3 mil was on the books and overlapped Marleau $6.25 mil with the same term of 3 years. Players on LTIR can be pushed above the hard cap ceiling line and replaced by a healthy player as per CBA, (via a LTIR reimbursement system), which in laymen terms essentially allows 2 players salary cap hits to count as only 1 and the difference (if higher) would need to be accounted for and below the hard cap ceiling.

Marleau $6.25 mil - Horton $5.3 mil LTIR = $950k difference (same as a ELC player or one making near league minimum) would need to be counted among the $81.5 mil hard cap ceiling with the rest of above that line for players on LTIR. Therefore because of LTIR Marleau this year wouldn't have counted any more against Leafs cap then Mikheyev or Engvall $950K essentially. So Lou always had a plan to offset Marleau in year #3.

So in simple terms its $81.5 mil hard cap + Horton LTIR $5.3 mil = artificial hard cap $86.8 mil and still cap compliant. So it could have been viewed as Marleau $950k as part of the $81.5 mil and the balance $5.3 mil covered and overlapping Horton pushed above the hard cap ceiling,

Marner's entire $10.8 mil contract is essentially being covered because of Horton $5.3 mil and Clarkson $5.25 mil LTIR (above the Cap ceiling) = $10.55 mil LTIR. Its how Leafs are spending $95 mil cap this year with a hard cap of $81.5 mil... (Toronto Maple Leafs - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps).

The problem Dubas created was he now had to get rid of Marleau contract entirely or fit it below the hard cap as those get out of jail free LTIR contracts were needed to cover other contracts that totaled up to the hard cap ceiling and required all possible LTIR as well.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Like any manager there are pros and cons...I think he deserves the 5 years that, I believe, any manager should have to prove or disprove himself. I said 4 years ago that I thought we'd "start" competing, or "opening the window" as many posters seem to prefer, in 2020/21 so in my mind anyway he has 2-3 years to do his thing...I think he's a very intelligent guy that will adapt in any areas in which he feels he's come up short. There are many examples of teams that haven't met expectations as quickly as many fans would like. I'm fine with him going forward...

Lou had 3 years and took us from last to a franchise record in points (105).

Dubas has been here for 2 years and has already seen us regress (Shanahan said so himself)

Add on that Dubas traded our 1st round pick again and we missed the playoffs.

Dubas gets one more year max.

 

[EGL22]

For me another reason I have no trust in Dubas is because I can't believe he will change his ways.
I can't be the only fan that reads player rumours and if I see some player available that is called fast and skilled but under 6 ft and under 200 lbs my first reaction is oh oh.
On the flipside if a player known as a 4th line grinder with grit and an energy guy is available and is over 6 ft 200 lbs my reaction is yeah,we are not getting that guy.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Dubas has to trade numerous players by the looks of it to get defense and jam. Nylander and Johnsson to Montreal for Gallagher and Weber would be nice. Montreal might do it. Ifs of its a good trade for both. We need a defense not a tight rope walking circus of full gamblers and bad decisions for offense.

Dubas could make room for free agent defense also by trading others. Not a playoff team, we need many changes. Doable too.

 

[4thline]

Horton LTIR $5.3 mil was on the books and overlapped Marleau $6.25 mil same term of 3 years term. Players on LTIR can be pushed above the hard cap ceiling and replaced by a healthy player as per CBA, (via a LTIR reimbursement), which essentially allows 2 players salary cap to count as 1 and only the difference (if higher) would need to be below the hard cap ceiling.

Marleau $6.25 mil - Horton $5.3 mil LTIR = $950k difference (same as a ELC player or one making near league minimum) would need to be counted among the $81.5 mil hard cap ceiling with the rest of above that line for players on LTIR. Therefore because of LTIR Marleau this year wouldn't have counted any more against Leafs cap then Mikheyev or Engvall $950K essentially. So Lou always had a plan to offset Marleau in year #3.
.

Mess.

What's 6.25 +5.3 -5.3?

It doesn't matter whether it's the 1st time or the 100th time that you elect to display your ignorance to how LTIR works, it's still going to be wrong. LTIR provides space to replace the injured player, it does not provide extra space.

 

[7even]

It's a fair question, but I'd also suggest we shouldn't be in a position to take CBJ to 5 games and need to close out at least 1 of the Bruins series

Not sure how much of that I put on Dubas given its the core that didn't get it done and we'd all have rode them to this point

Yeah I dunno. Macroscopically you say a legitimately good team beats Columbus, and I would agree, and so I'm pessimistic from that. But then I see their series against TBL and it's like well shit. Tampa is up 3 games to one, but the goal differential is zero in that series, and all of Tampa's wins have been by one goal. Does that change how we look at our loss? And should it? Genuine questions.

 

[Spargon]

Lou had 3 years and took us from last to a franchise record in points (105). With Dubas as AGM helping build that team and being trained to take over and also leading Marlies to championships

Dubas has been here for 2 years and has already seen us regress (Shanahan said so himself) Only in Leaf land can a team who was garbage while trying to make the playoffs for a decade get mad when a team goes from 105 pts to 100 pts. This year we had more injuries than the last 2 years combine I'll bet and iced our best lineup a total of once before these weird play-in rounds which should be taken with a grain of salt in the perspective that this is the full representation of our team.

Add on that Dubas traded our 1st round pick again and we missed the playoffs. For a bad contract signed by Lou, with a player who was handcuffing his options

Dubas gets one more year max.

Is Dubas perfect? no, not a single GM is but anyone who thinks he is going anywhere in the next couple years barring a major set back like <80pts is going to be disappointed and mind as well not watch

I've said it several times now, we were ahead of what Shanny had planned for us in the start. They expected to draft Matthews and be a bubble team for a few years then start making noise. We went from 0-60 when Matthews came and made playoffs 4 years in a row and started setting franchise records, you can't do that every single year and now everyone is getting pissy we went back to 55

 

[Gallagbi]

Yeah I dunno. Macroscopically you say a legitimately good team beats Columbus, and I would agree, and so I'm pessimistic from that. But then I see their series against TBL and it's like well shit. Tampa is up 3 games to one, but the goal differential is zero in that series, and all of Tampa's wins have been by one goal. Does that change how we look at our loss? And should it? Genuine questions.

They're very good questions to be honest and something I go back and forth on. I think @Dekes For Days has done a good job analyzing what actually occured on the ice in the particular series vs. just the result, which as you say is the coin flip aspect

When I look at the TB series, they've carried much more of the play than we did IMO, and we still carried it more than CBJ. Id like to see the team get to a level where a CBJ can't stand in our way, but that next tier causes problems. Maybe that's unrealistic as we've seen with Montreal beating Pitts, and not even just this year but historically. Upsets happen.

I just feel like we haven't bought the good will specifically in the last three losses to say "shit happens" whether that's fair or unfair

 

[Morbo]

"Sports is a results oriented business"

A GM will always be judged by the team he manages.

how many roads must a man walk down

why did the chicken cross the road

a rolling stone gathers no moss

 

[DarkKnight]

"Sports is a results oriented business"

A GM will always be judged by the team he manages.

Imagine being more a fanboy of the G freaking M than the team you follow.

 

[Menzinger]

In theory yes but shouldnt a general manager get some credit for putting together a good scouting staff?

I understand that if scout X says to draft a certain player then its not really Dubas's doing but he's also the one whose employing said scout that's scooping winners.

Yep.

Management sets the approach/philosophy of the teams draft and also puts in place the head scout to oversee that vision. So GM's definitely can't be separated from the process even if they aren't directly responsible for each individual pick

 

[Gallagbi]

Imagine being more a fanboy of the G freaking M than the team you follow.

Such a bizarre post when the board is filled with posters giddy at the teams lack of success so they can claim they were right about the GM.

 

[Menzinger]

It was clear that having cap space was a temporary state of affairs and the 3rd year of that Marleau deal would be an issue. Many of us said it the minute the deal was signed and we were right. It was so obvious that this was a dumb move that to this day I can't imagine what the hell he was thinking.

Lou knew he wasn't under contract for that 3rd year so there was a fair chance he wouldn't have even had to deal with it. And he was right, it ended up being someone else's mess to clean up

 

[7even]

They're very questions to be honest and something I go back and forth on. I think @Dekes For Days has done a good job analyzing what actually occured on the ice in the particular series vs. just the result, which as you say is the coin flip aspect

When I look at the TB series, they've carried much more of the play than we did IMO, and we still carried it more than CBJ. Id like to see the team get to a level where a CBJ can't stand in our way, but that next tier causes problems. Maybe that's unrealistic as we've seen with Montreal beating Pitts, and not even just this year but historically. Upsets happen.

I just feel like we haven't bought the good will specifically in the last three losses to say "shit happens" whether that's fair or unfair

Good points. I'll have to think on it. Thanks for the reply.