Analyzing Dubas's Performance - III

[4thline]

Yeah I dunno. Macroscopically you say a legitimately good team beats Columbus, and I would agree, and so I'm pessimistic from that. But then I see their series against TBL and it's like well shit. Tampa is up 3 games to one, but the goal differential is zero in that series, and all of Tampa's wins have been by one goal. Does that change how we look at our loss? And should it? Genuine questions.

They're good questions. And it should change the way people see things. And to take your macroscopic point to it's most accurate, you say "a legitimately good team beats Columbus in a series more often than not, and a legitimately great team rarely loses"

Because based on what we saw in that series I think if we play it ten times we win 6 of them. But that's not good enough. We need to be the kind of team that wins it 7, 8, 9 times out of ten. Because as we all know the fate of any given one season is determined by playing the series just once, not 10 times

 

[DarkKnight]

Such a bizarre post when the board is filled with posters giddy at the teams lack of success so they can claim they were right about the GM.

I find the cult bizarre. What I said is spot on.

 

[Mess]

Florida is awful,CBJ was always going to be a tougher opponent than them

Florida was almost identical to Leafs statistically.

Toronto .. 70 games 36 wins 34 losses 9 OTL = 81 points [points% .578] ...... Goals For: 238 (3rd OV) & Goals Against: 227 (27th) = Difference +11
Florida .... 69 games 35 wins 34 losses 8 OTL = 78 points [points% .565] ..... Goals For: 231 (6th OV) & Goals Against: 228 (28th) = Difference +3

Leafs played 1 more game, recorded 1 more win and -1 less OTL, scored +7 more goals for and gave up -1 less than Florida on the regular season, with Florida having 1 game in hand.

Its always interesting that perspective suggests Leafs and Florida are viewed so differently with Florida being classified as awful and Leafs are a cup contender. Seems to me the line between awful and contender appears very small.

 

[Byron Bitz]

It seems what you're trying to say is that Marner is overpaid for an rfa. And that's where everyone would agree with you. Marner was an rfa, not a ufa. So he is simply overpaid. What he would get on the open market has no bearing, as he wasn't a ufa.

Agreed, however, some people define overpaid as not worth their contract and under that definition he is not overpaid.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Florida is awful,CBJ was always going to be a tougher opponent than them

It just seems pointless to me to speculate about who we might have beaten. We were favoured to beat CLB, but we lost and we could certainly have lost to Florida so who cares.

They're very questions to be honest and something I go back and forth on. I think @Dekes For Days has done a good job analyzing what actually occured on the ice in the particular series vs. just the result, which as you say is the coin flip aspect

When I look at the TB series, they've carried much more of the play than we did IMO, and we still carried it more than CBJ. Id like to see the team get to a level where a CBJ can't stand in our way, but that next tier causes problems. Maybe that's unrealistic as we've seen with Montreal beating Pitts, and not even just this year but historically. Upsets happen.

I just feel like we haven't bought the good will specifically in the last three losses to say "shit happens" whether that's fair or unfair

I was hoping that when healthy, we could dominate CLB the way TB is doing but we weren't as good as I was hoping. I still think we should have done it, game 2 we played just amazing, how does that team get shut out twice in five games and come within a few minutes of getting shut out 3rd time? Marner said he wasn't engaged in game 1, what's that all about? Hot goalie is a poor excuse too IMO no matter how much Dekes like to cry about that. We didn't play as well as we could/should have thereby beating ourselves, to me that's the bottom line.

Lou knew he wasn't under contract for that 3rd year so there was a fair chance he wouldn't have even had to deal with it. And he was right, it ended up being someone else's mess to clean up

A bit too cynical for me. I guess you never know though.

 

[Menzinger]

A bit too cynical for me. I guess you never know thoug

Perhaps a less cynical way of phrasing it is I doubt there was any plan beyond "we'll just deal with it when the time comes".

Either try and trade the guy like Dubas did, have less money to spend on free agency for that season and likely bridge one of the big 3.

 

[capfit9]

All of those moves were low risk or something he was forced into doing. Trading for a 4th d-man, low risk, signing JT, perennial All Star, low risk. Kadri, cap constraints , forced him into the deal.

It's really interesting how people keep bringing up cap constraints when talking about Kadri. They took on $6.25M with Barrie's and Kerfoot's contracts folks. No to mention that cap constraints were a creation of his. His failure to convince players coming off their ELC to fair contracts is his making. There is a reason agents "like" dealing with Dubasss.

 

[Cleetus]

Such a bizarre post when the board is filled with posters giddy at the teams lack of success so they can claim they were right about the GM.

not bizarre at all, fans wants the team to win, GM has failed in that aspect so far..... just claiming he has not got the job done so far....

 

[Gallagbi]

not bizarre at all, fans wants the team to win, GM has failed in that aspect so far..... just claiming he has not got the job done so far....

People happy about losing so they can claim they were right is completely contradicting the point he thought he was making.

 

[Cleetus]

People happy about losing so they can claim they were right is completely contradicting the point he thought he was making.

doubt the poster is happy, poster is a leaf fan...., just does not like losing, GM has failed so far pretty obvious...

 

[Gary Nylund]

Perhaps a less cynical way of phrasing it is I doubt there was any plan beyond "we'll just deal with it when the time comes".

Either try and trade the guy like Dubas did, have less money to spend on free agency for that season and likely bridge one of the big 3.

Yeah that's probably more likely.

 

[Ifittex il Verita]

Yeah I dunno. Macroscopically you say a legitimately good team beats Columbus, and I would agree, and so I'm pessimistic from that. But then I see their series against TBL and it's like well shit. Tampa is up 3 games to one, but the goal differential is zero in that series, and all of Tampa's wins have been by one goal. Does that change how we look at our loss? And should it? Genuine questions.

Tampa has outplayed Columbus by a fair bit during the parts of the series I've managed to catch...

 

[ACC1224]

Such a bizarre post when the board is filled with posters giddy at the teams lack of success so they can claim they were right about the GM.

There really is just a few on each side thankfully but they are relentless.
Most of us are in the middle trying to figure out where it all went wrong.

 

[Gallagbi]

There really is just a few on each side thankfully but they are relentless.
Most of us are in the middle trying to figure out where it all went wrong.

Yup

 

[sxvnert]

Shanny gave mr. analytics enough rope to hang himself this season and now its time he builds a balanced team. At most Dubas will get one more kick at the can before the fans demand his firing.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

It’s on Dubas right now. He thinks he can keep this lot together then it’s not long before he blew it and he’s gone. So I don’t suggest posters get comfortable with the current players if he figures it out.

It should not happen again that we have to watch only skill players that don’t want to get their nose dirty. This team doesn’t go to the net when a player has full possession of the puck and looking for someone in the paint. Hyman does. Hyman stays.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Such a bizarre post when the board is filled with posters giddy at the teams lack of success so they can claim they were right about the GM.

I like dubas and i am not to happy the way it’s turned out for him and for us fans. Hopefully he sees it is not a great scene with this group.

Every damn year it’s the debrusks,pierre luke Dubois and oshie’ that destroy us through hard work and jam. These are the guys beating us going back to the Washington series 4 years ago. Kind of telling after a bit.

Teams were running us and calling us easy until finally Clifford gets picked up. Jeezuz its a crime to have to be subjected to insanity year after year.

Hopefully the need for abrupt change finally slapped him off the head

 

[sparxx87]

Such a bizarre post when the board is filled with posters giddy at the teams lack of success so they can claim they were right about the GM.

I don’t think any of us wanted to be right, though.

The problem is that many of us were quoted with numerous condescending and insulting posts by an ignorant group of Dubas fanboys so it’s pretty natural to point out how foolish these people look a year and two years later... And I get it, Dubas represents hope for the less athletic types who were never able to get off the sidelines, but if you couldn’t make it out of minor hockey, you’re not qualified to build a professional hockey team. That shouldn’t be a controversial yet it has been. If you were ignorant enough to think otherwise, or obnoxious enough to insult the more sensible group who said it from the beginning then you should expect to hear about it right now. I don’t mean you personally, but just in general.

I want the Leafs to be successful, and I want Dubas out so a real GM can make that happen. There’s a good collection of talent that could make a very good team if it’s done right.

 

[Mess]

Perhaps a less cynical way of phrasing it is I doubt there was any plan beyond "we'll just deal with it when the time comes".

Either try and trade the guy like Dubas did, have less money to spend on free agency for that season and likely bridge one of the big 3.

Or Lou Lam's plan didn't include signing Tavares for $11 mil as the highest UFA all time in a cap world (something that happened 2 years in the future by another GM), with the 3 Amigos all about to come off their ELC and needing new contracts.

If Tavares decides to stay with NYI, and Leafs get that $11 mil cap space back is Marleau now a cap problem this season even with the current contracts Dubas gave out to the 3 amigos?

Tavares ($11 mil) - Marleau ($6.25 mil) = $4.75 mil extra free cap space to spend in addition to Marleau on the roster this year. Without any need to deal away Leafs 1st round pick to remove Marleau.

Unless Lou Lam is clairvoyant, he couldn't have possibly predicted he would have been replaced after taking Leafs from last overall to the playoffs the next year, when he signed Marleau.. Then the new GM would bring in a $11 mil UFA to create a cap problem 2 years later, and then get blamed for not having a plan to address that.

That is not even cynical those are the facts that ended up getting Leafs here.

 

[Gallagbi]

I don’t think any of us wanted to be right, though.

The problem is that many of us were quoted with numerous condescending and insulting posts by an ignorant group of Dubas fanboys so it’s pretty natural to point out how foolish these people look a year and two years later... And I get it, Dubas represents hope for the less athletic types who were never able to get off the sidelines, but if you couldn’t make it out of minor hockey, you’re not qualified to build a professional hockey team. That shouldn’t be a controversial yet it has been. If you were ignorant enough to think otherwise, or obnoxious enough to insult the more sensible group who said it from the beginning then you should expect to hear about it right now. I don’t mean you personally, but just in general.

I want the Leafs to be successful, and I want Dubas out so a real GM can make that happen. There’s a good collection of talent that could make a very good team if it’s done right.

Assuming I fall in to that category of the bolded as a guy not willing to burn him at the stake?

The arrogance this post is dripping with is exactly my point

 

[nuck]

Analyzed enough guys. No new arguments until he makes more moves. Nobody seems to be changing sides right now.

 

[Gabriel426]

Florida was almost identical to Leafs statistically.

Toronto .. 70 games 36 wins 34 losses 9 OTL = 81 points [points% .578] ...... Goals For: 238 (3rd OV) & Goals Against: 227 (27th) = Difference +11
Florida .... 69 games 35 wins 34 losses 8 OTL = 78 points [points% .565] ..... Goals For: 231 (6th OV) & Goals Against: 228 (28th) = Difference +3

Leafs played 1 more game, recorded 1 more win and -1 less OTL, scored +7 more goals for and gave up -1 less than Florida on the regular season, with Florida having 1 game in hand.

Its always interesting that perspective suggests Leafs and Florida are viewed so differently with Florida being classified as awful and Leafs are a cup contender. Seems to me the line between awful and contender appears very small.

You are spot on with the line between awful and contender appears very small.
I think once you make the playoffs, you have a chance to win the Cup if you have a forward that dominate and a goalie who is playing lights out. All these you need a #1 D and #1 C....will only show up after playoffs success. Also, once the team have playoff success or winning the Cup, players esp those bottom six will be view as great characters and will bring intangibles...instead of someone who is just another bottom 6 players.

 

[Gallagbi]

It's really interesting how people keep bringing up cap constraints when talking about Kadri. They took on $6.25M with Barrie's and Kerfoot's contracts folks. No to mention that cap constraints were a creation of his. His failure to convince players coming off their ELC to fair contracts is his making. There is a reason agents "like" dealing with Dubasss.

They filled two spots. Not sure you're getting much better value keeping Kadri and trying to fill the RHD slot elsewhere from a cap hit perspective

 

[4thline]

Assuming I fall in to that category of the bolded as a guy not willing to burn him at the stake?

The arrogance this post is dripping with is exactly my point

Brendan who? Shanahan? Clearly not a hockey man.

 

[mikeyz]

Analyzed enough guys. No new arguments until he makes more moves. Nobody seems to be changing sides right now.

I hope to god that I am wrong, but, I believe that when the dust is settled we’ll be comparing Dubas to JFJ.

I don’t have confidence in him at all to turn this ship around.