Analyzing Dubas's Performance - III

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Because two different coaches deemed the core piece of a trade where we sent a cheap #2 center wasn't capable of playing in the top 4 with either Muzzin or Rielly. Pretty telling at full health, both Babs and Keefe thought Barrie was best suited on the 3rd pairing, to the extent Holl and Ceci played above him. Two guys who are bottom pairing D themselves.

Under Keefe, Barrie was 2nd among D with 18:05 minutes played at 5v5. Even more than Muzzin. 22:02 in all situations. That doesn't sound like 3rd pairing minutes to me, unless every defenseman on the Leafs besides Rielly got 3rd pairing minutes

also, why not call Kadri a 3rd line center since that was his role with the Leafs? It makes you look disingenuous to look at Kadri's role with the Avs and Barrie's "role" with the Leafs

 

[Gary Nylund]

Nobody would be doing this in reverse. If the leafs won the Presidents trophy and then steamrolled 4 teams in a row to win the cup, nobody here would ignore those results and focus on analytics. "Sure, when it comes to wins and losses and playoff success, the team was fine. BUT Dubas is still horrible at his job because when you take a more 'in depth and accurate' evaluation and consider context, the team is actually pretty horrible." Sounds absolutely insane. And it's quite literally what you're doing. The leafs were tied for the last playoff position after 70 games, and then lost the qualifier to the freaking Blue Jackets. And yet here you are...

This is such a great post! Some people are so engrossed in their spreadsheets that they've forgotten that the games are played on the ice, statistics don't tell you the whole story and most importantly, wins and losses matter.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The entire reason for playing the game is to have playoff success.

Yes, and the best way to have playoff success over time is to be a good team.

The core is in their prime now.

No, they're about to enter it.

If they aren’t, then why the hell are they being paid so much money?

Because they earned it, just like everybody else.

In two more years, Matthews will be two years away from free agency.

That's a weird way to say 4 years.

The Leafs don’t have two seasons to waste with this group while Dubas gets on the job training and becomes an upper echelon GM.

It's not wasting. Trying to force an immediate cup will just set us back further.

 

[LeafsNation75]

The Isles are winning since Lou got there...it's about building a team, not signing a collection of expensive forwards like Dubas is doing...Lee's contract is not crippling and he's a solid and big player...you could use that $4.9 million dollar difference you pay Marner to sign a solid top 4 dman. And Pageau's contract looks like a bargain compared to what Dubas is paying Johnsson and Kapanen to do...Pageau is locked-in through his prime years, meanwhile I'm not sure what Johnsson and Kapanen are...if Dubas wasn't so dead-set on overpaying Marner (ie. just bridge him reasonably) to a longer term, he literally wouldn't have to move Marleau (and the Leafs' costly 1st round pick)...he could have bridged Marner, trade Johnsson and kept Marleau and the 1st.

Dubas could have traded Marleau to the Kings who were interested in him, however we know Marleau used his NMC since he would only want to play in San Jose and who knows what that type of trade would have looked like.

 

[Ifittex il Verita]

This is such a great post! Some people are so engrossed in their spreadsheets that they've forgotten that the games are played on the ice, statistics don't tell you the whole story and most importantly, wins and losses matter.

But it works great for them. They can just blame goaltending for everything when the results show how woefully wrong they are about the team.

 

[93LEAFS]

Under Keefe, Barrie was 2nd among D with 18:05 minutes played at 5v5. Even more than Muzzin. 22:02 in all situations. That doesn't sound like 3rd pairing minutes to me, unless every defenseman on the Leafs besides Rielly got 3rd pairing minutes

also, why not call Kadri a 3rd line center since that was his role with the Leafs? It makes you look disingenuous to look at Kadri's role with the Avs and Barrie's "role" with the Leafs

Look at where Barrie played in game 1 and 2 when we were at full health. On the 3rd pairing with Dermott.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Look at where Barrie played in game 1 and 2 when we were at full health. On the 3rd pairing with Dermott.

Gardiner played on the 3rd pairing with Dermott last playoffs. Does that mean he was a 3rd pairing defenseman for his entire time in Toronto?

 

[93LEAFS]

Gardiner played on the 3rd pairing with Dermott last playoffs. Does that mean he was a 3rd pairing defenseman for his entire time in Toronto?

Barrie was used as a 3rd pairing guy at our most crucial moment of the season until injury struck. Gardiner was playing with a debilitating back injury. Barrie didn't fit with either of our top 2 LHD. I think its pretty telling two different coaches put him on the 3rd pairing when the team was at full health.

Kadri was pretty clearly valued as a 2nd line center, regardless of where he was playing for us.

 

[nuck]

What a coup it would have been if Dubas had traded a 3rd for DeMelo and shipped out Barrie for a 2nd.

That would have been an admission that the deal was a failure, even though there was never any chance that Barrie was resigning. I actually thought when the trade first happened they were maybe going to flip Barrie for a more defensive RD right away. They could have got similar retention because of the low salary Barrie would be bringing with him.

 

[Superstar]

Dubas could have traded Marleau to the Kings who were interested in him, however we know Marleau used his NMC since he would only want to play in San Jose and who knows what that type of trade would have looked like.

Besides Marleau not waiving, it seems like Dubas didn't want to take any salary back so that he could overpay Marner...Kings probably would have wanted to unload one of their older guys, but if Dubas didn't want him, he also would have traded Marleau and the Leafs' 1st to the Kings if Marleau waived to go there.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Besides Marleau not waiving, it seems like Dubas didn't want to take any salary back so that he could overpay Marner...Kings probably would have wanted to unload one of their older guys, but if Dubas didn't want him, he also would have traded Marleau and the Leafs' 1st to the Kings if Marleau waived to go there.

If Marleau was willing to play for the Kings it would have been a more traditional trade, so I don't think we would have seen Dubas give up the Leafs 2020 1st round pick.

 

[Superstar]

If Marleau was willing to play for the Kings it would have been a more traditional trade, so I don't think we would have seen Dubas give up the Leafs 2020 1st round pick.

Dubas needed cap space to sign Marner...he can't take back salary like a traditional trade.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Dubas needed cap space to sign Marner...he can't take back salary like a traditional trade.

I meant for traditional that if Dubas and Rob Blake found a way to make the trade work since the Kings wanted Marleau to play for them, the Leafs would not have needed to give up their 2020 1st round pick to get rid of him.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Nobody would be doing this in reverse. If the leafs won the Presidents trophy and then steamrolled 4 teams in a row to win the cup, nobody here would ignore those results and focus on analytics.

I mean, I assume most of us would just be celebrating the win. I assume the analytics would be pretty great if we won the President's trophy and then steamrolled our way to a cup.

 

[All Mod Cons]

I meant for traditional that if Dubas and Rob Blake found a way to make the trade work since the Kings wanted Marleau to play for them, the Leafs would not have needed to give up their 2020 1st round pick to get rid of him.

Rob would've seen Kyle coming. Absolutely would've got a 1st from him. Probably Sandin as well.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Rob would've seen Kyle coming. Absolutely would've got a 1st from him. Probably Sandin as well.

That's why Dubas was able to keep Sandin when he traded for Jake Muzzin from Blake the Kings.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I mean, I assume most of us would just be celebrating the win. I assume the analytics would be pretty great if we won the President's trophy and then steamrolled our way to a cup.

You'd be surprised what some people would sink to in order to try and rationalize their agenda.

For example... get this... after two years of regression, turning into a playoff bubble team, and still not winning a playoff series (or even a qualifier)... there are still some people stat mining insanity to try and defend Dubas. I know that seems so outrageous so as to be impossible. But it IS happening. I kid you not.

 

[The CyNick]

Since Lou has taken over the Islanders some of the main contracts he's given out is $7 million AAV for 7 years to Anders Lee and $5 million AAV for 6 years to Jean-Gabriel Pageau. Never mind that he traded a 2020 1st and 2nd round picks for Pageau and gave him that contract extension right away.

We also don't know what Matt Barzal will want in his new contract and he could want similar money that Marner got for these reasons. They were both in the same draft class and he's got a Calder Trophy on his resume, which Marner did not have.

Lou is in the 2nd round for the second year in a row.

In those two years his team has laid waste to the Pens and Caps who have been the juggernauts of that division for the past decade.

He's done all that in two seasons since joining a team that was expected to be a bottom five team in the league. It's hard to argue with his success so far. It's amazing what experience can do.

Don't know if it's a coincidence or not, but in that same period when he left us with a 105pt team on the rise, we've turned into a team headed in the wrong direction, who can't qualify for the 1st round of the playoffs and has almost zero cap space.

 

[Dekes For Days]

For example... get this... after two years of regression, turning into a playoff bubble team, and still not winning a playoff series (or even a qualifier)... there are still some people stat mining insanity to try and defend Dubas.

We haven't had two years of regression. We've had one year with a bit of a step back for obvious reasons mostly unrelated to roster construction, after we had our best year in 2018-2019. Looking at stats isn't about "defending Dubas". It's about getting informed, accurate evaluations of the different aspects of our team to understand how to best move forward.

 

[ShaneFalco]

That's why Dubas was able to keep Sandin when he traded for Jake Muzzin from Blake the Kings.

Doesn’t fit the narrative