Analyzing Dubas's Performance - III

[Dekes For Days]

I wasn’t comparing them to Holl.

My bad then. Thought that was tied to the previous discussion.

 

[DavePoulin4PM]

The reality is that Kerfoot and Holl are fringe NHLers, who should be making the vet minimum and both will probably be in the KHL in 2 years. 5.5 million for 2 players, who should be making vet minimum. Add Engvall on there as well. He is not an NHL caliber player. Dubas needs to go.

 

[fahad203]

The reality is that Kerfoot and Holl are fringe NHLers, who should be making the vet minimum and both will probably be in the KHL in 2 years. 5.5 million for 2 players, who should be making vet minimum. Add Engvall on there as well. He is not an NHL caliber player. Dubas needs to go.

I think Engvall is very capable NHL player or will be. He's still very raw and he hasn't even played a full season yet

Kerfoot is a decent player but not the player Leafs need

Between kerfoot Kahane Johnson I almost can't tell them apart. Too many similarities among them

Look at Vancouver, they have a mix of players with skill and grit. Would love to add someone like Crouse or Virtanen who cam skate and play physical

 

[sparxx87]

I can't believe that I'm indirectly defending Dubas' handling of any contract negotiations... Where exactly do you find these competent 3rd pairing experienced RHD who make considerably less than $2M AAV?

I went on cap friendly and 3rd team from the top, the Boston Bruins, and found Connor Clifton as a similar example. He’s 3 years younger with similar experience on a much deeper blueline. He extended for 3 x 1M, half as much as Justin Holl. Quickly checked the St Louis Blues - Carl Gunnarsson (1.75m) and Robert Bortuzzo (1.38m) both make less than Justin Holl will.

I looked at 4 teams. Go look at the other 27 and tell me how many teams you see with equal and/or better defensemen making less money.

I think the number is higher than you realize and Justin Holl was a 28 year old with essentially a blank NHL resume.

 

[ACC1224]

Problem isn't Holl making 2 mil as a #4 defenseman.
The problem is using Holl as a #4 defenseman.

 

[Morbo]

Problem isn't Holl making 2 mil as a #4 defenseman.
The problem is using Holl as a #4 defenseman.

Or Ceci, for that matter. both are fairly mediocre bottom pairing types.

I would prefer Holl of the two at 5 as his game is simpler -- Holl understands his talent is more limited, unlike Ceci who fancies himself a skilled player (I wonder if they've found that puck he fired wide of the net vs the Jackets yet. that thing might be in Australia somewhere)

 

[Mess]

Problem isn't Holl making 2 mil as a #4 defenseman.
The problem is using Holl as a #4 defenseman.

That unfortunately is the situation Dubas find himself in presently, in what might be his Leaf tenure defining year.

When Leafs were putting up 105 best franchise setting points a few years back Holl was a spare part, dressing for only 2 games and now the 28 year old journeyman Dman is currently the best and only option they have playing on the right side defense.

Reilly ----------------- XXXX
Muzzin -------------- Holl
Dermott (RFA) ----- XXXX (should be Holl)

That is Leafs present situation with both Barrie and Ceci expected to be departing via UFA, leaving Leafs with $4.6 mil to spend on 6 players to fill out the roster including those missing vital XXXX roster spots. Keeping in mind this team finished bottom 5 in goals against and in need of a major overhaul.

 

[Stephen]

In other words, there isn't one. I asked a simple question in response to an unsupported claim.

You won't listen. Pointless.

My boy Dylan DeMelo would fit that profile pretty nicely. RHD, defensive defenseman, 27, UFA, making exactly $900,000 and acquired for a third round pick, which is what we paid out for the Kyle Clifford half of the LA trade... can't help but think he would have been a good low key Leaf pick up.

 

[Wiseguys]

Dubas has to take off his blinkers and realize that the 8 teams that have advanced to the second round, have a combination of skill and grit. Grit players that have passion and determination and know what it takes to win. Skill alone only works in non contact sports. Take off your blinkers Dubas, you have the skill now find some grit if you want to have any chance of moving on.

 

[Ifittex il Verita]

$2 million for a 3rd pairing defenceman is an over-payment and over-budget.

Even moreso for a team with $40 million tied up in 4 forwards.

Holl was exposed pretty badly when Muzzin went down as someone not capable of leading his own pairing.

He's a passenger.

Tampa's right side:
Cernak: 700K
Bogosian: 1.3M
Shattenkirk: 1.75M

But were supposed to worship Dubas getting Justin Holl for 2M.

 

[Dreakmur]

Engvall as well. Two bottom line/pair players with next to no body of work at the NHL level. They have no leverage, so why is Holl getting 2m when most teams sign these players for 900k? Why does Engvall make 1.2m on his extension when other teams sign borderline players like this for 700k?

He extended Trevor Moore for 750k x 2. Freddy Gauthier 675k x 2. Denis Malgin got 750k. Malgin signed with Florida but these are the numbers you expect for marginal players who haven’t solidified an NHL role.

For some reason Dubas decided to be generous, maybe because Engvall and Holl were Marlies? But status quo saves ~ 1.5m on two nothing players at the bottom of your roster for a team trying to penny pinch.


Hard to understand what he’s thinking.

Dubas loves his Calder Cup Marlies.

 

[Ifittex il Verita]

Or Ceci, for that matter. both are fairly mediocre bottom pairing types.

I would prefer Holl of the two at 5 as his game is simpler -- Holl understands his talent is more limited, unlike Ceci who fancies himself a skilled player (I wonder if they've found that puck he fired wide of the net vs the Jackets yet. that thing might be in Australia somewhere)

Our entire right side this year consisted of bottom pairing and/or sub NHL players. Holl played good hockey for a month and Dubas immediately gave him an undeserved contract.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I went on cap friendly and 3rd team from the top, the Boston Bruins, and found Connor Clifton as a similar example.
Quickly checked the St Louis Blues - Carl Gunnarsson (1.75m) and Robert Bortuzzo (1.38m) both make less than Justin Holl will.

Clifton had 19 NHL games, was a #8 defenseman, and was an RFA that signed a year ago.

Gunnarsson had just come off like 4 different injuries that had limited him to just 25 games. He was the #6 defenseman on the team, and signed a year ago for less term and a similar cap hit percentage.

Bortuzzo was the #6-7 defenseman, and signed over a year ago.

These were not comparables for Holl.

 

[Dekes For Days]

My boy Dylan DeMelo would fit that profile pretty nicely. RHD, defensive defenseman, 27, UFA, making exactly $900,000

Demelo was an RFA, and a #7-8 defenseman when he signed.

 

[Dreakmur]

I can't believe that I'm indirectly defending Dubas' handling of any contract negotiations... Where exactly do you find these competent 3rd pairing experienced RHD who make considerably less than $2M AAV?

Zach Bogosian literally approached Dubas and asked to sign with Toronto for cheap.

 

[Ifittex il Verita]

Zach Bogosian literally approached Dubas and asked to sign with Toronto for cheap.

He would have stepped in and immediately been our best RHD.

 

[fahad203]

Holl earned that extension through quality minutes as a #5 d-man.

He had 10 games where he looked decent. Otherwise he was pretty mediocre. Nothing about his performance suggests 2 million

 

[Oscar Peterson]

He had 10 games where he looked decent. Otherwise he was pretty mediocre. Nothing about his performance suggests 2 million

I think he was finally finding success early this season when he knew his limitations and just kept things simple and focused in the defensive-end. As soon as we give him that contract, dude thinks he's Bobby Orr and tries to rush the puck every time it touches his stick. If he can understand that he doesn't have the talent to play that way and get back to simple hockey, he can be an effective player again. Definitely think that contract was given out too soon.

 

[Mickey Marner]

My boy Dylan DeMelo would fit that profile pretty nicely. RHD, defensive defenseman, 27, UFA, making exactly $900,000 and acquired for a third round pick, which is what we paid out for the Kyle Clifford half of the LA trade... can't help but think he would have been a good low key Leaf pick up.

What a coup it would have been if Dubas had traded a 3rd for DeMelo and shipped out Barrie for a 2nd.

 

[ACC1224]

In hindsight we should probably be thankful they didn't sign Holl for more than two.

 

[Stephen]

Demelo was an RFA, and a #7-8 defenseman when he signed.

He was a good defensive option by the end of 2019. A heads up organization should have had their pro scouting looking at options like that especially when DeMelo was down the road in Ottawa the whole season and readily available.

Isn’t the whole point of analytical Moneyball the ability to find under the radar people like DeMelo?

 

[Stephen]

Zach Bogosian literally approached Dubas and asked to sign with Toronto for cheap.

Then David Ayres happened and the Leafs pulled the plug.

 

[Dreakmur]

Then David Ayres happened and the Leafs pulled the plug.

It was a free agent. Nothing to even give up to get him.

If the Leafs really did pull the plug there, why keep the UFAs? Ceci and Barrie were never coming back. If we decided this wasn't a winning team, they should have been moved for futures.

 

[Dreakmur]

He was a good defensive option by the end of 2019. A heads up organization should have had their pro scouting looking at options like that especially when DeMelo was down the road in Ottawa the whole season and readily available.

Isn’t the whole point of analytical Moneyball the ability to find under the radar people like DeMelo?

Demelo looked good in San Jose too. He was always a guy waiting for a chance to break into the top-4.

 

[Superstar]

Then David Ayres happened and the Leafs pulled the plug.

I think the Lightning came in last minute and scooped him up after the "losing to a zamboni driver" incident...that made Bogosian think twice about joining the Leafs, so he signed with the Lightning.