Analyzing Dubas's Performance - III

[Dekes For Days]

I’d argue the goaltending stats were poor because it was a lacklustre D in front of them.

It's the best defensive results this team has had under this core.

The D was lacklustre because too much cap space was tied up in overpayments.

The contract total of our top 6 D was over 20m, with Dermott on ELC and Holl making less than 700k. Nothing wrong with that.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

It's the best defensive results this team has had under this core.

The contract total of our top 6 D was over 20m, with Dermott on ELC and Holl making less than 700k. Nothing wrong with that.

Funny how, despite your endless rationalizations, the team never succeeds. In fact, not only are they not succeeding... they're regressing. Two years in a row.

Everytime another team regresses, it's because they suck and their gm made poor choices. But whenever the leafs lose... it's "bad luck". The mental gymnastics necessary to buy into that...

 

[Cleetus]

I’d argue the goaltending stats were poor because it was a lacklustre D in front of them. The D was lacklustre because too much cap space was tied up in overpayments.

funny watching these playoffs, and looking at our D, how can someone defend our Backend.... dont care what the analytics say, our d core is f***ing brutal

 

[Dekes For Days]

In fact, not only are they not succeeding... they're regressing. Two years in a row.

2018-2019 was our best year.

Everytime another team regresses, it's because they suck and their gm made poor choices.

That's not true either.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Might as well add in Stamkos, since he seems pretty popular.

ES Points/60

McDavid: 2.89
Matthews: 2.72
Stamkos: 2.31
Eichel: 1.64

ES Primary points/60

Matthews: 2.36
McDavid: 2.20
Stamkos: 1.85
Eichel: 1.29

ES Goals/60

Matthews: 1.59
Stamkos: 1.12
McDavid: 1.01
Eichel: 0.69

PP Points/60

Matthews: 6.47
McDavid: 6.44
Eichel: 6.30
Stamkos: 5.77

PP Primary points/60

Matthews: 5.06
Eichel: 4.76
Stamkos: 3.99
McDavid: 3.61

PP Goals/60

Stamkos: 3.07
Matthews: 2.95
Eichel: 2.52
McDavid: 0.94

 

[biotk]

I’d argue the goaltending stats were poor because it was a lacklustre D in front of them. The D was lacklustre because too much cap space was tied up in overpayments.

funny watching these playoffs, and looking at our D, how can someone defend our Backend.... dont care what the analytics say, our d core is f***ing brutal

Well if you look at the 7 teams that have moved on to the second round so far - what they have in common is that they mostly have soft, small, puck-moving D and L - R splits are of the utmost importance. So Toronto's D-pipeline is looking really smart.

Bahahaha

Yeah right.

Colorado has Graves, Johnson, Cole and Zadorov - all 220+ pounds. Dallas has Oleksiak, Lindell and Johns. Four of Tampa's six D are at least 6' 3" and more than 215 pounds. Now, of course, it shouldn't need to be said, that doesn't mean that every D on the teams is big. Most of those teams have a small D or two, surrounded by 4 big, mean D...which means to the Dubas fanatics that a whole team of small and/or soft D will work out just fine.

And only 2 of the 7 teams have 3 RHDs and 3 LHDs - Tampa (because they signed Bogo in February) and Philly. The rest have 4 LHD and 2 RHD, except for Vegas which has success again with 5 LHD and only 1 RHD.

 

[Stephen]

It interesting to see a guy like Ben Chiarot play a big role in Montreal's run and be a pretty solid defenseman. Or Dylan DeMelo have success in Ottawa earlier in the year. Curious why the Leafs are incapable of finding these relatively affordable, obscure defensemen who can just play defense in a quiet manner.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Boston's 2nd and 3rd most played defensemen this playoffs are both 5 foot 9 and ~180 pounds.

 

[BertCorbeau]

It interesting to see a guy like Ben Chiarot play a big role in Montreal's run and be a pretty solid defenseman. Or Dylan DeMelo have success in Ottawa earlier in the year. Curious why the Leafs are incapable of finding these relatively affordable, obscure defensemen who can just play defense in a quiet manner.

There's nothing quiet about playing defense in a quiet manner in Toronto. Everything is exaggerated. Mistakes or negatives from DeMelo and Chariot don't seem to get brought up that often.

 

[Stephen]

There's nothing quiet about playing defense in a quiet manner in Toronto. Everything is exaggerated. Mistakes or negatives from DeMelo and Chariot don't seem to get brought up that often.

Though Chiarot plays in Montreal and their fans are penciling him in as their first line LHD for next season, albeit with Shea Weber.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Though Chiarot plays in Montreal and their fans are penciling him in as their first line LHD for next season, albeit with Shea Weber.

Fair point but it's not like we haven't seen some promising d-men get pencilled in roles above their head around here either.

Honestly I see what you're saying but I think Dermott is one of those types. Still refining his game and has the occasional gaffe but he has strong poise with the puck, knowing when to rush with it, pass (and make the first pass), or hold on to it. Physical with enough size to hold his own. Just needs some maturity in his game.

But also look at their NHL experience - those guys have paid their dues, been in the league for a few years already and are now starting to come into their own. We need some of that patience around here and not give up on these guys so quickly.

 

[Dreakmur]

It interesting to see a guy like Ben Chiarot play a big role in Montreal's run and be a pretty solid defenseman. Or Dylan DeMelo have success in Ottawa earlier in the year. Curious why the Leafs are incapable of finding these relatively affordable, obscure defensemen who can just play defense in a quiet manner.

They have a support system. It's easier to look good in a solid system.

Toronto defensemen are totally abandoned by the forwads.

 

[93LEAFS]

Might as well add in Stamkos, since he seems pretty popular.

ES Points/60

McDavid: 2.89
Matthews: 2.72
Stamkos: 2.31
Eichel: 1.64

ES Primary points/60

Matthews: 2.36
McDavid: 2.20
Stamkos: 1.85
Eichel: 1.29

ES Goals/60

Matthews: 1.59
Stamkos: 1.12
McDavid: 1.01
Eichel: 0.69

PP Points/60

Matthews: 6.47
McDavid: 6.44
Eichel: 6.30
Stamkos: 5.77

PP Primary points/60

Matthews: 5.06
Eichel: 4.76
Stamkos: 3.99
McDavid: 3.61

PP Goals/60

Stamkos: 3.07
Matthews: 2.95
Eichel: 2.52
McDavid: 0.94

P/60 at 5v5 is one measurement. Not the be-all and end-all. Matthews this year when he got the first line usage many people were begging for fell from being 3rd among guys who played over 1500 minutes during the 2017/18 and 2018/19 season, to 35th in 2019/20 of guys who played over 700 minutes.

Last year Tavares had a better P/60 at 5v5 and G/60 at 5v5, why should Matthews have a higher cap-hit than JT?

Ironically, in the final year of there ELC's, Stamkos and Matthews both finished 11th overall in the league of players who played over 800 minutes in P/60 at 5v5. Matthews finished 6th and Stamkos finished 8th. But, nope that isn't Matthews reasonable comparable....

 

[Community]

Well if you look at the 7 teams that have moved on to the second round so far - what they have in common is that they mostly have soft, small, puck-moving D and L - R splits are of the utmost importance. So Toronto's D-pipeline is looking really smart.

Bahahaha

Yeah right.

Colorado has Graves, Johnson, Cole and Zadorov - all 220+ pounds. Dallas has Oleksiak, Lindell and Johns. Four of Tampa's six D are at least 6' 3" and more than 215 pounds. Now, of course, it shouldn't need to be said, that doesn't mean that every D on the teams is big. Most of those teams have a small D or two, surrounded by 4 big, mean D...which means to the Dubas fanatics that a whole team of small and/or soft D will work out just fine.

And only 2 of the 7 teams have 3 RHDs and 3 LHDs - Tampa (because they signed Bogo in February) and Philly. The rest have 4 LHD and 2 RHD, except for Vegas which has success again with 5 LHD and only 1 RHD.

The best dmen in the playoffs so far are smaller players.

Colorados top two dmen are Makar and Girard.

Dallas #1 & 3 (by minutes, you could easily argue their actual #1 & 2) dmen are Heiskenen and Klingberg.

Philly's #1 & 3 dmen are Provorov and Sanheim

Vancouver's #1 Dman is Hughes.

Bostons #1 & 2 dmen are McAvoy and Krug.

NYI, Vegas, and TBL are the only three teams who have #1s that fit your description of bigger dmen.

You want the 6 best players, 2-4 dmen who can play PP, and 4 dmen that can PK. As long as you have that, its more important that their skilled players than their simply big. Yes, you cant have 6 offensive players, but one of the best defensive dmen of all time was only 190lbs (Lidstrom). Defensive acumen >>> Size.

 

[Community]

They have a support system. It's easier to look good in a solid system.

Toronto defensemen are totally abandoned by the forwads.

Mostly agree, but there was times when Toronto did a great job of utilizing their system to provide puck support all over the ice this year (CBJ game #2 (I think it was #2 at least) was a great example).

They need to figure out if the current personnel can run that system successfully and if they can run it consistently.

The talents there to score. The system (when run properly) seems to support defense and offense.

The result in year 1 was obviously that the team wasnt able to consistently run the system. I hope it was the new coach not having enough time to engrain it into them, but I fear its that some players are not cut out for it or fall back on old habits too easily.

Obviously still need to try and make upgrades, but by far the biggest thing hampering this team is not being able to stick to their gameplan for extended periods of time.


They start falling back with leads, dont start on time, get frustrated and try to force plays, and gamble far too often. Stick to the damn system so that everybody is on the same page and it will work better than players cheating to try and produce offense.

 

[biotk]

The best dmen in the playoffs so far are smaller players.

Colorados top two dmen are Makar and Girard.

Dallas #1 & 3 (by minutes, you could easily argue their actual #1 & 2) dmen are Heiskenen and Klingberg.

Philly's #1 & 3 dmen are Provorov and Sanheim

Vancouver's #1 Dman is Hughes.

Bostons #1 & 2 dmen are McAvoy and Krug.

NYI, Vegas, and TBL are the only three teams who have #1s that fit your description of bigger dmen.

You want the 6 best players, 2-4 dmen who can play PP, and 4 dmen that can PK. As long as you have that, its more important that their skilled players than their simply big. Yes, you cant have 6 offensive players, but one of the best defensive dmen of all time was only 190lbs (Lidstrom). Defensive acumen >>> Size.

I will just repeat what I said in the post you quoted:

"Most of those teams have a small D or two, surrounded by 4 big, mean D...which means to the Dubas fanatics that a whole team of small and/or soft D will work out just fine."

I have already wasted days of my time explaining who all of those "best dmen in the playoffs" play with (Graves, Johnson, Oleksiak, Lindell, Niskanen, Myers, Tanev, Chara and Carlo). Toronto doesn't have a single player like that to play with any of their dozen up-and-coming tea-cup sized D.

 

[Superstar]

funny watching these playoffs, and looking at our D, how can someone defend our Backend.... dont care what the analytics say, our d core is f***ing brutal

Looking at how Vancouver beat the champs...you know what their GM will say to Pettersson and the other RFAs when it's time to renew their contracts? "Here, look at the pathetic overpayments with the Leaf players, don't be greedy like them and we'll continue to win!" Other GMs are looking at Dubas and the Leaf situation and probably laughing their a55 off. So sick and tired hearing Dubas say it's up to him to build around the perimeter of the core 4 like he's some genius...sure, let's bring in old man Joe Thornton to see if he's using a hockey stick on the ice or an up-side-down cane...if you need Joe Thornton to be the difference maker, you got a big problem...what's the plan after that? Bring Carlo Colaiacovo out of retirement to augment the defense? After all, gotta leverage those market inefficiencies that other GMs aren't smart enough to gravitate to.

 

[HC7]

Small D-Men are just not it.

Our best D? Muzzin, who is a monster.

 

[Superstar]

The best dmen in the playoffs so far are smaller players.

Colorados top two dmen are Makar and Girard.

Dallas #1 & 3 (by minutes, you could easily argue their actual #1 & 2) dmen are Heiskenen and Klingberg.

Philly's #1 & 3 dmen are Provorov and Sanheim

Vancouver's #1 Dman is Hughes.

Bostons #1 & 2 dmen are McAvoy and Krug.

NYI, Vegas, and TBL are the only three teams who have #1s that fit your description of bigger dmen.

You want the 6 best players, 2-4 dmen who can play PP, and 4 dmen that can PK. As long as you have that, its more important that their skilled players than their simply big. Yes, you cant have 6 offensive players, but one of the best defensive dmen of all time was only 190lbs (Lidstrom). Defensive acumen >>> Size.

Having a couple of small d men is fine as long as your whole team is not soft, which the Leafs are.

 

[meefer]

Big, small, defensively oriented, or whatever, we are not going to win anything when we have but 1 D pair that can be thrown onto the ice that inspires confidence. And, that pair is a 1B at best! Like Rielly and Hainsey before them, Muzz and Holl are not a bad pairing, I'm happy to see them jump over the boards. But then...Rielly and Ceci???...come on, we've been watching that play out for years with any number of role players subbing in for Ceci (apologies to RH). Barrie didn't work out. Full stop. I believed the trade with Colorado was a pretty good one at the time. While I think Kerfoot has more to offer, the Barrie part of it didn't work and we were stuck in the same place as we've been for years. 1 decent defense pair, and 2 that were vulnerable. I don't care what type of Dman Dubas acquires this off season, but that player has to allow the Leafs the chance to ice 2 quality pairings.

 

[Superstar]

Big, small, defensively oriented, or whatever, we are not going to win anything when we have but 1 D pair that can be thrown onto the ice that inspires confidence. And, that pair is a 1B at best! Like Rielly and Hainsey before them, Muzz and Holl are not a bad pairing, I'm happy to see them jump over the boards. But then...Rielly and Ceci???...come on, we've been watching that play out for years with any number of role players subbing in for Ceci (apologies to RH). Barrie didn't work out. Full stop. I believed the trade with Colorado was a pretty good one at the time. While I think Kerfoot has more to offer, the Barrie part of it didn't work and we were stuck in the same place as we've been for years. 1 decent defense pair, and 2 that were vulnerable. I don't care what type of Dman Dubas acquires this off season, but that player has to allow the Leafs the chance to ice 2 quality pairings.

Problem is that Holl is bad, he's not a top 4 d man. He's a 3rd pairing guy and struggles badly playing against top competition.

 

[93LEAFS]

Have a couple of small d men is fine as long as your whole team is not soft, which the Leafs are.

Outside of Barrie non of our D are particularly small who played in the playoffs. The issue is we don’t really have a RHD who compliments Rielly, or can be used in a heavy lifting shutdown role with Muzzin.

It’s more an issue of ability and play-style than size. Someone like prime Stralman would fit in great. While
Dougie Hamilton would work fine with Muzzin, Hamilton also wouldn’t be a perfect fit for our team despite being 6’5. We needed a defensively responsible guy who played with a simplistic game. Barrie’s issue wasn’t as much his size as his play style.

 

[meefer]

Problem is that Holl is bad, he's not a top 4 d man. He's a 3rd pairing guy and struggles badly playing against top competition.

I disagree that Holl is "bad". I don't suggest he's a top quality player, but when he and Muzz are out I have some confidence in them. I despair that they are the best we have to offer, moreso that the other two pairs are insufficient. I'll stress, I'm talking about pairs. Rielly is a good player, he's been saddled with substandard partners since his arrival. Dermott, how good would he look with a partner like Gudas? Might part of Travis's lack of development be that he's never been paired with a solid partner? On second thought, were we not excited with his arrival when he was paired with Polak, perhaps his best partner? Regardless, as @93LEAFS says above, 'It's more an issue of ability and play-style...". We need someone to compliment Morgan so that we have 2 pairing we have confidence in, Rielly's pairing hopefully better than Muzzin's. At that point, a 3rd pair that can hold it's head above water is all we can ask for, and I'd suggest that any one of Dermott, Sandin or Liljegren when paired with a proper partner can grow into that role.

 

[Dreakmur]

Outside of Barrie non of our D are particularly small who played in the playoffs. The issue is we don’t really have a RHD who compliments Rielly, or can be used in a heavy lifting shutdown role with Muzzin.

It’s more an issue of ability and play-style than size. Someone like prime Stralman would fit in great. While
Dougie Hamilton would work fine with Muzzin, Hamilton also wouldn’t be a perfect fit for our team despite being 6’5. We needed a defensively responsible guy who played with a simplistic game. Barrie’s issue wasn’t as much his size as his play style.

Size is a lot less important than tenacity. Small guys that battle hard can be effective. Despite their decent size, the leafs defenseman are mostly marshmallows.

 

[justashadowof]

Holl is UFA age making $2M AAV. How good can we possibly expect him to be? Holl's the least of the team's defense problems. He'd nestle in nicely on the 3rd pairing right side in many NHL cities where the GM has a grasp on his cap distribution.