Analyzing Dubas's Performance - III

[Dekes For Days]

Stats don't say hes much better then Ratanen or Aho.

Pretty much all stats that aren't just raw points with no context say he was much better than Rantanen or Aho. He also had one of the best pre-signing seasons for an ELC player in the history of the cap era.

As for Matthews. He does have one of the best shots in recent history but hes not a good 2 way forward , often mailing it in on the defensive zone.

That's not true.

 

[93LEAFS]

As I've said, I'm willing to look at in different ways. The only thing I will not do is the only thing you seem to want to do, which is measure it against unknown future cap information that didn't match projections at the time the contracts were signed. This debate is pretty irrelevant anyway, because even in your method, there's nothing wrong with Matthews' contract.

Well, there is. He's overpaid by about 2 million. The Stamkos contract percentage-wise from 2011 is what he should have got. Given what both accomplished.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Well, there is. He's overpaid by about 2 million. The Stamkos contract percentage-wise from 2011 is what he should have got. Given what both accomplished.

Matthews was better than Stamkos, and he's not overpaid.

 

[DarkKnight]

 

[93LEAFS]

Matthews was better than Stamkos, and he's not overpaid.

Not really. Again, Stamkos back to back 90 point seasons. 1 Rocket and 1 end of season All-star team. He is overpaid. Great player, love his game, but we overpaid for the privilege of having him. Same with Marner.

 

[egd27]

I have a cap % question.

Connor McDavid signed his current contract on July 5th 2017.

So was the first year cap % calculated on

a) The cap of the 2016-17 season that had just ended ($73M)
b) The cap of the 2017-18 season the hadn't started ($75M)
c) A blend of the two since it was the summer
d) Depends on what suits my argument

And a follow up.......if we use the the cap % at the time of signing, why are we allowed to argue that cap % is reduced over time as the cap rises?

 

[DarkKnight]

Matthews was better than Stamkos, and he's not overpaid.

I find it mystifying anyone can argue Matthews isn’t over paid, he signed for three years less than McDavid. Everyone around the league raised their eyebrows from all reports, and yet here people still actually think Dubas did okay. It’s just isn’t reality, no matter how many months you keep saying it. Matthews is going to free agency at 26 freaking years old, his agent got it all. Bonus, term and dollars. Checkmate.

Just accept it.

 

[BertCorbeau]

So a team can't pay a player more than $10 mill AAV and win a cup?

Pretty dumb point there Carlo.

The Leafs typing $40 million up on 4 forwards, reducing cap flexibility when the need to improve the blue line is a smarter point.

 

[DarkKnight]

So a team can't pay a player more than $10 mill AAV and win a cup?

Pretty dumb point there Carlo.

The Leafs typing $40 million up on 4 forwards, reducing cap flexibility when the need to improve the blue line is a smarter point.

I took it to mean balance as opposed to loaded up front, but I hear you.

 

[Dekes For Days]

There aren't many 10m+ players because there aren't many players that are both good enough and have signed recent enough to get 10m+. It really says nothing about the ability to win with high paid players.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Good point. Let's trade them for worse players. That'll turn this ship around.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I have a cap % question.

Connor McDavid signed his current contract on July 5th 2017.

So was the first year cap % calculated on

a) The cap of the 2016-17 season that had just ended ($73M)
b) The cap of the 2017-18 season the hadn't started ($75M)
c) A blend of the two since it was the summer

It would be 75m, since that was known cap information. You could also theoretically estimate what their projection would have been for when the contract started, as long as you're consistent and do it based on known information.

And a follow up.......if we use the the cap % at the time of signing, why are we allowed to argue that cap % is reduced over time as the cap rises?

Signing cap percentage doesn't change. The percentage of the cap they use up changes on a year to year basis with a changing cap.

 

[Cleetus]

There aren't many 10m+ players because there aren't many players that are both good enough and have signed recent enough to get 10m+. It really says nothing about the ability to win with high paid players.

lol the leafs with all that top loaded 10M plus contracts are not playing anymore... thats not good enough, seems the roster is constructed poorly... who's job is that to make it work? this flawed roster did not even make the playoffs...

 

[Superstar]

Or "dubas is ahead of the curve, all the other gms are going to give their rfas huge deals as well!".

As we all have seen, that clearly did not happen.

Maybe Dubas is 100 years ahead of the curve, and hockey players aren't ready to do ballet on ice during the NHL playoffs yet...

 

[Stamkos4life]

So a team can't pay a player more than $10 mill AAV and win a cup?

Pretty dumb point there Carlo.

The Leafs typing $40 million up on 4 forwards, reducing cap flexibility when the need to improve the blue line is a smarter point.

Good point. Let's trade them for worse players. That'll turn this ship around.

The 1st 10+ mil contract started in 2015-16.

Since then, 13 players have made 10+ mil for at least one season.

Those 13 players make up 28 seasons of being paid 10+ mil.

Out of those 28 seasons:
- 13 have missed the playoffs
- 6 lost in the qualifiers
- 6 have 1st round exits
- 3 wins in the qualifiers

Not a single player making 10+ mil has won a 7 game playoff series out of 28 seasons.

Take from that what you will.

 

[mrbagina]

Not currently, no. He's still great, and he used to be the best for many of those rockets, though being the best doesn't guarantee you awards. He got those awards so consistently because he was not only the best, but he also got significant opportunity advantages, and that limited the ways in which potential competitors could pass him in any given year.

lmao

 

[socko]

If Matthews is overpaid, which he probably is, what does that make Marner? I mean there is not a team in the league that considers these guys remotely equal other than a few Leafs fans.

 

[Joey Hoser]

The 1st 10+ mil contract started in 2015-16.

Since then, 13 players have made 10+ mil for at least one season.

Those 13 players make up 28 seasons of being paid 10+ mil.

Out of those 28 seasons:
- 13 have missed the playoffs
- 6 lost in the qualifiers
- 6 have 1st round exits
- 3 wins in the qualifiers

Not a single player making 10+ mil has won a 7 game playoff series out of 28 seasons.

Take from that what you will.

What am I supposed to take from it? That you can't win with the best players in the league?

 

[biotk]

I made the same point when Matthews signed, although I was including players who make exactly 10M, and it has just become worse since:

Chicago was the first team to have a 10M or greater player when in 2015/16 Toews and Kane broke that barrier.

2016 - Chicago made playoffs - lost first round (and remember this team won the cup the year before - but I guess they were over the hill the very next year).
2017 - Chicago made playoffs - swept in first round
2017 - LA did not make the playoffs
2018 - Chicago - did not make the playoffs.
2018 - LA - swept first round
2019 - LA - did not make the playoffs
2019 - Buffalo - did not make the playoffs
2019 - Edmonton - did not make the playoffs
2019 - Chicago - did not make the playoffs
2019 - Montreal - did not make the playoffs
2019 - Toronto - lost in the first round.

That brings us up to 11 teams - 7 missing the playoffs - 4 losing in the first round with a combined record of 6 wins, 16 losses.

2020 - Edmonton - 12th in the league - loses play-in round
2020 - Toronto - tied for 13th in the league - loses play-in round
2020 - Florida - 15th - loses play-in round
2020 - New York Rangers - 19th - swept in play-in round
2020 - Chicago - 23rd - beats Edmonton in play-in, loses first round
2020 - Montreal 24th - wins play-in, down 3-2 in first round
2020 - Buffalo - 25th - does not qualify for play-in
2020 - LA - 28th - does not qualify for play-in
2020 - San Jose - 29th - does not qualify for play-in

That brings it up to 20 teams over 5 seasons - with only 6 making it to the first round with a record of 9 wins, 23 losses so far. 5 losing that series, and the other one being down 3-2 so far.

It is a bad record.

(edit - did not know that Stamkos was posting something similar when I posted mine).

 

[biotk]

What am I supposed to take from it? That you can't win with the best players in the league?

That hockey is a team sport and if your best player takes too much of the cap then you can't create a strong enough supporting cast to win.

It's too bad the analytics folks didn't apply their analytics to how much high salaries drag down teams.

 

[Trapper]

What am I supposed to take from it? That you can't win with the best players in the league?

I would take it as it takes a team to win.
Gretzky never won a Cup without the Oilers but the Oilers Won a Cup without Gretzky.
And in a salary cap world, a handful of players make it very difficult to have a balanced team.
Leafs don’t have the market on good players otherwise they’d win all the individual trophies and the Cup as well. Every decent franchise has a Marner/Nylander/Rielly to whatever capacity.
Crosby/Malkin/McDavid/Draisaitl/Bergeron/Pastrna/Aho/Svechnikov/Point/Stamkos/Kucherov/Tarasenko/Ovi/Backstrom and on and on.
It’s not like we found all the skill for 10 years and too bad for the rest. Add Laf to the Rangers with Panarin, keep going.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The limited 10m+ contract sample is basically all teams outside of their primes. Either aging teams on the downswing after success, or teams building their team up, pre-prime. The 10m+ contracts have little to nothing to do with the lack of success on those teams.

 

[Cleetus]

The limited 10m+ contract sample is basically all teams outside of their primes. Either aging teams on the downswing after success, or teams building their team up, pre-prime. The 10m+ contracts have little to nothing to do with the lack of success on those teams.

what about Dubas signing 3 of them, and not making the playoffs, its hurting this team, and its pretty evident....

 

[wmark]

He was given a 105 point team, a #1 centre and in 1 year managed to take it out of a playoff position That's talent.

 

[Stamkos4life]

What am I supposed to take from it? That you can't win with the best players in the league?

If thats what you took from my post then good for you!

I'd say it shows that having 3 players making over 10 mil is not a very intelligent strategy.