Analyzing Dubas's Performance - III

[Dekes For Days]

P/60 at 5v5 is one measurement.

It is the most accurate measurement for production, and there's clearly a significant gap between him and Stamkos. Raw production undervalues Matthews relative to his peers due to PP TOI/GP, which is not something he can control. People tend to not realize just how dominant Matthews/Marner were for their age, in historical terms.

Last year Tavares had a better P/60 at 5v5 and G/60 at 5v5, why should Matthews have a higher cap-hit than JT?

Tavares is not a comparable. Matthews is compared against other players in his situation, and it would be based off of more than one year anyway. Putting up that kind of production at 19-21 is different than putting up that kind of production in your prime in a career year. Also, Matthews signed halfway through his 3rd year, and I believe at that point, he was higher than Tavares anyway.

 

[sparxx87]

Holl is UFA age making $2M AAV. How good can we possibly expect him to be? Holl's the least of the team's defense problems. He'd nestle in nicely on the 3rd pairing right side in many NHL cities where the GM has a grasp on his cap distribution.

Engvall as well. Two bottom line/pair players with next to no body of work at the NHL level. They have no leverage, so why is Holl getting 2m when most teams sign these players for 900k? Why does Engvall make 1.2m on his extension when other teams sign borderline players like this for 700k?

He extended Trevor Moore for 750k x 2. Freddy Gauthier 675k x 2. Denis Malgin got 750k. Malgin signed with Florida but these are the numbers you expect for marginal players who haven’t solidified an NHL role.

For some reason Dubas decided to be generous, maybe because Engvall and Holl were Marlies? But status quo saves ~ 1.5m on two nothing players at the bottom of your roster for a team trying to penny pinch.


Hard to understand what he’s thinking.

 

[Dekes For Days]

why is Holl getting 2m when most teams sign these players for 900k?

What UFA-age RHD playing top-4 minutes in a shutdown role is getting 900k?

 

[BertCorbeau]

Holl earned that extension through quality minutes as a #5 d-man.

 

[sparxx87]

What UFA-age RHD playing top-4 minutes in a shutdown role is getting 900k?

He plays top 4 minutes on a team with only two top-4 defenders.

Remind me, how many NHL games had his 28 year old self played when he got that extension?

I know you love to blindly defend Dubas’ bonehead decisions, but are you thinking about this from the agents perspective, or the capped out team? The Leafs need to be getting value per dollar on every one of these bottom of the roster contracts but instead, Dubas is tipping generously.

As the agent poll says, Dubas is just a swell guy who everyone wants to sign a deal with.

 

[Bomber0104]

Holl earned that extension through quality minutes as a #5 d-man.

$2 million for a 3rd pairing defenceman is an over-payment and over-budget.

Even moreso for a team with $40 million tied up in 4 forwards.

Holl was exposed pretty badly when Muzzin went down as someone not capable of leading his own pairing.

He's a passenger.

 

[Dekes For Days]

He plays top 4 minutes on a team with only two top-4 defenders.

He played a top-4 role, and played it effectively. Yes, he's the secondary player on that pairing, but that's why he got 2m instead of a lot more.

You didn't answer the question. What UFA-age RHD playing top-4 minutes in a shutdown role is getting 900k?

The Leafs need to be getting value per dollar on every one of these bottom of the roster contracts

He's not at the bottom of the roster.

 

[DarkKnight]

Seems we spend a lot of time rationalizing what players got paid, whether or not an overpayment. Just for context, some teams actually get player signed in underpayments. Strange I know for Leafs fans, wherein nobody signs for a team friendly salary, but they do exist elsewhere.

Holl has been good for us in his role, he’s a bottom pairing on a decent D core. We probably over paid him a little, not much, but that’s the point, it all adds up and for a front office supposedly cap gurus, I’m left flat.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Just for context, some teams actually get player signed in underpayments.

Most of the time, they don't. Most of the time, it's just people overrating players on other teams and underrating our own players. Holl's contract is good.

 

[DarkKnight]

Most of the time, they don't. Most of the time, it's just people overrating players on other teams and underrating our own players. Holl's contract is good.

You keep telling yourself that bruh.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Most of the time, they don't. Most of the time, it's just people overrating players on other teams and underrating our own players. Holl's contract is good.

This is wrong.

 

[Bomber0104]

Most of the time, they don't. Most of the time, it's just people overrating players on other teams and underrating our own players. Holl's contract is good.

 

[Dekes For Days]

This is wrong.

Funny how nobody has provided an example then. Surely there are UFA-age RHD playing top-4 shutdown roles getting 900k everywhere.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Funny how nobody has provided an example then. Surely there are UFA-age RHD playing top-4 shutdown roles getting 900k everywhere.

There are. But you won't listen, so what's the point of someone trying? You'll bang on about it for a dozen pages or so. No one needs that.

 

[Dekes For Days]

There are.

Still waiting for one.

 

[DarkKnight]

When you have a thesis and try to make everything fit that narrative, despite it becoming more absurd with each successive failure, you either double down into an increasingly tortured argument or you update the thesis to reflect new facts at hand.

Such a tedious posture.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Still waiting for one.

As i said, no one needs that.

 

[All Mod Cons]

When you have a thesis and try to make everything fit that narrative, despite it becoming more absurd with each successive failure, you either double down into an increasingly tortured argument or you update the thesis to reflect new facts at hand.

Such a tedious posture.

He'll be fired before long. My only hope is that there's a bit of a trade embargo placed on him. I want a real GM to make the necessary changes to this roster. Kyle can play with 4th liners/bottom pairing dmen, but shouldn't be allowed to make decisions with regards to our real assets. Let the next GM shape those trades.

 

[Dekes For Days]

As i said, no one needs that.

In other words, there isn't one. I asked a simple question in response to an unsupported claim.

 

[All Mod Cons]

In other words, there isn't one. I asked a simple question in response to an unsupported claim.

You won't listen. Pointless.

 

[justashadowof]

I can't believe that I'm indirectly defending Dubas' handling of any contract negotiations... Where exactly do you find these competent 3rd pairing experienced RHD who make considerably less than $2M AAV?

 

[Nineteen67]

Grzelyck and Clifton made a 1.4 and 1 million each.

Dubas has his work cut out this off-season. Whatever he does has to stabilize the D and the roster. No more patch work hoping these KHL can play.

Not only is his job on the line, but he could go down as the GM that wasted the Matthews years, considering next off-season Hyman, Andersen are RFAs and then a year later Reilly.

Just getting back into the playoffs won’t cut it in this market.

 

[Nineteen67]

Most of the time, they don't. Most of the time, it's just people overrating players on other teams because they see them performing well in the playoffs and underrating our own players. Holl's contract is good.

FIFY

 

[Dekes For Days]

Grzelyck and Clifton made a 1.4 and 1 million each.

Clifton had 19 NHL games, played the 8th most TOI/GP on the team, and was an RFA that signed a year ago.
Grzelcyk had 63 NHL games, played the 7th most TOI/GP on the team, and was an RFA that signed two years ago for less term.
These were not comparable players to Holl.

 

[Nineteen67]

Clifton had 19 NHL games, played the 8th most TOI/GP on the team, and was an RFA that signed a year ago.
Grzelcyk had 63 NHL games, played the 7th most TOI/GP on the team, and was an RFA that signed two years ago for less term.
These were not comparable players to Holl.

I wasn’t comparing them to Holl.