Analyzing Dubas's Performance - III

[93LEAFS]

It’s interesting how quickly you moved off the assertion that McDavid and Matthews were statistically similar at the respective time of their signing...

You should probably just drop insinuation that Toronto was signing Matthews because they were thinking they’d get a similar player to McDavid. Nobody thought that in real time and it wasn’t very long ago either.

Not only that, but Matthews contract is a better deal than McDavid's, by a sizable margin. Only way it backfires on him is if the cap regresses (which is possible due to the unforeseen events we are now facing) or he somehow has significant injury issues.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'm a Bruins fan, John Moore is the #8 D man. Clifton and Lauzon have moved past Moore
no question.

Well then that's a pretty horrible cap hit for a #8 defenseman. Either way, it's the #6-8 defensemen you named, with TOI well below the other 5, compared to the #7-8 on the Leafs, and the difference between them isn't very significant.

Clifton and Lauzon are both better than Holl,
Ceci, and Marincin.

Lol.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Every player in the Top 15 Cap Hits was signed for maximum term except for 2.

I'm not sure why you're looking at UFA contracts when we're discussing post-ELC contracts. Take a look at historical post-ELC contracts. 8 year terms are not very common, and they are usually done on rebuilding teams where they trade short term cap space for long term cap space, before the player has broken out.

 

[Stephen]

Not only that, but Matthews contract is a better deal than McDavid's, by a sizable margin. Only way it backfires on him is if the cap regresses (which is possible due to the unforeseen events we are now facing) or he somehow has significant injury issues.

I actually don’t mind the Matthews contract that much. In terms of length, I don’t think he’s going to leave in four years and I think the cap hit was dictated by some contracts that happened to be signed before he was up. I certainly don’t have the same kind of issues I have with it as I do with Tavares and Marner.

But we don’t need to go off the deep end with the revisionist history that the Leafs looked at all his numbers and thought they were getting someone comparable to McDavid at the time of his signing. That’s just not... right.

 

[93LEAFS]

I'm not sure why you're looking at UFA contracts when we're discussing post-ELC contracts. Take a look at historical post-ELC contracts. 8 year terms are not very common, and they are usually done on rebuilding teams where they trade short term cap space for long term cap space, before the player has broken out.

McDavid and Draisaitl hadn't broken out?

How about look at recent history and don't go back almost a decade to Malkin, who by the time he got that deal had won an Art Ross and a Conn Smythe.

The issue is, Matthews got right in between the two obvious comparables Eichel and McDavid, which was fine, but he got it on a 5 year term while they got 8. That contract essentially values Matthews at 4 years (all RFA years) as more valuable than Eichel at 8, which even with the disparity between the players, isn't even close to that level of margin. Matthews got the best RFA deal in recent history. His contract is better than McDavid's, and way better than Eichel's (when you look at how frontloaded Matthews is, plus full lockout protection).

 

[93LEAFS]

I actually don’t mind the Matthews contract that much. In terms of length, I don’t think he’s going to leave in four years and I think the cap hit was dictated by some contracts that happened to be signed before he was up. I certainly don’t have the same kind of issues I have with it as I do with Tavares and Marner.

But we don’t need to go off the deep end with the revisionist history that the Leafs looked at all his numbers and thought they were getting someone comparable to McDavid at the time of his signing. That’s just not... right.

I think the contract is a joke given the comparable we had. I hate the contract, not the player. It seems like clear asset mismanagement. He had two clear comparables for a top-end and a bottom-end, and he topped the top end comparable, and his deal is so much better than Eichel's, you would think they aren't even comparable as players.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It’s interesting how quickly you moved off the assertion that McDavid and Matthews were statistically similar at the respective time of their signing...

I... didn't? What gave you that idea? They were statistically similar at time of their signing. Even in the most basic raw production, which ignores Matthews' relative disadvantage, Matthews matched him in primary point production and surpassed him in goal production. GMs and agents consider more than where they fall on the raw point chart.

You should probably just drop insinuation that Toronto was signing Matthews because they were thinking they’d get a similar player to McDavid.

It's pretty irrelevant whether they thought they were getting a player of McDavid's caliber moving forward. All that matters is that that's what it would cost to keep him, because he had played at that similar extremely high level in his pre-signing period and had earned it.

 

[Stephen]

I think the contract is a joke given the comparable we had. I hate the contract, not the player. It seems like clear asset mismanagement. He had two clear comparables for a top-end and a bottom-end, and he topped the top end comparable, and his deal is so much better than Eichel's, you would think they aren't even comparable as players.

I think Buffalo blew their brains out on Eichel which dragged up Matthews potential ask since Matthews came in and was better on day one and Tavares just sealed the deal. If you could go back and put the genie back in the bottle, Buffalo probably pays Eichel Draisatl money and Tavares’ ask hovers around $10 million.

 

[Stephen]

I... didn't? What gave you that idea? They were statistically similar at time of their signing. Even in the most basic raw production, which ignores Matthews' relative disadvantage, Matthews matched him in primary point production and surpassed him in goal production. GMs and agents consider more than where they fall on the raw point chart.

If they were actually statistically similar you would have been pretty quick in posting the numbers on here. But a guy in the middle of posting a 73 point in 68 games in his third season is not the same as a guy coming off a 100 point season as a sophomore. Furthermore, McDavid signed at the age of 20. And Matthews signed his contract at 21.

 

[Dekes For Days]

McDavid and Draisaitl hadn't broken out?

McDavid had broken out, to some extent. Draisaitl not really. Not anything close to what he is now. Edmonton also had plenty of cap space because they didn't have much else worthwhile on the team.

Malkin, who by the time he got that deal had won an Art Ross and a Conn Smythe.

Malkin did not have a Conn Smythe when he signed.

The issue is, Matthews got right in between the two obvious comparables Eichel and McDavid

Actually Matthews' cap hit percentage is much closer to Eichel's.

That contract essentially values Matthews at 4 years (all RFA years) as more valuable than Eichel at 8, which even with the disparity between the players, isn't even close to that level of margin.

...what? Matthews' contract is 5 years. Matthews was miles past Eichel when they both signed.

 

[93LEAFS]

I think Buffalo blew their brains out on Eichel which dragged up Matthews potential ask since Matthews came in and was better on day one and Tavares just sealed the deal. If you could go back and put the genie back in the bottle, Buffalo probably pays Eichel Draisatl money and Tavares’ ask hovers around $10 million.

The Matthews deal is way worse than Eichel. Simply put, we paid him like it was a 8 year deal and gave him everything a player wants. Compare the lockout-protection and front-loading, Matthews deal is way better than Eichel's even if Matthews cap-hit was 10m a year. I don't think Matthews conceded on a single thing, except maybe the 5th year. Whereas we gave him pretty much everything a player wants (frontloading, NMC, max lock-out protection). I would value Matthews at around 11.5m to 12m at 8 given the recent comparables, maybe equal to McDavid if we are pushing it given 1-year inflation (and even that is stretching it). He got 400k less than that a year but on only 5.

Tavares was always going to be 11m to 12m. He was a the best UFA we'd seen in ages. Sharks put 13m a year on the table. In an open bidding market, that was never going to go down massively. Similar to Panarin's deal.

 

[93LEAFS]

McDavid had broken out, to some extent. Draisaitl not really. Not anything close to what he is now. Edmonton also had plenty of cap space because they didn't have much else worthwhile on the team.

Malkin did not have a Conn Smythe when he signed.

Actually Matthews' cap hit percentage is much closer to Eichel's.

...what? Matthews' contract is 5 years. Matthews was miles past Eichel when they both signed.

My point was, this contract essentially values Matthews as worth more than 10m a year if he signed for only 4 years. Unless you think the 5th year of Matthews deal is worth 18.2m. Fine, Malkin only had a first-team all-star and 2nd place Hart voting finish. While also helping lead his team to a cup finals. Matthews hasn't finished top 10 and doesn't have a end of season all-star team.

Again, it isn't even relevant to compare cap percentage, as the last 3 years of Eichel's deal is likely to be way less than what we have to pay Matthews to retain him after 5. It is intellectually dishonest to compare there cap-hit percentage when one is signed for 8 and the other signed for 5.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If they were actually statistically similar you would have been pretty quick in posting the numbers on here.

...Do you want me to post the numbers? Doesn't ever seem to make much difference, so I didn't bother wasting time.

But a guy in the middle of posting a 73 point in 68 games in his third season is not the same as a guy coming off a 100 point season as a sophomore.

1. You do realize that Matthews was on a 50 goal, 100 point pace in his 3rd season when he signed, right?
2. You do realize that contracts are negotiated off of more than where they fall on the raw single season point chart, right?

Furthermore, McDavid signed at the age of 20. And Matthews signed his contract at 21.

McDavid signed D+2. Matthews signed D+2.5. Age does matter, but Matthews' sample size of that level of production was also bigger.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Again, it isn't even relevant to compare cap percentage, as the last 3 years of Eichel's deal is likely to be way less than what we have to pay Matthews to retain him after 5. It is intellectually dishonest to compare there cap-hit percentage when one is signed for 8 and the other signed for 5.

Cap hit percentage is the only real way to compare contracts. The cap changes. Of course we have to consider the term, but your comment was about it being in the middle on a 5 year term, when that's not true. It's much closer to Eichel's than McDavid's, even though he was much closer to McDavid as a player. This is to account for the term difference.

 

[93LEAFS]

Cap hit percentage is the only real way to compare contracts. The cap changes. Of course we have to consider the term, but your comment was about it being in the middle on a 5 year term, when that's not true. It's much closer to Eichel's than McDavid's, even though he was much closer to McDavid as a player. This is to account for the term difference.

Its closer to McDavid and he's closer to Eichel as a player than he is to McDavid.

Cap hit-percentage isn't the only real way to compare contracts. People do recognize nuance.

The negoiation of Matthews and Marner's contracts was butchered. You can love the players but realize both of these were terribly handled. There is very little justification for the deal Matthews got. It essentially valued Matthews as worth a higher cap-hit than Eichel over 4 years, and a higher cap-hit than McDavid over 8.

Here is how they compare to percentage of Cap when their contracts kicked in. So, even on cap-hit percentage, it is closer to McDavid than Eichel's.

Eichel: 12.6%
Matthews: 14.2%
McDavid: 15.7%

The only justification I've heard that makes any sense for the Matthews contract is the fear of a crazy offer-sheet from the Coyotes, but even then I'd be willing to challenge one of the brokest teams in the NHL's bluff.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Its closer to McDavid

McDavid got 16.67%, after he was negotiated to 17.67%. Matthews got 14.63%. Eichel got 13.33%. Matthews in amount was closer to Eichel.

and he's closer to Eichel as a player than he is to McDavid.

Right now? Yeah, probably. Then? No, not at all.

Cap hit-percentage isn't the only real way to compare contracts.

It is. You can't compare absolute values signed under different caps.

 

[93LEAFS]

McDavid got 16.67%, after he was negotiated to 17.67%. Matthews got 14.63%. Eichel got 13.33%. Matthews in amount was closer to Eichel.

Right now? Yeah, probably. Then? No, not at all.

It is. You can't compare absolute values signed under different caps.

Your numbers are wrong. Look at the numbers when it comes in for the first year of the contract taking effect. Capfriendly uses the numbers of the date its signed, not of the cap in the next year when the contract takes effect.

If you are saying you can't compare value over different caps, then by the same measure you can't compare cap-hit percentage over different terms.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Your numbers are wrong. Look at the numbers when it comes in for the first year of the cap.

My numbers aren't wrong. Those are their signing cap hit percentages. In fact, Matthews was the only one of the three negotiated under an official cap projection for the following year.

If you are saying you can't compare value over different caps, then by the same measure you can't compare cap-hit percentage over different terms.

I never said we ignore term. You were speaking on the amount they got, outside of their term. When term is considered, his contract is closer to McDavid's, as it should be.

 

[93LEAFS]

My numbers aren't wrong. Those are their signing cap hit percentages. In fact, Matthews was the only one of the three negotiated under an official cap projection for the following year.

I never said we ignore term. You were speaking on the amount they got, outside of their term. When term is considered, his contract is closer to McDavid's, as it should be.

Do the actual math. Here are the numbers for the first year of the contracts percentage wise. Don't just blindly use CapFriendly's numbers, which uses a flawed system.

Eichel: 12.6% (10/79.5)
Matthews: 14.2% (11.6/81.5)
McDavid: 15.7% (12.5/79.5)

It is not closer to McDavid when you factor in term, it is better. And, there is no real argument for Matthews getting an equal or better deal than McDavid. McDavid had Hart Trophy win and an Art Ross. Matthews had an 11th place finish.

 

[supermann_98]

Came on here to vent as I'm sick to my stomach watching Point scoring clutch goals in OT, Aho dominate whenever he touches the puck, and Pastrnak thoroughly outproduce Nylander in every facet of hockey ... and our guys get paid more.

I guess the fact our guys probably play 15-20 more rounds of golf per year while those other guys are playing in the playoffs should justify why Dubas felt the need to pay them more.

Now Kadri keeps scoring too, seriously I hate our GM on everything except for his draft selections. The pompous arrogance makes me sick

 

[egd27]

I'm not sure why you're looking at UFA contracts when we're discussing post-ELC contracts. Take a look at historical post-ELC contracts. 8 year terms are not very common, and they are usually done on rebuilding teams where they trade short term cap space for long term cap space, before the player has broken out.

Well I was looking at "that level of player" as you indicated in your post.

So i would need to look at historical post-ELC contracts, done on rebuilding teams, before the player has broken out.....well I imagine that would narrow the field significantly.

I knew you could put some bs spin on it.......well done !

 

[saffronleaf]

Kadri keeps pilin' 'em up

 

[Dekes For Days]

Do the actual math. Here are the numbers for the first year of the contracts percentage wise.

Their 1st year contract percentage is irrelevant. They did not know the cap was going to jump up 4.5m the next year when they signed.

It is not closer to McDavid when you factor in term, it is better.

No, McDavid's is the equivalent of about 2m more for 3 more years. It's comparable if anything, just like their level of production.

 

[saffronleaf]

If Kadri wins the CS would that affect your analysis of Dubas' performance?

 

[Scruffers]

Came on here to vent as I'm sick to my stomach watching Point scoring clutch goals in OT, Aho dominate whenever he touches the puck, and Pastrnak thoroughly outproduce Nylander in every facet of hockey ... and our guys get paid more.

I guess the fact our guys probably play 15-20 more rounds of golf per year while those other guys are playing in the playoffs should justify why Dubas felt the need to pay them more.

Now Kadri keeps scoring too, seriously I hate our GM on everything except for his draft selections. The pompous arrogance makes me sick

I hear you man. It's real frustrating.

Even after we finally managed to land some top draft picks and draft great players with them, it feels like we still found a way to squander our potential by mismanaging the cap and pissing away valuable assets.

Every goal that players like Rantanen, Aho, Point, and Kadri score feels like a punch to the gut.