Analyzing Dubas's Performance - III

[Stephen]

There isn't enough cap to sign multiple players of that quality for 8 years. McDavid signed for the current equivalent of 13.6m, and the Oilers had actually negotiated and agreed to the equivalent of 14.4m. And the truth that some tend to not want to accept is that Matthews was actually pretty close to McDavid in their respective pre-signing periods. Draisaitl was closest to Nylander as a player when he signed.

One flaw in this whimsical interpretation of reality is you’re ignoring context.

Even if we ignore production at the time of the signings (McDavid signed after his second year after putting up 100+points in the off-season, Matthews signing in season en route to a 73 point year with games lost to injury), they also signed their contracts 19 months apart in 2017 and 2019. McDavid also signed 2 years into his career and Matthews was completing his 3rd, and everyone was aware of what McDavid was doing at his contract price point. So really there was no comparison between a guy in the midst of putting up 3 100 point seasons and our guy.

 

[Stephen]

You think you would get Pesce+ for Kadri, Marleau, and a 2nd?? This is a classic example of overestimating what Kadri's value actually was. Kadri was coming off a 44 point season (49 point pace), despite being on the #1 PP unit, and was showing signs of decline, despite going up against weaker competition. He had significant suspension history, and had just cost his team in the playoffs, again. His contract was good, but it wasn't that good, and Pesce's is better. Marleau was 6.25m of wasted cap space, and almost 4 million in wasted cash, out the window. He had massive negative value. That's not realistic.

Well, we got a very high end RHD in Barrie and Kerfoot for Kadri. Stands to reason we could have at least discussed the idea of building Kadri into a legitimate hockey trade with Carolina, while downgrading the Marleau disposal fee by one round. They did go out and acquire Trochek later in the season so you know they wanted that type of player.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Seems like the bar is reset every 20 minutes or so.

Indeed. This time the bar went up so high, I can barely see the damn thing any more.

Yes, because awards only go to one individual, and there's often little consideration for anything other than raw, basic numbers in award voting/criteria. Often times, it's the individual within a certain tier that got the most opportunity. Getting yourself in that tier is one thing. That's on the abilities and skill of the player. However, getting pumped with TOI and having his competitors run into injuries was something that helped push him to the top of the tier that year in certain raw metrics, resulting in awards, instead of just a great season.

If, for example, Crosby played the full season and McDavid missed a few games, it wouldn't make him any less of a player. You don't suddenly become a better player because you got a shiny trophy.

That's interesting, most years I find that the guy who wins the Hart has a very solid case for being the best player in the NHL that season but what do I know, I never thought much about the "opportunity factor".

Maybe you should petition the NHL for a new award for the best "opportunity deprived player". What do you think would be an appropriate name for it, the Matthews award? The Dekes trophy?

Please do go on, I was already in a good mood what with both the Bucks and the Lakers losing but it's been some time since I laughed out loud reading posts here.

 

[Mess]

Lou made robidas and lupul disappear. What makes you think he didn’t have a plan to banish marleau?

Not in a million trillion years did Lou Lam's plan ever factor in the possibility of 3 X $11 mil players on the horizon.

In fact that is something no GM would likely think is wise in a cap world and its going to be a long while before we see another team get themselves into this situation.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Mirtle: 2019-20 starts with a new captain, new faces, a new style of play – and more soup – for the Maple Leafs

According to Mirtle...Dubas and Babs wanted Tavares, Shanahan wanted Matthews.

Again not sure how accurate his sources are.

Good article I can only go off what Brian told me when he was tutoring my kid in math which is also a secondary brotherly source. But one thing I can tell you about Shanny was he was one of those kids who could take very differing stances on things than you would expect. I mean he often said one thing and did another. Not in a bad way as he was always team first and loads of character but he was very unpredictable. Shanny we need a guy like you up front and a couple vet defenders who think D first. and likely a new goalie who doesn't sh*t bricks when it counts. Get er done man. We need a winner back here. This nonsense going out before things even get started has to stop. We need some men with more character on this team. Fly bye skater boys never win. You know that. You can't have too many on 1 team and succeed. We got too many.

 

[ACC1224]

Good article I can only go off what Brian told me when he was tutoring my kid in math which is also a secondary brotherly source. But one thing I can tell you about Shanny was he was one of those kids who could take very differing stances on things than you would expect. I mean he often said one thing and did another. Not in a bad way as he was always team first and loads of character but he was very unpredictable. Shanny we need a guy like you up front and a couple vet defenders who think D first. and likely a new goalie who doesn't sh*t bricks when it counts. Get er done man. We need a winner back here. This nonsense going out before things even get started has to stop. We need some men with more character on this team. Fly bye skater boys never win. You know that. You can't have too many on 1 team and succeed. We got too many.

So many that I've often wondered if they are coached to do this?

 

[EGL22]

Willy may out-perform his contract but year 1 was definitely a negative.

Year 2 was much better so hopefully he can build off this going forward.

Year 2 was better but I think if the top 6 stay the same but Willy ends up not on Matthews wing he shows he is a 25 g 60 pt guy.
If Tavares ends up with Willy no 40+ and PPG and expect 30/70
for Captain Johnny.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Year 2 was better but I think if the top 6 stay the same but Willy ends up not on Matthews wing he shows he is a 25 g 60 pt guy.
If Tavares ends up with Willy no 40+ and PPG and expect 30/70
for Captain Johnny.

People likely will freak out here but it is very possible Willy moves to centre on some nights and JT is a winger sometimes next season. Willy often was our best guy many nights this past season. He still needs to get heavier on puck against teams like CBJ Canes and Bruins because it is only way through those type of teams. You gotta withstand getting punched in da mouth a few times and fight through it harder. He can't go away in those type of games. Mitch can't do it he is just not physically built for it.

 

[ToneDog]

People likely will freak out here but it is very possible Willy moves to centre on some nights and JT is a winger sometimes next season. Willy often was our best guy many nights this past season. He still needs to get heavier on puck against teams like CBJ Canes and Bruins because it is only way through those type of teams. You gotta withstand getting punched in da mouth a few times and fight through it harder. He can't go away in those type of games. Mitch can't do it he is just not physically built for it.

In which case you need to find them a RWer. Hyman with AJ or Robertson next to AM?? IMO odds are Willie is moved.

 

[EGL22]

People likely will freak out here but it is very possible Willy moves to centre on some nights and JT is a winger sometimes next season. Willy often was our best guy many nights this past season. He still needs to get heavier on puck against teams like CBJ Canes and Bruins because it is only way through those type of teams. You gotta withstand getting punched in da mouth a few times and fight through it harder. He can't go away in those type of games. Mitch can't do it he is just not physically built for it.

You will never see Willy play gritty,it is not his nature.
He will not take a hit to make a pass.
Good stick checker but will not hit to get the puck.
He zooms down the wing but there is no worry he will cut to the net,he will hit the brakes or scoot around behind the net.
On the PP he will not be right in front screening but stands off to the side and usually his body is outside the goalposts.
This is a guy totally allergic to bruises.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

You will never see Willy play gritty,it is not his nature.
He will not take a hit to make a pass.
Good stick checker but will not hit to get the puck.
He zooms down the wing but there is no worry he will cut to the net,he will hit the brakes or scoot around behind the net.
On the PP he will not be right in front screening but stands off to the side and usually his body is outside the goalposts.
This is a guy totally allergic to bruises.

If that is his character then he should be moved as no point in continuing to hope he can change ... we can't continue with Willy being amazing against Habs and sh*t da bed against da canes when they decide to play hard

 

[Scruffers]

There isn't enough cap to sign multiple players of that quality for 8 years. McDavid signed for the current equivalent of 13.6m, and the Oilers had actually negotiated and agreed to the equivalent of 14.4m. And the truth that some tend to not want to accept is that Matthews was actually pretty close to McDavid in their respective pre-signing periods. Draisaitl was closest to Nylander as a player when he signed.

We didn't need to sign multiple players to 8 years. We only needed to sign Matthews for 8 years, because he's our franchise player. Dubas lost out on term.

Where did the idea that Bozak is defensively responsible come from? Because when he was in Toronto, he was constantly blasted for being atrocious defensively, especially towards the end of his contract. He also wasn't killing penalties in Toronto.

Bozak has shifted to a more defensive role in St. Louis. For example, his even strength dZS% is up considerably compared to his time in Toronto, and he's currently killing penalties for them (something he would excel at here because we lack someone who can consistently win faceoffs on the PK).

 

[Morbo]

Not in a million trillion years did Lou Lam's plan ever factor in the possibility of 3 X $11 mil players on the horizon.

In fact that is something no GM would likely think is wise in a cap world and its going to be a long while before we see another team get themselves into this situation.

uh huh.

problem is, he absolutely knew the big 3 were coming up for new deals and still gave Marleau the 3rd year.

It's indefensible.

how much did Lou figure they'd sign for, five bucks??

the glossing over and excuses made for the old man's blunders never end around here, and he's been gone 2 years.

 

[Scruffers]

uh huh.

problem is, he absolutely knew the big 3 were coming up for new deals and still gave Marleau the 3rd year.

It's indefensible.

how much did Lou figure they'd sign for, five bucks??

the glossing over and excuses made for the old man's blunders never end around here, and he's been gone 2 years.

I don't understand why people are so fixated on Marleau's 3rd year.

We were in prime position to sit in his contract for the last year without giving up any assets to move the contract for cap space. We could have afforded Marner's current outrageous contract, and even afforded a more significant extension for Matthews if we wanted to.

Marleau's 3rd year only became a problem when Dubas took over and pushed us up against the cap.

 

[Bomber0104]

uh huh.

problem is, he absolutely knew the big 3 were coming up for new deals and still gave Marleau the 3rd year.

It's indefensible.

how much did Lou figure they'd sign for, five bucks??

the glossing over and excuses made for the old man's blunders never end around here, and he's been gone 2 years.

Signing Tavares to an $11 million contracts, followed by two more $11 million contracts made the Marleau deal unaffordable and a problem cap-wise.

Try getting the actual timeline of events right before you come in here throwing insults around to other people.

 

[ACC1224]

uh huh.

problem is, he absolutely knew the big 3 were coming up for new deals and still gave Marleau the 3rd year.

It's indefensible.

how much did Lou figure they'd sign for, five bucks??

the glossing over and excuses made for the old man's blunders never end around here, and he's been gone 2 years.

I imagine the thinking was the contracts would come in somewhere lower than 10+ millions and greater than '5 bucks'.
Agreed, Lou Lam shouldn't be discussed any longer, let Dubas stand on his own merit and stop the excuses.

 

[egd27]

Maybe you should petition the NHL for a new award for the best "opportunity deprived player". What do you think would be an appropriate name for it, the Matthews award? The Dekes trophy?

While he's at it, maybe an xCup for the team that "shoulda" won were it not for bad luck?

 

[Morbo]

I imagine the thinking was the contracts would come in somewhere lower than 10+ millions and greater than '5 bucks'.
Agreed, Lou Lam shouldn't be discussed any longer, let Dubas stand on his own merit and stop the excuses.

absolutely. but the trend around here lately is to romanticize Lou's time around here. It's inaccurate and unecessary.

 

[Morbo]

why did we waste money on Patrick Marleau anyway?

what a total blunder that was.

 

[ACC1224]

absolutely. but the trend around here lately is to romanticize Lou's time around here. It's inaccurate and unecessary.

I imagine it's done to counter act the blind Dubas love some have shown.
This can be a strange place at times.
What we do know is this is no longer a playoff team, cap is maxed out and they don't have a 1st in a strong draft with the chance of not having a 2nd either.
That's not on Lou.

 

[egd27]

uh huh.

problem is, he absolutely knew the big 3 were coming up for new deals and still gave Marleau the 3rd year.

It's indefensible.

how much did Lou figure they'd sign for, five bucks??

the glossing over and excuses made for the old man's blunders never end around here, and he's been gone 2 years.

Still refusing to take the unexpected $11M paid to JT as a factor I see.

 

[All Mod Cons]

uh huh.

problem is, he absolutely knew the big 3 were coming up for new deals and still gave Marleau the 3rd year.

It's indefensible.

how much did Lou figure they'd sign for, five bucks??

the glossing over and excuses made for the old man's blunders never end around here, and he's been gone 2 years.

He probably figured he'd have 11 million more and no Tavares.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Even if we ignore production at the time of the signings (McDavid signed after his second year after putting up 100+points in the off-season, Matthews signing in season en route to a 73 point year with games lost to injury), they also signed their contracts 19 months apart in 2017 and 2019. McDavid also signed 2 years into his career and Matthews was completing his 3rd, and everyone was aware of what McDavid was doing at his contract price point. So really there was no comparison between a guy in the midst of putting up 3 100 point seasons and our guy.

That's not a very accurate representation of their production levels at time of signing. Their production at time of signing was not actually that different. McDavid was better in point production, Matthews was better in primary point production and goal production. What McDavid did after he signed was irrelevant, and even though Matthews hasn't taken the same kind of step yet as McDavid after, I think you'd be surprised what kind of raw production we'd be seeing from Matthews with the same TOI.

Well, we got a very high end RHD in Barrie and Kerfoot for Kadri.

Hey, that sounds like a pretty good return, don't you think?

That still doesn't mean that you're going to get a core piece from Carolina; a top 4 RHD signed for 5 more years at 4m. There were rumours that he would have been available for Nylander on a long-term deal through his prime, and you think they not only would trade him for Kadri on the decline and half the term, and not only trade him for Kadri on the decline and half the term and a downgrade on the return for taking on 6.25m of dead cap and 4m of dead salary, but also add?

 

[Stephen]

uh huh.

problem is, he absolutely knew the big 3 were coming up for new deals and still gave Marleau the 3rd year.

It's indefensible.

how much did Lou figure they'd sign for, five bucks??

the glossing over and excuses made for the old man's blunders never end around here, and he's been gone 2 years.

Lou hasn’t been a good cap manager for the whole duration of the salary cap era.

If you look at the New York Islanders there’s a ridiculous amount of bloat paid out to guys like Bailey, Eberle, Varlamov, Pageau, Komarov, not to mention contracts he inherited like Ladd, Boychuk, Clutterbuck on the books. The Islanders are competitive now but I don’t know what their future growth potential is. And this is before securing Barzal to any kind of extension and factoring in Beauvillier’s next contract after his bridge deal expires at the end of 2021.

Not our problem to be sure, but I think at 75 or whatever Lou isn’t thinking 8 year plan, which is the thinking that brought us Year 3 of Marleau.

 

[Bomber0104]

While he's at it, maybe an xCup for the team that "shoulda" won were it not for bad luck?

McDavid's Oilers would have beat Matthews' Leafs there too