Analyzing Dubas's Performance - III

[Mickey Marner]

I'm conflicted about JVR, because while his trade value would have been insane considering his 36-goal pace, it also would likely have hurt our chances in the 2018 playoffs. From that perspective, I can understand why management didn't want to trade him. However, I think we could have definitely landed a quality top-4 defenseman in a straight up trade for him considering that many teams would pay a premium for a 30+ goal winger on a low cap hit at the trade deadline. I'm leaning towards this being a case of bad asset management, but I can understand the argument against trading him.

Gardiner should have been traded before the 2019 season because he had just set a career high in points and we already had Dermott coming up + Sandin in the system. If we pull the trigger on the Muzzin deal earlier, maybe even during that offseason, our LD is improved much sooner. Bad asset management here too.

Bozak shouldn't have been allowed to walk, because he's exactly the kind of player we need right now.

Johnsson is another player we should have traded. He and Kapanen both put up 20 goal, 40+ point seasons. Perfect time to trade him was after 2018-19.

Definitely feels like management (moreso Dubas) seems unwilling to part with players they clearly should have traded. Imagine what this team would look like if we got some assets for JVR, Gardiner, and Johnsson, and if we didn't spend so many draft picks trying to address immediate needs.

I think everyone can accept all of the moves (or lack thereof) in isolation, that's what makes them insidious. But when we examine the collective, we can see the damage they've caused.

It's unacceptable that our best RD signed next year is Justin Holl (with 81 career GP at age 28) given all the assets they had to work with. Martin Marincin is our second-longest tenured defenseman and our prospect pool is filled with guys that can't beat him for a roster spot. It's maddening that management has failed to upgrade the defense.

Philly added Niskanen and Provorov took the next step, Hughes plays with Tanev, Makar with Cole. The Rangers added Trouba and Fox in the same off-season. Vegas built a better defense out of everyone's 4th or 5th best defenseman. Now we're rumoured to be adding Joe Thornton, but what about a veteran defenseman to teach the kids how to play?

I'm not normally an I could do your job better type of guy, but if you hand me the keys for opening night 2016-17, I'd have given us a better RD that ours, that's for sure.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

They better win this year then because they have a lot of guys about to pass their primes on long-term deals.

And Barzal and Pulock coming off their ELCs looking to get paid.

 

[Menzinger]

Then compound that with failing to trade JVR, Gardiner, Bozak, Barrie etc. to re-stock the cupboards. And we're left with a team we can't afford and no assets to supplement the losses.

The squandering assets starts from the top with Shanny throwing away draft pick compensation for Babcock and Lamoriello, only to replace them with their polar opposites. Just a brutally incompetent executive.

Eh I think it's hard to blame Shanny for that particular issue -the pick compensation rule was dumb and it was bad luck the team was looking for front office guys while it was still in place.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

But in this analogy, your dog wasn’t biting your children, it was biting the neighbours children for bulling your children.

No, in this analogy the children are the Leaf fans.

 

[likecheese]

I think everyone can accept all of the moves (or lack thereof) in isolation, that's what makes them insidious. But when we examine the collective, we can see the damage they've caused.

It's unacceptable that our best RD signed next year is Justin Holl (with 81 career GP at age 28) given all the assets they had to work with. Martin Marincin is our second-longest tenured defenseman and our prospect pool is filled with guys that can't beat him for a roster spot. It's maddening that management has failed to upgrade the defense.

Philly added Niskanen and Provorov took the next step, Hughes plays with Tanev, Makar with Cole. The Rangers added Trouba and Fox in the same off-season. Vegas built a better defense out of everyone's 4th or 5th best defenseman. Now we're rumoured to be adding Joe Thornton, but what about a veteran defenseman to teach the kids how to play?

I'm not normally an I could do your job better type of guy, but if you hand me the keys for opening night 2016-17, I'd have given us a better RD that ours, that's for sure.

The moves weren't in isolation as much as all these moves pointed to a "win-now" team, all-in.
You don't trade away one of your prime assets on a good contract for one year of Tyson freaking Barrie for future benefit. All these squandered draft picks and own-rentals were done with an eye to building a cup contender now. That's also why Dubas was so desperate to sign Marner before camp at any price. In Dubas' mind, having the Big 4 was enough to make up for the questions on defense (and the lack of toughness). Dubas really thought this team was good enough to contend for the big one.
He really should be fired after this debacle.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

So... you're trying to use these trades as a mark against Dubas because your issue is something else entirely that's already been addressed...?

Also, it wasn't a year and a half. Sparks through the beginning of February was 7-3-1, with a 0.909 SV%. He dropped off in the last month and a half, but Hutchinson was serviceable in 2018-2019 as well; putting up a 0.914 SV% with us. I can understand people wanting something done in that offseason, but that's half of a year, and there weren't many possible options within our price range.

Because Muzzin got injured... The hate for Marincin is weird. What do people expect out of a #7-8 defenseman?

Kyle Clifton, John Moore or Lauzon maybe?

 

[Trapper]

Then compound that with failing to trade JVR, Gardiner, Bozak, Barrie etc. to re-stock the cupboards. And we're left with a team we can't afford and no assets to supplement the losses.

The squandering assets starts from the top with Shanny throwing away draft pick compensation for Babcock and Lamoriello, only to replace them with their polar opposites. Just a brutally incompetent executive.

Remember all those threads we had on asset management. People don’t care at the time, but we said it always comes back to haunt you.

Im going to give you a scenario, you tell me who the GM is and what year it is.

1. Have skill at the top
2. Lack of quality depth to support
3. Poor D
3. Goaltending issues
4. No 1st round pick 2 years in a row
5. Not hard enough to play against with lack of forecheck and really prefer to be a rush team.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Remember all those threads we had on asset management. People don’t care at the time, but we said it always comes back to haunt you.

Im going to give you a scenario, you tell me who the GM is and what year it is.

1. Have skill at the top
2. Lack of quality depth to support
3. Poor D
3. Goaltending issues
4. No 1st round pick 2 years in a row
5. Not hard enough to play against with lack of forecheck and really prefer to be a rush team.

hmmm we are in a Dubas thread, 500 on Dubas Trapper

 

[Trapper]

hmmm we are in a Dubas thread, 500 on Dubas Trapper

Love Red Dead Redemption BTW.
Here’s hoping for some by the Leafs.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think it would be very hard for Matthews to out-perform his deal too. Especially when the term is factored in. Only Willy is in a position to do it of the big 4 forwards.

Agreed. I was thinking about it and in the end decided to give Dubas a pass on Matthews because he's the franchise. That's overstating it maybe but to a certain extent, it's true too so with a guy like that, I can't complain too much when they give him a blank check.

 

[Trapper]

Agreed. I was thinking about it and in the end decided to give Dubas a pass on Matthews because he's the franchise. That's overstating it maybe but to a certain extent, it's true too so with a guy like that, I can't complain too much when they give him a blank check.

My issue with the Matthews contract is mostly the term. You’ve walked him to UFA in 4 more years. Then people say patience but, you know there is a 50/50 he goes to the USA. Especially if we aren’t making progress.

You can’t pay everyone for future potential.
Matthews yes, you don’t find a big, strong, 50 goal scoring center.
Tavares would have gotten his contract just about anywhere and isn’t being paid for potential.

It is also the job of the GM to keep talent but negotiate a reasonable cost. You still have a team to consider. You just don’t back up the money truck and in a cap world you can’t ignore balance.
We currently sit at 54 million forward, 15 million D. Of the 54 mil forward, 4 equal 40 mil. Is anyone really wondering about lack of depth?

 

[Dekes For Days]

I wonder if a Kadri, Marleau dump and a 2nd for Pesce + could have been worked out as an alternative cure all solution.

You think you would get Pesce+ for Kadri, Marleau, and a 2nd?? This is a classic example of overestimating what Kadri's value actually was. Kadri was coming off a 44 point season (49 point pace), despite being on the #1 PP unit, and was showing signs of decline, despite going up against weaker competition. He had significant suspension history, and had just cost his team in the playoffs, again. His contract was good, but it wasn't that good, and Pesce's is better. Marleau was 6.25m of wasted cap space, and almost 4 million in wasted cash, out the window. He had massive negative value. That's not realistic.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I will never understand not signing your franchise player to max term. For all the (justified) criticism directed at the Oilers, at least they locked up McDavid and Draisaitl for 8 years.

There isn't enough cap to sign multiple players of that quality for 8 years. McDavid signed for the current equivalent of 13.6m, and the Oilers had actually negotiated and agreed to the equivalent of 14.4m. And the truth that some tend to not want to accept is that Matthews was actually pretty close to McDavid in their respective pre-signing periods. Draisaitl was closest to Nylander as a player when he signed.

defensively responsible center that can win faceoffs and kill penalties in Bozak

Where did the idea that Bozak is defensively responsible come from? Because when he was in Toronto, he was constantly blasted for being atrocious defensively, especially towards the end of his contract. He also wasn't killing penalties in Toronto.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Kyle Clifton, John Moore or Lauzon maybe?

I assume you mean Connor Clifton, and you're talking about Boston's guys? Well, first off, John Moore is their #6, not an extra, and he makes 2.75m (and will for 3 more years after this one).

Clifton and Lauzon aren't all that different from what we have as depth.

 

[Gary Nylund]

There isn't enough cap to sign multiple players of that quality for 8 years. McDavid signed for the current equivalent of 13.6m, and the Oilers had actually negotiated and agreed to the equivalent of 14.4m. And the truth that some tend to not want to accept is that Matthews was actually pretty close to McDavid in their respective pre-signing periods. Draisaitl was closest to Nylander as a player when he signed.

Holy crap, those homer glasses are on tighter than I could ever have imagined.

In addition to winning the Ted Lindsay award, in his pre-signing period, McDavid became one of the youngest players ever to win the Hart and also one of the youngest ever to win the Art Ross.

Don't be absurd.

 

[4thline]

@sparxx87 I don't think the Pageau acquisition was bad in a vacuum. But I think giving him a big long term deal before locking up Barzal/Pulock is a big pointer as to why Lou is no longer here. Made a move that makes the team better in the short run, but spent himself into a corner with no priority to lock up his true core. If we look back to his NJ days to see what to expect it's not a long term low value extension, it's squeezing them (by necessity) in to a series of short term bridges until they leave via UFA, then overpaying a far more mediocre player to backfill. I think that was his plan with our guys. "No player is bigger than the team, this is the team, it has xx (well below market for anything but a bridge) for you, sign it"

Looking strictly at the decision to switch, and three motivators

Dubas is a fantastic conman / Shanny is an idiot

Shanahan believes Dubas was already all-around better as a GM in terms of component skills

Shanahan decided that adhering to the long term vision (building around AM/MM) trumped GM "skills", that in the long run strategy was more important than tactics.

I strongly believe that number 3 was a big (the biggest) part of it, and that Shanahan was less betting on Dubas vs. Lamioriello than he was betting on himself (and by extension AM/MM) vs. Lamioriello.

 

[Dekes For Days]

In addition to winning the Ted Lindsay award, in his pre-signing period, McDavid became one of the youngest players ever to win the Hart and also one of the youngest ever to win the Art Ross.

Awards say just as much about opportunity as they do the actual player. McDavid had a great year in 2016-2017, but he also benefited from significant ES and PP TOI, which Matthews didn't get for some ridiculous reason, and McDavid was lucky that he played all 82 games that year while his closest competitors faced injury issues.

Their level of production pre-signing, both individually and relative to their linemates, wasn't as far off as people like to think. McDavid was also more reliant on secondary assists in his point production. McDavid was a better point producer, while Matthews was a better primary point producer and goal scorer. Both were among the best pre-signing ELC players in the entire cap era.

 

[Trapper]

You can debate it however you want. You give your franchise center 8 years (ridiculous not to) and don’t blow your wad on wingers until you have a team that is built to support that through the playoffs. Add the scoring winger last when you have a foundation for success. Not paying half a cap and hoping for it.

 

[All Mod Cons]

@sparxx87 I don't think the Pageau acquisition was bad in a vacuum. But I think giving him a big long term deal before locking up Barzal/Pulock is a big pointer as to why Lou is no longer here. Made a move that makes the team better in the short run, but spent himself into a corner with no priority to lock up his true core. If we look back to his NJ days to see what to expect it's not a long term low value extension, it's squeezing them (by necessity) in to a series of short term bridges until they leave via UFA, then overpaying a far more mediocre player to backfill. I think that was his plan with our guys. "No player is bigger than the team, this is the team, it has xx (well below market for anything but a bridge) for you, sign it"

Looking strictly at the decision to switch, and three motivators

Dubas is a fantastic conman / Shanny is an idiot

Shanahan believes Dubas was already all-around better as a GM in terms of component skills

Shanahan decided that adhering to the long term vision (building around AM/MM) trumped GM "skills", that in the long run strategy was more important than tactics.

I strongly believe that number 3 was a big (the biggest) part of it, and that Shanahan was less betting on Dubas vs. Lamioriello than he was betting on himself (and by extension AM/MM) vs. Lamioriello.

I think 1 probably leaks into 3 because he's certainly not acted with long term in mind (for the most part), with signing Tavares, trading for impending UFAs, trading away multiple 1st round picks and not allowing any room for moves should something arrive. We're at a point where if we need a decent defenseman, 1 of the big 4 are going the other way.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Awards say just as much about opportunity as they do the actual player. McDavid had a great year in 2016-2017, but he also benefited from significant ES and PP TOI, which Matthews didn't get for some ridiculous reason, and McDavid was lucky that he played all 82 games that year while his closest competitors faced injury issues.

Their level of production pre-signing, both individually and relative to their linemates, wasn't as far off as people like to think. McDavid was also more reliant on secondary assists in his point production. McDavid was a better point producer, while Matthews was a better primary point producer and goal scorer. Both were among the best pre-signing ELC players in the entire cap era.

Awards say just as much about opportunity as they do the actual player? Wow!! (MOD).

The Hart says quite a bit about the player and McDavid won the Hart in a landslide. Your homerism and Dubas worship is beyond pathetic.

Opportunity indeed!

 

[Stamkos4life]

I think it would be very hard for Matthews to out-perform his deal too. Especially when the term is factored in. Only Willy is in a position to do it of the big 4 forwards.

Willy may out-perform his contract but year 1 was definitely a negative.

Year 2 was much better so hopefully he can build off this going forward.

 

[ACC1224]

Awards say just as much about opportunity as they do the actual player? Wow!! That has to be one of the dumbest things I've ever read here and that is saying quite a mouthful.

The Hart says quite a bit about the player and McDavid won the Hart in a landslide. Your homerism and Dubas worship is beyond pathetic.

Opportunity indeed!

Seems like the bar is reset every 20 minutes or so.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Awards say just as much about opportunity as they do the actual player. McDavid had a great year in 2016-2017, but he also benefited from significant ES and PP TOI, which Matthews didn't get for some ridiculous reason, and McDavid was lucky that he played all 82 games that year while his closest competitors faced injury issues.

Their level of production pre-signing, both individually and relative to their linemates, wasn't as far off as people like to think. McDavid was also more reliant on secondary assists in his point production. McDavid was a better point producer, while Matthews was a better primary point producer and goal scorer. Both were among the best pre-signing ELC players in the entire cap era.

You must be using the same top secret internal metrics Dubas is if you think what you said is valid.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Awards say just as much about opportunity as they do the actual player?

Yes, because awards only go to one individual, and there's often little consideration for anything other than raw, basic numbers in award voting/criteria. Often times, it's the individual within a certain tier that got the most opportunity. Getting yourself in that tier is one thing. That's on the abilities and skill of the player. However, getting pumped with TOI and having his competitors run into injuries was something that helped push him to the top of the tier that year in certain raw metrics, resulting in awards, instead of just a great season.

If, for example, Crosby played the full season and McDavid missed a few games, it wouldn't make him any less of a player. You don't suddenly become a better player because you got a shiny trophy.

 

[ToneDog]

Willy may out-perform his contract but year 1 was definitely a negative.

Year 2 was much better so hopefully he can build off this going forward.

Hopefully for another team if Dubas does not fumble the ball like he did with the Kadri trade. Shanny needs to hold the boy wonder's hand this offseason or his head will roll along with Kyle's if they miss another playoffs.