Analyzing Dubas's Performance - III

[capfit9]

Yeah, while I have & continue to agree with most of the anti-Dubas crowd - unbalanced team, not enough D or compete, not build to win the low scoring, very close games usual in playoff hockey etc - it is interesting to speculate on how we'd feel if Kadri hadn't nixed the purported Calgary trade & if TJ Brodie had been a really good fit here.

Still, hopefully D acquires him or someone like him to commence redo.

this is not just a leafs issue this is the case with the marlies as well, all you have to do is hear some of the post game from Greg Moore

 

[biotk]

I think the main critique/lesson was Dubas got a little too smart for his own good trying to get a 2 for 1 deal.

He should have used Kadri to target a single D man who was a better fit.

I have made this point before so I certainly agree with this, but it makes we wonder if part of the problem which led to Dubas feeling the need to get that 3C in the deal is that everyone is way too obsessed with secondary scoring. At some point in time during the year end interviewed Dubas made the remark that Toronto's bottom six outscored Tampa's bottom six - and all I could think was who cares? You are paying the big-4 massive amounts to score. The team finished second in goals. But upon thinking about I realized that people here, and on twitter, and in the media and probably everywhere else it seems are going on and on about the lack of secondary scoring. You can't have it all. You can't pay half your cap to 4 forwards and expect strong secondary scoring and a good D-core. My choice is to have a better D-core and if that means that the bottom six is made of guys who are league min or near, and don't score, but work their butts off, so what?

But I still this all the time on here. Complaints that if we trade Kapanen or Kerfoot the Leafs' third line will be bad. Then I guess the 40 million four better show that they are worth 40M.

 

[biotk]

Muzzin - Barrie
Rielly - Ceci

Is how I saw it playing out. Two puck movers and you have a stay at home presence. Your matchups weren't traditional shut down, but neither is our roster

Those were the exact sets of pairings for the first 22 games of the season. Worked out real bad.

 

[Gallagbi]

Those were the exact sets of pairings for the first 22 games of the season. Worked out real bad.

Oh I'm aware, Barrie never played the way I expected him to here and then they shuffled to Holl-Muzz eventually which clicked. I wouldn't have minded revisiting that Muzz-Barrie pair later in the year when he was settled a bit more and performing better though. Injuries would have made that a bit tough too though

 

[saffronleaf]

I know how depressing it can be to dwell on hypothetical "what-if" scenarios, but I honestly feel like this team could have been in an excellent cap position with a more balanced roster heading into 2020-21 if not for Dubas's critical cap mistakes. If we hadn't signed Tavares, kept Bozak and Kadri, and dealt Johnsson after his 20-goal performance during the 2018-19 season, this team could have been in a prime position to add some solid players.

Salary Cap Maximum: $81,500,000 | Current Cap Hit: $67,409,000
RFAs: Mikheyev, Dermott

Forwards:
Zach Hyman ($2.25M x 1) – Auston Matthews ($11.634M x 4) – William Nylander ($6.9M x 4)
X – Nazem Kadri ($4.5M x 2) – Mitchell Marner ($10.893M x 5)
X – Tyler Bozak ($5M x 2) – Kasperi Kapanen ($3.2M x 2)
X – Pierre Engvall ($1.25M x 2) – X

Defensemen:
Rielly ($5M x 1) – X
Muzzin ($5.625M x 4) – Holl ($2M x 3)
Sandin ($894K x 2) – X

Extras:
Rosen ($750K x 1), Liljegren ($863K x 2)

Goalies:
Andersen ($5M x 1)
Campbell ($1.650M x2)

Assuming Johnsson would have been traded for a better fitting LW or packaged for a Top-4D with a similar cap hit, we would have had somewhere around $11-14M in cap space to fill out our depth, acquire a top RHD, and stabilize for Rielly + Hyman extensions in 2021. Our center depth becomes worse (Tavares >> Kadri, but Bozak > Kerfoot), but we'd be better balanced, have more cap space to add on D, and position ourselves to give Rielly + Hyman appropriate extensions in 2021. Kadri and Bozak also take cheaper deals on their next contracts in 2023 because they're aging, and those reduced cap hits set us up for the next extensions of Matthews, Marner & Nylander.

Basically, I really don't feel like Dubas prepared us for long term success here. The Tavares signing is looking more and more shortsighted.

Still won't win a round with Freddy in net though

Agreed that JT signing seems questionable in hindsight

 

[Celly Hard]

He could have traded kadri for a player that addressed our needs and had term.

pesce and Manson come to mind. I’m sure many teams wanted kadri and his sweetheart contract.

 

[m1ker]

The Par Lindholm trade speaks for itself.

 

[Celly Hard]

Still won't win a round with Freddy in net though

Agreed that JT signing seems questionable in hindsight

I know we have to move Anderson due to his contract expiring, however Freddy isn’t the problem. Look who he has playing on the blue line In front of him.

 

[Scruffers]

Still won't win a round with Freddy in net though

Agreed that JT signing seems questionable in hindsight

I think we could win a round with Freddy, but the bigger issue is that the Leafs are stuck in an antiquated mindset when it comes to goaltending. The modern NHL is all about goalie tandems, and it's hard for us to have one when we're up against the cap.

Best case scenario is that we lure someone like Lehner and trade Freddy for some assets instead of losing him in free agency in 2021-22.

 

[Stephen]

He could have traded kadri for a player that addressed our needs and had term.

pesce and Manson come to mind. I’m sure many teams wanted kadri and his sweetheart contract.

I wonder if a Kadri, Marleau dump and a 2nd for Pesce + could have been worked out as an alternative cure all solution.

The thing that really hurt us on the Barrie deal is we only had one kick at the can, so it still left a giant hole in the organization on the RHD side for 2020-21.

 

[saffronleaf]

I know we have to move Anderson due to his contract expiring, however Freddy isn’t the problem. Look who he has playing on the blue line In front of him.

He's a textbook choker. Playing good from November to February is fine to get into the playoffs but can't win meaningful games with him.

Would rather have a tandem situation with Campbell and Georgiev.

 

[Stephen]

what if Dubas wants the focus to be on him instead of his players/Keefe?

Having a media circus centered around your GM would probably be one of the more dysfunctional things for a team. Can't see that being an advantage.

 

[Celly Hard]

He's a textbook choker. Playing good from November to February is fine to get into the playoffs but can't win meaningful games with him.

Would rather have a tandem situation with Campbell and Georgiev.

Loll, you put Freddy on a team with sub par D and he’ll look like a vezina candidate. Our defence and lack of ambition is what killed us year after year, not Freddy.

Seems like a lot of us forget what it was like to have trash goalies for over a decade.

 

[capfit9]

He could have traded kadri for a player that addressed our needs and had term.

pesce and Manson come to mind. I’m sure many teams wanted kadri and his sweetheart contract.

So true but some people on these boards can't grasp that concept

 

[KPower]

I didn’t think the Kadri trade was bad at the time.

I didn’t realize Barrie was a dog shit player, Sakic knew though.

 

[93LEAFS]

Simply put? Yes, he definitely should have been an upgrade and was. It certainly wasn't the upgrade I wanted and he didnt play to his potential, but we lack true NHL quality defensemen and he was that.

Muzzin - Barrie
Rielly - Ceci

Is how I saw it playing out. Two puck movers and you have a stay at home presence. Your matchups weren't traditional shut down, but neither is our roster

Barrie has almost always been insanely sheltered. He usually starts off with a 60% or higher offensive to defensive zone start range. If anything was clear about Ceci, it was that you can't download very tough usage on to him otherwise he cracks. Which is why Barrie really didn't fill a need or fit in.

 

[Gary Nylund]

To be fair, while the Dubas RFA negotiations deserve some criticism, there is a difference between the Kadri/Rielly extensions and the Matthews/Nylander/Marner extensions.

The Kadri and Rielly ext were considered good for both sides at the time and look like steals now but their extensions were signed before they broke out and had their best seasons. They both signed in the spring of 2016 where Kadri had only hit the 50pt mark once then had his 30 goals seasons the following 2 seasons after signing and Rielly at the point of signing had a career best 36 points then didn't break out till 2 years later.
Similar to how the MacKinnon and Pasta contracts are steals now.

Matthews was signed after a 40 goal rookie campaign followed up by 2 ppg+ seasons and being one of the best 5on5 goal scorers the league has seen in a while and emerging top 5 center in the league. Marner was signed after 2 60+ pt seasons and a 94 pt season over his first 3 years. Nylander was signed after back to back 61 pt seasons and looked to have 70 pt potential in his prime.

The situations were different. Kadri and Rielly were signed with the assumption that they were going to break out while Matthews and Marner were already producing near the top of the league and Nylander was considered a slight overpayment to fair based on production at the time while looking great now.

Marner's the only one that really frustrates me because he got paid so much, it's almost impossible for him to outperform his contract so in that sense, zero upside for the team. So while it was possible for Rielly and Kadri to outperform their deals, we have almost no such hope at all with the big 3, especially Marner. And Marner hadn't done it long enough to deserve that kind of payday, it would have made more sense to bridge him. Even if he had another great year or two he could still hardly demand more than he got so no risk in a bridge teal for the team. Unless of course Dubas was so thrilled with him that he thought a 120 point season was a possibility ...

Marner's agent hit it out of the park and all Dubas can do now, is stand there in the middle of the field with a dumb look on his face watching the ball fly over the fence.

 

[Stephen]

I didn’t think the Kadri trade was bad at the time.

I didn’t realize Barrie was a dog shit player, Sakic knew though.

Colorado was a really, really bad defensive team for most of Barrie's time there.

 

[JSn0w93]

I wonder if a Kadri, Marleau dump and a 2nd for Pesce + could have been worked out as an alternative cure all solution.

The thing that really hurt us on the Barrie deal is we only had one kick at the can, so it still left a giant hole in the organization on the RHD side for 2020-21.

All good points, but the thing that really hurt us on the Barrie deal is that he’s just not very good. We should be thankful he didn’t come with longer term presently.

With that said of course at the time anyone of us would have taken more term on his deal.

 

[Celly Hard]

He’s walking Matthews right into free agency lol.

if you’re dishing out that kind of money on your RFA forwards, you better get the max term.

 

[Ifittex il Verita]

Simply put? Yes, he definitely should have been an upgrade and was. It certainly wasn't the upgrade I wanted and he didnt play to his potential, but we lack true NHL quality defensemen and he was that.

Muzzin - Barrie
Rielly - Ceci

Is how I saw it playing out. Two puck movers and you have a stay at home presence. Your matchups weren't traditional shut down, but neither is our roster

Ceci a stay at home presence? At no point in his career was he ever such a thing. I'm convinced Dubas has no idea what good defensemen look like.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

He’s walking Matthews right into free agency lol.

if you’re dishing out that kind of money on your RFA forwards, you better get the max term.

any contract other than a bridge deal walks a player into free agency

 

[Scruffers]

He’s walking Matthews right into free agency lol.

if you’re dishing out that kind of money on your RFA forwards, you better get the max term.

Of all the decisions Dubas has made, this is the one I disagree with the most.

I will never understand not signing your franchise player to max term. For all the (justified) criticism directed at the Oilers, at least they locked up McDavid and Draisaitl for 8 years.

 

[Stephen]

Ceci a stay at home presence? At no point in his career was he ever such a thing. I'm convinced Dubas has no idea what good defensemen look like.

Cody Ceci was originally projected as a well rounded two way defenseman, but his offensive development didn't really go as planned, so he's a "defensive defenseman" by default. Though strictly speaking, he's not really a great defensive presence either, he's just "stay at home" because he's not allowed to do anything else.

https://thehockeywriters.com/cody-c...t-prospect-profile-defending-nations-capital/

 

[Stephen]

Of all the decisions Dubas has made, this is the one I disagree with the most.

I will never understand not signing your franchise player to max term. For all the (justified) criticism directed at the Oilers, at least they locked up McDavid and Draisaitl for 8 years.

Call me crazy, but MLSE's bank vault is going to keep Auston Matthews here for a long, long time.