Analyzing Dubas's Performance - III

[capfit9]

Nobody is saying otherwise, what I'm saying is that our D was a weak point and he tried to address it with the Kadri deal. It didn't work out as hoped, but you're not upgrading the team for the $2M you have to acquire a D if you keep Kadri.

Kerfoot is a downgrade on Kadri, but Barrie was a big part of the deal - especially at the 50% salary retained. So if you keep Kadri, you're left with a key open spot on the roster that needs to be filled with little money to do it

I understand the logic behind the trade but the fact remains it didn't work. According to Dubass' judgement it should have but didn't and he has to wear that. I'm not sure there is a leafs fan that will disagree that the Kadri trade is one of the worst especially considering Barrie walks and probably provided them $2m worth of value given his performance and the fact that they were probably not going to be able to re-sign him even before he played a game makes it even worse.

And if you recall at or close to the TDL, Bogosian would have signed in Toronto but Dubas decided to back out and eventually Bogosian went to Tampa and is now playing with Hedman. Instead, Dubass decided to help out VGK acquire Lehner by retaining salary on the goalie and getting a 5th. These are all judgement calls from Dubass and that's what I question which have nothing to do with analytics.

 

[Scruffers]

Nobody is saying otherwise, what I'm saying is that our D was a weak point and he tried to address it with the Kadri deal. It didn't work out as hoped, but you're not upgrading the team for the $2M you have to acquire a D if you keep Kadri.

Kerfoot is a downgrade on Kadri, but Barrie was a big part of the deal - especially at the 50% salary retained. So if you keep Kadri, you're left with a key open spot on the roster that needs to be filled with little money to do it

Tavares + Kerfoot is better than Kadri + Bozak, but if we had maintained those two as our centremen, we would instead be looking at $5M to upgrade our defense as opposed to just $2M. At $5M, suddenly you have the same amount of cap space that Charlie McAvoy is eating up on Boston, and just shy of Torey Krug's cap hit.

Instead of scraping the bottom of the barrel for defensemen on cheap deals, you now have enough balance in your cap management to accommodate good players.

 

[93LEAFS]

Nobody is saying otherwise, what I'm saying is that our D was a weak point and he tried to address it with the Kadri deal. It didn't work out as hoped, but you're not upgrading the team for the $2M you have to acquire a D if you keep Kadri.

Kerfoot is a downgrade on Kadri, but Barrie was a big part of the deal - especially at the 50% salary retained. So if you keep Kadri, you're left with a key open spot on the roster that needs to be filled with little money to do it

You can also trade him for just futures, and sign a vet on a tiny one year deal.

Barrie really did nothing for us. Outside of being a RHD he filled none of our needs.

 

[Gallagbi]

I understand the logic behind the trade but the fact remains it didn't work. According to Dubass' judgement it should have but didn't and he has to wear that. I'm not sure there is a leafs fan that will disagree that the Kadri trade is one of the worst especially considering Barrie walks and probably provided them $2m worth of value given his performance and the fact that they were probably not going to be able to re-sign him even before he played a game makes it even worse.

And if you recall at or close to the TDL, Bogosian would have signed in Toronto but Dubas decided to back out and eventually Bogosian went to Tampa and is now playing with Hedman. Instead, Dubass decided to help out VGK acquire Lehner by retaining salary on the goalie and getting a 5th. These are all judgement calls from Dubass and that's what I question which have nothing to do with analytics.

It's not a matter of disagreeing with the trade, because that's understandable and it clearly didn't work out. It's your suggestion that they added cap with the Kadri move without acknowledging that it filled an extra spot on the roster.

I'm sure you believe that an upgrade to our top 4 would cost more than $2M last summer.

 

[Menzinger]

You can also trade him for just futures, and sign a vet on a tiny one year deal.

Barrie really did nothing for us. Outside of being a RHD he filled none of our needs.

Barrie was indeed a poor fit, but it's not true that he filled zero needs. The team didn't have a single guy who could move the puck on the right side at 5v5.

The trade was a complete flop, but there was a logic to it

 

[DarkKnight]

Two successive coaches didn’t trust Barrie in our end, he was sheltered. When people say Dubas addressed a need on D, I challenge anyone to point to a soft, one dimensional D man as a need on the team? Also, he was redundant on the PP, merely replacing Reilly who is just as good. Again, yes we needed a right D, Dubas erred in trading for the wrong kind of D man. And, people just leave out the key fact, ONE year as well, there was little chance of resigning him, that’s part of why the Avs were ecstatic to get the trade. Also, another small, dime a dozen forward, was the last thing we needed, so Kerfoot was just a secondary piece.

Dubas failed to recognize that Barrie wasn’t what we needed on D, instead of holding firm on a number 2 center, he traded Kadri like he had too. Why? Wait on the asset until you get the return you want, his cap hit made him easily trade-able at all times. It was a brutal trade and watching Barrie never show any leadership or jam whatsoever, never raise his game, play selfishly, was just salt in the wound. If posters can’t at least admit this is a black mark on Dubas’ record, then I conclude they have no interest in fair debate. I just said I’ve liked his drafts so far, because I’m not in any “camp” but in totality his reign is checkered at best so far. This story also isn’t complete, but we’re in a precarious spot now because of missteps.

 

[Gallagbi]

You can also trade him for just futures, and sign a vet on a tiny one year deal.

Barrie really did nothing for us. Outside of being a RHD he filled none of our needs.

Given Hainsey signed at $3.5 I think you're in tough with that upgrade and I'm a Hainsey fan.

Trading Kadri (or even Kap/AJ) was the move IMO, we just needed some different and better pieces than what we got which was a downgrade on 3C and a lost Tyson Barrie

 

[Mickey Marner]

Matthews dropped the ball and his pants on getting the Captaincy
Thats it, if he hadn’t have gotten himself in that sh!t in Arizona he would be Captain. He blindsided the team too. That screwed him of it i believe fully. Tavares is fine. Matthews deserves it as he has just improved so much this year.

Probably, but you don't need a 'C' to be a leader. Bergeron has never worn it, but is considered a fantastic leader.

 

[capfit9]

It's not a matter of disagreeing with the trade, because that's understandable and it clearly didn't work out. It's your suggestion that they added cap with the Kadri move without acknowledging that it filled an extra spot on the roster.

I'm sure you believe that an upgrade to our top 4 would cost more than $2M last summer.

I would argue you could have invested less on a third line player and re-allocated those dollars toward an upgrade or more depth on the backend. When one defender goes down to injury and your only options are Marincin or a rookie that's a misjudgement and I've not even started on his handling of the backup goalie knowing that a majority of your back to backs are in the beginning of the season.

 

[Gallagbi]

I would argue you could have invested less on a third line player and re-allocated those dollars toward an upgrade or more depth on the backend. When one defender goes down to injury and your only options are Marincin or a rookie that's a misjudgement and I've not even started on his handling of the backup goalie knowing that a majority of your back to backs are in the beginning of the season.

You kept Kadri over Kerfoot in your scenario, so you already spent that 3rd line money

 

[Menzinger]

Given Hainsey signed at $3.5 I think you're in tough with that upgrade and I'm a Hainsey fan.

Trading Kadri (or even Kap/AJ) was the move IMO, we just needed some different and better pieces than what we got which was a downgrade on 3C and a lost Tyson Barrie

I think the main critique/lesson was Dubas got a little too smart for his own good trying to get a 2 for 1 deal.

He should have used Kadri to target a single D man who was a better fit.

 

[capfit9]

You kept Kadri over Kerfoot in your scenario, so you already spent that 3rd line money

i've never said they keep Kadri, can be traded for futures and then flipped for whatever. the actual Kadri trade is awful though.

 

[ToneDog]

i've never said they keep Kadri, can be traded for futures and then flipped for whatever. the actual Kadri trade is awful though.

The AVs were looking for a #2C. Not sure if they were willing to give up prospects. With Makar's arrival, it marked the end of the line for Barrie in Denver. Dubas should have held the hammer over Sakic and tried to get more out of Sakic. Sadly Sakic fleeced the boy wonder.

 

[Gallagbi]

i've never said they keep Kadri, can be traded for futures and then flipped for whatever. the actual Kadri trade is awful though.

Your initial post I quoted was about how Kadri earns less than Barrie + Kerfoot. I highlighted they fill 2 roles vs. one, then you got confused at how I wanted to fill a roster with hockey players and now we're here.

It's fine if you want to say the Barrie trade was bad or that we should have kept Kadri. My point was you can't compare two players filling relatively large roles to 1 player and their salary.

 

[capfit9]

The AVs were looking for a #2C. Not sure if they were willing to give up prospects. With Makar's arrival, it marked the end of the line for Barrie, Dubas should have help the hammer over Sakic and tried to get more out of Sakic. Sadly Sakic fleeced the boy wonder.

I'm sure there were other teams interested in Kadri as well, he didn't have to be traded to COL

 

[Gallagbi]

I think the main critique/lesson was Dubas got a little too smart for his own good trying to get a 2 for 1 deal.

He should have used Kadri to target a single D man who was a better fit.

Yup, definitely ends up with him looking "too cute" in the process. Should have focused one 1 need instead of two, especially with a controllable asset.

 

[capfit9]

Your initial post I quoted was about how Kadri earns less than Barrie + Kerfoot. I highlighted they fill 2 roles vs. one, then you got confused at how I wanted to fill a roster with hockey players and now we're here.

It's fine if you want to say the Barrie trade was bad or that we should have kept Kadri. My point was you can't compare two players filling relatively large roles to 1 player and their salary.

not confused bud

 

[m1ker]

Lou made robidas and lupul disappear. What makes you think he didn’t have a plan to banish marleau?

 

[m1ker]

30 out of 31 teams a year don’t win the Stanley cup right? Guess All those GMs are trash too. Well unless they’re over 50 and from some meaningless small town in Canada then they’re great

Leafs haven’t won a playoff series since I was 14. I’m now 30 years old...

 

[93LEAFS]

It's not a matter of disagreeing with the trade, because that's understandable and it clearly didn't work out. It's your suggestion that they added cap with the Kadri move without acknowledging that it filled an extra spot on the roster.

I'm sure you believe that an upgrade to our top 4 would cost more than $2M last summer.

Was Barrie really an upgrade? He filled very few needs. It was obvious at the time, he really didn't fit with Muzzin or Rielly. Which I pointed out at the time. You either had to download all really tough usage to Rielly-Holl/Ceci, and not use Muzzin as a shutdown match-up guy, or have two defenders who both need a stay at home precense with Rielly/Barrie.

 

[93LEAFS]

Barrie was indeed a poor fit, but it's not true that he filled zero needs. The team didn't have a single guy who could move the puck on the right side at 5v5.

The trade was a complete flop, but there was a logic to it

He didn't fit with Muzzin or Rielly. Which made him not address needs. We compromised on need and sold Kadri way too fast to go in for one year. I would get it, if it was for Trouba to chance it on one year, but not for Barrie.

 

[Northofyu]

I think the main critique/lesson was Dubas got a little too smart for his own good trying to get a 2 for 1 deal.

He should have used Kadri to target a single D man who was a better fit.

Yeah, while I have & continue to agree with most of the anti-Dubas crowd - unbalanced team, not enough D or compete, not build to win the low scoring, very close games usual in playoff hockey etc - it is interesting to speculate on how we'd feel if Kadri hadn't nixed the purported Calgary trade & if TJ Brodie had been a really good fit here.

Still, hopefully D acquires him or someone like him to commence redo.

 

[Gallagbi]

Was Barrie really an upgrade? He filled very few needs. It was obvious at the time, he really didn't fit with Muzzin or Rielly. Which I pointed out at the time. You either had to download all really tough usage to Rielly-Holl/Ceci, and not use Muzzin as a shutdown match-up guy, or have two defenders who both need a stay at home precense with Rielly/Barrie.

Simply put? Yes, he definitely should have been an upgrade and was. It certainly wasn't the upgrade I wanted and he didnt play to his potential, but we lack true NHL quality defensemen and he was that.

Muzzin - Barrie
Rielly - Ceci

Is how I saw it playing out. Two puck movers and you have a stay at home presence. Your matchups weren't traditional shut down, but neither is our roster

 

[Scruffers]

I know how depressing it can be to dwell on hypothetical "what-if" scenarios, but I honestly feel like this team could have been in an excellent cap position with a more balanced roster heading into 2020-21 if not for Dubas's critical cap mistakes. If we hadn't signed Tavares, kept Bozak and Kadri, and dealt Johnsson after his 20-goal performance during the 2018-19 season, this team could have been in a prime position to add some solid players.

Salary Cap Maximum: $81,500,000 | Current Cap Hit: $67,409,000
RFAs: Mikheyev, Dermott

Forwards:
Zach Hyman ($2.25M x 1) – Auston Matthews ($11.634M x 4) – William Nylander ($6.9M x 4)
X – Nazem Kadri ($4.5M x 2) – Mitchell Marner ($10.893M x 5)
X – Tyler Bozak ($5M x 2) – Kasperi Kapanen ($3.2M x 2)
X – Pierre Engvall ($1.25M x 2) – X

Defensemen:
Rielly ($5M x 1) – X
Muzzin ($5.625M x 4) – Holl ($2M x 3)
Sandin ($894K x 2) – X

Extras:
Rosen ($750K x 1), Liljegren ($863K x 2)

Goalies:
Andersen ($5M x 1)
Campbell ($1.650M x2)

Assuming Johnsson would have been traded for a better fitting LW or packaged for a Top-4D with a similar cap hit, we would have had somewhere around $11-14M in cap space to fill out our depth, acquire a top RHD, and stabilize for Rielly + Hyman extensions in 2021. Our center depth becomes worse (Tavares >> Kadri, but Bozak > Kerfoot), but we'd be better balanced, have more cap space to add on D, and position ourselves to give Rielly + Hyman appropriate extensions in 2021. Kadri and Bozak also take cheaper deals on their next contracts in 2023 because they're aging, and those reduced cap hits set us up for the next extensions of Matthews, Marner & Nylander.

Basically, I really don't feel like Dubas prepared us for long term success here. The Tavares signing is looking more and more shortsighted.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Lou made robidas and lupul disappear. What makes you think he didn’t have a plan to banish marleau?

the fact that Marleau was an iron man who wanted to play, and Robidas and Lupul weren't fit to play