Analyzing Dubas's Performance - III

[Scruffers]

Call me crazy, but MLSE's bank vault is going to keep Auston Matthews here for a long, long time.

I wouldn't be so sure. Sometimes it doesn't matter how much money you throw at a player; if they want to leave, they'll leave.

 

[namttebih]

Of course not, but the Marleau disposal deal occurred well before there was a pandemic. Surely he was aware that signing JT, Nylander, Matthews, Marner, Johnnson and Kappy would have implications.

For sure. Nobody thought that Marner was going to get that kind of cash though and Johnsson and Kappy were luxuries that we probably shouldn't have indulged in. All 3 over payments in my opinion which should be burdened by Dubas. That said, signing a superstar C in his prime trumps possible signings on the wing. What makes it look even worse is the fact that all 3 went into RFA having breakout seasons, which were followed up by a relative step back.

 

[4thline]

Call me crazy, but MLSE's bank vault is going to keep Auston Matthews here for a long, long time.

I think being free from a coach that think's he's the star of Seabiscuit rather than a supporting player in Secretariat will (and has already) go a long way.

You can already see him playing with more fire.

 

[HolyCrap]

So i guess every gm is a winner just by filling out a roster every year, great standards

I assume he means filling out the roster effectively to compete. IMO.

 

[justashadowof]

I think being free from a coach that think's he's the star of Seabiscuit rather than a supporting player in Secretariat will (and has already) go a long way.

You can already see him playing with more fire.

Let's see what happens when the standard for judging the coach of Toronto Maple Leafs is winning playoff rounds instead of accumulating sweet individual stats during the regular season. That's less than a year away.

 

[Menzinger]

Call me crazy, but MLSE's bank vault is going to keep Auston Matthews here for a long, long time.

He also seems to like being a star (like he does magazine fashion shoots ect) - he can only get that kind of attention from a few markets. New York probably the only one state side that's comparable.

I'd wager based on what we know today hell be a Leaf for quite a while

 

[Stephen]

He also seems to like being a star (like he does magazine fashion shoots ect) - he can only get that kind of attention from a few markets. New York probably the only one state side that's comparable.

I'd wager based on what we know today hell be a Leaf for quite a while

He seems to have taken some real ownership of the team in the season ending presser, speaking of belief and frustration. Also, if you’re the centrepiece of one the great franchises you’re not going to go be a mercenary for someone else’s championship hunt.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

Remember when Kyle Dubas traded NHL’er Par Lindholm for AHL’er Nic Petan?

Bruce Cassidy and the Boston Bruins seem to have found a role for him. Perfect 12-13th fwd for 800k. Play all 3 fwd positions, solid PK’er, good head for the game, and skills to be a bit of a Swiss Army knife. Good value pickup for the B’s.

Petan is a waste of a roster spot.

Lindholm was brutal for the Leafs.
Petan scored in his first game as a Leaf tying what Lindholm managed in 61 games.

 

[biotk]

Oh I'm aware, Barrie never played the way I expected him to here and then they shuffled to Holl-Muzz eventually which clicked. I wouldn't have minded revisiting that Muzz-Barrie pair later in the year when he was settled a bit more and performing better though. Injuries would have made that a bit tough too though

I simply don't think the Muzzin - Barrie pairing could have ever worked. For the team to be competitive Muzzin has to be going up against the best. But Barrie has always been sheltered and we all know why now.

Like, most fans, I was a happy about the trade at the time - but I, like most fans, are not responsible for evaluating a player before a trade. Dubas and his team are - that is there job - and they miffed on this one extremely bad. That is what I find most frustrating about Dubas saying that the problem was actually that they needed to do a better job integrating the player into the team. Not that I think that Dubas actually believes what he said there. But if he does it means that he and his management team are not taking responsibility for what was a colossal failure in scouting and player evaluation before a trade which sent an extremely good player the other way. Along with a massive failure to evaluate their own players and how they will all fit together. That is extremely troubling for a team that needs to makes changes to be competitive. I have zero faith in their ability to put together a competitive and based on what they have shown no one should.

 

[Stephen]

Anyway, back to GM habits for a second. One thing the Islanders have done well is they’ve spent a lot of time and picks stocking and developing serviceable defensemen outside of the first round. Scott Mayfield, Devon Toews, Adam Pelech, Travis Hamonic, and the next generation of Bode Wilde, Sebastian Aho. A lot of these guys are just guys they’ve spent a good amount of time grooming at the lower levels. This is definitely a long term, low hanging fruit the Leafs need to do better.

 

[All Mod Cons]

I wonder if a Kadri, Marleau dump and a 2nd for Pesce + could have been worked out as an alternative cure all solution.

The thing that really hurt us on the Barrie deal is we only had one kick at the can, so it still left a giant hole in the organization on the RHD side for 2020-21.

And that would've been the same has we acquired T.J.Brodie. i feel between this trade and the Tavares signing (and multiple 1st round picks traded), Dubas didn't want to grow anything steadily, which worries me as I don't think we're very close to being legit contenders.

 

[Stephen]

And that would've been the same has we acquired T.J.Brodie. i feel between this trade and the Tavares signing (amd multiple 1st round picks traded), Dubas didn't want to grow anything steadily, which worries me as I don't think we're very close to being legit contenders.

Good point. The past 24 months felt like Dubas has been trying to fast forward to the championship. The Barrie deal was definitely meant to supercharge the Leafs like Kadri did for Colorado. At the rate he is going, he really needs to take stock on some of those Anderson, AJ, Kap, Kerfoot contracts, recoup a stockpile of futures and find cap flexibility and reload with purpose.

 

[Scruffers]

Anyway, back to GM habits for a second. One thing the Islanders have done well is they’ve spent a lot of time and picks stocking and developing serviceable defensemen outside of the first round. Scott Mayfield, Devon Toews, Adam Pelech, Travis Hamonic, and the next generation of Bode Wilde, Sebastian Aho. A lot of these guys are just guys they’ve spent a good amount of time grooming at the lower levels. This is definitely a long term, low hanging fruit the Leafs need to do better.

This is what I wanted the Leafs to do. I was on board with a long term rebuild, but I feel like our management pushed us to be contenders way too early. We should have spent much longer stockpiling picks and prospects, especially quality defensemen. Our management has steadily lost us quality draft picks over the years, which we could have used to fill our system with talent. We've burned a LOT of our prime picks in recent years:

• 2017: 2nd round pick for Boyle
• 2018: 2nd round pick for Plekanec
• 2019: 1st round pick for Muzzin
• 2020: 3rd round pick for Barrie + Kerfoot
• 2020: 1st round pick for Marleau salary dump
• 2021: 3rd/2nd round pick for Campbell + Clifford

In a vacuum, maybe losing one of these picks isn't the end of the world. But now we're in a situation where we're maxed to the cap, our prospect pool is pretty thin, the Marlies aren't great anymore, and we haven't had a first round pick since 2018.

 

[All Mod Cons]

This is what I wanted the Leafs to do. I was on board with a long term rebuild, but I feel like our management pushed us to be contenders way too early. We should have spent much longer stockpiling picks and prospects, especially quality defensemen. Our management has steadily lost us quality draft picks over the years, which we could have used to fill our system with talent. We've burned a LOT of our prime picks in recent years:

• 2017: 2nd round pick for Boyle
• 2018: 2nd round pick for Plekanec
• 2019: 1st round pick for Muzzin
• 2020: 3rd round pick for Barrie + Kerfoot
• 2020: 1st round pick for Marleau salary dump
• 2021: 3rd/2nd round pick for Campbell + Clifford

In a vacuum, maybe losing one of these picks isn't the end of the world. But now we're in a situation where we're maxed to the cap, our prospect pool is pretty thin, the Marlies aren't great anymore, and we haven't had a first round pick since 2018.

Agreed. Which is kind of weird because you'd assume a Lou/Babcock pairing would ship out draft picks (old school draft schmaft) more than Dubas (a new age GM).

 

[Stephen]

Which is why I think we need to restart the build portion of the program by turning AJ, Kap and Kerfoot into as many youth assets as we can get, and have the $9 million plus in salary saved and $6.5 million saved from Barrie and Ceci to be used to re-balance the roster via UFA market, hoping that Covid salaries are depressed and bigger stars are willing to sign very short term. This bridges us to 2021, at which point I hope to see the Leafs resume their first round drafting and won't trade future first rounders.

Basically, the name of the game is trying to build some momentum by turnover.

 

[sparxx87]

Re the last paragraph, it's mainly conjecture but I look at it from two main angles
Lou and the Isles- yes, they're having some playoff success (and it will be a real kick in the teeth if they win) but their cap situation makes ours look rosy. It'd be like if instead of JT Dubas re-signed Bozak(Lee) and JVR (Nelson), then instead of Muzzin traded a 1st for Nick Jensen and re-signed him to a long term deal based on a career year(Pageau), , leaving us 15m to re-sign Matthews, Marner, Kapanen (Barzal, Pulock, Toews) with no money the next season to sign a better version of Kapanen (Beauvillier) plus 26 year old super Dermott (Pelech). Unless Lou pulls an absolute rabbit out of his ass that team is set to start hemorrhaging talent.

Personalities- I think that Matthews and Marner were chafing badly under Babcock, and that unhappiness was part of the fuel to testy negotiations. And I don't think it's about them being too soft to handle a tough coach, I think that they were fed up with his bullshit (and I picked the word chaffing deliberately) and hated being reined in. They're stars that want the team on their backs. They want to play to win.

Lou- given the above difficulties, both personality and cap constraint, I think Lou's take no prisoner approach to negotiation would have either led to fireworks and offer sheets (there's no chance in hell a disgruntled Matthews was accepting a lou special NJ era bridge to make things work) or trades when he'd they'd call him on his "sign this if you want to a Leaf" ultimatum.

Don't get me wrong, I think that he'd make out okay in the trades, and that combined with maybe a successful bridge would lead to a few years of strong teams. But this core wasn't not surviving his short term cup ambition, at least not in a way that kept them viable long term.


I think the odds of a 15 year Matthews tenure have risen exponentially.

It wouldn’t be kick in the teeth for me at all, I like the Islanders. I’ve probably been to more Islander games than any other team over the past 7-8 years so I’m happy to see them do well.

They have money tied up but it’s mostly in their core pieces so they’re paying to compete now. Barzal and Beauvillier will be interesting but a lot can happen in a year or two. They’ll likely have to move money next offseason but I’m just not so quick to count them out. Key parts to your breakdown, which was very good by they way, is that some view the Pageau pickup, for example, as a bad one. I don’t, I thought it was a great pickup for them. He’s a really good two way player if he can stay healthy. There’s definitely risk with it, but they’re betting on him so we’ll see how it turns out. He played really well tonight!

I agree with most of the last part, aside from the optimism Matthews will be in Toronto 15 years. Hope you’re right.

Lamoriello driving the hard bargain is tough to call but you always have to wonder how the entire situation may have been different had he been able to stay on for another few years. I’m of the belief that he wouldn’t have signed John Tavares and reset the internal cap structure. I think he would have got Matthews for 11-11.5 for 6-8 yrs (I don’t hate the 11.6, I hate the 5 yrs) and then laughed at Marner’s agent for suggesting he should be paid like Nikita Kucherov, never mind more.... That now keeps Nazem Kadri as the 2C, and they likely resign Bozak to his 3 year deal for slightly less than the 4.5m he was making in Toronto. The same Tyler Bozak that’s always been an excellent 3C and just lifted the cup in that role last June. Also important to consider the final roughly 1/2 - 1/3 of 17/18 when Marner was moved from Bozak’s wing to Kadri’s. If memory serves, that was the first consistent stretch where Marner was a ppg player for an extended period while Kadri on the 2nd of back to back 30g seasons.

I also think the no JT makes the Marleau situation play out differently. There had to have been a better plan than giving up a first. And if not a better plan, a better solution. (Kadri + Bozak at 8.5 vs Tavares + Kerfoot at 14.5)

Coaching situation is a tough one because it was clear they didn’t like playing for him but quitting on the coach was pretty embarrassing on their behalf. Every one of them should be ashamed for hanging Kaskisuo out to dry on his first NHL start. There may have been a coaching issue, but that points to a character and culture issue as well. That’s pretty concerning to me. A culture issue isn’t something I’ve ever considered of a Lou Lamoriello team.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

I hope Colorado wins the cup and when Kadri brings it home to Toronto and after he drives up and down Yonge st. his last stop he sits at the bottom of Dubas's driveway and sips bubbly out of it for an hour and with a sign on the car that says,
What could have been Kyle but you blew it.

Bruins barely get by the Leafs last year, needing 7 games, after Kadri gets himself suspended for the SECOND straight year. Then the Bruins make it all the way to the finals.
No one knows how much Kadri cost the Leafs last year.
Kadri had to be traded, you don't keep a dog that keeps biting your children (hard!) do you?
However, Dubas does deserve to be called out for trading Kadri for Tyson Barrie, though I think Kerfoot has been fine.

 

[Scruffers]

Lamoriello driving the hard bargain is tough to call but you always have to wonder how the entire situation may have been different had he been able to stay on for another few years. I’m of the belief that he wouldn’t have signed John Tavares and reset the internal cap structure. I think he would have got Matthews for 11-11.5 for 6-8 yrs (I don’t hate the 11.6, I hate the 5 yrs) and then laughed at Marner’s agent for suggesting he should be paid like Nikita Kucherov, never mind more.... That now keeps Nazem Kadri as the 2C, and they likely resign Bozak to his 3 year deal for slightly less then the 4.5m he was making in Toronto. The same Tyler Bozak that’s always been an excellent 3C and just lifted the cup in that role last June. Also important to consider the final roughly 1/2 - 1/3 of 17/18 when Marner was moved from Bozak’s wing to Kadri’s. If memory serves, that was the first consistent stretch where Marner was a ppg player for an extended period while Kadri on the 2nd of back to back 30g seasons.

Definitely agree with this. I really feel that we lost sight of the overall plan for this team when we decided to chase Tavares. I think Kadri and Bozak as our centers would have been better for this team, especially considering they fill roles that we now currently lack (physical pest in Kadri, defensively responsible center that can win faceoffs and kill penalties in Bozak).

I also think the no JT makes the Marleau situation play out differently. There had to have been a better plan than giving up a first. And if not a better plan, a better solution.

The solution would have been to sit in the last year of Marleau's deal, where he likely gets demoted to the 4th line in a similar role that Spezza has under Keefe. Our cap situation was completely fine even with the Marleau + the RFA deals; it only became an issue when Dubas brought in JT.

Every one of them should be ashamed for hanging Kaskisuo out to dry on his first NHL start. There may have been a coaching issue, but that points to a character and culture issue as well. That’s pretty concerning to me. A culture issue isn’t something I’ve ever considered of a Lou Lamoriello team.

The team clearly has a maturity issue, and I think it really became a problem when veteran presences like Kadri, Bozak, and Marleau left. Obviously none of us know what goes on in the room, but I have to wonder if a lot of these culture issues arose because they were gone.

 

[93LEAFS]

Marner's the only one that really frustrates me because he got paid so much, it's almost impossible for him to outperform his contract so in that sense, zero upside for the team. So while it was possible for Rielly and Kadri to outperform their deals, we have almost no such hope at all with the big 3, especially Marner. And Marner hadn't done it long enough to deserve that kind of payday, it would have made more sense to bridge him. Even if he had another great year or two he could still hardly demand more than he got so no risk in a bridge teal for the team. Unless of course Dubas was so thrilled with him that he thought a 120 point season was a possibility ...

Marner's agent hit it out of the park and all Dubas can do now, is stand there in the middle of the field with a dumb look on his face watching the ball fly over the fence.

I think it would be very hard for Matthews to out-perform his deal too. Especially when the term is factored in. Only Willy is in a position to do it of the big 4 forwards.

 

[sparxx87]

Definitely agree with this. I really feel that we lost sight of the overall plan for this team when we decided to chase Tavares. I think Kadri and Bozak as our centers would have been better for this team, especially considering they fill roles that we now currently lack (physical pest in Kadri, defensively responsible center that can win faceoffs and kill penalties in Bozak).



The solution would have been to sit in the last year of Marleau's deal, where he likely gets demoted to the 4th line in a similar role that Spezza has under Keefe. Our cap situation was completely fine even with the Marleau + the RFA deals; it only became an issue when Dubas brought in JT.



The team clearly has a maturity issue, and I think it really became a problem when veteran presences like Kadri, Bozak, and Marleau left. Obviously none of us know what goes on in the room, but I have to wonder if a lot of these culture issues arose because they were gone.

I agree. I just edited my post to include Tavares + Kerfoot are 14.5m while Bozak and Kadri would have been 8.5-9m. Thats key in all of this as well.

And I think that means Morgan Rielly is wearing the C as well.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

This is what I wanted the Leafs to do. I was on board with a long term rebuild, but I feel like our management pushed us to be contenders way too early. We should have spent much longer stockpiling picks and prospects, especially quality defensemen. Our management has steadily lost us quality draft picks over the years, which we could have used to fill our system with talent. We've burned a LOT of our prime picks in recent years:

• 2017: 2nd round pick for Boyle
• 2018: 2nd round pick for Plekanec
• 2019: 1st round pick for Muzzin
• 2020: 3rd round pick for Barrie + Kerfoot
• 2020: 1st round pick for Marleau salary dump
• 2021: 3rd/2nd round pick for Campbell + Clifford

In a vacuum, maybe losing one of these picks isn't the end of the world. But now we're in a situation where we're maxed to the cap, our prospect pool is pretty thin, the Marlies aren't great anymore, and we haven't had a first round pick since 2018.

The only one there that REALLY bothers me is the 1st to dump Marleau.

That 3rd round is not why the Kerfoot and Barrie trade was bad that shouldn't even be brought up

 

[Mickey Marner]

This is what I wanted the Leafs to do. I was on board with a long term rebuild, but I feel like our management pushed us to be contenders way too early. We should have spent much longer stockpiling picks and prospects, especially quality defensemen. Our management has steadily lost us quality draft picks over the years, which we could have used to fill our system with talent. We've burned a LOT of our prime picks in recent years:

• 2017: 2nd round pick for Boyle
• 2018: 2nd round pick for Plekanec
• 2019: 1st round pick for Muzzin
• 2020: 3rd round pick for Barrie + Kerfoot
• 2020: 1st round pick for Marleau salary dump
• 2021: 3rd/2nd round pick for Campbell + Clifford

In a vacuum, maybe losing one of these picks isn't the end of the world. But now we're in a situation where we're maxed to the cap, our prospect pool is pretty thin, the Marlies aren't great anymore, and we haven't had a first round pick since 2018.

Then compound that with failing to trade JVR, Gardiner, Bozak, Barrie etc. to re-stock the cupboards. And we're left with a team we can't afford and no assets to supplement the losses.

The squandering assets starts from the top with Shanny throwing away draft pick compensation for Babcock and Lamoriello, only to replace them with their polar opposites. Just a brutally incompetent executive.

 

[sparxx87]

Bruins barely get by the Leafs last year, needing 7 games, after Kadri gets himself suspended for the SECOND straight year. Then the Bruins make it all the way to the finals.
No one knows how much Kadri cost the Leafs last year.
Kadri had to be traded, you don't keep a dog that keeps biting your children (hard!) do you?
However, Dubas does deserve to be called out for trading Kadri for Tyson Barrie, though I think Kerfoot has been fine.

But in this analogy, your dog wasn’t biting your children, it was biting the neighbours children for bulling your children.

 

[Scruffers]

Then compound that with failing to trade JVR, Gardiner, Bozak, Barrie etc. to re-stock the cupboards. And we're left with a team we can't afford and no assets to supplement the losses.

The squandering assets starts from the top with Shanny throwing away draft pick compensation for Babcock and Lamoriello, only to replace them with their polar opposites. Just a brutally incompetent executive.

I'm conflicted about JVR, because while his trade value would have been insane considering his 36-goal pace, it also would likely have hurt our chances in the 2018 playoffs. From that perspective, I can understand why management didn't want to trade him. However, I think we could have definitely landed a quality top-4 defenseman in a straight up trade for him considering that many teams would pay a premium for a 30+ goal winger on a low cap hit at the trade deadline. I'm leaning towards this being a case of bad asset management, but I can understand the argument against trading him.

Gardiner should have been traded before the 2019 season because he had just set a career high in points and we already had Dermott coming up + Sandin in the system. If we pull the trigger on the Muzzin deal earlier, maybe even during that offseason, our LD is improved much sooner. Bad asset management here too.

Bozak shouldn't have been allowed to walk, because he's exactly the kind of player we need right now.

Johnsson is another player we should have traded. He and Kapanen both put up 20 goal, 40+ point seasons. Perfect time to trade him was after 2018-19.

Definitely feels like management (moreso Dubas) seems unwilling to part with players they clearly should have traded. Imagine what this team would look like if we got some assets for JVR, Gardiner, and Johnsson, and if we didn't spend so many draft picks trying to address immediate needs.

 

[Ifittex il Verita]

Cody Ceci was originally projected as a well rounded two way defenseman, but his offensive development didn't really go as planned, so he's a "defensive defenseman" by default. Though strictly speaking, he's not really a great defensive presence either, he's just "stay at home" because he's not allowed to do anything else.

https://thehockeywriters.com/cody-c...t-prospect-profile-defending-nations-capital/

Brutal player assessment on Dubas' end really. He had Ceci slotted in a top 4 role the moment he was acquired from Ottawa.